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1.
JAMA Netw Open ; 3(9): e2020485, 2020 09 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-746364

ABSTRACT

Importance: A stay-at-home social distancing mandate is a key nonpharmacological measure to reduce the transmission rate of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), but a high rate of adherence is needed. Objective: To examine the association between the rate of human mobility changes and the rate of confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used daily travel distance and home dwell time derived from millions of anonymous mobile phone location data from March 11 to April 10, 2020, provided by the Descartes Labs and SafeGraph to quantify the degree to which social distancing mandates were followed in the 50 US states and District of Columbia and the association of mobility changes with rates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases. Exposure: State-level stay-at-home orders during the COVID-19 pandemic. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was the association of state-specific rates of COVID-19 confirmed cases with the change rates of median travel distance and median home dwell time of anonymous mobile phone users. The increase rates are measured by the exponent in curve fitting of the COVID-19 cumulative confirmed cases, while the mobility change (increase or decrease) rates were measured by the slope coefficient in curve fitting of median travel distance and median home dwell time for each state. Results: Data from more than 45 million anonymous mobile phone devices were analyzed. The correlation between the COVID-19 increase rate and travel distance decrease rate was -0.586 (95% CI, -0.742 to -0.370) and the correlation between COVID-19 increase rate and home dwell time increase rate was 0.526 (95% CI, 0.293 to 0.700). Increases in state-specific doubling time of total cases ranged from 1.0 to 6.9 days (median [interquartile range], 2.7 [2.3-3.3] days) before stay-at-home orders were enacted to 3.7 to 30.3 days (median [interquartile range], 6.0 [4.8-7.1] days) after stay-at-home social distancing orders were put in place, consistent with pandemic modeling results. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that stay-at-home social distancing mandates, when they were followed by measurable mobility changes, were associated with reduction in COVID-19 spread. These results come at a particularly critical period when US states are beginning to relax social distancing policies and reopen their economies. These findings support the efficacy of social distancing and could help inform future implementation of social distancing policies should they need to be reinstated during later periods of COVID-19 reemergence.


Subject(s)
Cell Phone , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Travel/statistics & numerical data , Betacoronavirus , Coronavirus Infections/transmission , Cross-Sectional Studies , Geographic Information Systems , Humans , Linear Models , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/transmission , United States/epidemiology
2.
SAR QSAR Environ Res ; 31(9): 643-654, 2020 Sep.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-733459

ABSTRACT

A quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) model was built from a dataset of 54 peptide-type compounds as SARS-CoV inhibitors. The analysis was executed to identify prominent and hidden structural features that govern anti-SARS-CoV activity. The QSAR model was derived from the genetic algorithm-multi-linear regression (GA-MLR) methodology. This resulted in the generation of a statistically robust and highly predictive model. In addition, it satisfied the OECD principles for QSAR validation. The model was validated thoroughly and fulfilled the threshold values of a battery of statistical parameters (e.g. r 2 = 0.87, Q 2 loo = 0.82). The derived model is successful in identifying many atom-pairs as important structural features that govern the anti-SARS-CoV activity of peptide-type compounds. The newly developed model has a good balance of descriptive and statistical approaches. Consequently, the present work is useful for future modifications of peptide-type compounds for SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 activity.


Subject(s)
Antiviral Agents , Betacoronavirus/drug effects , Peptides , Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship , Antiviral Agents/chemistry , Antiviral Agents/pharmacology , Betacoronavirus/enzymology , Cysteine Endopeptidases , Inhibitory Concentration 50 , Linear Models , Molecular Structure , Peptides/chemistry , Peptides/pharmacology , Viral Nonstructural Proteins/antagonists & inhibitors
3.
Epidemiol Infect ; 148: e188, 2020 08 24.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-728955

