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1.
Int J Environ Res Public Health ; 19(20)2022 Oct 14.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2068512

ABSTRACT

Epidemics represent a threat to human life and economy. Meanwhile, medical and non-medical approaches to fight against them may result in additional economic shocks. In this paper, we examine the economic impact of the 2003 SARS outbreak in China and associated government policies. Although the epidemic caused a substantial economic loss in the short term, the interventions for medical purposes positively impacted the economy of the severely affected regions through the increase in investments such as other fiscal stimuli. There is strong and robust evidence suggesting that the SARS epidemic and its associated countermeasure policies boosted local output by around 4% and industrial production by around 5%. The positive growth was mainly derived from the increase in investment and government activity, especially government expenditure. Besides that, lagged impacts were particularly pronounced to the economic system and lasted for longer even than the epidemic period in a biological sense. We attribute this to the relatively aggressive stance of policymakers in the face of the epidemic situation.


Subject(s)
Epidemics , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome , Humans , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome/epidemiology , Disease Outbreaks , China/epidemiology , Government , Economic Development
2.
Nat Commun ; 13(1): 6815, 2022 Nov 17.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2151032

ABSTRACT

Bank bailouts are controversial governmental decisions, putting taxpayers' money at risk to avoid a domino effect through the network of claims between financial institutions. Yet very few studies address quantitatively the convenience of government investments in failing banks from the taxpayers' standpoint. We propose a dynamic financial network framework incorporating bailout decisions as a Markov Decision Process and an artificial intelligence technique that learns the optimal bailout actions to minimise the expected taxpayers' losses. Considering the European global systemically important institutions, we find that bailout decisions become optimal only if the taxpayers' stakes exceed some critical level, endogenously determined by all financial network's characteristics. The convenience to intervene increases with the network's distress, taxpayers' stakes, bank bilateral credit exposures and crisis duration. Moreover, the government should optimally keep bailing-out banks that received previous investments, creating moral hazard for rescued banks that could increase their risk-taking, reckoning on government intervention.


Subject(s)
Artificial Intelligence , Government , Markov Chains
3.
BMC Public Health ; 22(1): 2163, 2022 Nov 24.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2139225

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Based on individual-level studies, previous literature suggested that conservatives and liberals in the United States had different perceptions and behaviors when facing the COVID-19 threat. From a state-level perspective, this study further explored the impact of personal political ideology disparity on COVID-19 transmission before and after the emergence of Omicron. METHODS: A new index was established, which depended on the daily cumulative number of confirmed cases in each state and the corresponding population size. Then, by using the 2020 United States presidential election results, the values of the built index were further divided into two groups concerning the political party affiliation of the winner in each state. In addition, each group was further separated into two parts, corresponding to the time before and after Omicron predominated. Three methods, i.e., functional principal component analysis, functional analysis of variance, and function-on-scalar linear regression, were implemented to statistically analyze and quantify the impact. RESULTS: Findings reveal that the disparity of personal political ideology has caused a significant discrepancy in the COVID-19 crisis in the United States. Specifically, the findings show that at the very early stage before the emergence of Omicron, Democratic-leaning states suffered from a much greater severity of the COVID-19 threat but, after July 2020, the severity of COVID-19 transmission in Republican-leaning states was much higher than that in Democratic-leaning states. Situations were reversed when the Omicron predominated. Most of the time, states with Democrat preferences were more vulnerable to the threat of COVID-19 than those with Republican preferences, even though the differences decreased over time. CONCLUSIONS: The individual-level disparity of political ideology has impacted the nationwide COVID-19 transmission and such findings are meaningful for the government and policymakers when taking action against the COVID-19 crisis in the United States.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , Government , Population Density , Linear Models , Principal Component Analysis
4.
BMJ ; 379: o2837, 2022 11 24.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2137635
5.
Front Public Health ; 10: 1037242, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2123480

