Your browser doesn't support javascript.
Show: 20 | 50 | 100
Results 1 - 19 de 19
Filter
1.
BMC Infect Dis ; 22(1): 806, 2022 Oct 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2098320

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic affects common diseases, but its impact on hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is unclear. Google Trends data is beneficial for approximate real-time statistics and because of ease in access, is expected to be used for infection explanation from an information-seeking behavior perspective. We aimed to explain HFMD cases before and during COVID-19 using Google Trends. METHODS: HFMD cases were obtained from the National Institute of Infectious Diseases, and Google search data from 2009 to 2021 in Japan were downloaded from Google Trends. Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated between HFMD cases and the search topic "HFMD" from 2009 to 2021. Japanese tweets containing "HFMD" were retrieved to select search terms for further analysis. Search terms with counts larger than 1000 and belonging to ranges of infection sources, susceptible sites, susceptible populations, symptoms, treatment, preventive measures, and identified diseases were retained. Cross-correlation analyses were conducted to detect lag changes between HFMD cases and search terms before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Multiple linear regressions with backward elimination processing were used to identify the most significant terms for HFMD explanation. RESULTS: HFMD cases and Google search volume peaked around July in most years, excluding 2020 and 2021. The search topic "HFMD" presented strong correlations with HFMD cases, except in 2020 when the COVID-19 outbreak occurred. In addition, the differences in lags for 73 (72.3%) search terms were negative, which might indicate increasing public awareness of HFMD infections during the COVID-19 pandemic. The results of multiple linear regression demonstrated that significant search terms contained the same meanings but expanded informative search content during the COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: The significant terms for the explanation of HFMD cases before and during COVID-19 were different. Awareness of HFMD infections in Japan may have improved during the COVID-19 pandemic. Continuous monitoring is important to promote public health and prevent resurgence. The public interest reflected in information-seeking behavior can be helpful for public health surveillance.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease , Mouth Diseases , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , Pandemics , Japan/epidemiology , Search Engine , Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease/epidemiology , Infodemiology
2.
PLoS One ; 17(9): e0274421, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2039414

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Zhejiang, ranked in the top three in HFMD (hand, foot, and mouth disease) incidence, is located in the Yangtze River Delta region of southeast China. Since 2016, the EV71 vaccine has been promoted in Zhejiang Province. This study aimed to investigate the trend and seasonal variation characteristics of HFMD from 2010 to 2021 and estimate the reduction in enterovirus 71 infection after vaccine use. METHODS: The data on HFMD cases in Zhejiang Province from January 2010 to December 2021 were obtained from this network system. Individual information on cases and deaths was imported, and surveillance information, including demographic characteristics and temporal distributions, was computed by the system. The Joinpoint regression model was used to describe continuous changes in the incidence trend. The BSTS (Bayesian structural time-series models) model was used to estimate the monthly number of cases from 2017 to 2021 based on the observed monthly incidence during 2010-2016 by accounting for seasonality and long-term trends. The seasonal variation characteristics of HFMD pathogens were detected by wavelet analysis. RESULTS: From 2010 to 2021, the annual incidence rate fluctuated between 98.81 cases per 100,000 in 2020 and 435.63 cases per 100,000 in 2018, and 1711 severe HFMD cases and 106 fatal cases were reported in Zhejiang Province, China. The annual percent change (APC) in EV71 cases was -30.72% (95% CI: -45.10 to -12.50) from 2016 to 2021. The wavelet transform of total incidence and number of cases of the three pathogens all showed significant periodicity on the 1-year scale. The average 2-year scale periodicity was significant for the total incidence, EV71 cases and Cox A16 cases, but the other enterovirus cases showed significant periodicity on the 30-month scale. The 6-month scale periodicity was significant for the total incidence, EV71 case and Cox A16 case but not for the other enteroviruses case. The relative error percentage of the performance of the BSTS model was 0.3%. The estimated number of cases from 2017 to 2021 after the EV-A71 vaccines were used was 9422, and the reduction in the number of cases infected with the EV71 virus was 73.43% compared to 70.80% when the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020 was excluded. CONCLUSIONS: Since 2010, the incidence of EV71 infections has shown an obvious downward trend. All types of viruses showed significant periodicity on the 1-year scale. The periodicity of the biennial peak is mainly related to EV71 and Cox A16 before 2017 and other enteroviruses since 2018. The half-year peak cycle of HFMD was mainly caused by EV71 and Cox A6 infection. The expected incidence will be 2.76 times(include the cases of 2020) and 2.43 times(exclude the cases of 2020) higher than the actual value assuming that the measures of vaccination are not taken. EV71 vaccines are very effective and should be administered in the age window between 5 months and 5 years.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Enterovirus A, Human , Enterovirus Infections , Enterovirus , Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease , Vaccines , Antigens, Viral , Bayes Theorem , China/epidemiology , Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease/epidemiology , Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease/prevention & control , Humans , Infant
4.
Virol J ; 19(1): 120, 2022 Jul 21.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1965846