ABSTRACT

This study aimed to analyse the trend and spatial-temporal clusters of risk of transmission of COVID-19 in northeastern Brazil. We conducted an ecological study using spatial and temporal trend analysis. All confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the Northeast region of Brazil were included, from 7 March to 22 May 2020. We used the segmented log-linear regression model to assess time trends, and the local empirical Bayesian estimator, the global and local Moran indexes for spatial analysis. The prospective space-time scan statistic was performed using the Poisson probability distribution model. There were 113 951 confirmed cases of COVID-19. The average incidence rate was 199.73 cases/100 000 inhabitants. We observed an increasing trend in the incidence rate in all states. Spatial autocorrelation was reported in metropolitan areas, and 178 municipalities were considered a priority, especially in the states of Ceará and Maranhão. We identified 11 spatiotemporal clusters of COVID-19 cases; the primary cluster included 70 municipalities from Ceará state. COVID-19 epidemic is increasing rapidly throughout the Northeast region of Brazil, with dispersion towards countryside. It was identified high risk clusters for COVID-19, especially in the coastal side.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/transmission , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/transmission , Spatio-Temporal Analysis , Betacoronavirus , Brazil/epidemiology , Cities , Humans , Linear Models , Pandemics
4.
Curr Med Sci ; 40(4): 625-635, 2020 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-697010

ABSTRACT

Nurses' work-related fatigue has been recognized as a threat to nurse health and patient safety. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of fatigue among first-line nurses combating with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China, and to analyze its influencing factors on fatigue. A multi-center, descriptive, cross-sectional design with a convenience sample was used. The statistical population consisted of the first-line nurses in 7 tertiary general hospitals from March 3, 2020 to March 10, 2020 in Wuhan of China. A total of 2667 samples from 2768 contacted participants completed the investgation, with a response rate of 96.35%. Social-demographic questionnaire, work-related questionnaire, Fatigue Scale-14, Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7, Patient Health Questionnaire-9, and Chinese Perceived Stress Scale were used to conduct online survey. The descriptive statistic of nurses' social-demographic characteristics was conducted, and the related variables of work, anxiety, depression, perceived stress and fatigue were analyzed by t-tests, nonparametric test and Pearson's correlation analysis. The significant factors which resulted in nurses' fatigue were further analyzed by multiple linear regression analysis. The median score for the first-line nurses' fatigue in Wuhan was 4 (2, 8). The median score of physical and mental fatigue of them was 3 (1, 6) and 1 (0, 3) respectively. According to the scoring criteria, 35.06% nurses (n=935) of all participants were in the fatigue status, their median score of fatigue was 10 (8, 11), and the median score of physical and mental fatigue of them was 7 (5, 8) and 3 (2, 4) respectively. Multiple linear regression analysis revealed the participants in the risk groups of anxiety, depression and perceived stress had higher scores on physical and mental fatigue and the statistically significant positive correlation was observed between the variables and nurses' fatigue, the frequency of exercise and nurses' fatigue had a statistically significant negative correlation, and average daily working hours had a significantly positive correlation with nurses' fatigue, and the frequency of weekly night shift had a low positive correlation with nurses' fatigue (P<0.01). There was a moderate level of fatigue among the first-line nurses fighting against COVID-19 pandemic in Wuhan, China. Government and health authorities need to formulate and take effective intervention strategies according to the relevant risk factors, and undertake preventive measures aimed at reducing health hazards due to increased work-related fatigue among first-line nurses, and to enhance their health status and provide a safe occupational environment worldwide. Promoting both medical and nursing safety while combating with the pandemic currently is warranted.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus , Coronavirus Infections/nursing , Fatigue/etiology , Nurses , Occupational Diseases/etiology , Occupational Stress/etiology , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/nursing , Adult , China/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Cross-Sectional Studies , Fatigue/epidemiology , Fatigue/psychology , Female , Humans , Linear Models , Male , Mental Fatigue/epidemiology , Mental Fatigue/etiology , Mental Fatigue/psychology , Middle Aged , Nurses/psychology , Occupational Diseases/epidemiology , Occupational Diseases/psychology , Occupational Stress/epidemiology , Occupational Stress/psychology , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Prevalence , Risk Factors , Surveys and Questionnaires , Tertiary Care Centers , Workload/psychology , Young Adult
5.
Chaos ; 30(7): 071101, 2020 Jul.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-695969