ABSTRACT

Since emergency management capabilities with respect to COVID-19 differ across different regions of China, it is necessary to adopt a more comprehensive perspective to study the reasons for these differences and propose corresponding policies. By investigating 287 prefectural-level administrative regions, this study explores the reasons for different levels of COVID-19 prevention performance. The results lead to the following conclusions. The factors influencing pandemic prevention include both structural factors, such as economic and social factors, and the experiences and characteristics of prefectural-level government leaders (party secretaries and mayors), such as grassroots work experience and level of education, which are significantly positively correlated with the progress of pandemic prevention. Based on these findings, we propose suggestions to improve governance capacity in terms of three aspects: the improvement of emergency management capacity, the appointment of cadres in the context of new challenges and missions, and the establishment collocation of prefectural-level leader teams.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Pandemics/prevention & control , Government , China/epidemiology
6.
BMC Public Health ; 22(1): 785, 2022 04 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2113045

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: In the time of a pandemic, it is typical for public health bodies to collaborate with epidemiologists to design health policies both at national and international levels for controlling the spread. A point largely overlooked in literature is the extent economic capability and public finance status can influence the policy responses of countries during a pandemic situation. This article fills this gap by considering 12 public health and 7 economic measures (i.e., policies) in 200 countries during the COVID-19 first wave, with countries grouped across income categories. METHODS: We apply statistical analysis, inclusive of regression models, to assess the impact of economic capability and public finance status on policy responses. Multiple open-access datasets are used in this research, and information from the hybrid sources are cumulated as samples. In our analysis, we consider variables including population characteristics (population size, density) and economic and public finance status (GDR, current account balance, government surplus/deficit) further to policy responses across public health and economic measures. Additionally, we consider infection rates across countries and the institution of the measures relative to infection rate. RESULTS: Results suggest that countries from all income groups have favoured public health measures like school closures and travel bans, and economic measures like influencing interest rates. However, strong economy countries have more adopted technological monitoring than low-income countries. Contrarily, low-income countries have preferred traditional measures like curfew and obligatory mask-wearing. GDP per capita was a statistically significant factor influencing the institution of both public health and economic measures. Government finance statuses like current account balance and surplus/deficit were also significant factors influencing economic measures. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the research reveals that, further to biological characteristics, policymakers and epidemiologists can consider the economic and public finance contexts when suggesting health responses to a pandemic. This, in turn, calls for more international cooperation on economic terms further to public health terms.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemics , COVID-19/epidemiology , Government , Health Policy , Humans , Pandemics/prevention & control , Public Health
7.
Int J Environ Res Public Health ; 19(22)2022 Nov 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2110061

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: This study explored exposure to misinformation, COVID-19 risk perception, and confidence towards the government as predictors of negative attitudes toward the COVID-19 vaccine. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was carried out from 30 June to 30 August 2021 involving 775 respondents. The survey instrument for the questionnaire was an adaptation from various different studies consisting of five main variables: (1) misinformation about vaccination; (2) risk perception toward COVID-19; (3) attitudes toward the vaccination programme; (4) intention to get vaccinated; and (5) public confidence in the government in executing the vaccination programme. RESULTS: The results of this study indicate that higher exposure to misinformation led to higher levels of negative attitudes toward the COVID-19 vaccine. When the perceived risk of COVID-19 infection was high, mistrust of vaccine benefits was low but there were also higher worries about the future effects of the vaccine. Confidence in the government was associated with lower negative attitudes toward the COVID-19 vaccine. CONCLUSION: The results of this study may help develop an understanding of negative attitudes toward vaccinations in Malaysia and its contributing factors.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Vaccines , Humans , COVID-19 Vaccines , Cross-Sectional Studies , COVID-19/prevention & control , Malaysia , Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice , Vaccination , Government , Communication , Perception
8.
Nature ; 611(7935): 332-345, 2022 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2106424

