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2.
Euro Surveill ; 25(25)2020 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-621605

ABSTRACT

Sentinel surveillance of acute hospitalisations in response to infectious disease emergencies such as the 2009 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic is well described, but recognition of its potential to supplement routine public health surveillance and provide scalability for emergency responses has been limited. We summarise the achievements of two national paediatric hospital surveillance networks relevant to vaccine programmes and emerging infectious diseases in Canada (Canadian Immunization Monitoring Program Active; IMPACT from 1991) and Australia (Paediatric Active Enhanced Disease Surveillance; PAEDS from 2007) and discuss opportunities and challenges in applying their model to other contexts. Both networks were established to enhance capacity to measure vaccine preventable disease burden, vaccine programme impact, and safety, with their scope occasionally being increased with emerging infectious diseases' surveillance. Their active surveillance has increased data accuracy and utility for syndromic conditions (e.g. encephalitis), pathogen-specific diseases (e.g. pertussis, rotavirus, influenza), and adverse events following immunisation (e.g. febrile seizure), enabled correlation of biological specimens with clinical context and supported responses to emerging infections (e.g. pandemic influenza, parechovirus, COVID-19). The demonstrated long-term value of continuous, rather than incident-related, operation of these networks in strengthening routine surveillance, bridging research gaps, and providing scalable public health response, supports their applicability to other countries.


Subject(s)
Hospitals, Pediatric/statistics & numerical data , Immunization Programs/standards , Patient Admission/statistics & numerical data , Population Surveillance/methods , Vaccination/adverse effects , Vaccines/administration & dosage , Australia/epidemiology , Canada/epidemiology , Child , Child, Preschool , Data Accuracy , Health Policy , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Humans , National Health Programs/standards , Public Health Surveillance , Vaccination/statistics & numerical data
3.
Eur Respir J ; 56(2)2020 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-744960

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has globally strained medical resources and caused significant mortality. OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a machine-learning model based on clinical features for severity risk assessment and triage for COVID-19 patients at hospital admission. METHOD: 725 patients were used to train and validate the model. This included a retrospective cohort from Wuhan, China of 299 hospitalised COVID-19 patients from 23 December 2019 to 13 February 2020, and five cohorts with 426 patients from eight centres in China, Italy and Belgium from 20 February 2020 to 21 March 2020. The main outcome was the onset of severe or critical illness during hospitalisation. Model performances were quantified using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and metrics derived from the confusion matrix. RESULTS: In the retrospective cohort, the median age was 50 years and 137 (45.8%) were male. In the five test cohorts, the median age was 62 years and 236 (55.4%) were male. The model was prospectively validated on five cohorts yielding AUCs ranging from 0.84 to 0.93, with accuracies ranging from 74.4% to 87.5%, sensitivities ranging from 75.0% to 96.9%, and specificities ranging from 55.0% to 88.0%, most of which performed better than the pneumonia severity index. The cut-off values of the low-, medium- and high-risk probabilities were 0.21 and 0.80. The online calculators can be found at www.covid19risk.ai. CONCLUSION: The machine-learning model, nomogram and online calculator might be useful to access the onset of severe and critical illness among COVID-19 patients and triage at hospital admission.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/diagnosis , Hospital Mortality/trends , Machine Learning , Pneumonia, Viral/diagnosis , Triage/methods , Adult , Age Factors , Aged , Area Under Curve , Belgium , China , Clinical Laboratory Techniques , Cohort Studies , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Decision Support Systems, Clinical , Female , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Internationality , Italy , Male , Middle Aged , Pandemics/statistics & numerical data , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Predictive Value of Tests , ROC Curve , Reproducibility of Results , Retrospective Studies , Risk Assessment , Severity of Illness Index , Sex Factors , Survival Analysis
4.
Medicine (Baltimore) ; 99(35): e21700, 2020 Aug 28.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-740200

