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2.
JAMA ; 327(3): 237-247, 2022 01 18.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1669298

ABSTRACT

Importance: Following reductions in US ambulatory care early in the pandemic, it remains unclear whether care consistently returned to expected rates across insurance types and services. Objective: To assess whether patients with Medicaid or Medicare-Medicaid dual eligibility had significantly lower than expected return to use of ambulatory care rates than patients with commercial, Medicare Advantage, or Medicare fee-for-service insurance. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this retrospective cohort study examining ambulatory care service patterns from January 1, 2019, through February 28, 2021, claims data from multiple US payers were combined using the Milliman MedInsight research database. Using a difference-in-differences design, the extent to which utilization during the pandemic differed from expected rates had the pandemic not occurred was estimated. Changes in utilization rates between January and February 2020 and each subsequent 2-month time frame during the pandemic were compared with the changes in the corresponding months from the year prior. Age- and sex-adjusted Poisson regression models of monthly utilization counts were used, offsetting for total patient-months and stratifying by service and insurance type. Exposures: Patients with Medicaid or Medicare-Medicaid dual eligibility compared with patients with commercial, Medicare Advantage, or Medicare fee-for-service insurance, respectively. Main Outcomes and Measures: Utilization rates per 100 people for 6 services: emergency department, office and urgent care, behavioral health, screening colonoscopies, screening mammograms, and contraception counseling or HIV screening. Results: More than 14.5 million US adults were included (mean age, 52.7 years; 54.9% women). In the March-April 2020 time frame, the combined use of 6 ambulatory services declined to 67.0% (95% CI, 66.9%-67.1%) of expected rates, but returned to 96.7% (95% CI, 96.6%-96.8%) of expected rates by the November-December 2020 time frame. During the second COVID-19 wave in the January-February 2021 time frame, overall utilization again declined to 86.2% (95% CI, 86.1%-86.3%) of expected rates, with colonoscopy remaining at 65.0% (95% CI, 64.1%-65.9%) and mammography at 79.2% (95% CI, 78.5%-79.8%) of expected rates. By the January-February 2021 time frame, overall utilization returned to expected rates as follows: patients with Medicaid at 78.4% (95% CI, 78.2%-78.7%), Medicare-Medicaid dual eligibility at 73.3% (95% CI, 72.8%-73.8%), commercial at 90.7% (95% CI, 90.5%-90.9%), Medicare Advantage at 83.2% (95% CI, 81.7%-82.2%), and Medicare fee-for-service at 82.0% (95% CI, 81.7%-82.2%; P < .001; comparing return to expected utilization rates among patients with Medicaid and Medicare-Medicaid dual eligibility, respectively, with each of the other insurance types). Conclusions and Relevance: Between March 2020 and February 2021, aggregate use of 6 ambulatory care services increased after the preceding decrease in utilization that followed the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the rate of increase in use of these ambulatory care services was significantly lower for participants with Medicaid or Medicare-Medicaid dual eligibility than for those insured by commercial, Medicare Advantage, or Medicare fee-for-service.


Subject(s)
Ambulatory Care/trends , COVID-19/epidemiology , Pandemics , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Ambulatory Care/statistics & numerical data , Colonoscopy/statistics & numerical data , Colonoscopy/trends , Databases, Factual , Fee-for-Service Plans/statistics & numerical data , Fee-for-Service Plans/trends , Female , Health Services Needs and Demand/statistics & numerical data , Health Services Needs and Demand/trends , Humans , Insurance, Health/statistics & numerical data , Insurance, Health/trends , Male , Mammography/statistics & numerical data , Mammography/trends , Medicaid/statistics & numerical data , Medicare/statistics & numerical data , Middle Aged , Retrospective Studies , Telemedicine/statistics & numerical data , Telemedicine/trends , Time Factors , United States/epidemiology , Young Adult
7.
Lancet Psychiatry ; 8(10): 929-936, 2021 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1415873

ABSTRACT

Informal (unpaid) carers are an integral part of all societies and the health and social care systems in the UK depend on them. Despite the valuable contributions and key worker status of informal carers, their lived experiences, wellbeing, and needs have been neglected during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this Health Policy, we bring together a broad range of clinicians, researchers, and people with lived experience as informal carers to share their thoughts on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on UK carers, many of whom have felt abandoned as services closed. We focus on the carers of children and young people and adults and older adults with mental health diagnoses, and carers of people with intellectual disability or neurodevelopmental conditions across different care settings over the lifespan. We provide policy recommendations with the aim of improving outcomes for all carers.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/psychology , Caregivers/psychology , Health Policy/legislation & jurisprudence , Health Services Needs and Demand/legislation & jurisprudence , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/virology , Caregivers/economics , Child , Child, Preschool , Female , Health Services Needs and Demand/trends , Humans , Intellectual Disability/epidemiology , Intellectual Disability/psychology , Life Change Events , Male , Mental Disorders/epidemiology , Mental Disorders/psychology , Morbidity/trends , Neurodevelopmental Disorders/epidemiology , Neurodevelopmental Disorders/psychology , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , Social Support , United Kingdom/epidemiology , Young Adult
9.
J Stroke Cerebrovasc Dis ; 30(10): 106028, 2021 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1386120