ABSTRACT

Despite notable scientific and medical advances, broader political, socioeconomic and behavioural factors continue to undercut the response to the COVID-19 pandemic1,2. Here we convened, as part of this Delphi study, a diverse, multidisciplinary panel of 386 academic, health, non-governmental organization, government and other experts in COVID-19 response from 112 countries and territories to recommend specific actions to end this persistent global threat to public health. The panel developed a set of 41 consensus statements and 57 recommendations to governments, health systems, industry and other key stakeholders across six domains: communication; health systems; vaccination; prevention; treatment and care; and inequities. In the wake of nearly three years of fragmented global and national responses, it is instructive to note that three of the highest-ranked recommendations call for the adoption of whole-of-society and whole-of-government approaches1, while maintaining proven prevention measures using a vaccines-plus approach2 that employs a range of public health and financial support measures to complement vaccination. Other recommendations with at least 99% combined agreement advise governments and other stakeholders to improve communication, rebuild public trust and engage communities3 in the management of pandemic responses. The findings of the study, which have been further endorsed by 184 organizations globally, include points of unanimous agreement, as well as six recommendations with >5% disagreement, that provide health and social policy actions to address inadequacies in the pandemic response and help to bring this public health threat to an end.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Delphi Technique , International Cooperation , Public Health , Humans , COVID-19/economics , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Government , Pandemics/economics , Pandemics/prevention & control , Public Health/economics , Public Health/methods , Organizations , COVID-19 Vaccines , Communication , Health Education , Health Policy , Public Opinion
9.
Science ; 376(6592): 445, 2022 04 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2097898

ABSTRACT

Attacks on higher education autonomy put research-and researchers-at risk.


Subject(s)
Government , Nicaragua , Research , Universities
10.
Eur J Psychotraumatol ; 13(2): 1-12, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2097171

ABSTRACT

Background: The SARS-CoV-2 virus continues to spread and resurge globally with signs of a second wave, despite actions by governments to curb the COVID-19 pandemic. However, evidence-based strategies to combat COVID-19 recurrence are poorly documented. Objective: To reveal how governments and individuals should act to effectively cope with future waves, this study proposed a preventive model of COVID-19 resurgence. Method: A questionnaire survey was conducted among 1,137 residents of Beijing, where the epidemic reoccurred. Structural equation model was used to explore the mechanism among government intervention, perceived efficacy, positive emotions, posttraumatic growth (PTG) and protective behaviours. Results: Data analysis revealed that during COVID-19 resurgence, government intervention could directly and indirectly influence protective behaviours through individual factors (i.e. perceived efficacy, positive emotions), and PTG could mediate the indirect pathway to protective behaviours. Conclusions: These findings implied that government intervention needs to be integrated with individual factors to effectively control repeated COVID-19 outbreaks.


Antecedentes: El virus SARS-CoV-2 continúa propagándose y resurgiendo a nivel mundial con signos de una segunda ola, a pesar de las acciones de los gobiernos para frenar la pandemia de COVID-19. Sin embargo, las estrategias basadas en evidencia para combatir la recurrencia de COVID-19 están pobremente documentadas.Objetivo: Para revelar cómo deben actuar los gobiernos y las personas para hacer frente de manera efectiva a futuras olas, este estudio propuso un modelo preventivo del resurgimiento de COVID-19.Método: Se realizó una encuesta entre 1.137 residentes de Beijing, donde la epidemia volvió a ocurrir. Se utilizó un modelo de ecuación estructural para explorar el mecanismo entre la intervención del gobierno, la eficacia percibida, las emociones positivas, el crecimiento postraumático (CPT) y las conductas protectoras.Resultados: El análisis de datos reveló que durante el resurgimiento de COVID-19, la intervención del gobierno podría influir directa e indirectamente en los comportamientos de protección a través de factores individuales (es decir, eficacia percibida, emociones positivas), y CPT podría mediar en el camino indirecto hacia los comportamientos de protección.Conclusiones: Estos hallazgos implicaron que la intervención del gobierno debe integrarse con factores individuales para controlar de manera efectiva los brotes repetidos de COVID-19.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Humans , Pandemics/prevention & control , SARS-CoV-2 , Government , Disease Outbreaks
11.
Int J Environ Res Public Health ; 19(21)2022 Oct 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2090180