ABSTRACT

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has become a global health threat and will likely be one of the greatest global challenges in the near future. The battle between clinicians and the COVID-19 outbreak may be a "protracted war."The objective of this study was to investigate the risk factors for in-hospital mortality in patients with COVID-19, so as to provide a reference for the early diagnosis and treatment.This study retrospectively enrolled 118 patients diagnosed with COVID-19, who were admitted to Eastern District of Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University from February 04, 2020 to March 04, 2020. The demographics and laboratory data were collected and compared between survivors and nonsurvivors. The risk factors of in-hospital mortality were explored by univariable and multivariable logistic regression to construct a clinical prediction model, the prediction efficiency of which was verified by receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve.A total of 118 patients (49 males and 69 females) were included in this study; the results revealed that the following factors associated with in-hospital mortality: older age (odds ratio [OR] 1.175, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.073-1.287, P = .001), neutrophil count greater than 6.3 × 10 cells/L (OR 7.174, (95% CI 2.295-22.432, P = .001), lymphocytopenia (OR 0.069, 95% CI 0.007-0.722, P = .026), prothrombin time >13 seconds (OR 11.869, 95% CI 1.433-98.278, P = .022), D-dimer >1 mg/L (OR 22.811, 95% CI 2.224-233.910, P = .008) and procalcitonin (PCT) >0.1 ng/mL (OR 23.022, 95% CI 3.108-170.532, P = .002). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the above indicators for predicting in-hospital mortality were 0.808 (95% CI 0.715-0.901), 0.809 (95% CI 0.710-0.907), 0.811 (95% CI 0.724-0.898), 0.745 (95% CI 0.643-0.847), 0.872 (95% CI 0.804-0.940), 0.881 (95% CI 0.809-0.953), respectively. The AUC of combined diagnosis of these aforementioned factors were 0.992 (95% CI 0.981-1.000).In conclusion, older age, increased neutrophil count, prothrombin time, D-dimer, PCT, and decreased lymphocyte count at admission were risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality of COVID-19. The prediction model combined of these factors could improve the early identification of mortality risk in COVID-19 patients.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections , Fibrin Fibrinogen Degradation Products/analysis , Leukocyte Count , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral , Procalcitonin/analysis , Prothrombin Time , Adult , Aged , Betacoronavirus , China/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/blood , Coronavirus Infections/immunology , Coronavirus Infections/mortality , Female , Hospital Mortality , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Leukocyte Count/methods , Leukocyte Count/statistics & numerical data , Male , Pneumonia, Viral/blood , Pneumonia, Viral/immunology , Pneumonia, Viral/mortality , Predictive Value of Tests , Prognosis , Prothrombin Time/methods , Prothrombin Time/statistics & numerical data , Retrospective Studies , Risk Assessment/methods , Risk Factors
5.
Nat Commun ; 11(1): 4264, 2020 08 26.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-733526

ABSTRACT

The pressing need to restart socioeconomic activities locked-down to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Italy must be coupled with effective methodologies to selectively relax containment measures. Here we employ a spatially explicit model, properly attentive to the role of inapparent infections, capable of: estimating the expected unfolding of the outbreak under continuous lockdown (baseline trajectory); assessing deviations from the baseline, should lockdown relaxations result in increased disease transmission; calculating the isolation effort required to prevent a resurgence of the outbreak. A 40% increase in effective transmission would yield a rebound of infections. A control effort capable of isolating daily  ~5.5% of the exposed and highly infectious individuals proves necessary to maintain the epidemic curve onto the decreasing baseline trajectory. We finally provide an ex-post assessment based on the epidemiological data that became available after the initial analysis and estimate the actual disease transmission that occurred after weakening the lockdown.


Subject(s)
Communicable Disease Control/standards , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control , Pandemics/prevention & control , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control , Basic Reproduction Number , Betacoronavirus , Communicable Disease Control/trends , Coronavirus Infections/transmission , Forecasting , Geography , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Hospitalization/trends , Humans , Italy/epidemiology , Models, Theoretical , Pneumonia, Viral/transmission , Social Isolation
6.
Medicine (Baltimore) ; 99(34): e21824, 2020 Aug 21.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-733318

