Your browser doesn't support javascript.
Show: 20 | 50 | 100
Results 1 - 20 de 467
Filter
Add filters

Year range
1.
F1000Res ; 9: 1286, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1110755

ABSTRACT

Background: Case fatality rate of COVID-19 patients in Surabaya is higher than global cases. Thus, it is important to identify risk factors to reduce the mortality rate. This study aimed to assess the factors associated with hospital mortality of COVID-19 patients, and develop a prediction score based on these findings. Methods: We analyzed 111 patients, who were diagnosed with COVID-19 based on reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. The following patient characteristics were obtained from records: age, gender, type of symptoms, onset of symptoms, neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR), absolute lymphocyte count, chest x-ray abnormalities, lung involvement, type of lesion, radiographic assessment of the quantity of lung edema (RALE) score, and mortality. Data were analyzed using SPSS 25.0. Results Multivariate analysis showed that age >50 years ( p=0.043), NLR score >5.8 ( p=0.016) and RALE score >2 ( p=0.002) can predict the mortality of COVID-19 patients in the hospital. ROC curve analysis of the score ability to predict mortality showed an area under the curve of 0.794. The cut-off point is 4.5, with a sensitivity of 96.7% and specificity of 49.4% to predict the mortality of COVID-19 patient in the hospital. Conclusions Age, NLR score and RALE score were associated with mortality of COVID-19 patients in the hospital and could be used as a predictor for discharge probability of COVID-19 patients in low health care resource setting. The prediction score may be useful for frontline physicians to effectively manage patients with a higher score to prevent mortality.


Subject(s)
Age Factors , Edema/diagnostic imaging , Hospital Mortality , Lymphocytes/cytology , Neutrophils/cytology , Adult , Aged , Female , Humans , Lung/diagnostic imaging , Lung/physiopathology , Male , Middle Aged , Respiratory Sounds , Retrospective Studies
3.
BMJ Open ; 11(2): e043721, 2021 02 22.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1096993

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: Although the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) and its latest version NEWS2 are recommended for monitoring deterioration in patients admitted to hospital, little is known about their performance in COVID-19 patients. We aimed to compare the performance of the NEWS and NEWS2 in patients with COVID-19 versus those without during the first phase of the pandemic. DESIGN: A retrospective cross-sectional study. SETTING: Two acute hospitals (Scarborough and York) are combined into a single dataset and analysed collectively. PARTICIPANTS: Adult (≥18 years) non-elective admissions discharged between 11 March 2020 and 13 June 2020 with an index or on-admission NEWS2 electronically recorded within ±24 hours of admission to predict mortality at four time points (in-hospital, 24 hours, 48 hours and 72 hours) in COVID-19 versus non-COVID-19 admissions. RESULTS: Out of 6480 non-elective admissions, 620 (9.6%) had a diagnosis of COVID-19. They were older (73.3 vs 67.7 years), more often male (54.7% vs 50.1%), had higher index NEWS (4 vs 2.5) and NEWS2 (4.6 vs 2.8) scores and higher in-hospital mortality (32.1% vs 5.8%). The c-statistics for predicting in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 admissions was significantly lower using NEWS (0.64 vs 0.74) or NEWS2 (0.64 vs 0.74), however, these differences reduced at 72hours (NEWS: 0.75 vs 0.81; NEWS2: 0.71 vs 0.81), 48 hours (NEWS: 0.78 vs 0.81; NEWS2: 0.76 vs 0.82) and 24hours (NEWS: 0.84 vs 0.84; NEWS2: 0.86 vs 0.84). Increasing NEWS2 values reflected increased mortality, but for any given value the absolute risk was on average 24% higher (eg, NEWS2=5: 36% vs 9%). CONCLUSIONS: The index or on-admission NEWS and NEWS2 offers lower discrimination for COVID-19 admissions versus non-COVID-19 admissions. The index NEWS2 was not proven to be better than the index NEWS. For each value of the index NEWS/NEWS2, COVID-19 admissions had a substantially higher risk of mortality than non-COVID-19 admissions which reflects the increased baseline mortality risk of COVID-19.


