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1.
Euro Surveill ; 27(1)2022 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1613510

ABSTRACT

We estimate the potential remaining COVID-19 hospitalisation and death burdens in 19 European countries by estimating the proportion of each country's population that has acquired immunity to severe disease through infection or vaccination. Our results suggest many European countries could still face high burdens of hospitalisations and deaths, particularly those with lower vaccination coverage, less historical transmission and/or older populations. Continued non-pharmaceutical interventions and efforts to achieve high vaccination coverage are required in these countries to limit severe COVID-19 outcomes.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Europe/epidemiology , Hospitalization , Humans , SARS-CoV-2 , Vaccination
3.
Crit Care ; 26(1): 11, 2022 01 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1607559

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Recent multicenter studies identified COVID-19 as a risk factor for invasive pulmonary aspergillosis (IPA). However, no large multicenter study has compared the incidence of IPA between COVID-19 and influenza patients. OBJECTIVES: To determine the incidence of putative IPA in critically ill SARS-CoV-2 patients, compared with influenza patients. METHODS: This study was a planned ancillary analysis of the coVAPid multicenter retrospective European cohort. Consecutive adult patients requiring invasive mechanical ventilation for > 48 h for SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia or influenza pneumonia were included. The 28-day cumulative incidence of putative IPA, based on Blot definition, was the primary outcome. IPA incidence was estimated using the Kalbfleisch and Prentice method, considering extubation (dead or alive) within 28 days as competing event. RESULTS: A total of 1047 patients were included (566 in the SARS-CoV-2 group and 481 in the influenza group). The incidence of putative IPA was lower in SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia group (14, 2.5%) than in influenza pneumonia group (29, 6%), adjusted cause-specific hazard ratio (cHR) 3.29 (95% CI 1.53-7.02, p = 0.0006). When putative IPA and Aspergillus respiratory tract colonization were combined, the incidence was also significantly lower in the SARS-CoV-2 group, as compared to influenza group (4.1% vs. 10.2%), adjusted cHR 3.21 (95% CI 1.88-5.46, p < 0.0001). In the whole study population, putative IPA was associated with significant increase in 28-day mortality rate, and length of ICU stay, compared with colonized patients, or those with no IPA or Aspergillus colonization. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the incidence of putative IPA was low. Its incidence was significantly lower in patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia than in those with influenza pneumonia. Clinical trial registration The study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT04359693 .


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Influenza, Human , Intubation , Invasive Pulmonary Aspergillosis , Adult , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/therapy , Europe/epidemiology , Humans , Incidence , Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Influenza, Human/therapy , Invasive Pulmonary Aspergillosis/epidemiology , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2
5.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 24390, 2021 12 22.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1585778

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates the role of large outbreaks on the persistence of Covid-19 over time. Using data from 650 European regions in 14 countries, I first show that winter school holidays in late February/early March 2020 (weeks 8, 9 and 10) led to large regional outbreaks of Covid-19 in the spring with the spread being 60% and up-to over 90% higher compared to regions with earlier school holidays. While the impact of these initial large outbreaks fades away over the summer months, it systematically reappears from the fall as regions with school holidays in weeks 8, 9 and 10 had 30-70% higher spread. This suggests that following a large outbreak, there is a strong element of underlying (latent) regional persistence of Covid-19. The strong degree of persistence highlights the long-term benefits of effective (initial) containment policies, as once a large outbreak has occurred, Covid-19 persists. This result emphasizes the need for vaccinations against Covid-19 in regions that have recently experienced large outbreaks but are well below herd-immunity, to avoid a new surge of cases.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/transmission , COVID-19/virology , Disease Outbreaks , Europe/epidemiology , Holidays , Humans , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Schools , Urbanization
6.
PLoS One ; 16(12): e0261776, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1581731