ABSTRACT

Coxsackievirus A10 (CV-A10), the causative agent of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD), caused a series of outbreaks in recent years and often leads to neurological impairment, but a clear understanding of the disease pathogenesis and host response remains elusive. Cellular microRNAs (miRNAs), a large family of non-coding RNA molecules, have been reported to be key regulators in viral pathogenesis and virus-host interactions. However, the role of host cellular miRNAs defensing against CV-A10 infection is still obscure. To address this issue, we systematically analyzed miRNA expression profiles in CV-A10-infected 16HBE cells by high-throughput sequencing methods in this study. It allowed us to successfully identify 312 and 278 miRNAs with differential expression at 12 h and 24 h post-CV-A10 infection, respectively. Among these, 4 miRNAs and their target genes were analyzed by RT-qPCR, which confirmed the sequencing data. Gene target prediction and enrichment analysis revealed that the predicted targets of these miRNAs were significantly enriched in numerous cellular processes, especially in regulation of basic physical process, host immune response and neurological impairment. And the integrated network was built to further indicate the regulatory roles of miRNAs in host-CV-A10 interactions. Consequently, our findings could provide a beneficial basis for further studies on the regulatory roles of miRNAs relevant to the host immune responses and neuropathogenesis caused by CV-A10 infection.


Subject(s)
Enterovirus A, Human , Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease , MicroRNAs , Benzeneacetamides , Enterovirus A, Human/genetics , Epithelial Cells , Humans , MicroRNAs/genetics , Piperidones
5.
J Immunol ; 209(2): 280-287, 2022 Jul 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1964219

ABSTRACT

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD), which is mainly caused by coxsackievirus A16 (CVA16) or enterovirus A71 (EV-A71), poses a serious threat to children's health. However, the long-term dynamics of the neutralizing Ab (NAb) response and ideal paired-serum sampling time for serological diagnosis of CVA16-infected HFMD patients were unclear. In this study, 336 CVA16 and 253 EV-A71 PCR-positive HFMD inpatients were enrolled and provided 452 and 495 sera, respectively, for NAb detection. Random-intercept modeling with B-spline was conducted to characterize NAb response kinetics. The NAb titer of CVA16 infection patients was estimated to increase from negative (2.1, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.4-3.3) on the day of onset to a peak of 304.8 (95% CI: 233.4-398.3) on day 21 and then remained >64 until 26 mo after onset. However, the NAb response level of EV-A71-infected HFMD patients was much higher than that of CVA16-infected HFMD patients throughout. The geometric mean titer was significantly higher in severe EV-A71-infected patients than in mild patients, with a 2.0-fold (95% CI: 1.4-3.2) increase. When a 4-fold rise in titer was used as the criterion for serological diagnosis of CVA16 and EV-A71 infection, acute-phase serum needs to be collected at 0-5 d, and the corresponding convalescent serum should be respectively collected at 17.4 (95% CI: 9.6-27.4) and 24.4 d (95% CI: 15.3-38.3) after onset, respectively. In conclusion, both CVA16 and EV-A71 infection induce a persistent humoral immune response but have different NAb response levels and paired-serum sampling times for serological diagnosis. Clinical severity can affect the anti-EV-A71 NAb response.