Subject(s)
Early Warning Score , Hospital Mortality , Adult , Aged , /therapy , Cross-Sectional Studies , Female , Humans , Male , Patient Admission , Retrospective Studies , Risk Assessment/methods , United Kingdom/epidemiology
4.
Crit Care ; 25(1): 70, 2021 02 17.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1088611

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The early months of the COVID-19 pandemic were fraught with much uncertainty and some resource constraint. We assessed the change in survival to hospital discharge over time for intensive care unit patients with COVID-19 during the first 3 months of the pandemic and the presence of any surge effects on patient outcomes. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study using electronic medical record data for all patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 admitted to intensive care units from February 25, 2020, to May 15, 2020, at one of 26 hospitals within an integrated delivery system in the Western USA. Patient demographics, comorbidities, and severity of illness were measured along with medical therapies and hospital outcomes over time. Multivariable logistic regression models were constructed to assess temporal changes in survival to hospital discharge during the study period. RESULTS: Of 620 patients with COVID-19 admitted to the ICU [mean age 63.5 years (SD 15.7) and 69% male], 403 (65%) survived to hospital discharge and 217 (35%) died in the hospital. Survival to hospital discharge increased over time, from 60.0% in the first 2 weeks of the study period to 67.6% in the last 2 weeks. In a multivariable logistic regression analysis, the risk-adjusted odds of survival to hospital discharge increased over time (biweekly change, adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.22, 95% CI 1.04-1.40, P = 0.02). Additionally, an a priori-defined explanatory model showed that after adjusting for both hospital occupancy and percent hospital capacity by COVID-19-positive individuals and persons under investigation (PUI), the temporal trend in risk-adjusted patient survival to hospital discharge remained the same (biweekly change, aOR 1.18, 95% CI 1.00-1.38, P = 0.04). The presence of greater rates of COVID-19 positive/PUI as a percentage of hospital capacity was, however, significantly and inversely associated with survival to hospital discharge (aOR 0.95, 95% CI 0.92-0.98, P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: During the early COVID-19 pandemic, risk-adjusted survival to hospital discharge increased over time for critical care patients. An association was also seen between a greater COVID-19-positive/PUI percentage of hospital capacity and a lower survival rate to hospital discharge.


Subject(s)
/epidemiology , Pandemics , Patient Discharge/statistics & numerical data , Aged , Critical Care , Female , Hospital Mortality , Humans , Intensive Care Units , Male , Middle Aged , Retrospective Studies , Survival Analysis , United States/epidemiology
6.
BMC Pulm Med ; 21(1): 55, 2021 Feb 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1084478

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: To explore the relationship between peripheral lymphocyte counts (PLCs) and the mortality risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), as well as the potential of PLC for predicting COVID-19 hospitalized patients death. METHODS: Baseline characteristics, laboratory tests, imaging examinations, and outcomes of 134 consecutive COVID-19 hospitalized patients were collected from a tertiary hospital in Wuhan city from January 25 to February 24, 2020. Multiple regression analysis was used to analyze the relationship between the PLC at admission and mortality risk in COVID-19 patients and to establish a model for predicting death in COVID-19 hospitalized patients based on PLC. RESULTS: After adjusting for potential confounding factors, we found a non-linear relationship and threshold saturation effect between PLC and mortality risk in COVID-19 patients (infection point of PLC: 0.95 × 109/L). Multiple regression analysis showed that when PLCs of COVID-19 patients were lower than 0.95 × 109/L, the patients had a significantly higher mortality risk as compared to COVID-19 patient with PLCs > 0.95 × 109/L (OR 7.27; 95% CI 1.10-48.25). The predictive power of PLC for death in COVID-19 patients (presented as area under the curve) was 0.78. The decision curve analysis showed that PLC had clinical utility for the prediction of death in COVID-19 inpatients. CONCLUSIONS: PLC had a non-linear relationship with mortality risk in COVID-19 inpatients. Reduced PLCs (< 0.95 × 109/L) were associated with an increased mortality risk in COVID-19 inpatients. PLCs also had a potential predictive value for the death of COVID-19 inpatients.


Subject(s)
Hospital Mortality , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Lymphocyte Count , /isolation & purification , Area Under Curve , /diagnosis , /therapy , China/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Lymphocyte Count/methods , Lymphocyte Count/statistics & numerical data , Male , Middle Aged , Predictive Value of Tests , Prognosis , Retrospective Studies , Risk Assessment/methods , Risk Factors
7.
Curr Med Sci ; 41(1): 69-76, 2021 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1083894