ABSTRACT

The ongoing novel coronavirus epidemic was announced a pandemic by the World Health Organization on March 11, 2020, and the Government of India declared a nationwide lockdown on March 25, 2020 to prevent community transmission of the coronavirus disease (COVID)-19. Due to the absence of specific antivirals or vaccine, mathematical modeling plays an important role in better understanding the disease dynamics and in designing strategies to control the rapidly spreading infectious disease. In our study, we developed a new compartmental model that explains the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. We calibrated our proposed model with daily COVID-19 data for four Indian states, namely, Jharkhand, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, and Chandigarh. We study the qualitative properties of the model, including feasible equilibria and their stability with respect to the basic reproduction number R0. The disease-free equilibrium becomes stable and the endemic equilibrium becomes unstable when the recovery rate of infected individuals increases, but if the disease transmission rate remains higher, then the endemic equilibrium always remains stable. For the estimated model parameters, R0>1 for all four states, which suggests the significant outbreak of COVID-19. Short-time prediction shows the increasing trend of daily and cumulative cases of COVID-19 for the four states of India.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/transmission , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/transmission , Algorithms , Basic Reproduction Number , Betacoronavirus , Calibration , Computer Simulation , Disease Outbreaks , Forecasting , Humans , India/epidemiology , Linear Models , Pandemics
6.
PLoS One ; 15(8): e0237301, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-695948

ABSTRACT

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has put considerable physical and emotional strain on frontline healthcare workers. Among frontline healthcare workers, physician trainees represent a unique group-functioning simultaneously as both learners and caregivers and experiencing considerable challenges during the pandemic. However, we have a limited understanding regarding the emotional effects and vulnerability experienced by trainees during the pandemic. We investigated the effects of trainee exposure to patients being tested for COVID-19 on their depression, anxiety, stress, burnout and professional fulfillment. All physician trainees at an academic medical center (n = 1375) were invited to participate in an online survey. We compared the measures of depression, anxiety, stress, burnout and professional fulfillment among trainees who were exposed to patients being tested for COVID-19 and those that were not, using univariable and multivariable models. We also evaluated perceived life stressors such as childcare, home schooling, personal finances and work-family balance among both groups. 393 trainees completed the survey (29% response rate). Compared to the non-exposed group, the exposed group had a higher prevalence of stress (29.4% vs. 18.9%), and burnout (46.3% vs. 33.7%). The exposed group also experienced moderate to extremely high perceived stress regarding childcare and had a lower work-family balance. Multivariable models indicated that trainees who were exposed to COVID-19 patients reported significantly higher stress (10.96 [95% CI, 9.65 to 12.46] vs 8.44 [95% CI, 7.3 to 9.76]; P = 0.043) and were more likely to be burned out (1.31 [95% CI, 1.21 to1.41] vs 1.07 [95% CI, 0.96 to 1.19]; P = 0.002]. We also found that female trainees were more likely to be stressed (P = 0.043); while unmarried trainees were more likely to be depressed (P = 0.009), and marginally more likely to have anxiety (P = 0.051). To address these challenges, wellness programs should focus on sustaining current programs, develop new and targeted mental health resources that are widely accessible and devise strategies for creating awareness regarding these resources.


Subject(s)
Burnout, Professional , Coronavirus Infections/pathology , Health Personnel/psychology , Pneumonia, Viral/pathology , Stress, Psychological , Adult , Anxiety/pathology , Betacoronavirus/isolation & purification , Coronavirus Infections/virology , Depression/pathology , Female , Humans , Internet , Linear Models , Male , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/virology , Surveys and Questionnaires
7.
Sci Rep ; 10(1): 12512, 2020 07 27.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-688874

ABSTRACT

Coronaviruses may exert severely negative effects on the mortality and morbidity of birds and mammals including humans and domestic animals. Most recently CoVID-19 has killed about half million people (27th of June, 2020). Susceptibility to this disease appears to differ markedly across different societies but the factors underlying this variability are not known. Given that prevalence of toxoplasmosis in human societies may serve as a proxy for hygiene, and it also exerts both direct and immune-mediated antiviral effects, we hypothesize a negative covariation between toxoplasmosis and measures of the CoVID-19 pandemic across countries. We obtained aged-adjusted toxoplasmosis prevalence of pregnant women from the literature. Since the differences in the CoVID-19 morbidity and mortality may depend on the different timing of the epidemics in each country, we applied the date of first documented CoVID-19 in each country as a proxy of susceptibility, with a statistical control for population size effects. Using these two indices, we show a highly significant negative co-variation between the two pandemics across 86 countries. Then, considering that the wealth of nations often co-varies with the prevalence of diseases, we introduced GDP per capita into our model. The prevalence of toxoplasmosis co-varies negatively, while the date of first CoVID-19 co-varies positively with GDP per capita across countries. Further, to control for the strong spatial autocorrelation among countries, we carried out a Spatial Structure Analyses of the relationships between the date of first CoVID-19, prevalence of toxoplasmosis, and GDP per capita. Results of this analysis did not confirm a direct causal relationship between toxoplasmosis and susceptibility to the CoVID-19 pandemics. As far as an analysis of observational data let us to suggest, it appears that the interaction between CoVID-19 and toxoplasmosis is mediated by GDP per capita and spatial effects. This prompts the question whether the formerly known covariations of CoVID-19 and BCG vaccination or air pollution might have also emerged as spurious indirect effects.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/pathology , Pneumonia, Viral/pathology , Toxoplasmosis/pathology , Betacoronavirus/isolation & purification , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/virology , Disease Susceptibility/economics , Humans , Linear Models , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/virology , Prevalence , Toxoplasmosis/epidemiology , Toxoplasmosis/parasitology
8.
Sci Rep ; 10(1): 12567, 2020 07 24.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-672142