ABSTRACT

In December 2019, a cluster of coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) occurred in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. The present study was conducted to report the clinical characteristics of 201 COVID-19 patients in Changsha, China, a city outside of Wuhan. All of the patients with confirmed COVID-19 were admitted to the First Hospital of Changsha City, the designated hospital for COVID-19 assigned by the Changsha City Government. The clinical and epidemiological characteristics, data of laboratory, radiological picture, treatment, and outcomes records of 201 COVID-19 patients were collected using electronic medical records. This study population consisted of 201 hospitalized patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 in Changsha by April 28, 2020. The median age of the patients was 45 years (IQR 34-59). About half (50.7%) of the patients were male, and most of the infected patients were staff (96 [47.8%]). Concerning the epidemiologic history, the number of patients linked to Wuhan was 92 (45.8%). The most common symptoms were fever (125 [62.2%]), dry cough (118 [58.7%]), fatigue (65 [32.3%]), and pharyngalgia (31 [15.4%]). One hundred and forty-four (71.6%) enrolled patients showed bilateral pneumonia. Fifty-four (26.9%) patients showed unilateral involvement, and three (1.5%) patients showed no abnormal signs or symptoms. The laboratory findings differed significantly between the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) and non-ICU groups. Compared with non-ICU patients, ICU patients had depressed white blood cell (WBC), neutrocytes, lymphocytes, and prolonged prothrombin time (PT). Moreover, higher plasma levels of erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), alanine aminotransferase (ALA), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), creatine kinase (CK), creatine kinase-MB (CK-MB), creatinine (CREA), and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) were detected in the ICU group. In this single-center study of 201 COVID-19 patients in Changsha, China, 22.4% of patients were admitted to ICU. Based on our findings, we propose that the risk of cellular immune deficiency, hepatic injury, and kidney injury should be monitored. Previous reports focused on the clinical features of patients from Wuhan, China. With the global epidemic of COVID-19, we should pay more attention to the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of patients outside of Wuhan.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/physiopathology , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/physiopathology , Adult , Betacoronavirus , China/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/complications , Cough/epidemiology , Female , Fever/epidemiology , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Intensive Care Units/statistics & numerical data , Male , Middle Aged , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/complications , Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction
7.
PLoS One ; 15(8): e0238281, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-732997

ABSTRACT

This is a population-based prospective cohort study on archive data describing the age- and sex-specific prevalence of COVID-19 and its prognostic factors. All 2653 symptomatic patients tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 from February 27 to April 2, 2020 in the Reggio Emilia province, Italy, were included. COVID-19 cumulative incidence, hospitalization and death rates, and adjusted hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were calculated according to sociodemographic and clinical characteristics. Females had higher prevalence of infection than males below age 50 (2.61 vs. 1.84 ‰), but lower in older ages (16.49 vs. 20.86 ‰ over age 80). Case fatality rate reached 20.7% in cases with more than 4 weeks follow up. After adjusting for age and comorbidities, men had a higher risk of hospitalization (HR 1.4 95% CI 1.2 to 1.6) and of death (HR 1.6, 95% CI 1.2 to 2.1). Patients over age 80 compared to age < 50 had HR 7.1 (95% CI 5.4 to 9.3) and HR 27.8 (95% CI 12.5 to 61.7) for hospitalization and death, respectively. Immigrants had a higher risk of hospitalization (HR 1.3, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.81) than Italians and a similar risk of death. Risk of hospitalization and of death were higher in patients with heart failure, arrhythmia, dementia, coronary heart disease, diabetes, and hypertension, while COPD increased the risk of hospitalization (HR 1.9, 95% CI 1.4 to 2.5) but not of death (HR 1.1, 95% CI 0.7 to 1.7). Previous use of ACE inhibitors had no effect on risk of death (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.69 to 1.34). Identified susceptible populations and fragile patients should be considered when setting priorities in public health planning and clinical decision making.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Age Distribution , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Betacoronavirus , Comorbidity , Coronavirus Infections/mortality , Emigrants and Immigrants/statistics & numerical data , Female , Humans , Incidence , Italy/epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/mortality , Proportional Hazards Models , Prospective Studies , Risk Factors , Sex Distribution
10.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep ; 69(34): 1173-1176, 2020 Aug 28.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-732628