ABSTRACT

The infectious coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread all over the world and been persistently evolving so far. The number of deaths in the whole world has been rising rapidly. However, the early warning factors for mortality have not been well ascertained. In this retrospective, single-centre cohort study, we included some adult inpatients (≥18 years old) with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 from Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University who had been discharged or had died by Apr. 8, 2020. Demographic, clinical and laboratory data at admission were extracted from electronic medical records and compared between survivors and non-survivors. We used univariable analysis, Cox proportional hazard model analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to explore the early warning factors associated with in-hospital death. A total of 159 patients were included in this study, of whom 86 were discharged and 73 died in hospital. Hypertension (52.1% vs. 29.1%, P=0.003) and coronary heart disease (28.8% vs. 12.8%, P=0.012) were more frequent among non-survived patients than among survived patients. The proportions of patients with dyspnoea (67.1% vs. 25.6%, P<0.001), chest distress (58.9% vs. 26.7%, P<0.001) and fatigue (64.4% vs. 25.6%, P<0.001) were significantly higher in the non-survived group than in the survived group. Regression analysis with the Cox proportional hazards mode revealed that increasing odds of in-hospital death were associated with higher IL-6 (odds ratio 10.87, 95% CI 1.41-83.59; P=0.022), lactate (3.59, 1.71-7.54; P=0.001), older age (1.86, 1.03-3.38; P=0.041) and lower lymphopenia (5.44, 2.71-10.93; P<0.001) at admission. The areas under the ROC curve (AUCs) of IL-6, lymphocyte, age and lactate were 0.933, 0.928, 0.786 and 0.753 respectively. The AUC of IL-6 was significantly higher than that of age (z=3.332, P=0.0009) and lactate (z=4.441, P<0.0001) for outcome prediction. There was no significant difference between the AUCs of IL-6 and lymphocyte for outcome prediction (z=0.372, P=0.7101). It was concluded that the potential risk factors of higher IL-6, lactate, older age and lower lymphopenia at admission could help clinicians to identify patients with poor prognosis at an early stage.


Subject(s)
/mortality , Coronary Disease/epidemiology , Hypertension/epidemiology , Female , Hospital Mortality , Humans , Male , Prognosis , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors
8.
Hypertension ; 77(3): 856-867, 2021 03 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1083643

ABSTRACT

Older age and cardiovascular comorbidities are well-known risk factors for all-cause mortality in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Hypertension and age are the 2 principal determinants of arterial stiffness (AS). This study aimed to estimate AS in patients with COVID-19 requiring hospitalization and analyze its association with all-cause in-hospital mortality. This observational, retrospective, multicenter cohort study analyzed 12 170 patients admitted to 150 Spanish centers included in the SEMI-COVID-19 Network. We compared AS, defined as pulse pressure ≥60 mm Hg, and clinical characteristics between survivors and nonsurvivors. Mean age was 67.5 (±16.1) years and 42.5% were women. Overall, 2606 (21.4%) subjects died. Admission systolic blood pressure (BP) <120 and ≥140 mm Hg was a predictor of higher all-cause mortality (23.5% and 22.8%, respectively, P<0.001), compared with systolic BP between 120 and 140 mm Hg (18.6%). The 4379 patients with AS (36.0%) were older and had higher systolic and lower diastolic BP. Multivariate analysis showed that AS and systolic BP <120 mm Hg significantly and independently predicted all-cause in-hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio [ORadj]: 1.27, P=0.0001; ORadj: 1.48, P=0.0001, respectively) after adjusting for sex (males, ORadj: 1.6, P=0.0001), age tertiles (second and third tertiles, ORadj: 2.0 and 4.7, P=0.0001), Charlson Comorbidity Index (second and third tertiles, ORadj: 4.8 and 8.6, P=0.0001), heart failure, and previous and in-hospital antihypertensive treatment. Our data show that AS and admission systolic BP <120 mm Hg had independent prognostic value for all-cause mortality in patients with COVID-19 requiring hospitalization.


Subject(s)
/epidemiology , Hospital Mortality , Hypertension/epidemiology , Pandemics , Vascular Stiffness , Age Factors , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Blood Pressure , Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology , Cause of Death , Comorbidity , Female , Humans , Kaplan-Meier Estimate , Male , Middle Aged , Obesity/epidemiology , Odds Ratio , Prognosis , Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/epidemiology , Registries , Retrospective Studies , Spain/epidemiology
9.
Curr Med Sci ; 41(1): 24-30, 2021 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1082574

ABSTRACT

The role of corticosteroids in the treatment of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is controversial. In the present study, we evaluated the effects of adjuvant corticosteroids treatment on the outcome of patients with COVID-19 (n=966), using Propensity Score Matching to adjust for potential differences between the corticosteroids group (n=289) and the non-corticosteroids group (n=677). Analysis of data without adjusting differences in baseline characteristics indicated that the proportion of mechanical ventilation and the mortality was higher in the corticosteroids treatment group in total or severe/critical patients. The duration of viral shedding was longer in the non-corticosteroids treatment group in total or general/mild patients. After adjusting the difference between the corticosteroids and non-corticosteroids treatment group, the analysis revealed that the use of corticosteroids had no effect on the duration of viral shedding, in-hospital mortality or 28-day mortality.