ABSTRACT

A question central to the Covid-19 pandemic is why the Covid-19 mortality rate varies so greatly across countries. This study aims to investigate factors associated with cross-country variation in Covid-19 mortality. Covid-19 mortality rate was calculated as number of deaths per 100 Covid-19 cases. To identify factors associated with Covid-19 mortality rate, linear regressions were applied to a cross-sectional dataset comprising 169 countries. We retrieved data from the Worldometer website, the Worldwide Governance Indicators, World Development Indicators, and Logistics Performance Indicators databases. Covid-19 mortality rate was negatively associated with Covid-19 test number per 100 people (RR = 0.92, P = 0.001), government effectiveness score (RR = 0.96, P = 0.017), and number of hospital beds (RR = 0.85, P < 0.001). Covid-19 mortality rate was positively associated with proportion of population aged 65 or older (RR = 1.12, P < 0.001) and transport infrastructure quality score (RR = 1.08, P = 0.002). Furthermore, the negative association between Covid-19 mortality and test number was stronger among low-income countries and countries with lower government effectiveness scores, younger populations and fewer hospital beds. Predicted mortality rates were highly associated with observed mortality rates (r = 0.77; P < 0.001). Increasing Covid-19 testing, improving government effectiveness and increasing hospital beds may have the potential to attenuate Covid-19 mortality.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/mortality , Government Regulation , Pneumonia, Viral/mortality , Age Factors , Betacoronavirus/isolation & purification , Coronavirus Infections/pathology , Coronavirus Infections/virology , Cross-Sectional Studies , Health Policy , Humans , Income , Linear Models , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/pathology , Pneumonia, Viral/virology
11.
Lancet Haematol ; 7(9): e671-e678, 2020 Sep.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-639270