Subject(s)
Enterovirus A, Human , Enterovirus Infections , Enterovirus , Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease , Antibodies, Neutralizing , Child , China/epidemiology , Cohort Studies , Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease/diagnosis , Humans , Infant , Longitudinal Studies
6.
J Clin Virol ; 154: 105245, 2022 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1956198

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is an acute febrile illness characterized by fever; sore throat; and vesicular eruptions on the hands, feet, and oral mucosa. Outbreaks of HFMD in children aged <5 years have been reported worldwide and the major causative agents are Coxsackievirus (CV)A16, enterovirus (EV)-A71 and recently CVA6. AIM AND METHODS: The aim of this study was to investigated a large outbreak of Hand, foot, and mouth disease during COVID-19 pandemic in 2021 from clinical samples of 315 suspected cases, in São Paulo State, Brazil. Diagnostic evaluation was performed by RT-qPCR, culture cell isolation and serological neutralization assay. EV-positive were genotyped by partial VP1 genome sequencing. RESULTS: One hundred and forty-nine cases analyzed were positive for enterovirus (47.3%; n = 149/315) by neutralizing test (n = 10 patients) and RT-qPCR (n = 139 patients), and identified as CVA6 sub-lineage D3 by analysis of VP1 partial sequences. CONCLUSIONS: This finding indicated the reemergence of CVA6 in HFMD, soon after the gradual easing of non-pharmaceutical interventions during-pandemic COVID-19 and the relevance of continued surveillance of circulating enterovirus types in the post-COVID pandemic era.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Enterovirus Infections , Enterovirus , Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease , Brazil/epidemiology , COVID-19/epidemiology , Child , China/epidemiology , Disease Outbreaks , Enterovirus Infections/epidemiology , Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease/epidemiology , Humans , Infant , Pandemics
7.
J Infect Public Health ; 15(5): 594-598, 2022 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1882236

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Appropriate mitigation strategy to minimize enterovirus (EV) transmission among children is essential to control severe EV epidemics. Scientific evidence for the effectiveness of case isolation and class suspension is lacking. METHODS: EV-infected children ≤ eight years are asked to stay at home for seven days. Classes were suspended for seven days if there are more than two classmates having an onset of herpangina or hand, foot, and mouth disease in one classroom within one week. Study subjects are divided into two groups, group A with class suspension for one week and group B without class suspension. RESULTS: Among 4153 reported EV-infected children from 1085 classes in May and June, 2015 were enrolled. Median incidence of EV infection in a class was 7% (range 3% -60%). The incidence was higher in group A (median 14%, range 3-60%) than that in group B (median 6%, range 3-80%) (P < 0.01). The median incidence is highest in day care center (20%), followed by kindergarten (8%), and primary school (4%) (P < 0.01). Most secondary cases in group A appeared within seven days after the disease onset of index case in the same class. The incidence of EV infection remained low and was similar between the two groups eight days and beyond after the disease onset of index cases. CONCLUSIONS: Targeted class suspension for seven days with case isolation for seven days is an effective measure to mitigate transmission of EV infection in children.


Subject(s)
Enterovirus Infections , Enterovirus , Epidemics , Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease , Herpangina , Child , Enterovirus Infections/epidemiology , Enterovirus Infections/prevention & control , Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease/epidemiology , Herpangina/epidemiology , Humans , Infant
8.
Arch Virol ; 167(6): 1405-1420, 2022 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1864402

ABSTRACT

Coxsackievirus A19 (CV-A19) is an enterovirus belonging to the species Enterovirus C, and the prototype strain 8663 was isolated from a patient with Guillain-Barré syndrome in Japan. In this study, we determined the complete genome sequence of a CV-A19 isolate identified in a stool sample from a child with hand, foot, and mouth disease in Xinxiang, Henan, China, in 2019 and named it CV-A19 strain 2019103106/XX/CHN/2019 - 2019103106 for short. The genome of this virus consists of 7409 nucleotides, including a 6624-nucleotide open reading frame encoding a potential polyprotein precursor of 2207 amino acids. Compared with strain 8663, strain 2019103106 showed 85.1% nucleotide sequence identity in the complete genome and 85.6% identity in the VP1 coding region, reflecting their genetic divergence. Phylogenetic analysis of strain 2019103106 and other representative EV-C strains with sequences available in the GenBank database showed that CV-A19 strains could be grouped into two clusters based on the complete or 214-nucleotide partial VP1 coding regions, and 2019103106 belonged to cluster 1, with the closest relationship to CV-A19 strain SWG82 from Shandong, China. Phylogenetic trees based on the P2 and P3 coding regions highlighted the divergence between strains 2019103106 and 8663, implying that strain 2019103106 had undergone recombination. Further recombination analysis suggested that strains V18A-like CV-A1 and BBD26-like CV-A19 probably recombined to yield strain 2019103106. The present study points out the genetic diversity of CV-A19. It expands our understanding of the evolution of the CV-A19 genome, but more genome sequences of epidemic strains are needed to explain the phylogeny and evolutionary history of CV-A19 comprehensively.