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic greatly influenced the overall quality of healthcare. The purpose of this study was to compare the time variables for acute stroke treatment and evaluate differences in the pre-hospital and in-hospital care before and during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, as well as between the first and second waves. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Observational and retrospective study from an Italian hospital, including patients who underwent thrombectomy between January 1st 2019 and December 31st 2020. RESULTS: Out of a total of 594 patients, 301 were treated in 2019 and 293 in 2020. The majority observed in 2019 came from spoke centers (67,1%), while in 2020 more than half (52%, p < 0.01) were evaluated at the hospital's emergency room directly (ER-NCGH). When compared to 2019, time metrics were globally increased in 2020, particularly in the ER-NCGH groups during the period of the first wave (N = 24 and N = 56, respectively): "Onset-to-door":50,5 vs 88,5, p < 0,01; "Arrival in Neuroradiology - groin":13 vs 25, p < 0,01; "Door-to-groin":118 vs 143,5, p = 0,02; "Onset-to-groin":180 vs 244,5, p < 0,01; "Groin-to-recanalization": 41 vs 49,5, p = 0,03. When comparing ER-NCGH groups between the first (N = 56) and second (N = 49) waves, there was an overall improvement in times, namely in the "Door-to-CT" (47,5 vs 37, p < 0,01), "Arrival in Neuroradiology - groin" (25 vs 20, p = 0,03) and "Onset-to-groin" (244,5 vs 227,5, p = 0,02). CONCLUSIONS: During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, treatment for stroke patients was delayed, particularly during the first wave. Reallocation of resources and the shutting down of spoke centers may have played a determinant role.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Delivery of Health Care, Integrated/trends , Endovascular Procedures/trends , Stroke/therapy , Thrombectomy/trends , Time-to-Treatment/trends , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Databases, Factual , Emergency Medical Services/trends , Female , Health Care Rationing/trends , Health Services Needs and Demand/trends , Humans , Italy , Male , Middle Aged , Patient Admission/trends , Retrospective Studies , Stroke/diagnosis , Time Factors , Treatment Outcome
11.
J Stroke Cerebrovasc Dis ; 30(10): 106051, 2021 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1356332

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: An association has been reported between delays in the onset-to-door (O2D) time for mechanical thrombectomy (MT) and outbreaks of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, the association between other MT time courses or functional outcomes and COVID-19 outbreaks remains unclear. We compared the time courses of stroke pathways or functional outcomes in 2020 (the COVID-19 era) with those in 2019 (the pre-COVID-19 era) in Tokyo, Japan. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective observational study used data from the Tokyo-tama-REgistry of Acute endovascular Thrombectomy (TREAT), a multicenter registry of MT for acute large vessel occlusion in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area. Patients who had undergone acute MT from January 2019 to December 2020 were included. Patients were classified by the year they had undergone MT (2019 or 2020). RESULTS: In total, 477 patients were analyzed. O2D time was significantly longer in 2020 (146.0 min) than in 2019 (105.0 min; p = 0.034). No significant difference in door-to-puncture time (D2P) time or modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score 0-2 at 90 days was seen between 2019 and 2020. In the subgroup analysis, O2D time was significantly longer in the first half of 2020 compared with 2019. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that the year 2020 was a independent predictor of longer O2D time, but not for mRS score 0-2 at 90 days. CONCLUSIONS: Although O2D time was significantly longer in the COVID-19 compared with the pre-COVID-19 era, D2P may not be significantly delayed and functional outcomes may not be different, despite the COVID-19 pandemic.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Practice Patterns, Physicians'/trends , Stroke/therapy , Thrombectomy/trends , Time-to-Treatment/trends , Health Care Rationing/trends , Health Services Needs and Demand/trends , Humans , Registries , Retrospective Studies , Stroke/diagnosis , Time Factors , Tokyo , Treatment Outcome
15.
World Neurosurg ; 151: e523-e532, 2021 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1297238