ABSTRACT

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 has resulted in a transition from physical education to online learning, leading to a collapse of the established educational order and a wisdom test for the education governance system. As a country seriously affected by the pandemic, the health of the Indian higher education system urgently requires assessment to achieve sustainable development and maximize educational externalities. This research systematically proposes a health assessment model from four perspectives, including educational volume, efficiency, equality, and sustainability, by employing the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution Model, Principal Component Analysis, DEA-Tobit Model, and Augmented Solow Model. Empirical results demonstrate that India has high efficiency and an absolute health score in the higher education system through multiple comparisons between India and the other selected countries while having certain deficiencies in equality and sustainability. Additionally, single-target and multiple-target path are simultaneously proposed to enhance the Indian current education system. The multiple-target approach of the India-China-Japan-Europe-USA process is more feasible to achieve sustainable development, which would improve the overall health score from .351 to .716. This finding also reveals that the changes are relatively complex and would take 91.5 years considering the relationship between economic growth rates and crucial indicators. Four targeted policies are suggested for each catching-up period, including expanding and increasing the social funding sources, striving for government expenditure support to improve infrastructures, imposing gender equality in education, and accelerating the construction of high-quality teachers.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Education, Distance/methods , Educational Status , Models, Theoretical , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2 , Sustainable Development , COVID-19/virology , China/epidemiology , Europe/epidemiology , Humans , India/epidemiology , Japan/epidemiology , Principal Component Analysis/methods , United States/epidemiology
7.
Int J Environ Res Public Health ; 19(1)2021 Dec 31.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1580772

ABSTRACT

Unrealistic optimism, the underestimation of one's risk of experiencing harm, has been investigated extensively to understand better and predict behavioural responses to health threats. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, a relative dearth of research existed in this domain regarding epidemics, which is surprising considering that this optimistic bias has been associated with a lack of engagement in protective behaviours critical in fighting twenty-first-century, emergent, infectious diseases. The current study addresses this gap in the literature by investigating whether people demonstrated optimism bias during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe, how this changed over time, and whether unrealistic optimism was negatively associated with protective measures. Taking advantage of a pre-existing international participative influenza surveillance network (n = 12,378), absolute and comparative unrealistic optimism were measured at three epidemic stages (pre-, early, peak), and across four countries-France, Italy, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. Despite differences in culture and health response, similar patterns were observed across all four countries. The prevalence of unrealistic optimism appears to be influenced by the particular epidemic context. Paradoxically, whereas absolute unrealistic optimism decreased over time, comparative unrealistic optimism increased, suggesting that whilst people became increasingly accurate in assessing their personal risk, they nonetheless overestimated that for others. Comparative unrealistic optimism was negatively associated with the adoption of protective behaviours, which is worrying, given that these preventive measures are critical in tackling the spread and health burden of COVID-19. It is hoped these findings will inspire further research into sociocognitive mechanisms involved in risk appraisal.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemics , Europe/epidemiology , Humans , Optimism , SARS-CoV-2
8.
J Clin Invest ; 131(24)2021 Dec 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1573960

ABSTRACT

In this editorial, we describe the experience of the JCI editors during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our goal is to share how we operated during the pandemic, recount how the JCI contributed to the response, highlight some of the major papers we published on SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19, and impart our insights in the hope that these are helpful to journal editors that may need to deal with similar types of crises in the future.


Subject(s)
Biomedical Research/trends , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/therapy , Publications , SARS-CoV-2 , China/epidemiology , Europe/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Male , Motivation , Pandemics , Public Health , Quarantine , Social Isolation , United States/epidemiology
9.
J Prev Med Hyg ; 62(3): E625-E627, 2021 Sep.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1573927

ABSTRACT

Background: Cases of COVID-19 infection have increased sharply in Europe since August 2020, and the WHO recommend the use of respirators in situations where keeping distance is not possible. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of the use of respirators on infection cases and viral deaths in European countries. Methods: COVID-19 cases and related deaths in 29 countries relative to population were searched through the WHO database on 15.10.2020. Recent 14-day cases in relation to the population were retrieved from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control's website, covering the period from 1 to 14 October 2020. Information related to the use of respirators was retrieved from the IHME database of the University of Washington at time point, 1.6.2020. Results: The proportion of people using of respirators at 1.6.2020 correlate negatively to the reported cases of disease (Rs = -0.528) and to deaths (Rs = -0.553). No significant correlation was found for recent cases or mortality. Countries with at least 60% respirator use did not differ from other countries. Conclusion: Long-term use of respirators appears to reduce disease incidence and death in the population.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Europe/epidemiology , Humans , Pandemics/prevention & control , SARS-CoV-2 , Ventilators, Mechanical
10.
Gac Med Mex ; 157(3): 271-276, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1535084