Subject(s)
Coxsackievirus Infections , Enterovirus C, Human , Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease , Child , China/epidemiology , Enterovirus C, Human/genetics , Genome, Viral , Genomics , Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease/genetics , Humans , Nucleotides , Phylogeny , RNA, Viral/genetics
9.
BMC Public Health ; 22(1): 998, 2022 05 17.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1846819

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Meteorological factors and air pollutants have been reported to be associated with hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) epidemics before the introduction of vaccine. However, there is limited evidence for studies with long-term dimensions. METHODS: We collected the daily HFMD counts, weather and air pollution data from 2014 to 2020 in Chengdu. Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) were used to assess the associations of meteorological factors and air pollutants on HFMD cases. RESULTS: From 2014-2020, high relative humidity and precipitation and extremely high and low levels of PM10, O3, SO2 and CO increased the risk of HFMD. In pre-vaccination period, extreme high and low temperatures, PM10 and NO2, low precipitation and high concentrations of PM2.5 and O3 significantly increase the risk of HFMD; In post-vaccination period, high relative humidity and low level of CO can significantly increase the incidence of HFMD; During the period of COVID-19, only low temperature will significantly increase the risk of HFMD; Low concentration of air pollutants has the greatest impact on the 6-14 age group, while the high concentration of air pollutants has the greatest impact on the 0-1 age group. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggest that high relative humidity and precipitation and extremely high and low levels of PM10, O3, SO2 and CO increased the risk of HFMD from 2014 to 2020. The results of this study provide a reference for local authorities to formulate intervention measures and establish an environment-based disease early warning system.


Subject(s)
Air Pollutants , Air Pollution , COVID-19 , Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease , Air Pollutants/adverse effects , Air Pollution/adverse effects , Air Pollution/analysis , China/epidemiology , Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease/epidemiology , Humans , Incidence , Meteorological Concepts
10.
Pediatr Int ; 64(1): e14958, 2022 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1784728

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: To combat the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, many countries, including Japan, implemented policies limiting social activities and encouraging preventive behaviors. This study examines the influence of such policies on the trends of 10 infectious pediatric diseases: pharyngoconjunctival fever; group A streptococcal pharyngitis; infectious gastroenteritis; chickenpox; erythema infectiosum; hand, foot, and mouth disease; herpangina; respiratory syncytial virus; exanthem subitum; and mumps. METHODS: The research adopted a retrospective cohort study design. We collected data from Japan's National Epidemiological Surveillance Program detailing the incidences of the 10 diseases per pediatric sentinel site for a period beginning at 9 weeks before government-ordered school closures and ending at 9 weeks after the end of the state of emergency. We obtained corresponding data for the equivalent weeks in 2015-2019. We estimated the influence of the policies using a difference-in-differences regression model. RESULTS: For seven diseases (pharyngoconjunctival fever; group A streptococcal pharyngitis; infectious gastroenteritis; chickenpox; erythema infectiosum; hand, foot, and mouth disease; and herpangina), the incidence in 2020 decreased significantly during and after the school closures. Sensitivity analysis, in which the focus area was limited to the policy-implementation period or existing trend patterns, replicated these significant decreases for one of the above mentioned seven diseases - infectious gastroenteritis. CONCLUSIONS: Policies such as school closures and encouragement of preventive behaviors were associated with significant decreases in the incidences of most of the 10 diseases, which sensitivity analysis replicated in infectious gastroenteritis. To determine the long-term effects of these policies, prospective cohort studies are needed.