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 is an ongoing global pandemic. Changes in haematological characteristics in patients with COVID-19 are emerging as important features of the disease. We aimed to explore the haematological characteristics and related risk factors in patients with COVID-19. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included patients with COVID-19 admitted to three designated sites of Wuhan Union Hospital (Wuhan, China). Demographic, clinical, laboratory, treatment, and outcome data were extracted from electronic medical records and compared between patients with moderate, severe, and critical disease (defined according to the diagnosis and treatment protocol for novel coronavirus pneumonia, trial version 7, published by the National Health Commission of China). We assessed the risk factors associated with critical illness and poor prognosis. Dynamic haematological and coagulation parameters were investigated with a linear mixed model, and coagulopathy screening with sepsis-induced coagulopathy and International Society of Thrombosis and Hemostasis overt disseminated intravascular coagulation scoring systems was applied. FINDINGS: Of 466 patients admitted to hospital from Jan 23 to Feb 23, 2020, 380 patients with COVID-19 were included in our study. The incidence of thrombocytopenia (platelet count <100 × 109 cells per L) in patients with critical disease (42 [49%] of 86) was significantly higher than in those with severe (20 [14%] of 145) or moderate (nine [6%] of 149) disease (p<0·0001). The numbers of lymphocytes and eosinophils were significantly lower in patients with critical disease than those with severe or moderate disease (p<0·0001), and prothrombin time, D-dimer, and fibrin degradation products significantly increased with increasing disease severity (p<0·0001). In multivariate analyses, death was associated with increased neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (≥9·13; odds ratio [OR] 5·39 [95% CI 1·70-17·13], p=0·0042), thrombocytopenia (platelet count <100 × 109 per L; OR 8·33 [2·56-27·15], p=0·00045), prolonged prothrombin time (>16 s; OR 4·94 [1·50-16·25], p=0·0094), and increased D-dimer (>2 mg/L; OR 4·41 [1·06-18·30], p=0·041). Thrombotic and haemorrhagic events were common complications in patients who died (19 [35%] of 55). Sepsis-induced coagulopathy and International Society of Thrombosis and Hemostasis overt disseminated intravascular coagulation scores (assessed in 12 patients who survived and eight patients who died) increased over time in patients who died. The onset of sepsis-induced coagulopathy was typically before overt disseminated intravascular coagulation. INTERPRETATION: Rapid blood tests, including platelet count, prothrombin time, D-dimer, and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio can help clinicians to assess severity and prognosis of patients with COVID-19. The sepsis-induced coagulopathy scoring system can be used for early assessment and management of patients with critical disease. FUNDING: National Key Research and Development Program of China.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/pathology , Hemorrhagic Disorders/pathology , Pneumonia, Viral/pathology , Adult , Aged , Betacoronavirus/isolation & purification , Coronavirus Infections/classification , Coronavirus Infections/complications , Coronavirus Infections/virology , Disseminated Intravascular Coagulation/complications , Disseminated Intravascular Coagulation/pathology , Eosinophils/cytology , Female , Fibrin Fibrinogen Degradation Products/analysis , Fibrin Fibrinogen Degradation Products/metabolism , Hemorrhagic Disorders/complications , Humans , Linear Models , Lymphocytes/cytology , Male , Middle Aged , Odds Ratio , Pandemics/classification , Pneumonia, Viral/classification , Pneumonia, Viral/complications , Pneumonia, Viral/virology , Prothrombin Time , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , Severity of Illness Index , Thrombocytopenia/complications , Thrombocytopenia/pathology
12.
Int J Soc Psychiatry ; 66(8): 770-779, 2020 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-610667

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: Our study aimed to determine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on psychological responses and lifestyle changes among the general population in mainland China following the re-opening of the Wuhan city. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in April 2020. Participants of Chinese nationality aged ⩾ 18 years were asked to complete a modified validated Chinese version of a questionnaire regarding the impact of event scale (IES), family and social support, mental health-related lifestyle changes, and indicators of negative mental health impacts. RESULTS: A total of 728 participants (i.e., 217 males and 511 females) completed the questionnaire. The mean age of the participants was 32.9 ± 10.4 years, with a majority of them (92.2%) having a higher educational qualification level. The overall mean IES in participants was 21.5 ± 7.0, reflecting mild stressful impact (i.e., following the re-opening of the Wuhan city); 25.5% of the participants had an IES score ⩾ 26. Being females and married were significantly associated with a higher mean IES score. The overall mean scores for intrusion and avoidance score scales in participants were 9.4 ± 3.7 and 12.1 ± 4.2, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with increased stressful impact in our participants following the re-opening of the Wuhan city when compared with our previous study, which should not be taken lightly.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/psychology , Mental Health , Pneumonia, Viral/psychology , Quality of Life/psychology , Stress, Psychological/epidemiology , Adolescent , Adult , Betacoronavirus , China/epidemiology , Cross-Sectional Studies , Female , Humans , Life Style , Linear Models , Male , Middle Aged , Pandemics , Social Support , Surveys and Questionnaires , Young Adult
13.
Int J Environ Res Public Health ; 17(12)2020 06 20.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-609766

