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1.
Sci Rep ; 10(1): 12640, 2020 07 28.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-690878

ABSTRACT

Aedes-borne diseases, such as dengue and chikungunya, are responsible for more than 50 million infections worldwide every year, with an overall increase of 30-fold in the last 50 years, mainly due to city population growth, more frequent travels and ecological changes. In the United States of America, the vast majority of Aedes-borne infections are imported from endemic regions by travelers, who can become new sources of mosquito infection upon their return home if the exposed population is susceptible to the disease, and if suitable environmental conditions for the mosquitoes and the virus are present. Since the susceptibility of the human population can be determined via periodic monitoring campaigns, the environmental suitability for the presence of mosquitoes and viruses becomes one of the most important pieces of information for decision makers in the health sector. We present a next-generation monitoring and forecasting system for [Formula: see text]-borne diseases' environmental suitability (AeDES) of transmission in the conterminous United States and transboundary regions, using calibrated ento-epidemiological models, climate models and temperature observations. After analyzing the seasonal predictive skill of AeDES, we briefly consider the recent Zika epidemic, and the compound effects of the current Central American dengue outbreak happening during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, to illustrate how a combination of tailored deterministic and probabilistic forecasts can inform key prevention and control strategies .


Subject(s)
Aedes/virology , Epidemiological Monitoring , Mosquito Vectors/virology , Vector Borne Diseases/pathology , Animals , Betacoronavirus/isolation & purification , Climate , Coronavirus Infections/pathology , Coronavirus Infections/transmission , Coronavirus Infections/virology , Databases, Factual , Decision Making , Epidemiological Monitoring/veterinary , Humans , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/pathology , Pneumonia, Viral/transmission , Pneumonia, Viral/virology , Vector Borne Diseases/epidemiology , Vector Borne Diseases/virology
2.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep ; 69(34): 1173-1176, 2020 Aug 28.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-732628

ABSTRACT

State and local health departments in the United States are using various indicators to identify differences in rates of reported coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and severe COVID-19 outcomes, including hospitalizations and deaths. To inform mitigation efforts, on May 19, 2020, the Kentucky Department for Public Health (KDPH) implemented a reporting system to monitor five indicators of state-level COVID-19 status to assess the ability to safely reopen: 1) composite syndromic surveillance data, 2) the number of new COVID-19 cases,* 3) the number of COVID-19-associated deaths,† 4) health care capacity data, and 5) public health capacity for contact tracing (contact tracing capacity). Using standardized methods, KDPH compiles an indicator monitoring report (IMR) to provide daily analysis of these five indicators, which are combined with publicly available data into a user-friendly composite status that KDPH and local policy makers use to assess state-level COVID-19 hazard status. During May 19-July 15, 2020, Kentucky reported 12,742 COVID-19 cases, and 299 COVID-19-related deaths (1). The mean composite state-level hazard status during May 19-July 15 was 2.5 (fair to moderate). IMR review led to county-level hotspot identification (identification of counties meeting criteria for temporal increases in number of cases and incidence) and facilitated collaboration among KDPH and local authorities on decisions regarding mitigation efforts. Kentucky's IMR might easily be adopted by state and local health departments in other jurisdictions to guide decision-making for COVID-19 mitigation, response, and reopening.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control , Epidemiological Monitoring , Pandemics/prevention & control , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control , Coronavirus Infections/mortality , Coronavirus Infections/therapy , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Kentucky/epidemiology , Mortality/trends , Pneumonia, Viral/mortality , Pneumonia, Viral/therapy , Public Health Practice
4.
J Prev Med Hyg ; 61(2): E130-E136, 2020 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-721657