Subject(s)
Adenovirus Infections, Human , COVID-19 , Chickenpox , Communicable Diseases , Erythema Infectiosum , Gastroenteritis , Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease , Herpangina , Pharyngitis , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Child , Communicable Diseases/epidemiology , Humans , Pharyngitis/epidemiology , Policy , Prospective Studies , Retrospective Studies , Streptococcus pyogenes
11.
J Med Virol ; 94(7): 3121-3132, 2022 Jul.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1750404

ABSTRACT

Growing evidence has shown that anti-COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) can support prevention and control of various infectious diseases, including intestinal diseases. However, most studies focused on the short-term mitigating impact and neglected the dynamic impact over time. This study is aimed to investigate the dynamic impact of anti-COVID-19 NPIs on hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) over time in Xi'an City, northwestern China. Based on the surveillance data of HFMD, meteorological and web search data, Bayesian Structural Time Series model and interrupted time series analysis were performed to quantitatively measure the impact of NPIs in sequent phases with different intensities and to predict the counterfactual number of HFMD cases. From 2013 to 2021, a total number of 172,898 HFMD cases were reported in Xi'an. In 2020, there appeared a significant decrease in HFMD incidence (-94.52%, 95% CI: -97.54% to -81.95%) in the first half of the year and the peak period shifted from June to October by a small margin of 6.74% compared to the previous years of 2013 to 2019. In 2021, the seasonality of HFMD incidence gradually returned to the bimodal temporal variation pattern with a significant average decline of 61.09%. In particular, the impact of NPIs on HFMD was more evident among young children (0-3 years), and the HFMD incidence reported in industrial areas had an unexpected increase of 51.71% in 2020 autumn and winter. Results suggested that both direct and indirect NPIs should be implemented as effective public health measures to reduce infectious disease and improve surveillance strategies, and HFMD incidence in Xi'an experienced a significant rebound to the previous seasonality after a prominent decline influenced by the anti-COVID-19 NPIs.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Communicable Diseases , Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease , Bayes Theorem , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Child , Child, Preschool , China/epidemiology , Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease/epidemiology , Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease/prevention & control , Humans , Incidence , Seasons
13.
BMC Infect Dis ; 22(1): 56, 2022 Jan 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1631087

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Previous reports have described hypogonadism associated with virus infection such as hantavirus, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) or severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2). However, to our best knowledge there has been no case report of secondary hypogonadism following hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD). CASE PRESENTATION: A previously healthy 28-year-old man with no history of major physical and psychological trauma, presented with bilateral gynecomastia and erectile dysfunction 2 weeks after HFMD. Laboratory testament showed the level of gonadotropin hormones declined. Imaging examination demonstrated no major abnormal change in pituitary or reproductive system. The diagnosis of hypogonadism was established. Then the patient was ordered to maintain mental health outward of hospital without drug intervention. One month after presentation, his gonadotropin hormone level and sexual desire had recovered, while bilateral gynecomastia and erectile dysfunction symptoms disappeared. CONCLUSIONS: Physicians should notice the possibility for hypogonadism in adult patients with a recent history of HFMD.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Erectile Dysfunction , Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease , Hypogonadism , Adult , Erectile Dysfunction/etiology , Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease/complications , Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease/diagnosis , Humans , Male , SARS-CoV-2
14.
Vaccine ; 39(52): 7584-7589, 2021 12 20.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1569117

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To conduct a nationwide evaluation of vaccine bidding, procurement and distribution management for understanding and improving the current situation well in mainland China. METHODS: An institution survey was carried out to collect information on tendering, procurement, distribution and related issues to vaccines by structured questionnaires administered to 31 provinces in mainland China from April to July 2019. RESULTS: In 13 (41.9%) of 31 provinces, centralized bidding of National Immunization Program (NIP) vaccines was accomplished, and others conducted independent tendering and purchasing in 2018. For non-NIP vaccines, all provinces implemented unified bidding at the provincial level and over half (18, 58.1%) of them chose provincial public resource trading platforms, but their modes varied over provinces. Then procurement was undertaken by the district-level centers for disease control and prevention (CDC) while they were unable to choose the best option of too many vaccines targeted by the province-level CDC for local populations. The distribution modes of NIP and non-National Immunization Program (non-NIP) vaccines were similar overall in a province but very different over provinces. Main mode was that CDCs at different levels delivered about two thirds (64.5%) of NIP vaccines distribution and more than one third (35.5%) of non-NIP vaccines. Another distribution mode was occupied as fully buying the service from third parties in 3 municipalities. Some provinces mixed both modes, too. The total distribution volume of vaccines was 430.7 million doses in 2018. The top five non-NIP vaccines delivered in 2018 were human rabies vaccine, varicella vaccine, EV71 hand foot mouth disease vaccine, hepatitis B vaccine and influenza vaccine. CONCLUSION: The vaccine biding, procurement and distribution management varied over provinces in mainland China in 2018, especially for non-NIP vaccines. Specific policies and measures should be developed for different regions to improve the immunization management better.