ABSTRACT

When the COVID-19 pandemic manifested urgent concerns were raised around the globe about the increased risk that public health restrictions could pose for victims of domestic abuse. Governments, NGOs and community services swiftly responded to convey the message that services for victims were operational and restrictions did not apply to those fleeing harm. This paper reports on the various approaches used to communicate this public health messaging during COVID-19, further highlighting strengths and learning which could inform future crises messaging. It utilises data gathered through a rapid review and mapping of policy and practice initiatives across 4 high-middle income countries: UK, Australia, South Africa and Ireland. Four themes were identified: (1) Top-down: National media messaging; (2) Top-down: Political leadership; (3) Traditional media vs. social media and (4) Bottom-up messaging: Localised, community-based messaging. It was found that a strong, clear top-down stance on domestic abuse was perceived as beneficial during COVID-19. However, a stronger focus on evaluation, reach and impact, particularly for minority groups may be required. Newer forms of media were shown to have potential in conveying messaging to minority groups. Community and grassroots organizations demonstrated their experiential knowledge in reaching target audiences. Harnessing this expertise for future crises messaging may be valuable.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Social Media , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , Government , Pandemics , Public Health
12.
Int J Environ Res Public Health ; 19(21)2022 Oct 27.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2090139

ABSTRACT

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has posed a severe threat to public health and economic activity. Governments all around the world have taken positive measures to, on the one hand, contain the epidemic spread and, on the other hand, stimulate the economy. Without question, tightened anti-epidemic policy measures restrain people's mobility and deteriorate the levels of social and economic activity. Meanwhile, loose policy measures bring little harm to the economy temporarily but could accelerate the transmission of the virus and ultimately wreck social and economic development. Therefore, these two kinds of governmental decision-making behaviors usually conflict with each other. With the purpose of realizing optimal socio-economic benefit over the full duration of the epidemic and to provide a helpful suggestion for the government, a trade-off is explored in this paper between the prevention and control of the epidemic, and economic stimulus. First, the susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model is introduced to simulate the epidemic dynamics. Second, a state equation is constructed to describe the system state variable-the level of socio-economic activity dominated by two control variables. Specifically, these two variables are the strengths of the measures taken for pandemic prevention and control, and economic stimulus. Then, the objective function used to maximize the total socio-economic benefit over the epidemic's duration is defined, and an optimal control problem is developed. The statistical data of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan are used to validate the SIR model, and a COVID-19 epidemic scenario is used to evaluate the proposed method. The solution is discussed in both static and dynamic strategies, according to the knowledge of the epidemic's duration. In the static strategy, two scenarios with different strengths (in terms of anti-epidemic and economic stimulus measures) are analyzed and compared. In the dynamic strategy, two global optimization algorithms, including the dynamic programming (DP) and Pontryagin's minimum principle (PMP), respectively, are used to acquire the solutions. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis of model parameters is conducted. The results demonstrate that the static strategy, which is independent of the epidemic's duration and can be easily solved, is capable of finding the optimal strengths of both policy measures. Meanwhile, the dynamic strategy, which generates global optimal trajectories of the control variables, can provide the path that leads to attaining the optimal total socio-economic benefit. The results reveal that the optimal total socio-economic benefit of the dynamic strategy is slightly higher than that of the static strategy.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemics , Humans , Pandemics/prevention & control , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , SARS-CoV-2 , Public Health , Government
13.
PLoS One ; 17(10): e0274133, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2089401

ABSTRACT

Among other diseases, Covid 19 creates a critical situation around the world. Five layers have been recorded so far, resulting in the loss of millions of lives in different countries. The virus was thought to be contagious, so the government initially severely forced citizens to keep a distance from each other. Since then, several vaccines have been developed that play an important role in controlling mortality. In the case of Covid-19 mortality, the government should be forced to take significant steps in the form of lockdown, keeping you away or forcing citizens to vaccinate. In this paper, modeling of Covid-19 death rates is discussed via probability distributions. To delineate the performance of the best fitted model, the mortality rate of Pakistan and Afghanistan is considered. Numerical results conclude that the NFW model can be used to predict the mortality rate for Covid-19 patients more accurately than other probability models.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2 , Communicable Disease Control , Probability , Government
14.
BMJ ; 379: o2514, 2022 10 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2088790
15.
Int J Environ Res Public Health ; 19(19)2022 Oct 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2066055

