Proteolytic Processing of the Coronavirus Replicase Nonstructural Protein 14 Exonuclease Is Not Required for Virus Replication but Alters RNA Synthesis and Viral Fitness.

Coronaviruses (CoVs) initiate replication by translation of the positive-sense RNA genome into the replicase polyproteins connecting 16 nonstructural protein domains (nsp1-16), which are subsequently processed by viral proteases to yield mature nsp. For the betacoronavirus murine hepatitis virus (MHV), total inhibition of translation or proteolytic processing of replicase polyproteins results in rapid cessation of RNA synthesis. The nsp5-3CLpro (Mpro) processes nsps7-16, which assemble into functional replication-transcription complexes (RTCs), including the enzymatic nsp12-RdRp and nsp14-exoribonuclease (ExoN)/N7-methyltransferase. The nsp14-ExoN activity mediates RNA-dependent RNA proofreading, high-fidelity RNA synthesis, and replication. To date, the solved partial RTC structures, biochemistry, and models use or assume completely processed, mature nsp. Here, we demonstrate that in MHV, engineered deletion of the cleavage sites between nsp13-14 and nsp14-15 allowed recovery of replication-competent virus. Compared to wild-type (WT) MHV, the nsp13-14 and nsp14-15 cleavage deletion mutants demonstrated delayed replication kinetics, impaired genome production, altered abundance and patterns of recombination, and impaired competitive fitness. Further, the nsp13-14 and nsp14-15 mutant viruses demonstrated mutation frequencies that were significantly higher than with the WT. The results demonstrate that cleavage of nsp13-14 or nsp14-15 is not required for MHV viability and that functions of the RTC/nsp14-ExoN are impaired when assembled with noncleaved intermediates. These data will inform future genetic, structural, biochemical, and modeling studies of coronavirus RTCs and nsp 13, 14, and 15 and may reveal new approaches for inhibition or attenuation of CoV infection. IMPORTANCE Coronavirus replication requires proteolytic maturation of the nonstructural replicase proteins to form the replication-transcription complex. Coronavirus replication-transcription complex models assume mature subunits; however, mechanisms of coronavirus maturation and replicase complex formation have yet to be defined. Here, we show that for the coronavirus murine hepatitis virus, cleavage between the nonstructural replicase proteins nsp13-14 and nsp14-15 is not required for replication but does alter RNA synthesis and recombination. These results shed new light on the requirements for coronavirus maturation and replication-transcription complex assembly, and they may reveal novel therapeutic targets and strategies for attenuation.

Analysis of 6.4 million SARS-CoV-2 genomes identifies mutations associated with fitness.

Repeated emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants with increased fitness underscores the value of rapid detection and characterization of new lineages. We have developed PyR0, a hierarchical Bayesian multinomial logistic regression model that infers relative prevalence of all viral lineages across geographic regions, detects lineages increasing in prevalence, and identifies mutations relevant to fitness. Applying PyR0 to all publicly available SARS-CoV-2 genomes, we identify numerous substitutions that increase fitness, including previously identified spike mutations and many nonspike mutations within the nucleocapsid and nonstructural proteins. PyR0 forecasts growth of new lineages from their mutational profile, ranks the fitness of lineages as new sequences become available, and prioritizes mutations of biological and public health concern for functional characterization.

Forecasting emergence of COVID-19 variants of concern.

We consider whether one can forecast the emergence of variants of concern in the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak and similar pandemics. We explore methods of population genetics and identify key relevant principles in both deterministic and stochastic models of spread of infectious disease. Finally, we demonstrate that fitness variation, defined as a trait for which an increase in its value is associated with an increase in net Darwinian fitness if the value of other traits are held constant, is a strong indicator of imminent transition in the viral population.

Long-term adaptation following influenza A virus host shifts results in increased within-host viral fitness due to higher replication rates, broader dissemination within the respiratory epithelium and reduced tissue damage.