Subject(s)
Adrenal Cortex Hormones/administration & dosage , /physiology , Adrenal Cortex Hormones/therapeutic use , Aged , Chemotherapy, Adjuvant , Female , Hospital Mortality , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Propensity Score , Retrospective Studies , Virus Shedding/drug effects
10.
Med Sci Monit ; 27: e926751, 2021 Feb 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1079820

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is spreading rapidly worldwide, and scientists are trying to find a way to overcome the disease. We explored the risk factors that influence patient outcomes, including treatment regimens, which can provide a reference for further treatment. MATERIAL AND METHODS A retrospective cohort study analysis was performed using data from 97 patients with COVID-19 who visited Wuhan Union Hospital from February 2020 to March 2020. We collected data on demographics, comorbidities, clinical manifestations, laboratory tests, treatment methods, outcomes, and complications. Patients were divided into a recovered group and a deceased group. We compared the differences between the 2 groups and analyzed risk factors influencing the treatment effect. RESULTS Seventy-six patients recovered and 21 died. The average age and body mass index (BMI) of the deceased group were significantly higher than those of the recovered group (69.81±6.80 years vs 60.79±11.28 years, P<0.001 and 24.95±3.14 kg/m² vs 23.09±2.97 kg/m², P=0.014, respectively). The combination of antiviral drugs and supportive therapy appears to be associated with the lowest mortality (P<0.05). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that age, BMI, H-CRP, shock, and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) were independent risk factors for patients with COVID-19 (P<0.05). CONCLUSIONS Elderly patients and those with a high BMI, as well as patients who experience shock and ARDS, may have a higher risk of death from COVID-19. The combination of antiviral drugs and supportive therapy appears to be associated with lower mortality, although further research is needed.


Subject(s)
/drug therapy , /mortality , Shock/mortality , Age Factors , Aged , Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use , /virology , China/epidemiology , Drug Therapy, Combination/methods , Drugs, Chinese Herbal/therapeutic use , Female , Hospital Mortality , Humans , Kaplan-Meier Estimate , Male , Middle Aged , Prognosis , /therapy , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , /pathogenicity , Shock/etiology , Shock/therapy , Treatment Outcome , gamma-Globulins/therapeutic use
11.
Nat Commun ; 12(1): 915, 2021 02 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1078584

ABSTRACT

Dexamethasone can reduce mortality in hospitalised COVID-19 patients needing oxygen and ventilation by 18% and 36%, respectively. Here, we estimate the potential number of lives saved and life years gained if this treatment were to be rolled out in the UK and globally, as well as the cost-effectiveness of implementing this intervention. Assuming SARS-CoV-2 exposure levels of 5% to 15%, we estimate that, for the UK, approximately 12,000 (4,250 - 27,000) lives could be saved between July and December 2020. Assuming that dexamethasone has a similar effect size in settings where access to oxygen therapies is limited, this would translate into approximately 650,000 (240,000 - 1,400,000) lives saved globally over the same time period. If dexamethasone acts differently in these settings, the impact could be less than half of this value. To estimate the full potential of dexamethasone in the global fight against COVID-19, it is essential to perform clinical research in settings with limited access to oxygen and/or ventilators, for example in low- and middle-income countries.


Subject(s)
/drug therapy , Dexamethasone/therapeutic use , /economics , /therapy , Cost-Benefit Analysis , Dexamethasone/economics , Hospital Mortality , Hospitalization , Humans , Quality-Adjusted Life Years , Respiration, Artificial , United Kingdom/epidemiology , Ventilators, Mechanical
12.
Bratisl Lek Listy ; 122(1): 34-38, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1073649

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: This study was aimed to investigate the risk factors for mortality in patients with COVID-19. METHODS: For this retrospective cohort study, we included 121 deceased and 436 discharged cases with COVID-19 in Babol, Northern Iran. The cases were between March 1 to April 1, 2020. RESULTS: Multivariate Poisson regression analysis revealed that older age (aRR: 1.03, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.05, p < 0.001), hospital length of stay (aRR: 0.94, 95% CI: 0.90, 0.97, p = 0.003), ICU admission (aRR: 4.34, 95% CI: 2.95, 6.37, p < 0.001), cerebrovascular disease (aRR: 1.96, 95% CI: 1.20, 3.19, p = 0.007), ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) (aRR: 2.09, 95% CI: 1.22, 3.55, p = 0.006), septic shock (aRR: 2.98, 95% CI: 1.44, 6.19, p = 0.003), acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) (aRR: 3.80, 95% CI: 2.28, 6.31, p < 0.001), acute kidney failure (AKF) (aRR: 1.45, 95% CI: 1.12, 3.76, p = 0.021), acute heart failure (AHF) (aRR: 1.63, 95% CI: 1.01, 2.62, p = 0.043) and lymphocyte count (aRR: 3.01, 95% CI: 1.99, 4.57, p < 0.001) were associated with mortality. CONCLUSION: Findings showed that elderly with comorbidities such as cerebrovascular diseases had an increased risk of death. Some complications such as: pneumonia, septic shock, ARDS, AHF, and AKF played crucial roles as well death (Tab. 2, Ref. 25).