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: In times of health resource reallocation, capacities must remain able to meet a continued demand for essential, nonambulatory neurosurgical acute care. This study sought to characterize the demand for and provision of neurosurgical acute care during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. METHODS: This single-center cross-sectional observational analysis compared nonambulatory neurosurgical consult encounters during the peri-surge period (March 9 to May 31, 2020) with those during an analogous period in 2019. Outcomes included consult volume, distribution of problem types, disease severity, and rate of acute operative intervention. RESULTS: A total of 1494 neurosurgical consults were analyzed. Amidst the pandemic surge, 583 consults were seen, which was 6.4 standard deviations below the mean among analogous 2016-2019 periods (mean 873; standard deviation 45, P = 0.001). Between 2019 and 2020, the proportion of degenerative spine consults decreased in favor of spinal trauma (25.6% vs. 34% and 51.9% vs. 41.4%, P = 0.088). Among aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage cases, poor-grade (Hunt and Hess grades 4-5) presentations were more common (30% vs. 14.8%, P = 0.086). A greater proportion of pandemic era consults resulted in acute operative management, with an unchanged absolute frequency of acutely operative consults (123/583 [21.1%] vs. 120/911 [13.2%], P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Neurosurgical consult volume during the pandemic surge hit a 5-year institutional low. Amidst vast reallocation of health care resources, demand for high-acuity nonambulatory neurosurgical care continued and proportionally increased for greater-acuity pathologies. In our continued current pandemic as well as any future situations of mass health resource reallocation, neurosurgical acute care capacities must be preserved.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Health Resources/trends , Health Services Needs and Demand/trends , Neurosurgical Procedures/trends , Patient Acuity , Adult , Aged , COVID-19/prevention & control , Cohort Studies , Cross-Sectional Studies , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Nervous System Diseases/diagnostic imaging , Nervous System Diseases/epidemiology , Nervous System Diseases/surgery
17.
J Am Geriatr Soc ; 69(6): 1422-1428, 2021 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1211533

ABSTRACT

Geriatricians have long debated the parameters, positioning, and prospects of their specialty. The year 2020 started full of promise as many organizations anticipated assessing themselves using perfect, or 2020, vision. While challenging on several levels, the momentous combination of events in 2020-the COVID-19 pandemic, Racial Justice Movement, and the November elections-provided Geriatric Medicine several opportunities to firmly secure a position in the mainstream. As we reflect on the new perspectives, programs, and partnerships initiated in 2020, five broader lessons emerge that can help safeguard the future of Geriatrics: the field could employ more intentional "direct to consumer" marketing strategies, expand the scope of what it means to be a patient advocate, pursue new strategic partnerships, take the opportunity to address racial injustice, and leverage existing skillsets to expand scope of care for patients. Given the interdisciplinary nature of Geriatrics, it is fitting that many of these lessons build upon this collaborative philosophy and are derived from domains outside of health care. So in an unexpected way, the events of 2020 may actually help Geriatrics see, with 2020 vision, how to remain mainstream. With this new clarity, Geriatrics holds renewed promise to truly become specialists in whole-person care and it is our hope that, with insight from the lessons shared here, the specialty brings this vision to fruition in the current decade and beyond.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Geriatrics , Health Services Needs and Demand , Aged , Geriatrics/standards , Geriatrics/trends , Health Services Needs and Demand/standards , Health Services Needs and Demand/trends , Humans , SARS-CoV-2
18.
Vasc Med ; 26(4): 426-433, 2021 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1166685

ABSTRACT

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may predispose patients to venous thromboembolism (VTE). Limited data are available on the utilization of the Pulmonary Embolism Response Team (PERT) in the setting of the COVID-19 global pandemic. We performed a single-center study to evaluate treatment, mortality, and bleeding outcomes in patients who received PERT consultations in March and April 2020, compared to historical controls from the same period in 2019. Clinical data were abstracted from the electronic medical record. The primary study endpoints were inpatient mortality and GUSTO moderate-to-severe bleeding. The frequency of PERT utilization was nearly threefold higher during March and April 2020 (n = 74) compared to the same period in 2019 (n = 26). During the COVID-19 pandemic, there was significantly less PERT-guided invasive treatment (5.5% vs 23.1%, p = 0.02) with a numerical but not statistically significant trend toward an increase in the use of systemic fibrinolytic therapy (13.5% vs 3.9%, p = 0.3). There were nonsignificant trends toward higher in-hospital mortality or moderate-to-severe bleeding in patients receiving PERT consultations during the COVID-19 period compared to historical controls (mortality 14.9% vs 3.9%, p = 0.18 and moderate-to-severe bleeding 35.1% vs 19.2%, p = 0.13). In conclusion, PERT utilization was nearly threefold higher during the COVID-19 pandemic than during the historical control period. Among patients evaluated by PERT, in-hospital mortality or moderate-to-severe bleeding were not significantly different, despite being numerically higher, while invasive therapy was utilized less frequently during the COVID-19 pandemic.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/therapy , Health Resources/trends , Health Services Needs and Demand/trends , Patient Care Team/trends , Practice Patterns, Physicians'/trends , Pulmonary Embolism/therapy , Thrombolytic Therapy/trends , Venous Thromboembolism/therapy , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19/complications , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/mortality , Female , Hemorrhage/etiology , Hemorrhage/mortality , Hospital Mortality , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Pulmonary Embolism/diagnosis , Pulmonary Embolism/etiology , Pulmonary Embolism/mortality , Retrospective Studies , Risk Assessment , Risk Factors , Time Factors , Treatment Outcome , Venous Thromboembolism/diagnosis , Venous Thromboembolism/etiology , Venous Thromboembolism/mortality
19.
Health Care Manag Sci ; 24(2): 375-401, 2021 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1144370