The mechanisms and consequences of genome evolution on viral fitness following host shifts are poorly understood. In addition, viral fitness -the ability of an organism to reproduce and survive- is multifactorial and thus difficult to quantify. Influenza A viruses (IAVs) circulate broadly among wild birds and have jumped into and become endemic in multiple mammalian hosts, including humans, pigs, dogs, seals, and horses. H3N8 equine influenza virus (EIV) is an endemic virus of horses that originated in birds and has been circulating uninterruptedly in equine populations since the early 1960s. Here, we used EIV to quantify changes in infection phenotype associated to viral fitness due to genome-wide changes acquired during long-term adaptation. We performed experimental infections of two mammalian cell lines and equine tracheal explants using the earliest H3N8 EIV isolated (A/equine/Uruguay/63 [EIV/63]), and A/equine/Ohio/2003 (EIV/2003), a monophyletic descendant of EIV/63 isolated 40 years after the emergence of H3N8 EIV. We show that EIV/2003 exhibits increased resistance to interferon, enhanced viral replication, and a more efficient cell-to-cell spread in cells and tissues. Transcriptomics analyses revealed virus-specific responses to each virus, mainly affecting host immunity and inflammation. Image analyses of infected equine respiratory explants showed that despite replicating at higher levels and spreading over larger areas of the respiratory epithelium, EIV/2003 induced milder lesions compared to EIV/63, suggesting that adaptation led to reduced tissue pathogenicity. Our results reveal previously unknown links between virus genotype and the host response to infection, providing new insights on the relationship between virus evolution and fitness.

Impact of ADAR-induced editing of minor viral RNA populations on replication and transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

Adenosine deaminases acting on RNA (ADAR) are RNA-editing enzymes that may restrict viral infection. We have utilized deep sequencing to determine adenosine to guanine (A→G) mutations, signifying ADAR activity, in clinical samples retrieved from 93 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-infected patients in the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. A→G mutations were detected in 0.035% (median) of RNA residues and were predominantly nonsynonymous. These mutations were rarely detected in the major viral population but were abundant in minor viral populations in which A→G was more prevalent than any other mutation (P < 0.001). The A→G substitutions accumulated in the spike protein gene at positions corresponding to amino acids 505 to 510 in the receptor binding motif and at amino acids 650 to 655. The frequency of A→G mutations in minor viral populations was significantly associated with low viral load (P < 0.001). We additionally analyzed A→G mutations in 288,247 SARS-CoV-2 major (consensus) sequences representing the dominant viral population. The A→G mutations observed in minor viral populations in the initial patient cohort were increasingly detected in European consensus sequences between March and June 2020 (P < 0.001) followed by a decline of these mutations in autumn and early winter (P < 0.001). We propose that ADAR-induced deamination of RNA is a significant source of mutated SARS-CoV-2 and hypothesize that the degree of RNA deamination may determine or reflect viral fitness and infectivity.

Mutations that adapt SARS-CoV-2 to mink or ferret do not increase fitness in the human airway.

SARS-CoV-2 has a broad mammalian species tropism infecting humans, cats, dogs, and farmed mink. Since the start of the 2019 pandemic, several reverse zoonotic outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 have occurred in mink, one of which reinfected humans and caused a cluster of infections in Denmark. Here we investigate the molecular basis of mink and ferret adaptation and demonstrate the spike mutations Y453F, F486L, and N501T all specifically adapt SARS-CoV-2 to use mustelid ACE2. Furthermore, we risk assess these mutations and conclude mink-adapted viruses are unlikely to pose an increased threat to humans, as Y453F attenuates the virus replication in human cells and all three mink adaptations have minimal antigenic impact. Finally, we show that certain SARS-CoV-2 variants emerging from circulation in humans may naturally have a greater propensity to infect mustelid hosts and therefore these species should continue to be surveyed for reverse zoonotic infections.

Role of Q675H Mutation in Improving SARS-CoV-2 Spike Interaction with the Furin Binding Pocket.

Genotype screening was implemented in Italy and showed a significant prevalence of new SARS-CoV-2 mutants carrying Q675H mutation, near the furin cleavage site of spike protein. Currently, this mutation, which is expressed on different SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating worldwide, has not been thoughtfully investigated. Therefore, we performed phylogenetic and biocomputational analysis to better understand SARS-CoV-2 Q675H mutants' evolutionary relationships with other circulating lineages and Q675H function in its molecular context. Our studies reveal that Q675H spike mutation is the result of parallel evolution because it arose independently in separate evolutionary clades. In silico data show that the Q675H mutation gives rise to a hydrogen-bonds network in the spike polar region. This results in an optimized directionality of arginine residues involved in interaction of spike with the furin binding pocket, thus improving proteolytic exposure of the viral protein. Furin was predicted to have a greater affinity for Q675H than Q675 substrate conformations. As a consequence, Q675H mutation could confer a fitness advantage to SARS-CoV-2 by promoting a more efficient viral entry. Interestingly, here we have shown that Q675H spike mutation is documented in all the VOCs. This finding highlights that VOCs are still evolving to enhance viral fitness and to adapt to the human host. At the same time, it may suggest Q675H spike mutation involvement in SARS-CoV-2 evolution.