ABSTRACT

State and local health departments in the United States are using various indicators to identify differences in rates of reported coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and severe COVID-19 outcomes, including hospitalizations and deaths. To inform mitigation efforts, on May 19, 2020, the Kentucky Department for Public Health (KDPH) implemented a reporting system to monitor five indicators of state-level COVID-19 status to assess the ability to safely reopen: 1) composite syndromic surveillance data, 2) the number of new COVID-19 cases,* 3) the number of COVID-19-associated deaths,† 4) health care capacity data, and 5) public health capacity for contact tracing (contact tracing capacity). Using standardized methods, KDPH compiles an indicator monitoring report (IMR) to provide daily analysis of these five indicators, which are combined with publicly available data into a user-friendly composite status that KDPH and local policy makers use to assess state-level COVID-19 hazard status. During May 19-July 15, 2020, Kentucky reported 12,742 COVID-19 cases, and 299 COVID-19-related deaths (1). The mean composite state-level hazard status during May 19-July 15 was 2.5 (fair to moderate). IMR review led to county-level hotspot identification (identification of counties meeting criteria for temporal increases in number of cases and incidence) and facilitated collaboration among KDPH and local authorities on decisions regarding mitigation efforts. Kentucky's IMR might easily be adopted by state and local health departments in other jurisdictions to guide decision-making for COVID-19 mitigation, response, and reopening.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control , Epidemiological Monitoring , Pandemics/prevention & control , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control , Coronavirus Infections/mortality , Coronavirus Infections/therapy , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Kentucky/epidemiology , Mortality/trends , Pneumonia, Viral/mortality , Pneumonia, Viral/therapy , Public Health Practice
11.
Clin Interv Aging ; 15: 1427-1437, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-732243

ABSTRACT

Purpose: Demographic change and lack of specialized workforces are challenging. Likewise, home visits by general practitioners (GPs) become rarer. If a nursing home resident develops acute symptoms, nurses are often inclined to call the rescue service. Besides patient-related consequences, this might lead to unnecessary hospitalization and far-reaching health economic costs. Due to legal restrictions of remote treatment in Germany, which were recently loosened, telemedicine is still in the early stages. The aim of this study was to employ a holistic telemedical system for nursing homes which facilitates the connection to a GP and thus avoids unnecessary hospitalizations in the case of ambulatory-sensitive illnesses. Materials and Methods: After an inter-professional requirement analysis, the iterative development was started. In addition to an audio-video connection, several point of care measurements were integrated. Finally, first field tests were performed in a nursing home in a rural area in Germany. Results: One nursing home was equipped with telemedical system based on the results of the requirement analysis and tele-medically connected to a GP. Over a period of seven months, 56 routine and emergency teleconsultations took place. Only one of those required a hospital admission. In addition to video telephony, electrocardiography and assessment of vitals such as pulse, blood pressure, oxygen saturation and auscultation of heart and lungs were applied frequently. Conclusion: A telemedical system including integrated medical devices was successfully developed and has turned out to be helpful and even necessary for careful and reliable decision-making by the GP. First test results show high acceptance for elderly care. Involved patients, nurses, and the GP itemize various specific benefits, including economic, personal, and altruistic issues. Another issue that the current COVID-19 crisis brought to light is lowering the risk of contagion; GPs can replace their home visits by using telepresence combined with point of care measures.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections , General Practice/methods , Nursing Homes , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral , Remote Consultation/methods , Remote Consultation/organization & administration , Aged , Betacoronavirus , Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control , Female , Germany , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Male , Pandemics/prevention & control , Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control , Remote Consultation/instrumentation , Software , Surveys and Questionnaires
12.
Am J Pathol ; 190(9): 1881-1887, 2020 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-726391

ABSTRACT

The dynamics of viral load (VL) of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and its association with different clinical parameters remain poorly characterized in the US patient population. Herein, we investigate associations between VL and parameters, such as severity of symptoms, disposition (admission versus direct discharge), length of hospitalization, admission to the intensive care unit, length of oxygen support, and overall survival in 205 patients from a tertiary care center in New York City. VL was determined using quantitative PCR and log10 transformed for normalization. Associations were tested with univariate and multivariate regression models. Diagnostic VL was significantly lower in hospitalized patients than in patients not hospitalized (log10 VL = 3.3 versus 4.0; P = 0.018) after adjusting for age, sex, race, body mass index, and comorbidities. Higher VL was associated with shorter duration of the symptoms in all patients and hospitalized patients only and shorter hospital stay (coefficient = -2.02, -2.61, and -2.18; P < 0.001, P = 0.002, and P = 0.013, respectively). No significant association was noted between VL, admission to intensive care unit, length of oxygen support, and overall survival. Our findings suggest a higher shedding risk in less symptomatic patients, an important consideration for containment strategies. Furthermore, we identify a novel association between VL and history of cancer. Larger studies are warranted to validate our findings.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus/pathogenicity , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/therapy , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/therapy , Viral Load , Adult , Female , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , New York City/epidemiology , Pandemics , Risk Factors
13.
Tidsskr Nor Laegeforen ; 140(11)2020 08 18.
Article in English, Norwegian | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-725621