ABSTRACT

SARS-CoV-2 is a new form of ß-coronavirus that has been recently discovered and is responsible for COVID 19 pandemic. The earliest infection can be traced back to Wuhan, China. From there it has spread all over the world. Keeping in view the above perspective, an attempt is made in order to find out the epidemiological pattern of COVID 19 pandemic, if any, in different geo-climatological regions of the world in terms of case incidence and mortality. This study is also an endeavor to review and analyze the gradual changes of the genetic makeup of SARS-CoV from evolutionary and epidemiological perspectives. The raw data of COVID-19 cases and death incidences were collected from the World Health Organization (WHO) website from the time period: 1st April to 6th April, 2020. The data that are utilized here for general and Case fatality rate (CFR) based analysis. Western pacific region, European region and Americas have the greatest number of infected cases (P < 0.001); whereas deaths have been found to be significantly higher in Europe (P < 0.001). Total number of confirmed cases and deaths in south-east Asia are comparatively lower (P < 0.001). Case fatality rate (CFR) has also found significant for European region. SARS-CoV-2 is considered to be a strain of SARS-CoV that has a high rate of pathogenicity and transmissibility. Result indicated that the European region has been affected mostly for both cases and death incidences. The novel mutations in SARS-CoV-2 possibly increase the virus infectivity. Genetic heterogeneity of this virus within the human population might originate as the representatives of naturally selected virus quasispecies. In this context, the presence of the asymptomatic individuals could be a significant concern for SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology. Further studies are required to understand its genetic evolution and epidemiological significance.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus , Communicable Diseases, Emerging/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Epidemiological Monitoring , Europe/epidemiology , Global Health/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Pandemics , World Health Organization
5.
J Infect Dev Ctries ; 14(7): 691-695, 2020 07 31.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-721537

ABSTRACT

As the incidence of Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19) continues to rise, many countries have been seeking for medical assistance such as donation or procurement of laboratory test kits and strips. These consumables are largely intended for use in the laboratory investigations of COVID-19 cases, suspected contacts, asymptomatic persons and in discharging cured persons. Thus, this article was instigated to update and remind healthcare providers and policymakers (especially those in developing countries) on the principles of sample collections, storage, transportation, laboratory protocols and networks needed for appropriate public health response against COVID-19 pandemic in Africa and other developing countries. In addition, this article presents challenges that hinder adequate COVID-19 laboratory response and discuss some possible solutions that could ameliorate these constrains.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus , Clinical Laboratory Techniques/methods , Coronavirus Infections/diagnosis , Laboratories , Pneumonia, Viral/diagnosis , Specimen Handling , Africa/epidemiology , Betacoronavirus/chemistry , Betacoronavirus/genetics , Betacoronavirus/immunology , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/virology , Epidemiological Monitoring , Humans , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/virology , Public Health , Reverse Transcriptase Polymerase Chain Reaction/methods , Serologic Tests
8.
Lima; Perú. Poder Ejecutivo; 20200300. 4 p.
Non-conventional in Spanish | LILACS (Americas) | ID: covidwho-709713

ABSTRACT

El Decreto contiene las medidas extraordinarias, en materia económica y financiera, que permitan reforzar los sistemas de prevención, control, vigilancia y respuesta sanitaria, para la atención de la emergencia causada por el virus COVID-19.


Subject(s)
Communicable Disease Control , Coronavirus Infections , Decrees , Epidemiological Monitoring
10.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep ; 69(31): 1026-1030, 2020 Aug 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-694883

ABSTRACT

SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), is spread from person to person (1-3). Quarantine of exposed persons (contacts) for 14 days following their exposure reduces transmission (4-7). Contact tracing provides an opportunity to identify contacts, inform them of quarantine recommendations, and monitor their symptoms to promptly identify secondary COVID-19 cases (7,8). On March 12, 2020, Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Maine CDC) identified the first case of COVID-19 in the state. Because of resource constraints, including staffing, Maine CDC could not consistently monitor contacts, and automated technological solutions for monitoring contacts were explored. On May 14, 2020, Maine CDC began enrolling contacts of patients with reported COVID-19 into Sara Alert (MITRE Corporation, 2020),* an automated, web-based, symptom monitoring tool. After initial communication with Maine CDC staff members, enrolled contacts automatically received daily symptom questionnaires via their choice of e-mailed weblink, text message, texted weblink, or telephone call until completion of their quarantine. Epidemiologic investigations were conducted for enrollees who reported symptoms or received a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result. During May 14-June 26, Maine CDC enrolled 1,622 contacts of 614 COVID-19 patients; 190 (11.7%) eventually developed COVID-19, highlighting the importance of identifying, quarantining, and monitoring contacts of COVID-19 patients to limit spread. In Maine, symptom monitoring was not feasible without the use of an automated symptom monitoring tool. Using a tool that permitted enrollees to specify a method of symptom monitoring was well received, because the majority of persons monitored (96.4%) agreed to report using this system.