ABSTRACT

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to examine the differences in preventive behaviors of COVID-19 between urban and rural residents, as well as identify the factors that might contribute to such differences. Methods: Our online survey included 1591 participants from 31 provinces of China with 87% urban and 13% rural residents. We performed multiple linear regressions and path analysis to examine the relationship between rural status and behavioral intention, attitude, subjective norms, information appraisal, knowledge, variety of information source use, and preventive behaviors against COVID-19. Findings: Compared with urban residents, rural residents were less likely to perform preventive behaviors, more likely to hold a negative attitude toward the effectiveness of performing preventive behaviors, and more likely to have lower levels of information appraisal skills. We identified information appraisal as a significant factor that might contribute to the rural/urban differences in preventive behaviors against COVID-19 through attitude, subjective norms, and intention. We found no rural/urban differences in behavioral intention, subjective norms, knowledge about preventive behaviors, or the variety of interpersonal/media source use. Conclusions: As the first wave of the pandemic inundated urban areas, the current media coverage about COVID-19 prevention may not fully satisfy the specific needs of rural populations. Thus, rural residents were less likely to engage in a thoughtful process of information appraisal and adopt the appropriate preventive measures. Tailoring health messages to meet rural populations' unique needs can be an effective strategy to promote preventive health behaviors against COVID-19.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control , Health Behavior , Pandemics/prevention & control , Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control , Rural Population/statistics & numerical data , Urban Population/statistics & numerical data , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Attitude , Betacoronavirus , China , Cross-Sectional Studies , Female , Humans , Intention , Linear Models , Male , Middle Aged , Surveys and Questionnaires , Young Adult
14.
SAR QSAR Environ Res ; 31(7): 511-526, 2020 Jul.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-599051

ABSTRACT

In the context of recently emerged pandemic of COVID-19, we have performed two-dimensional quantitative structure-activity relationship (2D-QSAR) modelling using SARS-CoV-3CLpro enzyme inhibitors for the development of a multiple linear regression (MLR) based model. We have used 2D descriptors with an aim to develop an easily interpretable, transferable and reproducible model which may be used for quick prediction of SAR-CoV-3CLpro inhibitory activity for query compounds in the screening process. Based on the insights obtained from the developed 2D-QSAR model, we have identified the structural features responsible for the enhancement of the inhibitory activity against 3CLpro enzyme. Moreover, we have performed the molecular docking analysis using the most and least active molecules from the dataset to understand the molecular interactions involved in binding, and the results were then correlated with the essential structural features obtained from the 2D-QSAR model. Additionally, we have performed in silico predictions of SARS-CoV 3CLpro enzyme inhibitory activity of a total of 50,437 compounds obtained from two anti-viral drug databases (CAS COVID-19 antiviral candidate compound database and another recently reported list of prioritized compounds from the ZINC15 database) using the developed model and provided prioritized compounds for experimental detection of their performance for SARS-CoV 3CLpro enzyme inhibition.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus/enzymology , Cysteine Endopeptidases/chemistry , Protease Inhibitors/chemistry , Protease Inhibitors/pharmacology , Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship , Antiviral Agents/chemistry , Antiviral Agents/pharmacology , Betacoronavirus/drug effects , Coronavirus Infections , Drug Design , Linear Models , Molecular Docking Simulation , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral
15.
J Occup Health ; 62(1): e12134, 2020 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-593341

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: The study investigated the links between workplace measures implemented in response to COVID-19 with mental health and work performance of employees in Japan. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study of a sample from a cohort study of full-time employees. Participants (n = 1448) completed an online self-report questionnaire on March 19-22, 2020. Multiple linear regression was conducted to ascertain their fear of and worry associated with COVID-19, psychological distress, and work performance. RESULTS: The number of workplace measures correlated positively with respondents' fear of and worry associated with COVID-19 (adjusted standardized ß = 0.123, P < .001), negatively with psychological distress and positively with work performance (adjusted standardized ß = -0.068, P = .032; adjusted standardized ß = 0.101, P = .002; respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Workplace measures may promote and maintain the mental health and work performance of employees during the COVID-19 epidemic. The positive association between the number of measures and fear and worry about COVID-19 may reflect increased awareness about COVID-19 among employees resulted from taking the measures.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/psychology , Occupational Diseases/psychology , Occupational Health , Pneumonia, Viral/psychology , Work Performance , Workplace/psychology , Adult , Anxiety/therapy , Anxiety/virology , Betacoronavirus , Cohort Studies , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/virology , Cross-Sectional Studies , Fear/psychology , Female , Humans , Japan/epidemiology , Linear Models , Male , Mental Health , Middle Aged , Occupational Diseases/therapy , Occupational Diseases/virology , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/virology
16.
Indian J Public Health ; 64(Supplement): S188-S191, 2020 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-567424