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: In December 2019, a new coronavirus emerged in Wuhan, China, which has become a global health problem. OBJECTIVEs: To estimate how many daily COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 population could have been avoided if each one of five restrictive measures had been implemented at the time the first case was diagnosed, and to estimate a multiple linear regression model predictive of the number of deaths per 100,000 population. METHODS: A simple linear regression was performed between the days elapsed since the first COVID-19 diagnosed case, implementation of each one of the five restrictive measures carried out by the 39 European studied countries, the number of hospital beds per 1,000 population (independent variables) and the number of COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 population. RESULTS: For each day elapsed from the first COVID-19 reported case to the adoption of restrictive measures, between 0.611 (p = 0.004) and 1.863 (p = 0.000) patients died per 100,000 population, depending on the implemented measure. CONCLUSIONS: Restrictive measures and social distancing, as well as promptness of their implementation, are necessary for achieving a decrease in COVID-19 infections and mortality.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/prevention & control , Physical Distancing , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/mortality , Europe/epidemiology , Humans , Linear Models , Time Factors
11.
Euro Surveill ; 26(46)2021 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1526749

ABSTRACT

We present a European Union/European Economic Area-wide overview of the changes in consumption of antibacterials for systemic use (ATC J01) in the community between 2019 and 2020 as reported to the European Surveillance of Antimicrobial Consumption Network. Overall antibiotic consumption decreased by 18.3% between 2019 and 2020, the largest annual decrease in the network's two-decade history. We observed a strong association between the level of community antibiotic consumption in 2019 and the size of the decrease between 2019 and 2020.


Subject(s)
Anti-Bacterial Agents , COVID-19 , Anti-Bacterial Agents/therapeutic use , Drug Utilization , Europe/epidemiology , European Union , Humans , Pandemics/prevention & control , SARS-CoV-2
12.
Transbound Emerg Dis ; 68(6): 3349-3359, 2021 Nov.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1526423

ABSTRACT

The influenza D virus (IDV) was first identified and characterized in 2011. Considering the virus' zoonotic potential, its genome nature (segmented RNA virus), its worldwide circulation in livestock and its role in bovine respiratory disease, an increased interest is given to IDV. However, few data are available on drivers of emergence of IDV. We first listed fifty possible drivers of emergence of IDV in ruminants and swine. As recently carried out for COVID-19 in pets (Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, 2020), a scoring system was developed per driver and scientific experts (N = 28) were elicited to (a) allocate a score to each driver, (b) weight the drivers' scores within each domain and (c) weight the different domains among themselves. An overall weighted score was calculated per driver, and drivers were ranked in decreasing order. Drivers with comparable likelihoods to play a role in the emergence of IDV in ruminants and swine in Europe were grouped using a regression tree analysis. Finally, the robustness of the expert elicitation was verified. Eight drivers were ranked with the highest probability to play a key role in the emergence of IDV: current species specificity of the causing agent of the disease; influence of (il)legal movements of live animals (ruminants, swine) from neighbouring/European Union member states and from third countries for the disease to (re-)emerge in a given country; detection of emergence; current knowledge of the pathogen; vaccine availability; animal density; and transport vehicles of live animals. As there is still limited scientific knowledge on the topic, expert elicitation of knowledge and multi-criteria decision analysis, in addition to clustering and sensitivity analyses, are very important to prioritize future studies, starting from the top eight drivers. The present methodology could be applied to other emerging animal diseases.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Influenza, Human , Orthomyxoviridae Infections , Swine Diseases , Animals , COVID-19/veterinary , Cattle , Europe/epidemiology , Humans , Orthomyxoviridae Infections/epidemiology , Orthomyxoviridae Infections/prevention & control , Orthomyxoviridae Infections/veterinary , SARS-CoV-2 , Swine , Swine Diseases/epidemiology , Swine Diseases/prevention & control
15.
Euro Surveill ; 26(45)2021 Nov.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1515522