Subject(s)
Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease , Immunization Programs , China , Hepatitis B Vaccines , Humans , Vaccination
15.
Euro Surveill ; 26(43)2021 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1533602

ABSTRACT

We report a large-scale outbreak of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in France. As at 28 September 2021, 3,403 cases have been reported (47% higher than in 2018-19). We prospectively analysed 210 clinical samples; 190 (90.5%) were enterovirus-positive. Most children presented with atypical HFMD. Coxsackievirus (CV)A6 (49.5%; 94/190) was predominant; no enterovirus A71 was detected. Dermatological and neurological complications of HFMD justify prospective syndromic and virological surveillance for early detection of HFMD outbreaks and identification of associated types.


Subject(s)
Enterovirus Infections , Enterovirus , Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease , Child , Disease Outbreaks , Enterovirus Infections/epidemiology , Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease/diagnosis , Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease/epidemiology , Humans , Infant , Prospective Studies
16.
Arch Virol ; 166(8): 2209-2216, 2021 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1309043

ABSTRACT

Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) can cause hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in children and may be associated with severe neurological complications. There have been numerous reports of increased incidence of EV-A71 subgenogroup C1 (EV-A71 C1) infections associated with neurological diseases since the first occurrence in Germany in 2015. Here, we describe 11 full-length genome sequences of 2019 EV-A71 C1 strains isolated from HFMD patients in Thailand from 2019 to early 2020. The genetic evolution of 2019 EV-A71 C1 was traced in the outbreaks, and the emergence of multiple lineages was detected. Our results demonstrated that 2019 EV-A71 C1 from Thailand emerged through recombination between its nonstructural protein gene and those of other EV-A genotypes. Bayesian-based phylogenetic analysis showed that the 2019 EV-A71 C1 Thai strains share a common ancestor with variants in Europe (Denmark and France). The substitution rate for the 2019 EV-A71 C1 genome was estimated to be 4.38 × 10-3 substitutions/(site∙year-1) (95% highest posterior density interval: 3.84-4.94 × 10-3 substitutions/[site∙year-1]), approximating that observed between previous EV-A71 C1 outbreaks. These data are essential for understanding the evolution of EV-A C1 during the ongoing HFMD outbreak and may be relevant to disease outcomes in children worldwide.


Subject(s)
Enterovirus A, Human/classification , Genetic Variation , Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease/virology , Whole Genome Sequencing/methods , Child , Child, Preschool , Denmark , Enterovirus A, Human/genetics , Enterovirus A, Human/isolation & purification , Evolution, Molecular , Female , France , Genome, Viral , Germany , Humans , Infant , Male , Phylogeny , Phylogeography , Thailand
17.
Int J Environ Res Public Health ; 18(11)2021 06 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1266743

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: This study intends to identify the best model for predicting the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Ningbo by comparing Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network (LSTM) models combined and uncombined with exogenous meteorological variables. METHODS: The data of daily HFMD incidence in Ningbo from January 2014 to November 2017 were set as the training set, and the data of December 2017 were set as the test set. ARIMA and LSTM models combined and uncombined with exogenous meteorological variables were adopted to fit the daily incidence of HFMD by using the data of the training set. The forecasting performances of the four fitted models were verified by using the data of the test set. Root mean square error (RMSE) was selected as the main measure to evaluate the performance of the models. RESULTS: The RMSE for multivariate LSTM, univariate LSTM, ARIMA and ARIMAX (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model with Exogenous Input Variables) was 10.78, 11.20, 12.43 and 14.73, respectively. The LSTM model with exogenous meteorological variables has the best performance among the four models and meteorological variables can increase the prediction accuracy of LSTM model. For the ARIMA model, exogenous meteorological variables did not increase the prediction accuracy but became the interference factor of the model. CONCLUSIONS: Multivariate LSTM is the best among the four models to fit the daily incidence of HFMD in Ningbo. It can provide a scientific method to build the HFMD early warning system and the methodology can also be applied to other communicable diseases.