Nucleocapsid mutations R203K/G204R increase the infectivity, fitness, and virulence of SARS-CoV-2.

Previous work found that the co-occurring mutations R203K/G204R on the SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid (N) protein are increasing in frequency among emerging variants of concern or interest. Through a combination of in silico analyses, this study demonstrates that R203K/G204R are adaptive, while large-scale phylogenetic analyses indicate that R203K/G204R associate with the emergence of the high-transmissibility SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7. Competition experiments suggest that the 203K/204R variants possess a replication advantage over the preceding R203/G204 variants, possibly related to ribonucleocapsid (RNP) assembly. Moreover, the 203K/204R virus shows increased infectivity in human lung cells and hamsters. Accordingly, we observe a positive association between increased COVID-19 severity and sample frequency of 203K/204R. Our work suggests that the 203K/204R mutations contribute to the increased transmission and virulence of select SARS-CoV-2 variants. In addition to mutations in the spike protein, mutations in the nucleocapsid protein are important for viral spreading during the pandemic.

Animal-to-Human Viral Transitions: Is SARS-CoV-2 an Evolutionarily Successful One?

Transmission of viruses from one species to another is not unusual in nature. Despite this, evolutionarily successful transmissions are rare. Such events can cause pandemics and are followed by host-virus coevolution procedures that can increase the fitness potential of viruses. In this perspective article, I recognize eight main types of trans-species viral transmission. I consider two of them as evolutionarily successful, explaining why coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 could be one of them.

D614G Substitution of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein Increases Syncytium Formation and Virus Titer via Enhanced Furin-Mediated Spike Cleavage.

Since the D614G substitution in the spike (S) protein of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged, the variant strain has undergone a rapid expansion to become the most abundant strain worldwide. Therefore, this substitution may provide an advantage for viral spreading. To explore the mechanism, we analyzed 18 viral isolates containing S proteins with either G614 or D614 (S-G614 and S-D614, respectively). The plaque assay showed a significantly higher virus titer in S-G614 than in S-D614 isolates. We further found increased cleavage of the S protein at the furin substrate site, a key event that promotes syncytium formation, in S-G614 isolates. The enhancement of the D614G substitution in the cleavage of the S protein and in syncytium formation has been validated in cells expressing S protein. The effect on the syncytium was abolished by furin inhibitor treatment and mutation of the furin cleavage site, suggesting its dependence on cleavage by furin. Our study pointed to the impact of the D614G substitution on syncytium formation through enhanced furin-mediated S cleavage, which might increase the transmissibility and infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 strains containing S-G614. IMPORTANCE Analysis of viral genomes and monitoring of the evolutionary trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 over time has identified the D614G substitution in spike (S) as the most prevalent expanding variant worldwide, which might confer a selective advantage in transmission. Several studies showed that the D614G variant replicates and transmits more efficiently than the wild-type virus, but the mechanism is unclear. By comparing 18 virus isolates containing S with either D614 or G614, we found significantly higher virus titers in association with higher furin protease-mediated cleavage of S, an event that promotes syncytium formation and virus infectivity, in the S-G614 viruses. The effect of the D614G substitution on furin-mediated S cleavage and the resulting enhancement of the syncytium phenotype has been validated in S-expressing cells. This study suggests a possible effect of the D614G substitution on S of SARS-CoV-2; the antiviral effect through targeting furin protease is worthy of being investigated in proper animal models.

Replicative Fitness of a SARS-CoV-2 20I/501Y.V1 Variant from Lineage B.1.1.7 in Human Reconstituted Bronchial Epithelium.

Since its emergence in 2019, circulating populations of the new coronavirus (CoV) continuously acquired genetic diversity. At the end of 2020, a variant named 20I/501Y.V1 (lineage B.1.1.7) emerged and replaced other circulating strains in several regions. This phenomenon has been poorly associated with biological evidence that this variant and the original strain exhibit different phenotypic characteristics. Here, we analyze the replication ability of this new variant in different cellular models using for comparison an ancestral D614G European strain (lineage B1). Results from comparative replication kinetics experiments in vitro and in a human reconstituted bronchial epithelium showed no difference. However, when both viruses were put in competition in human reconstituted bronchial epithelium, the 20I/501Y.V1 variant outcompeted the ancestral strain. All together, these findings demonstrate that this new variant replicates more efficiently and may contribute to a better understanding of the progressive replacement of circulating strains by the severe acute respiratory CoV-2 (SARS-CoV-2) 20I/501Y.V1 variant. IMPORTANCE The emergence of several SARS-CoV-2 variants raised numerous questions concerning the future course of the pandemic. We are currently observing a replacement of the circulating viruses by the variant from the United Kingdom known as 20I/501Y.V1, from the B.1.1.7 lineage, but there is little biological evidence that this new variant exhibits a different phenotype. In the present study, we used different cellular models to assess the replication ability of the 20I/501Y.V1 variant. Our results showed that this variant replicates more efficiently in human reconstituted bronchial epithelium, which may explain why it spreads so rapidly in human populations.