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Children and adolescents are at lower risk of disease caused by SARS-CoV-2. We describe the incidence of confirmed infection and hospitalisation of children and adolescents under the age of 20 in Norway, and specifically among those with underlying conditions. MATERIAL AND METHOD: The Norwegian Directorate of Health has collaborated with the Norwegian Institute of Public Health on the establishment of a data extraction system to monitor the coronavirus outbreak. Data from the specialist health service (Norwegian Patient Registry, NPR), and the primary health service (Norwegian Registry for Primary Health Care, NRPHC) are linked to data on positive SARS-CoV-2 tests from the Surveillance System for Communicable Diseases (MSIS). This covers all persons living in Norway as of 1 March 2020, with data on confirmed infection up to and including 13 May 2020 and on hospitalisations up to and including 30 April 2020. RESULTS: Of 8 125 persons with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 in the whole population, 493 (6.1 %) were under 20 years old. The median age of the under-20s was 15 years, and 252 (51 %) were girls. 3 % were hospitalised. No deaths were registered among patients aged under 20 in Norway. We found a somewhat larger share with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 in the group with diseases of the neuromuscular system. INTERPRETATION: Few children and adolescents have had SARS-CoV-2 confirmed, and only a very few have been hospitalised. Underlying conditions may result in a lower threshold for testing, and hence a higher incidence of confirmed infection in this group, although higher risk cannot be excluded.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Adolescent , Betacoronavirus , Child , Coronavirus Infections/diagnosis , Female , Humans , Male , Norway/epidemiology , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/diagnosis , Young Adult
15.
mSphere ; 5(4)2020 08 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-725309

ABSTRACT

Many coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients demonstrate lethal respiratory complications caused by cytokine release syndrome (CRS). Multiple cytokines have been implicated in CRS, but levels of tumor necrosis factor superfamily 14 (TNFSF14) (LIGHT) have not been previously measured in this setting. In this study, we observed significantly elevated serum LIGHT levels in hospitalized COVID-19 patients compared to healthy age- and gender-matched control patients. The assay detected bioavailable LIGHT unbound to the inhibitor Decoy receptor-3 (DcR3). Bioavailable LIGHT levels were elevated in patients both on and off ventilatory support, with a trend toward higher levels in patients requiring mechanical ventilation. In hospitalized patients over the age of 60, who exhibited a mortality rate of 82%, LIGHT levels were significantly higher (P = 0.0209) in those who died than in survivors. As previously reported, interleukin 6 (IL-6) levels were also elevated in these patients, with significantly (P = 0.0076) higher levels observed in patients who died than in survivors, paralleling the LIGHT levels. Although attempts to block IL-6 binding to its receptor have shown limited success in COVID-19 CRS, neutralization of LIGHT may prove to be more effective owing to its more central role in regulating antiviral immune responses. The findings presented here demonstrate that LIGHT is a cytokine which may play an important role in COVID-19 patients presenting with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and CRS and suggest that LIGHT neutralization may be beneficial to COVID-19 patients.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/immunology , Cytokine Release Syndrome/immunology , Cytokine Release Syndrome/virology , Pneumonia, Viral/immunology , Respiratory Distress Syndrome, Adult/immunology , Respiratory Distress Syndrome, Adult/virology , Tumor Necrosis Factor Ligand Superfamily Member 14/blood , Adult , Age Factors , Aged , Antibodies, Monoclonal/therapeutic use , Betacoronavirus , Clinical Trials as Topic , Coronavirus Infections/complications , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Interleukin-6/immunology , Middle Aged , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/complications , Respiration, Artificial/statistics & numerical data
17.
J Intensive Care Med ; 35(10): 963-970, 2020 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-722236