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: When the global COVID-19 epidemic continues to spread, residents pay more attention to their health. This paper studies the relationship between the equity of government health expenditure and the health level of residents. METHODS: The Theil index and a principal component analysis were used to measure the equity of government health expenditure and the health level of residents in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle. Then, an empirical study on the relationship between the equity of government health expenditure and the health level of residents in this region was conducted with the System GMM model. RESULTS: 1. The Theil index rose from 0.0115 in 2015 to 0.0231 in 2017 and gradually decreased to 0.0106 in 2020. 2. The overall health level of residents showed an upward trend, rising from 1.95 in 2015 to 2.33 in 2017, then remained high and fluctuated slightly. 3. There was a positive correlation between the Theil index and the health level of residents at a significance level of 1% (ß = 0.903, p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: 1. The Theil index was close to 0, indicating that the equity of government health expenditure in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle was generally good. 2. The health level of residents in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle had improved compared to before. 3. The fairer the government's health expenditure, the higher the residents' health level.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Health Equity , COVID-19/epidemiology , China/epidemiology , Government , Health Expenditures , Health Status , Humans
16.
Work ; 73(s1): S95-S108, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2065431

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: In Cuba, the first cases of coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) were confirmed on March 11, 2020, when the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declared the pandemic and the Ministry of Public Health of Cuba (MINSAP) began to execute the COVID-19 Prevention and Control Plan. This plan was prepared two months earlier by MINSAP working together with the National Civil Defense and the government approved it at the end of January. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this research is to assess the effectiveness of the government strategies to deal with COVID-19, by analyzing the role of the different agencies involved in the pandemic management. METHODS: A bibliographical review of the following documents was conducted: information issued by MINSAP and other ministries, archives of the Pedro Kouri Institute (IPK) and Cuban journals regarding the high impact in the field of medicine. The data were processed with different tools (diagrams, bar graphs, analysis and synthesis, etc.) that allowed measuring the effectiveness of the strategies implemented. RESULTS: The government's strategies focused on: the integration of all state agencies and some private institutions to confront COVID-19; the collaboration between MINSAP specialists, country's research centers and universities for the creation of vaccines to contain the pandemic; the production of medical equipment and instruments; the design of the organization processes of the services, such as planning techniques and distribution of ambulances, allocation of hospitals and isolation centers for sufferers and direct contacts respectively. CONCLUSION: The analysis carried out showed that the interrelations between the different organizations involved had positive influences on the treatment of the pandemic.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Cuba/epidemiology , Pandemics/prevention & control , SARS-CoV-2 , Government
17.
PLoS One ; 17(10): e0248793, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2065106

ABSTRACT

Systematic approaches to epidemiologic data collection are critical for informing pandemic responses, providing information for the targeting and timing of mitigations, for judging the efficacy and efficiency of alternative response strategies, and for conducting real-world impact assessments. Here, we report on a scoping study to assess the completeness of epidemiological data available for COVID-19 pandemic management in the United States, enumerating authoritative US government estimates of parameters of infectious transmission, infection severity, and disease burden and characterizing the extent and scope of US public health affiliated epidemiological investigations published through November 2021. While we found authoritative estimates for most expected transmission and disease severity parameters, some were lacking, and others had significant uncertainties. Moreover, most transmission parameters were not validated domestically or re-assessed over the course of the pandemic. Publicly available disease surveillance measures did grow appreciably in scope and resolution over time; however, their resolution with regards to specific populations and exposure settings remained limited. We identified 283 published epidemiological reports authored by investigators affiliated with U.S. governmental public health entities. Most reported on descriptive studies. Published analytic studies did not appear to fully respond to knowledge gaps or to provide systematic evidence to support, evaluate or tailor community mitigation strategies. The existence of epidemiological data gaps 18 months after the declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic underscores the need for more timely standardization of data collection practices and for anticipatory research priorities and protocols for emerging infectious disease epidemics.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , COVID-19/epidemiology , Government , Humans , Pandemics , Public Health , SARS-CoV-2 , United States/epidemiology
18.
BMJ ; 379: o2466, 2022 10 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2064132
20.
BMJ ; 379: o2431, 2022 10 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2064129

Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Government , Humans
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