Subject(s)
Adult , Aged , Hospital Mortality , Humans , Intensive Care Units , Iran/epidemiology , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors
13.
Chron Respir Dis ; 18: 1479973120986806, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1069523

ABSTRACT

We examined the relative contribution of pulmonary diseases (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma and sleep apnea) to mortality risks associated with Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) independent of other medical conditions, health risks, and sociodemographic factors. Data were derived from a large US-based case series of patients with COVID-19, captured from a quaternary academic health network covering New York City and Long Island. From March 2 to May 24, 2020, 11,512 patients who were hospitalized were tested for COVID-19, with 4,446 (38.62%) receiving a positive diagnosis for COVID-19. Among those who tested positive, 959 (21.57%) died of COVID-19-related complications at the hospital. Multivariate-adjusted Cox proportional hazards modeling showed mortality risks were strongly associated with greater age (HR = 1.05; 95% CI: 1.04-1.05), ethnic minority (Asians, Non-Hispanic blacks, and Hispanics) (HR = 1.26; 95% CI, 1.10-1.44), low household income (HR = 1.29; 95% CI: 1.11, 1.49), and male sex (HR = 0.85; 95% CI: 0.74, 0.97). Higher mortality risks were also associated with a history of COPD (HR = 1.27; 95% CI: 1.02-1.58), obesity (HR = 1.19; 95% CI: 1.04-1.37), and peripheral artery disease (HR = 1.33; 95% CI: 1.05-1.69). Findings indicate patients with COPD had the highest odds of COVID-19 mortality compared with patients with pre-existing metabolic conditions, such as obesity, diabetes and hypertension. Sociodemographic factors including increased age, male sex, low household income, ethnic minority status were also independently associated with greater mortality risks.


Subject(s)
Asthma/complications , Hospital Mortality , Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/complications , Sleep Apnea Syndromes/complications , Urban Health/statistics & numerical data , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , /diagnosis , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , New York City/epidemiology , Proportional Hazards Models , Risk Factors , Socioeconomic Factors
14.
Ann Ital Chir ; 91: 563-567, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1068445

ABSTRACT

2019-nCoV currently named SARS-CoV-2 is a highly pathogenic Coronavirus identified in Wuhan China in December 2019. Turkey declared the first case relatively late compared to Asian and European countries on March 11, as the first SARS-CoV-2 infection in Turkey. In this study, we aimed to determine patients' outcomes in 50 surgeries done in the incubation period of SARS-CoV-2 in our hospital. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of 50 patients who underwent surgeries during the incubation period of CoVid-19 at Istinye University Gaziosmanpasa Medical Park Hospital in Istanbul, from March 2 to April 11, 2020. RESULTS: The age of 50 patients range was 21 to 73, and the median age was 43.32 (64%) patients were women. The median length of hospital stay is 2.6 days (1-21). Operations at various difficulty levels were also performed on patients with co-morbidities. No complication or mortality was observed except for 1 patient, and the ICU requirement of that patient was also due to high energy trauma. CONCLUSION: Although contrary claims have been made in various studies; it is the primary duty of us surgeons to operate CoVid-19 positive/suspicious patients safely and without any contamination, and on the other hand, to continue their operations without victimizing negative patients. In this pilot study, we would like to emphasize with necessary and adequate measures these can be achieved. KEY WORDS: CoVid-19, SARS-CoV-2, Surgery.


Subject(s)
/diagnosis , Emergencies/epidemiology , Hospitals, Isolation/statistics & numerical data , Hospitals, University/statistics & numerical data , Infectious Disease Incubation Period , Infectious Disease Transmission, Patient-to-Professional/prevention & control , Pandemics , Surgical Procedures, Operative/statistics & numerical data , Adult , Aged , /epidemiology , Comorbidity , Elective Surgical Procedures/mortality , Elective Surgical Procedures/statistics & numerical data , Equipment Contamination/prevention & control , Female , Hospital Mortality , Humans , Infection Control/methods , Male , Middle Aged , Patient Isolation , Pilot Projects , Retrospective Studies , Surgical Procedures, Operative/mortality , Tomography, X-Ray Computed , Turkey/epidemiology , Young Adult
15.
Epidemiol Prev ; 44(5-6 Suppl 2): 226-234, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1068143