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The first confirmed case of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection in the United States was reported from the state of Washington in January, 2020. By March, 2020, New York City had become the epicenter of the outbreak in the United States. METHODS: We tracked all patients with confirmed coronavirus-19 (COVID-19) infection admitted to intensive care units (ICU) at Montefiore Medical Center (Bronx, NY). Data were obtained through manual review of electronic medical records. Patients had at least 30 days of follow-up. RESULTS: Our first 300 ICU patients were admitted March 10 through April 11, 2020. The majority (60.7%) of patients were men. Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) was documented in 91.7% of patients; 91.3% required mechanical ventilation. Prone positioning was employed in 58% of patients and neuromuscular blockade in 47.8% of mechanically-ventilated patients. Neither intervention was associated with decreased mortality. Vasopressors were required in 77.7% of patients. Acute kidney injury (AKI) was present on admission in 40.7% of patients, and developed subsequently in 36.0%; 50.9% of patients with AKI received renal replacement therapy (RRT). Overall 30-day mortality rate was 52.3%, and 55.8% among patients receiving mechanical ventilation. In univariate analysis, higher mortality rate was associated with increasing age, male sex, hypertension, obesity, smoking, number of comorbidities, AKI on presentation, and need for vasopressor support. A representative multivariable model for 30-day mortality is also presented, containing patient age, gender, body mass index, and AKI at admission. As of May 11, 2020, 2 patients (0.7%) remained hospitalized. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality in critical illness associated with COVID-19 is high. The majority of patients develop ARDS requiring mechanical ventilation, vasopressor-dependent shock, and AKI. The variation in mortality rates reported to date likely reflects differences in the severity of illness of the evaluated populations.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus , Coronavirus Infections/mortality , Critical Care/statistics & numerical data , Critical Illness/mortality , Pneumonia, Viral/mortality , Acute Kidney Injury/mortality , Acute Kidney Injury/virology , Adult , Aged , Coronavirus Infections/complications , Critical Care/methods , Female , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Intensive Care Units/statistics & numerical data , Male , Middle Aged , New York City/epidemiology , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/complications , Respiration, Artificial/mortality , Respiratory Distress Syndrome, Adult/mortality , Respiratory Distress Syndrome, Adult/virology
18.
J Med Internet Res ; 22(9): e21758, 2020 09 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-714139

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: During the initial phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was an unfounded fervor surrounding the use of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) and tocilizumab (TCZ); however, evidence on their efficacy and safety have been controversial. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study is to evaluate the overall clinical effectiveness of HCQ and TCZ in patients with COVID-19. We hypothesize that HCQ and TCZ use in these patients will be associated with a reduction in in-hospital mortality, upgrade to intensive medical care, invasive mechanical ventilation, or acute renal failure needing dialysis. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was performed to determine the impact of HCQ and TCZ use on hard clinical outcomes during hospitalization. A total of 176 hospitalized patients with a confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis was included. Patients were divided into two comparison groups: (1) HCQ (n=144) vs no-HCQ (n=32) and (2) TCZ (n=32) vs no-TCZ (n=144). The mean age, baseline comorbidities, and other medications used during hospitalization were uniformly distributed among all the groups. Independent t tests and multivariate logistic regression analysis were performed to calculate mean differences and adjusted odds ratios with 95% CIs, respectively. RESULTS: The unadjusted odds ratio for patients upgraded to a higher level of care (ie, intensive care unit) (OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.19-5.69; P=.003) and reductions in C-reactive protein (CRP) level on day 7 of hospitalization (21% vs 56%, OR 0.21, 95% CI 0.08-0.55; P=.002) were significantly higher in the TCZ group compared to the control group. There was no significant difference in the odds of in-hospital mortality, upgrade to intensive medical care, need for invasive mechanical ventilation, acute kidney failure necessitating dialysis, or discharge from the hospital after recovery in both the HCQ and TCZ groups compared to their respective control groups. Adjusted odds ratios controlled for baseline comorbidities and medications closely followed the unadjusted estimates. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of patients with COVID-19, neither HCQ nor TCZ offered a significant reduction in in-hospital mortality, upgrade to intensive medical care, invasive mechanical ventilation, or acute renal failure needing dialysis. These results are similar to the recently published preliminary results of the HCQ arm of the Recovery trial, which showed no clinical benefit from the use of HCQ in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 (the TCZ arm is ongoing). Double-blinded randomized controlled trials are needed to further evaluate the impact of these drugs in larger patient samples so that data-driven guidelines can be deduced to combat this global pandemic.