ABSTRACT

Hospitals commonly project demand for their services by combining their historical share of regional demand with forecasts of total regional demand. Hospital-specific forecasts of demand that provide prediction intervals, rather than point estimates, may facilitate better managerial decisions, especially when demand overage and underage are associated with high, asymmetric costs. Regional point forecasts of patient demand are commonly available, e.g., for the number of people requiring hospitalization due to an epidemic such as COVID-19. However, even in this common setting, no probabilistic, consistent, computationally tractable forecast is available for the fraction of patients in a region that a particular institution should expect. We introduce such a forecast, DICE (Demand Intervals from Consistent Estimators). We describe its development and deployment at an academic medical center in California during the 'second wave' of COVID-19 in the Unite States. We show that DICE is consistent under mild assumptions and suitable for use with perfect, biased and unbiased regional forecasts. We evaluate its performance on empirical data from a large academic medical center as well as on synthetic data.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Health Services Needs and Demand/trends , Hospitalization/trends , Algorithms , Forecasting/methods , Humans , Intensive Care Units , Models, Statistical , SARS-CoV-2
20.
Int J Epidemiol ; 49(5): 1443-1453, 2020 10 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1066328

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: While the COVID-19 outbreak in China now appears suppressed, Europe and the USA have become the epicentres, both reporting many more deaths than China. Responding to the pandemic, Sweden has taken a different approach aiming to mitigate, not suppress, community transmission, by using physical distancing without lockdowns. Here we contrast the consequences of different responses to COVID-19 within Sweden, the resulting demand for care, intensive care, the death tolls and the associated direct healthcare related costs. METHODS: We used an age-stratified health-care demand extended SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered) compartmental model for all municipalities in Sweden, and a radiation model for describing inter-municipality mobility. The model was calibrated against data from municipalities in the Stockholm healthcare region. RESULTS: Our scenario with moderate to strong physical distancing describes well the observed health demand and deaths in Sweden up to the end of May 2020. In this scenario, the intensive care unit (ICU) demand reaches the pre-pandemic maximum capacity just above 500 beds. In the counterfactual scenario, the ICU demand is estimated to reach ∼20 times higher than the pre-pandemic ICU capacity. The different scenarios show quite different death tolls up to 1 September, ranging from 5000 to 41 000, excluding deaths potentially caused by ICU shortage. Additionally, our statistical analysis of all causes excess mortality indicates that the number of deaths attributable to COVID-19 could be increased by 40% (95% confidence interval: 0.24, 0.57). CONCLUSION: The results of this study highlight the impact of different combinations of non-pharmaceutical interventions, especially moderate physical distancing in combination with more effective isolation of infectious individuals, on reducing deaths, health demands and lowering healthcare costs. In less effective mitigation scenarios, the demand on ICU beds would rapidly exceed capacity, showing the tight interconnection between the healthcare demand and physical distancing in the society. These findings have relevance for Swedish policy and response to the COVID-19 pandemic and illustrate the importance of maintaining the level of physical distancing for a longer period beyond the study period to suppress or mitigate the impacts from the pandemic.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Communicable Disease Control , Health Care Costs/trends , Health Services Needs and Demand , Mortality/trends , COVID-19/economics , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Communicable Disease Control/methods , Communicable Disease Control/statistics & numerical data , Epidemiological Monitoring , Health Services Needs and Demand/organization & administration , Health Services Needs and Demand/trends , Humans , Models, Theoretical , Patient Isolation , Physical Distancing , SARS-CoV-2 , Sweden/epidemiology
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