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: to describe the clinical and demographical characteristics of COVID-19 infected people in the Friuli Venezia Giulia Region (FVG, Northern Italy). DESIGN: retrospective cohort study with an individual level record linkage procedure of different administrative databases. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: the cohort included 3,010 patients residing in FVG who tested positive for COVID-19 between 1 March and 15 May 2020, 2020. Regional hospital admissions and deaths without hospital admissions up to June 1st, 2020 were analysed. Determinants of the probability of a highly severe illness were investigated in terms of hospitalisations or death without hospital admission. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: COVID-19 patients were identified from regional epidemiological data warehouse. Demographical and clinical variables such as gender, age, patient's comorbidities, vaccinations, ARBs/sartans prescriptions, and geographical residence variables were collected by linking different databases. Descriptive analyses were performed. Logistic multivariate regressions were used to estimate the probability of hospitalisation or death, whichever came first. Model coefficients and odds ratios (OR) were reported. RESULTS: COVID-19 population in FVG had a mean age of 60 years and 59% were females. The study found that 37% had hypertension while patients with cardiologic diseases, diabetes, and cancer were around 15%; 22% of the cases were residing in retirement homes. Approximately 30% received flu or pneumococcal vaccination and a similar proportion of patients had at least one prescription of ARBs /sartans in the previous 6 months. Statistical models showed a higher probability of a worst course of disease for males, elderly, highly complicated (in terms of resource use) subjects, in the presence of cardiologic diseases, diabetes, and pneumococcal vaccination. People living in retirement homes had a lower probability of hospitalisation/death without hospital admission. The cohort was divided into two groups: COVID-19 patients infected in the territory and infected in retirement homes. Among COVID-19 patients infected in the territory, the probability of hospitalisation/death was higher for males, for older individuals, and for those with comorbidities. Diabetes resulted to be a risk factor (OR 1.79; 95%CI 1.23-2.62), as well as pneumococcal vaccination (OR 1.64; 95%CI: 1.18-2.29), which is a likely proxy of fragile patients with pulmonary disease. The flu vaccination showed a potential protective effect with a 40% lower probability of hospitalisation or death (OR 0.62; 95%CI 0.44-0.85). Among the retirement homes cohort group, a higher probability of a bad course of disease emerged for males and for more complex patients. CONCLUSIONS: the greatest risk of hospitalisation/death as a measure of more severe illness was confirmed for males, elderly, and for individuals with comorbidities. Flu vaccination seemed to have had a protective effect while pneumococcal vaccination likely identified a group of high-risk patients to be actively monitored. For patients infected in the territory, different hospitalisation strategies were implemented by the regional health districts.


Subject(s)
/epidemiology , Pandemics , Age Distribution , Aged , Angiotensin II Type 1 Receptor Blockers/pharmacology , Angiotensin Receptor Antagonists/pharmacology , Catchment Area, Health , Comorbidity , Databases, Factual , Female , Homes for the Aged/statistics & numerical data , Hospital Mortality , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Italy/epidemiology , Male , Medical Record Linkage , Middle Aged , Multivariate Analysis , Pneumococcal Vaccines , Residence Characteristics , Retrospective Studies , Sex Distribution , Vaccination/statistics & numerical data
16.
Epidemiol Prev ; 44(5-6 Suppl 2): 208-215, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1068141

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: the emergency due to SARS-CoV-2 pandemic struck the national and regional health system that needed an effort to reorganise and increase resources to cope with a sudden, uncertain, and previously unknown situation. This study was conducted in the immediate aftermath of this difficult period. OBJECTIVES: to describe clinical characteristics, short-term outcomes, and management of SARS-CoV-2 positive patients that accessed the emergency department (ED) of the San Luigi Gonzaga hospital of Orbassano (Turin district, Piedmont Region, Northern Italy) in March and April 2020. Furthermore, this study aimed at investigating if a difference in patients characteristics, clinical management, and outcomes was present during time. DESIGN: comparison of different periods in a clinical cohort. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: for each patient who accessed the ED and tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 swab, the ED medical record was collected and a descriptive analysis was performed on demographical characteristics, pre-existing comorbidities, parameters measured at triage, imaging exams results, lab tests results, separately for patients admitted at the ED in four different periods. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: discharge from ED, admission to hospital wards (low and high intensity of care), short term in-hospital mortality, hospital length of stay. The association between patients' characteristics and the main outcomes was measured using multivariable logistic models. RESULTS: age of patients increased significantly from March to April, together with female prevalence and associated comorbid conditions. A significant difference in symptoms at presentation was not observed nor it was in laboratory test results. Severity at triage and need of intensive care resources were higher in the first weeks, together with the typical clinical presentation with respiratory failure and imaging with signs of bilateral interstitial pneumonia. Accordingly, in-hospital mortality was higher in the first period. Nevertheless, nearly half of patients in the first period were discharged directly from ED showing mild COVID-19 cases. On the contrary, in April an increasing need of hospitalisation in low intensity of care beds was observed, whereas mild cases stopped to access the ED. CONCLUSIONS: the results of this study suggest that in few weeks of COVID-19 epidemic both management of the patients at the hospital level - and probably at territorial level resulting in a different population who accessed to the ED - and the clinical characteristics of the COVID-19 patients changed.