Subject(s)
Antibodies, Monoclonal, Humanized/therapeutic use , Coronavirus Infections/drug therapy , Coronavirus Infections/mortality , Hospital Mortality , Hydroxychloroquine/therapeutic use , Pneumonia, Viral/drug therapy , Pneumonia, Viral/mortality , Aged , Antibodies, Monoclonal, Humanized/pharmacology , Female , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Hydroxychloroquine/adverse effects , Hydroxychloroquine/pharmacology , Male , Middle Aged , Odds Ratio , Pandemics , Retrospective Studies , Treatment Outcome
19.
Elife ; 92020 08 13.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-714074

ABSTRACT

As of 1 May 2020, there had been 6808 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. Of these, 98 had died from the disease. The epidemic had been in decline since mid-March, with 308 cases confirmed nationally since 14 April. This suggests that the collective actions of the Australian public and government authorities in response to COVID-19 were sufficiently early and assiduous to avert a public health crisis - for now. Analysing factors that contribute to individual country experiences of COVID-19, such as the intensity and timing of public health interventions, will assist in the next stage of response planning globally. We describe how the epidemic and public health response unfolded in Australia up to 13 April. We estimate that the effective reproduction number was likely below one in each Australian state since mid-March and forecast that clinical demand would remain below capacity thresholds over the forecast period (from mid-to-late April).


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Adolescent , Adult , Age Distribution , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Australia/epidemiology , Child , Child, Preschool , Communicable Disease Control/methods , Communicable Disease Control/organization & administration , Communicable Disease Control/statistics & numerical data , Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control , Female , Forecasting , Geography, Medical , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Male , Middle Aged , Pandemics/prevention & control , Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control , Public Health , Quarantine , Travel , Young Adult
20.
Rheumatol Int ; 40(10): 1593-1598, 2020 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-713879

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To describe clinical characteristics of patients with rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (RMDs) and immunosuppressive therapies with Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) at an academic rheumatology center in Madrid and to identify baseline variables associated with a severe infection requiring hospitalization. METHODS: We identified SARS-CoV-2 positive cases by polymerase chain reaction performed at our center within an updated RMDs database in our clinic. Additional RMDs patients were identified when they contacted the clinic because of a positive infection. Data extraction included diagnosis, demographics, immunosuppressive treatment, comorbidities, and laboratory tests. Comparisons between patients with or without hospitalization were performed. Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze associations between baseline variables and need for hospitalization. RESULTS: A total of 62 patients with COVID-19 and underlying RMDs were identified by April 24, 2020. Median age was 60.9 years, and 42% men. Forty-two patients required hospitalization; these were more frequently men, older and with comorbidities. There were no statistically significant between-group differences for rheumatologic diagnosis and for baseline use of immunosuppressive therapy except for glucocorticoids that were more frequent in hospitalized patients. Total deaths were 10 (16%) patients. In multivariate analysis, male sex (odds ratio [OR], 8.63; p = 0.018), previous lung disease (OR, 27.47; p = 0.042), and glucocorticoids use (> 5 mg/day) (OR, 9.95; p = 0.019) were significantly associated to hospitalization. CONCLUSION: Neither specific RMD diagnoses or exposures to DMARDs were associated with increased odds of hospitalization. Being male, previous lung disease and exposure to glucocorticoids were associated with higher odds of hospitalization in RMDs patients.


Subject(s)
Arthritis, Psoriatic/drug therapy , Arthritis, Rheumatoid/drug therapy , Coronavirus Infections/physiopathology , Glucocorticoids/therapeutic use , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Immunosuppressive Agents/therapeutic use , Lupus Erythematosus, Systemic/drug therapy , Pneumonia, Viral/physiopathology , Aged , Anti-Bacterial Agents/therapeutic use , Antibodies, Monoclonal, Humanized/therapeutic use , Antirheumatic Agents/therapeutic use , Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use , Arthritis, Psoriatic/complications , Arthritis, Psoriatic/epidemiology , Arthritis, Rheumatoid/complications , Arthritis, Rheumatoid/epidemiology , Autoimmune Diseases/complications , Autoimmune Diseases/drug therapy , Autoimmune Diseases/epidemiology , Azithromycin/therapeutic use , Betacoronavirus , Comorbidity , Coronavirus Infections/complications , Coronavirus Infections/drug therapy , Coronavirus Infections/mortality , Coronavirus Infections/therapy , Drug Combinations , Female , Humans , Hydroxychloroquine/therapeutic use , Logistic Models , Lopinavir/therapeutic use , Lung Diseases/epidemiology , Lupus Erythematosus, Systemic/complications , Lupus Erythematosus, Systemic/epidemiology , Male , Middle Aged , Multivariate Analysis , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/complications , Pneumonia, Viral/mortality , Pneumonia, Viral/therapy , Retrospective Studies , Ritonavir/therapeutic use , Severity of Illness Index , Sex Factors , Spain/epidemiology
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