Subject(s)
Contact Tracing , Coronavirus Infections/diagnosis , Coronavirus Infections/therapy , Epidemiological Monitoring , Pneumonia, Viral/diagnosis , Pneumonia, Viral/therapy , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Automation , Child , Child, Preschool , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control , Female , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Maine/epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged , Pandemics/prevention & control , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control , Program Evaluation , Symptom Assessment/methods , Young Adult
13.
Washington; Organización Panamericana de la Salud; jul. 21, 2020. 5 p.
Non-conventional in Spanish | LILACS (Americas) | ID: covidwho-677295

ABSTRACT

El SARS-CoV-2 es un agente patógeno que causa la enfermedad por COVID-19, la cual fue notificada por primera vez en diciembre de 2019. Se cree que el SARS-CoV-2 fue originado de una fuente animal y posteriormente diseminado a la población humana. A pesar de que se han aislado virus genéticamente relacionados en murciélagos Rhinolophus, no se ha establecido el origen exacto de SARS-CoV-2 y la ruta de introducción de este virus a la población humana sigue siendo objeto de investigación.


Subject(s)
Humans , Animals , Pneumonia, Viral/transmission , Pneumonia, Viral/veterinary , Coronavirus Infections/transmission , Coronavirus Infections/veterinary , Epidemiological Monitoring/veterinary , Betacoronavirus/pathogenicity
14.
Washington; Organización Panamericana de la Salud; jul. 21, 2020. 9 p.
Non-conventional in Spanish | LILACS (Americas) | ID: covidwho-677292

ABSTRACT

A finales de enero de 2020, cuando el nuevo coronavirus comienza a expandirse por Europa, las autoridades de Colombia supieron que la enfermedad llegaría pronto al país y no solo pondría a prueba el sistema de salud, sino que los problemas históricos, sociales y económicos que lo agobian podían detonar y magnificar la tragedia humana. Sin perder tiempo, el gobierno colombiano, en cabeza del Presidente Iván Duque y los gobernadores y alcaldes de las ciudades principales, diseñó una estrategia de respuesta a la COVID-19 con instancias e instrumentos de seguimiento y evaluación como el Puesto de Mando Unificado (PMU), reunión de alto nivel en la que participa el gabinete ministerial, los directores de entidades nacionales a cargo de la emergencia, asesores de la Organización Panamericana de la Salud (OPS/OMS), las agencias del sistema de Naciones Unidas, representantes de la academia y del sector privado, y donde se toman decisiones para dar una respuesta unificada, que no deje a nadie atrás en la lucha contra la COVID-19. Este estudio de caso resalta las acciones que Colombia está tomando para preparar y responder a la pandemia con el apoyo de la OPS / OMS y sus socios, y demuestra cómo una respuesta coordinada y basada en orientaciones científicas permite salvar vidas.


Subject(s)
Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Health Systems , Quarantine/organization & administration , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Vulnerable Populations , Public Health Policy , Pandemics/prevention & control , Epidemiological Monitoring , Betacoronavirus , Colombia/epidemiology
16.
Viruses ; 12(8)2020 07 24.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-670832

ABSTRACT

The aim of this study is the characterization and genomic tracing by phylogenetic analyses of 59 new SARS-CoV-2 Italian isolates obtained from patients attending clinical centres in North and Central Italy until the end of April 2020. All but one of the newly-characterized genomes belonged to the lineage B.1, the most frequently identified in European countries, including Italy. Only a single sequence was found to belong to lineage B. A mean of 6 nucleotide substitutions per viral genome was observed, without significant differences between synonymous and non-synonymous mutations, indicating genetic drift as a major source for virus evolution. tMRCA estimation confirmed the probable origin of the epidemic between the end of January and the beginning of February with a rapid increase in the number of infections between the end of February and mid-March. Since early February, an effective reproduction number (Re) greater than 1 was estimated, which then increased reaching the peak of 2.3 in early March, confirming the circulation of the virus before the first COVID-19 cases were documented. Continuous use of state-of-the-art methods for molecular surveillance is warranted to trace virus circulation and evolution and inform effective prevention and containment of future SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus/classification , Betacoronavirus/genetics , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/virology , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/virology , Bayes Theorem , Betacoronavirus/isolation & purification , Epidemiological Monitoring , Genome, Viral , Humans , Italy/epidemiology , Likelihood Functions , Molecular Epidemiology , Molecular Typing , Mutation , Phylogeny , Time Factors , Whole Genome Sequencing
17.
Acta Biomed ; 91(9-S): 29-33, 2020 07 20.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-670002