ABSTRACT

We report a rapid increase in enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) infections, with 139 cases reported from eight European countries between 31 July and 14 October 2021. This upsurge is in line with the seasonality of EV-D68 and was presumably stimulated by the widespread reopening after COVID-19 lockdown. Most cases were identified in September, but more are to be expected in the coming months. Reinforcement of clinical awareness, diagnostic capacities and surveillance of EV-D68 is urgently needed in Europe.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Enterovirus D, Human , Enterovirus Infections , Enterovirus , Myelitis , Respiratory Tract Infections , Communicable Disease Control , Disease Outbreaks , Enterovirus D, Human/genetics , Enterovirus Infections/diagnosis , Enterovirus Infections/epidemiology , Europe/epidemiology , Humans , Myelitis/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2
16.
Addiction ; 116(12): 3369-3380, 2021 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1504189

ABSTRACT

AIMS: To investigate changes in alcohol consumption during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe as well as its associations with income and experiences of distress related to the pandemic. DESIGN: Cross-sectional on-line survey conducted between 24 April and 22 July 2020. SETTING: Twenty-one European countries. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 31 964 adults reporting past-year drinking. MEASUREMENTS: Changes in alcohol consumption were measured by asking respondents about changes over the previous month in their drinking frequency, the quantity they consumed and incidence of heavy episodic drinking events. Individual indicators were combined into an aggregated consumption-change score and scaled to a possible range of -1 to +1. Using this score as the outcome, multi-level linear regressions tested changes in overall drinking, taking into account sampling weights and baseline alcohol consumption [Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test (AUDIT-C)] and country of residence serving as random intercept. Similar models were conducted for each single consumption-change indicator. FINDINGS: The aggregated consumption-change score indicated an average decrease in alcohol consumption of -0.14 [95% confidence interval (CI) = -0.18, -0.10]. Statistically significant decreases in consumption were found in all countries, except Ireland (-0.08, 95% CI = -0.17, 0.01) and the United Kingdom (+0.10, 95% CI = 0.03, 0.17). Decreases in drinking were mainly driven by a reduced frequency of heavy episodic drinking events (-0.17, 95% CI = -0.20, -0.14). Declines in consumption were less marked among those with low- or average incomes and those experiencing distress. CONCLUSIONS: On average, alcohol consumption appears to have declined during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. Both reduced availability of alcohol and increased distress may have affected consumption, although the former seems to have had a greater impact in terms of immediate effects.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemics , Adult , Alcohol Drinking/epidemiology , Cross-Sectional Studies , Europe/epidemiology , Humans , SARS-CoV-2
17.
PLoS One ; 16(11): e0250541, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1496343

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: A year following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, new infections and deaths continue to increase in Europe. Serological studies, through providing evidence of past infection, can aid understanding of the population dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infection. OBJECTIVES: This systematic review of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence studies in Europe was undertaken to inform public health strategies including vaccination, that aim to accelerate population immunity. METHODS: We searched the databases Web of Science, MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and grey literature sources for studies reporting seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Europe published between 01/12/2019-30/09/20. We provide a narrative synthesis of included studies. Studies were categorized into subgroups including healthcare workers (HCWs), community, outbreaks, pregnancy and children/school. Due to heterogeneity in other subgroups, we only performed a random effects meta-analysis of the seroprevalence amongst HCWs stratified by their country. RESULTS: 115 studies were included spanning 17 European countries, that estimated the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 from samples obtained between November 2019 -August 2020. A total of 54/115 studies included HCWs with a reported seroprevalence among HCWs ranging from 0.7% to 45.3%, which did not differ significantly by country. In community studies significant heterogeneity was reported in the seroprevalence between different age groups and the majority of studies reported there was no significant difference by gender. CONCLUSION: This review demonstrates a wide heterogeneity in reported seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies between populations. Continued evaluation of seroprevalence is required to understand the impact of public health measures and inform interventions including vaccination programmes.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/immunology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Europe/epidemiology , Humans , Pandemics , Public Health , Seroepidemiologic Studies
18.
Genome Med ; 13(1): 169, 2021 10 28.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1496206