Subject(s)
/epidemiology , Emergency Service, Hospital/statistics & numerical data , Pandemics , Age Distribution , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , /drug therapy , Comorbidity , Disease Management , Female , Hospital Mortality , Hospitals, Urban/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Italy/epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged , Mutation , Patient Discharge , Retrospective Studies , /isolation & purification , Sex Distribution , Symptom Assessment , Time Factors , Treatment Outcome , Triage
17.
Med J Aust ; 214(1): 23-30, 2021 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1067923

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: To describe the characteristics and outcomes of patients with COVID-19 admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) during the initial months of the pandemic in Australia. DESIGN, SETTING: Prospective, observational cohort study in 77 ICUs across Australia. PARTICIPANTS: Patients admitted to participating ICUs with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 during 27 February - 30 June 2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: ICU mortality and resource use (ICU length of stay, peak bed occupancy). RESULTS: The median age of the 204 patients with COVID-19 admitted to intensive care was 63.5 years (IQR, 53-72 years); 140 were men (69%). The most frequent comorbid conditions were obesity (40% of patients), diabetes (28%), hypertension treated with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin II receptor blockers (24%), and chronic cardiac disease (20%); 73 patients (36%) reported no comorbidity. The most frequent source of infection was overseas travel (114 patients, 56%). Median peak ICU bed occupancy was 14% (IQR, 9-16%). Invasive ventilation was provided for 119 patients (58%). Median length of ICU stay was greater for invasively ventilated patients than for non-ventilated patients (16 days; IQR, 9-28 days v 3 days; IQR, 2-5 days), as was ICU mortality (26 deaths, 22%; 95% CI, 15-31% v four deaths, 5%; 95% CI, 1-12%). Higher Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE-II) scores on ICU day 1 (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.15; 95% CI, 1.09-1.21) and chronic cardiac disease (aHR, 3.38; 95% CI, 1.46-7.83) were each associated with higher ICU mortality. CONCLUSION: Until the end of June 2020, mortality among patients with COVID-19 who required invasive ventilation in Australian ICUs was lower and their ICU stay longer than reported overseas. Our findings highlight the importance of ensuring adequate local ICU capacity, particularly as the pandemic has not yet ended.


Subject(s)
/mortality , Hospital Mortality , Intensive Care Units/statistics & numerical data , Length of Stay/statistics & numerical data , Pandemics , APACHE , Aged , Australia/epidemiology , Comorbidity , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Prospective Studies , Respiration, Artificial , Survival Analysis
18.
PLoS One ; 16(1): e0245281, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1067411

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUNDS: Validated tools for predicting individual in-hospital mortality of COVID-19 are lacking. We aimed to develop and to validate a simple clinical prediction rule for early identification of in-hospital mortality of patients with COVID-19. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We enrolled 2191 consecutive hospitalized patients with COVID-19 from three Italian dedicated units (derivation cohort: 1810 consecutive patients from Bergamo and Pavia units; validation cohort: 381 consecutive patients from Rome unit). The outcome was in-hospital mortality. Fine and Gray competing risks multivariate model (with discharge as a competing event) was used to develop a prediction rule for in-hospital mortality. Discrimination and calibration were assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and by Brier score in both the derivation and validation cohorts. Seven variables were independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality: age (Hazard Ratio [HR] 1.08, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.07-1.09), male sex (HR 1.62, 95%CI 1.30-2.00), duration of symptoms before hospital admission <10 days (HR 1.72, 95%CI 1.39-2.12), diabetes (HR 1.21, 95%CI 1.02-1.45), coronary heart disease (HR 1.40 95% CI 1.09-1.80), chronic liver disease (HR 1.78, 95%CI 1.16-2.72), and lactate dehydrogenase levels at admission (HR 1.0003, 95%CI 1.0002-1.0005). The AUC was 0.822 (95%CI 0.722-0.922) in the derivation cohort and 0.820 (95%CI 0.724-0.920) in the validation cohort with good calibration. The prediction rule is freely available as a web-app (COVID-CALC: https://sites.google.com/community.unipa.it/covid-19riskpredictions/c19-rp). CONCLUSIONS: A validated simple clinical prediction rule can promptly and accurately assess the risk for in-hospital mortality, improving triage and the management of patients with COVID-19.