ABSTRACT

Background: Most of the countries are affected with the pandemic outbreak of the coronavirus infection. Understanding the severity and distribution in various regions will help in planning the controlling measures. Objectives: The objective was to assess the distribution and growth rate of COVID-19 infection in Tamil Nadu, India. Methods: The data on the number of infections of COVID-19 have been obtained from the media reports released by the Government of Tamil Nadu. The data contain information on the incidence of the disease for the first 41 days of the outbreak started on March 7, 2020. Log-linear model has been used to estimate the progression of the COVID-19 infection in Tamil Nadu. Separate models were employed to model the growth rate and decay rate of the disease. Spatial Poisson regression was used to identify the high-risk areas in the state. Results: : The models estimated the doubling time for the number of cases in growth phase as 3.96 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.70, 9.42) days and halving time in the decay phase as 12.08 (95% CI: 6.79, 54.78) days. The estimated median reproduction numbers were 1.88 (min = 1.09, max = 2.51) and 0.76 (min = 0.56, max = 0.99) in the growth and decay phases, respectively. The spatial Poisson regression identified 11 districts as high risk. Conclusion: The results indicate that the outbreak is showing decay in the number of infections of the disease which highlights the effectiveness of controlling measures.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Betacoronavirus , Data Interpretation, Statistical , Humans , Incidence , India/epidemiology , Linear Models , Pandemics , Spatial Analysis
17.
J Renin Angiotensin Aldosterone Syst ; 21(2): 1470320320928872, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-543313

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a recently identified coronavirus family member that triggers a respiratory disease similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV). SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 are very similar to each other in many respects, such as structure, genetics, and pathobiology. We hypothesized that coronaviruses could affect pulmonary tissues via integration with the critical immune genes after their interaction with renin-angiotensin system (RAS) elements. The aim of the present bioinformatics study was to assess expression changes of the RAS and non-RAS genes, particularly immune response genes, in the lung epithelial cells after infection with SARS-CoV. METHODS: Linear regression, hierarchical clustering, pathway analysis, and network analysis were performed using the E-GEOD-17400 data set. RESULTS: The whole-genome expression data of the lung epithelial cells infected with SARS-CoV for 12, 24, and 48 hours were analyzed, and a total of 15 RAS family and 29 immune genes were found to be highly correlated with the exposure time to the virus in the studied groups. CONCLUSION: RAS genes are important at the initiation of the infections caused by coronavirus family members and may have a strong relationship with the exchange of immune genes in due course following the infection.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus/physiology , Bronchi/pathology , Coronavirus Infections/genetics , Epithelial Cells/metabolism , Epithelial Cells/virology , Inflammation/genetics , Pneumonia, Viral/genetics , Renin-Angiotensin System/genetics , Cluster Analysis , Gene Expression Regulation , Gene Regulatory Networks , Genome, Human , Humans , Inflammation/pathology , Linear Models , Pandemics , RNA, Messenger/genetics , RNA, Messenger/metabolism
18.
Eur Spine J ; 29(8): 1789-1805, 2020 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-526685

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Spine surgeons around the world have been universally impacted by COVID-19. The current study addressed whether prior experience with disease epidemics among the spine surgeon community had an impact on preparedness and response toward COVID-19. METHODS: A 73-item survey was distributed to spine surgeons worldwide via AO Spine. Questions focused on: demographics, COVID-19 preparedness, response, and impact. Respondents with and without prior epidemic experience (e.g., SARS, H1NI, MERS) were assessed on preparedness and response via univariate and multivariate modeling. Results of the survey were compared against the Global Health Security Index. RESULTS: Totally, 902 surgeons from 7 global regions completed the survey. 24.2% of respondents had prior experience with global health crises. Only 49.6% reported adequate access to personal protective equipment. There were no differences in preparedness reported by respondents with prior epidemic exposure. Government and hospital responses were fairly consistent around the world. Prior epidemic experience did not impact the presence of preparedness guidelines. There were subtle differences in sources of stress, coping strategies, performance of elective surgeries, and impact on income driven by prior epidemic exposure. 94.7% expressed a need for formal, international guidelines to help mitigate the impact of the current and future pandemics. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to note that prior experience with infectious disease crises did not appear to help spine surgeons prepare for the current COVID-19 pandemic. Based on survey results, the GHSI was not an effective measure of COVID-19 preparedness. Formal international guidelines for crisis preparedness are needed to mitigate future pandemics.