Subject(s)
Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease , China/epidemiology , Forecasting , Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease/epidemiology , Humans , Incidence , Meteorological Concepts , Models, Statistical , Neural Networks, Computer
18.
Comput Math Methods Med ; 2021: 6697522, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1160949

ABSTRACT

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a highly contagious disease with several outbreaks in Asian-Pacific countries, including Thailand. With such epidemic characteristics and potential economic impact, HFMD is a significant public health issue in Thailand. Generally, contagious/infectious diseases' transmission dynamics vary across geolocations due to different socioeconomic situations, demography, and lifestyles. Hence, a nationwide comprehensive model of the disease's epidemic dynamics can provide information to understand better and predict a potential outbreak of this disease and efficiently and effectively manage its impact. However, there is no nationwide and comprehensive (i.e., the inclusion of reinfections in the model) model of HFDM dynamics for Thailand. This paper has endeavoured to promote nationwide comprehensive modelling of HFMD's epidemic dynamics and comprehend the reinfection cases. We have formulated the SEIRS epidemiological model with dynamic vitals, including reinfections, to explore this disease's prevalence. We also introduced periodic seasonality to reproduce the seasonal effect. The pattern of spread of this disease is uneven across the provinces in Thailand, so we used K-means clustering algorithm to cluster those provinces into three groups (i.e., highly, moderately, and least affected levels). We also analysed health records collected from district hospitals, which suggest significant reinfection cases. For example, we found that 11% (approximately) of infectious patients return for repeat treatment within the study period. We also performed sensitivity analysis which indicates that the basic reproduction number (R 0) is sensitive to the rate of transmission (ß) and the rate at which infected people recover (γ). By fitting the model with HFMD confirmed data for the provinces in each cluster, the basic reproduction number (R 0) was estimated to be 2.643, 1.91, and 3.246 which are greater than 1. Based on this high R 0, this study recommends that this disease will persist in the coming years under identical cultural and environmental conditions.


Subject(s)
Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease/epidemiology , Adolescent , Algorithms , Basic Reproduction Number/statistics & numerical data , Child , Child, Preschool , Computational Biology , Computer Simulation , Disease Outbreaks/statistics & numerical data , Female , Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease/transmission , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Male , Models, Biological , Models, Statistical , Prevalence , Reinfection/epidemiology , Seasons , Thailand/epidemiology
19.
Eur Rev Med Pharmacol Sci ; 24(8): 4519-4522, 2020 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-207809

ABSTRACT

The number of global COVID-19 infected cases is increased rapidly to exceed 370 thousand. COVID-19 is transmitted between humans through direct contact and touching dirty surfaces. This paper aims to find the similarity between DNA sequences of COVID-19 in different countries, and to compare these sequences with three different diseases [HIV, Hand-Foot-Mouth disease (HFMD), and Cryptococcus]. The study used pairwise distance, maximum likelihood tree, and similarity between amino acid to find the results. The results showed that different three main types of viruses namely, COVID-19 are found. The virus in both Italy and Iran is not similar to COVID-19 in China and USA. While, two viruses were spread in Wuhan (before and after December 26, 2019). Besides Cryptococcus and HFMD are found as dominant diseases with Group 1 and Group 3, respectively. Authors claim that the current virus in Italy and Iran that killed thousands of people is not COVID-19 based on the available data.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus/classification , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Amino Acid Sequence , COVID-19 , Coronavirus Infections/virology , Cryptococcus neoformans , Enterovirus , HIV , Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease , Humans , Iran/epidemiology , Italy/epidemiology , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/virology , SARS-CoV-2 , Sequence Alignment , Sequence Analysis, DNA
SELECTION OF CITATIONS
SEARCH DETAIL