Subject(s)
/mortality , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Cohort Studies , Female , Hospital Mortality , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Italy/epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged , Mobile Applications , ROC Curve , Retrospective Studies , Risk Assessment/methods , Risk Factors , /isolation & purification
19.
Respir Res ; 22(1): 37, 2021 Feb 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1067236

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Comorbidities play a key role in severe disease outcomes in COVID-19 patients. However, the literature on preexisting respiratory diseases and COVID-19, accounting for other possible confounders, is limited. The primary objective of this study was to determine the association between preexisting respiratory diseases and severe disease outcomes among COVID-19 patients. Secondary aim was to investigate any correlation between smoking and clinical outcomes in COVID-19 patients. METHODS:  This is a multihospital retrospective cohort study on 1871 adult patients between March 10, 2020, and June 30, 2020, with laboratory confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis. The main outcomes of the study were severe disease outcomes i.e. mortality, need for mechanical ventilation, and intensive care unit (ICU) admission. During statistical analysis, possible confounders such as age, sex, race, BMI, and comorbidities including, hypertension, coronary artery disease, congestive heart failure, diabetes, any history of cancer and prior liver disease, chronic kidney disease, end-stage renal disease on dialysis, hyperlipidemia and history of prior stroke, were accounted for. RESULTS:  A total of 1871 patients (mean (SD) age, 64.11 (16) years; 965(51.6%) males; 1494 (79.9%) African Americans; 809 (43.2%) with ≥ 3 comorbidities) were included in the study. During their stay at the hospital, 613 patients (32.8%) died, 489 (26.1%) needed mechanical ventilation, and 592 (31.6%) required ICU admission. In fully adjusted models, patients with preexisting respiratory diseases had significantly higher mortality (adjusted Odds ratio (aOR), 1.36; 95% CI, 1.08-1.72; p = 0.01), higher rate of ICU admission (aOR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.07-1.68; p = 0.009) and increased need for mechanical ventilation (aOR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.07-1.72; p = 0.01). Additionally, patients with a history of smoking had significantly higher need for ICU admission (aOR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.01-1.55; p = 0.03) in fully adjusted models. CONCLUSION:  Preexisting respiratory diseases are an important predictor for mortality and severe disease outcomes, in COVID-19 patients. These results can help facilitate efficient resource allocation for critical care services.


Subject(s)
African Americans , /therapy , Respiration Disorders/mortality , Respiration Disorders/therapy , Aged , Cohort Studies , Female , Hospital Mortality/trends , Hospitalization/trends , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Preexisting Condition Coverage , Respiration Disorders/diagnosis , Respiration, Artificial/mortality , Respiration, Artificial/trends , Retrospective Studies , Treatment Outcome
20.
Respir Res ; 22(1): 16, 2021 Jan 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1067233

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Some studies investigated epidemiological and clinical features of laboratory-confirmed patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) the virus causing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but limited attention has been paid to the follow-up of hospitalized patients on the basis of clinical setting and the expertise of clinical management. METHODS: In the present single-centered, retrospective, observational study, we reported findings from 87 consecutive laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients with moderate-to-severe acute respiratory syndrome hospitalized in an intermediate Respiratory Intensive Care Unit (RICU), subdividing the patients in two groups according to the admission date (before and after March 29, 2020). RESULTS: With improved skills in the clinical management of COVID-19, we observed a significant lower mortality in the T2 group compared with the T1 group and a significantly difference in terms of mortality among the patients transferred in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) from our intermediate RICU (100% in T1 group vs. 33.3% in T2 group). The average length of stay in intermediate RICU of ICU-transferred patients who survived in T1 and T2 was significantly longer than those who died (who died 3.3 ± 2.8 days vs. who survived 6.4 ± 3.3 days). T CONCLUSIONS: The present findings suggested that an intermediate level of hospital care may have the potential to modify survival in COVID-19 patients, particularly in the present phase of a more skilled clinical management of the pandemic.


Subject(s)
/therapy , Clinical Competence , Critical Care , Intensive Care Units , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , /mortality , Female , Hospital Mortality , Humans , Italy , Length of Stay , Male , Middle Aged , Patient Admission , Retrospective Studies , Severity of Illness Index , Time Factors , Treatment Outcome
SELECTION OF CITATIONS
SEARCH DETAIL