ABSTRACT

On 18th February the first Italian case of Coronavirus Induced Disease 2019 (COVID19) due to secondary transmission outside China was identified in Codogno, Lombardia region. In the following days the number of cases started to rise not only in Lombardia but also in other Italian regions, although Lombardia remained and it is still the most affected region in Italy. At the moment, 234801 cases have been identified in Italy, out of which 90070 in Lombardia region. The (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2) SARS CoV 2 outbreak in Italy has been characterized by a massive spread of news coming from both official and unofficial sources leading what has been defined as infodemia, an over-abundance of information - some accurate and some not - that has made hard for people to find trustworthy sources and reliable guidance needed. Infodemia on SARS CoV 2 created the perfect field to build uncertainty in the population, which was scared and not prepared to face this outbreak. It is understandable how the rapid increase of the cases' number , the massive spread of news and the adoption of laws to face this outbreak led to a feeling of anxiety in the population whose everyday life changed very quickly. A way to assess the dynamic burden of social anxiety is a context analysis of major social networks activities over the Internet. To this aim Twitter represents a possible ideal tool since the focused role of the tweets according to the more urgent needs of information and communication rather than general aspects of social projection and debate as in the case of Facebook, which could provide slower responses for the fast individual and social context evolution dynamics.  Aim of the paper is to analyse the most common reasons for calling and outcomes. Furthermore, the joint analysis with Twitter trends related to emergency services might be useful to understand possible correlations with epidemic trends and predict new outbreaks.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Emergency Service, Hospital , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Social Networking , Disease Outbreaks , Epidemiological Monitoring , Humans , Italy/epidemiology , Pandemics
18.
JAMA Netw Open ; 3(7): e2016099, 2020 07 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-665306

ABSTRACT

Importance: Local variation in the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) across the United States has not been well studied. Objective: To examine the association of county-level factors with variation in the SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number over time. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included 211 counties, representing state capitals and cities with at least 100 000 residents and including 178 892 208 US residents, in 46 states and the District of Columbia between February 25, 2020, and April 23, 2020. Exposures: Social distancing, measured by percentage change in visits to nonessential businesses; population density; and daily wet-bulb temperatures. Main Outcomes and Measures: Instantaneous reproduction number (Rt), or cases generated by each incident case at a given time, estimated from daily case incidence data. Results: The 211 counties contained 178 892 208 of 326 289 971 US residents (54.8%). Median (interquartile range) population density was 1022.7 (471.2-1846.0) people per square mile. The mean (SD) peak reduction in visits to nonessential business between April 6 and April 19, as the country was sheltering in place, was 68.7% (7.9%). Median (interquartile range) daily wet-bulb temperatures were 7.5 (3.8-12.8) °C. Median (interquartile range) case incidence and fatality rates per 100 000 people were approximately 10 times higher for the top decile of densely populated counties (1185.2 [313.2-1891.2] cases; 43.7 [10.4-106.7] deaths) than for counties in the lowest density quartile (121.4 [87.8-175.4] cases; 4.2 [1.9-8.0] deaths). Mean (SD) Rt in the first 2 weeks was 5.7 (2.5) in the top decile compared with 3.1 (1.2) in the lowest quartile. In multivariable analysis, a 50% decrease in visits to nonessential businesses was associated with a 45% decrease in Rt (95% CI, 43%-49%). From a relative Rt at 0 °C of 2.13 (95% CI, 1.89-2.40), relative Rt decreased to a minimum as temperatures warmed to 11 °C, increased between 11 and 20 °C (1.61; 95% CI, 1.42-1.84) and then declined again at temperatures greater than 20 °C. With a 70% reduction in visits to nonessential business, 202 counties (95.7%) were estimated to fall below a threshold Rt of 1.0, including 17 of 21 counties (81.0%) in the top density decile and 52 of 53 counties (98.1%) in the lowest density quartile.2. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, social distancing, lower population density, and temperate weather were associated with a decreased Rt for SARS-CoV-2 in counties across the United States. These associations could inform selective public policy planning in communities during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic.


Subject(s)
Basic Reproduction Number , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Population Density , Social Distance , Temperature , Betacoronavirus , Coronavirus Infections/transmission , Disease Transmission, Infectious/prevention & control , Epidemiological Monitoring , Humans , Incidence , Pneumonia, Viral/transmission , United States/epidemiology
20.
Nat Rev Microbiol ; 18(9): 478, 2020 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-662456
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