Prediction and Evolution of the Molecular Fitness of SARS-CoV-2 Variants: Introducing SpikePro.

The understanding of the molecular mechanisms driving the fitness of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and its mutational evolution is still a critical issue. We built a simplified computational model, called SpikePro, to predict the SARS-CoV-2 fitness from the amino acid sequence and structure of the spike protein. It contains three contributions: the inter-human transmissibility of the virus predicted from the stability of the spike protein, the infectivity computed in terms of the affinity of the spike protein for the ACE2 receptor, and the ability of the virus to escape from the human immune response based on the binding affinity of the spike protein for a set of neutralizing antibodies. Our model reproduces well the available experimental, epidemiological and clinical data on the impact of variants on the biophysical characteristics of the virus. For example, it is able to identify circulating viral strains that, by increasing their fitness, recently became dominant at the population level. SpikePro is a useful, freely available instrument which predicts rapidly and with good accuracy the dangerousness of new viral strains. It can be integrated and play a fundamental role in the genomic surveillance programs of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that, despite all the efforts, remain time-consuming and expensive.

SARS-CoV-2 gene content and COVID-19 mutation impact by comparing 44 Sarbecovirus genomes.

Despite its clinical importance, the SARS-CoV-2 gene set remains unresolved, hindering dissection of COVID-19 biology. We use comparative genomics to provide a high-confidence protein-coding gene set, characterize evolutionary constraint, and prioritize functional mutations. We select 44 Sarbecovirus genomes at ideally-suited evolutionary distances, and quantify protein-coding evolutionary signatures and overlapping constraint. We find strong protein-coding signatures for ORFs 3a, 6, 7a, 7b, 8, 9b, and a novel alternate-frame gene, ORF3c, whereas ORFs 2b, 3d/3d-2, 3b, 9c, and 10 lack protein-coding signatures or convincing experimental evidence of protein-coding function. Furthermore, we show no other conserved protein-coding genes remain to be discovered. Mutation analysis suggests ORF8 contributes to within-individual fitness but not person-to-person transmission. Cross-strain and within-strain evolutionary pressures agree, except for fewer-than-expected within-strain mutations in nsp3 and S1, and more-than-expected in nucleocapsid, which shows a cluster of mutations in a predicted B-cell epitope, suggesting immune-avoidance selection. Evolutionary histories of residues disrupted by spike-protein substitutions D614G, N501Y, E484K, and K417N/T provide clues about their biology, and we catalog likely-functional co-inherited mutations. Previously reported RNA-modification sites show no enrichment for conservation. Here we report a high-confidence gene set and evolutionary-history annotations providing valuable resources and insights on SARS-CoV-2 biology, mutations, and evolution.

Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province.

Understanding when severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged is critical to evaluating our current approach to monitoring novel zoonotic pathogens and understanding the failure of early containment and mitigation efforts for COVID-19. We used a coalescent framework to combine retrospective molecular clock inference with forward epidemiological simulations to determine how long SARS-CoV-2 could have circulated before the time of the most recent common ancestor of all sequenced SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Our results define the period between mid-October and mid-November 2019 as the plausible interval when the first case of SARS-CoV-2 emerged in Hubei province, China. By characterizing the likely dynamics of the virus before it was discovered, we show that more than two-thirds of SARS-CoV-2-like zoonotic events would be self-limited, dying out without igniting a pandemic. Our findings highlight the shortcomings of zoonosis surveillance approaches for detecting highly contagious pathogens with moderate mortality rates.