Subject(s)
Attitude of Health Personnel , Betacoronavirus , Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control , Orthopedic Surgeons , Pandemics/prevention & control , Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control , Practice Patterns, Physicians' , Spine/surgery , Adult , Aged , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Female , Global Health , Humans , Linear Models , Male , Middle Aged , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Practice Guidelines as Topic , Surveys and Questionnaires
19.
Int J Infect Dis ; 98: 121-124, 2020 Sep.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-620116

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The number of excess deaths during February-March 2020 in Italy, in comparison with previous years, was considerably higher than the recorded COVID19-related deaths. The present study aimed to explore the association of excess mortality with some indices related to the COVID-19 pandemic and its management. METHODS: Data on all-cause mortality from 20 February-31 March in the years 2015-2020, and demographic, socioeconomic and healthcare organisation data of each Italian region were obtained from the Italian Institute of Statistics. Non-COVID-19-Imputed Excess Mortality (NCIEM) was calculated as the difference between the excess 2020 mortality and reported COVID-19 mortality. The association of NCIEM with the rate of COVID-19 cases, COVID-19 mortality and other potential moderators was assessed using linear regression models. RESULTS: The nationwide number of excess deaths and COVID-19 deaths was 26,701 and 13,710, respectively, with a difference of 12,991. The NCIEM in different regions showed a direct correlation with COVID-19 mortality (r2 = 0.61, p < 0.001) and total cases (r2 = 0.30, p = 0.012), and an inverse correlation with cases/total tests ratio (r2 = 0.49, p = 0.001). Direct correlations were also found with the proportion of institutionalised elderly, whereas inverse correlations were observed with prevalence of diabetes, cardiovascular mortality and density of general practitioners. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality was considerably greater than that indicated by official counts of victims. Limited testing capacity and causes of death other than COVID-19 could have contributed to the increase in overall mortality rates.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus , Coronavirus Infections/mortality , Pneumonia, Viral/mortality , Aged , Female , Humans , Italy/epidemiology , Linear Models , Male , Middle Aged , Pandemics , Prevalence
20.
BMC Infect Dis ; 20(1): 369, 2020 May 24.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-343360

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have proven that the closure of live poultry markets (LPMs) was an effective intervention to reduce human risk of avian influenza A (H7N9) infection, but evidence is limited on the impact of scale and duration of LPMs closure on the transmission of H7N9. METHOD: Five cities (i.e., Shanghai, Suzhou, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Hangzhou) with the largest number of H7N9 cases in mainland China from 2013 to 2017 were selected in this study. Data on laboratory-confirmed H7N9 human cases in those five cities were obtained from the Chinese National Influenza Centre. The detailed information of LPMs closure (i.e., area and duration) was obtained from the Ministry of Agriculture. We used a generalized linear model with a Poisson link to estimate the effect of LPMs closure, reported as relative risk reduction (RRR). We used classification and regression trees (CARTs) model to select and quantify the dominant factor of H7N9 infection. RESULTS: All five cities implemented the LPMs closure, and the risk of H7N9 infection decreased significantly after LPMs closure with RRR ranging from 0.80 to 0.93. Respectively, a long-term LPMs closure for 10-13 weeks elicited a sustained and highly significant risk reduction of H7N9 infection (RRR = 0.98). Short-time LPMs closure with 2 weeks in every epidemic did not reduce the risk of H7N9 infection (p > 0.05). Partially closed LPMs in some suburbs contributed only 35% for reduction rate (RRR = 0.35). Shenzhen implemented partial closure for first 3 epidemics (p > 0.05) and all closure in the latest 2 epidemic waves (RRR = 0.64). CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that LPMs all closure in whole city can be a highly effective measure comparing with partial closure (i.e. only urban closure, suburb and rural remain open). Extend the duration of closure and consider permanently closing the LPMs will help improve the control effect. The effect of LPMs closure seems greater than that of meteorology on H7N9 transmission.


Subject(s)
Epidemics/prevention & control , Influenza A Virus, H7N9 Subtype , Influenza in Birds/epidemiology , Influenza in Birds/transmission , Influenza, Human/epidemiology , Poultry/virology , Animals , China/epidemiology , Cities/epidemiology , Humans , Humidity , Incidence , Influenza in Birds/virology , Influenza, Human/virology , Linear Models , Poisson Distribution , Risk Factors , Temperature , Urban Population
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