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Québec was the Canadian province most impacted by COVID-19, with 401,462 cases as of September 24th, 2021, and 11,347 deaths due mostly to a very severe first pandemic wave. In April 2020, we assembled the Coronavirus Sequencing in Québec (CoVSeQ) consortium to sequence SARS-CoV-2 genomes in Québec to track viral introduction events and transmission within the province. METHODS: Using genomic epidemiology, we investigated the arrival of SARS-CoV-2 to Québec. We report 2921 high-quality SARS-CoV-2 genomes in the context of > 12,000 publicly available genomes sampled globally over the first pandemic wave (up to June 1st, 2020). By combining phylogenetic and phylodynamic analyses with epidemiological data, we quantify the number of introduction events into Québec, identify their origins, and characterize the spatiotemporal spread of the virus. RESULTS: Conservatively, we estimated approximately 600 independent introduction events, the majority of which happened from spring break until 2 weeks after the Canadian border closed for non-essential travel. Subsequent mass repatriations did not generate large transmission lineages (> 50 sequenced cases), likely due to mandatory quarantine measures in place at the time. Consistent with common spring break and "snowbird" destinations, most of the introductions were inferred to have originated from Europe via the Americas. Once introduced into Québec, viral lineage sizes were overdispersed, with a few lineages giving rise to most infections. Consistent with founder effects, the earliest lineages to arrive tended to spread most successfully. Fewer than 100 viral introductions arrived during spring break, of which 7-12 led to the largest transmission lineages of the first wave (accounting for 52-75% of all sequenced infections). These successful transmission lineages dispersed widely across the province. Transmission lineage size was greatly reduced after March 11th, when a quarantine order for returning travellers was enacted. While this suggests the effectiveness of early public health measures, the biggest transmission lineages had already been ignited prior to this order. CONCLUSIONS: Combined, our results reinforce how, in the absence of tight travel restrictions or quarantine measures, fewer than 100 viral introductions in a week can ensure the establishment of extended transmission chains.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/transmission , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/virology , Canada/epidemiology , Europe/epidemiology , Genome, Viral , Humans , Molecular Epidemiology , Pandemics , Phylogeny , Public Health , Quebec/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Travel
19.
BMC Med ; 19(1): 254, 2021 09 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1496170

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 dynamics are driven by human behaviour. Social contact data are of utmost importance in the context of transmission models of close-contact infections. METHODS: Using online representative panels of adults reporting on their own behaviour as well as parents reporting on the behaviour of one of their children, we collect contact mixing (CoMix) behaviour in various phases of the COVID-19 pandemic in over 20 European countries. We provide these timely, repeated observations using an online platform: SOCRATES-CoMix. In addition to providing cleaned datasets to researchers, the platform allows users to extract contact matrices that can be stratified by age, type of day, intensity of the contact and gender. These observations provide insights on the relative impact of recommended or imposed social distance measures on contacts and can inform mathematical models on epidemic spread. CONCLUSION: These data provide essential information for policymakers to balance non-pharmaceutical interventions, economic activity, mental health and wellbeing, during vaccine rollout.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemics , Adult , Child , Europe/epidemiology , Humans , Models, Theoretical , SARS-CoV-2
20.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 21068, 2021 10 26.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1493208

ABSTRACT

Since its emergence in late 2019, the diffusion of SARS-CoV-2 is associated with the evolution of its viral genome. The co-occurrence of specific amino acid changes, collectively named 'virus variant', requires scrutiny (as variants may hugely impact the agent's transmission, pathogenesis, or antigenicity); variant evolution is studied using phylogenetics. Yet, never has this problem been tackled by digging into data with ad hoc analysis techniques. Here we show that the emergence of variants can in fact be traced through data-driven methods, further capitalizing on the value of large collections of SARS-CoV-2 sequences. For all countries with sufficient data, we compute weekly counts of amino acid changes, unveil time-varying clusters of changes with similar-rapidly growing-dynamics, and then follow their evolution. Our method succeeds in timely associating clusters to variants of interest/concern, provided their change composition is well characterized. This allows us to detect variants' emergence, rise, peak, and eventual decline under competitive pressure of another variant. Our early warning system, exclusively relying on deposited sequences, shows the power of big data in this context, and concurs to calling for the wide spreading of public SARS-CoV-2 genome sequencing for improved surveillance and control of the COVID-19 pandemic.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19/therapy , COVID-19/virology , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , Amino Acids/metabolism , Cluster Analysis , Computational Biology/methods , Data Mining , Europe/epidemiology , Genome, Viral , Humans , Japan/epidemiology , Phylogeny , Time Factors , United States/epidemiology
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