Stability of SARS-CoV-2 Spike G614 Variant Surpasses That of the D614 Variant after Cold Storage.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) carrying the D614G mutation on the spike protein is the predominant circulating variant and is associated with enhanced infectivity. However, whether this dominant variant can potentially spread through the cold chain and whether the spike protein affects virus stability after cold storage remain unclear. To compare the infectivity of two SARS-CoV-2 variants, namely, SARS-CoV-2 variants with spike protein with the D614 mutation (S-D614) and G614 mutation (S-G614), after different periods of refrigeration (4°C) and freezing (-20°C). We also determined the integrity of the viral RNA and the ability of the spike protein to bind angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) after storage at these conditions. The results showed that SARS-CoV-2 was more stable and infectious after storage at -20°C than at 4°C. Particularly, the S-G614 variant was found to be more stable than the S-D614 variant. The spike protein of the S-G614 variant had better binding ability with the ACE2 receptor than that of the S-D614 variant after storage at -20°C for up to 30 days. Our findings revealed that SARS-CoV-2 remains stable and infectious after refrigeration or freezing, and their stability and infectivity up to 30 days depends on the spike variant. Stability and infectivity are related to each other, and the higher stability of S-G614 compared to that of S-D614 may contribute to rapid viral spread of the S-G614 variant.IMPORTANCE It has been observed that variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are more stable and infectious after storage at -20°C than at 4°C. A SARS-CoV-2 S-D614G variant is currently the most dominant variant in circulation and is associated with enhanced infectivity. We compared the stability of two SARS-CoV-2 variants: the early S-D614 variant carrying the D614 spike protein and the new S-G614 variant carrying the G614 spike protein, stored at both 4°C and -20°C for different periods. We observed that SARS-CoV-2 remains stable and infectious after refrigeration or freezing, which further depends on the spike variant, that is, the ability of the spike protein to bind with the ACE2 receptor with higher efficiency. The high stability of the S-G614 variant also explains its rapid spread and infectivity. Therefore, precautions should be taken during and after handling food preserved under cold conditions.

Detection of a SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern in South Africa.

Continued uncontrolled transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in many parts of the world is creating conditions for substantial evolutionary changes to the virus1,2. Here we describe a newly arisen lineage of SARS-CoV-2 (designated 501Y.V2; also known as B.1.351 or 20H) that is defined by eight mutations in the spike protein, including three substitutions (K417N, E484K and N501Y) at residues in its receptor-binding domain that may have functional importance3-5. This lineage was identified in South Africa after the first wave of the epidemic in a severely affected metropolitan area (Nelson Mandela Bay) that is located on the coast of the Eastern Cape province. This lineage spread rapidly, and became dominant in Eastern Cape, Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal provinces within weeks. Although the full import of the mutations is yet to be determined, the genomic data-which show rapid expansion and displacement of other lineages in several regions-suggest that this lineage is associated with a selection advantage that most plausibly results from increased transmissibility or immune escape6-8.

Targeted design of drug binding sites in the main protease of SARS-CoV-2 reveals potential signatures of adaptation.

Several existing drugs are currently being tested worldwide to treat COVID-19 patients. Recent data indicate that SARS-CoV-2 is rapidly evolving into more transmissible variants. It is therefore highly possible that SARS-CoV-2 can accumulate adaptive mutations modulating drug susceptibility and hampering viral antigenicity. Thus, it is vital to predict potential non-synonymous mutation sites and predict the evolution of protein structural modifications leading to drug tolerance. As two FDA-approved anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) drugs, boceprevir, and telaprevir, have been shown to effectively inhibit SARS-CoV-2 by targeting the main protease (Mpro), here we used a high-throughput interface-based protein design strategy to identify mutational hotspots and potential signatures of adaptation in these drug binding sites of Mpro. Several mutants exhibited reduced binding affinity to these drugs, out of which hotspot residues having a strong tendency to undergo positive selection were identified. The data further indicated that these anti-HCV drugs have larger footprints in the mutational landscape of Mpro and hence encompass the highest potential for positive selection and adaptation. These findings are crucial in understanding the potential structural modifications in the drug binding sites of Mpro and thus its signatures of adaptation. Furthermore, the data could provide systemic strategies for robust antiviral design and discovery against COVID-19 in the future.

SARS-CoV-2 spike D614G change enhances replication and transmission.

During the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in humans, a D614G substitution in the spike glycoprotein (S) has emerged; virus containing this substitution has become the predominant circulating variant in the COVID-19 pandemic1. However, whether the increasing prevalence of this variant reflects a fitness advantage that improves replication and/or transmission in humans or is merely due to founder effects remains unknown. Here we use isogenic SARS-CoV-2 variants to demonstrate that the variant that contains S(D614G) has enhanced binding to the human cell-surface receptor angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), increased replication in primary human bronchial and nasal airway epithelial cultures as well as in a human ACE2 knock-in mouse model, and markedly increased replication and transmissibility in hamster and ferret models of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our data show that the D614G substitution in S results in subtle increases in binding and replication in vitro, and provides a real competitive advantage in vivo-particularly during the transmission bottleneck. Our data therefore provide an explanation for the global predominance of the variant that contains S(D614G) among the SARS-CoV-2 viruses that are currently circulating.