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1.
Epidemiol Infect ; 148: e168, 2020 08 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1537262

ABSTRACT

This study aimed to identify clinical features for prognosing mortality risk using machine-learning methods in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). A retrospective study of the inpatients with COVID-19 admitted from 15 January to 15 March 2020 in Wuhan is reported. The data of symptoms, comorbidity, demographic, vital sign, CT scans results and laboratory test results on admission were collected. Machine-learning methods (Random Forest and XGboost) were used to rank clinical features for mortality risk. Multivariate logistic regression models were applied to identify clinical features with statistical significance. The predictors of mortality were lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), C-reactive protein (CRP) and age based on 500 bootstrapped samples. A multivariate logistic regression model was formed to predict mortality 292 in-sample patients with area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) of 0.9521, which was better than CURB-65 (AUROC of 0.8501) and the machine-learning-based model (AUROC of 0.4530). An out-sample data set of 13 patients was further tested to show our model (AUROC of 0.6061) was also better than CURB-65 (AUROC of 0.4608) and the machine-learning-based model (AUROC of 0.2292). LDH, CRP and age can be used to identify severe patients with COVID-19 on hospital admission.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/mortality , Coronavirus Infections/therapy , Logistic Models , Machine Learning , Pneumonia, Viral/mortality , Pneumonia, Viral/therapy , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , COVID-19 , China/epidemiology , Female , Hospitalization , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Pandemics , Prognosis , ROC Curve , Reproducibility of Results , Retrospective Studies , Risk Assessment/methods , Young Adult
2.
BMC Pregnancy Childbirth ; 21(1): 768, 2021 Nov 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1528682

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Pregnant and postpartum women face unique challenges and concerns during the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus far, no studies have explored the factors associated with increased levels of worry in this population globally. The current study sought to assess the frequency and sources of worry during the COVID-19 pandemic in an international sample of pregnant and postpartum women. METHODS: We conducted an anonymous, online, cross-sectional survey in 64 countries between May and June 2020. The survey was available in 12 languages and hosted on the Pregistry platform for COVID-19 studies. Participants were sought mainly on social media platforms and online parenting forums. The survey included questions related to demographics, level of worry, support, stress, COVID-19 exposure, frequency of media usage, and mental health indicators. RESULTS: The study included 7561 participants. Eighty-three percent of all participants indicated that they were either 'somewhat' or 'very' worried. Women 13-28 weeks pregnant were significantly more likely to indicate that they were 'very worried' compared to those who were postpartum or at other stages of pregnancy. When compared with women living in Europe, those in Africa, Asia and Pacific, North America and South/Latin America were more likely to have increased levels of worry, as were those who more frequently interacted with social media. Different forms of support and stress also had an impact upon level of worry, while indicators of stress and anxiety were positively associated with worry level. CONCLUSION: Pregnant and postpartum women are vulnerable to the changes in societal norms brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic. Understanding the factors associated with levels of worry within this population will enable society to address potential unmet needs and improve the current and future mental health of parents and children.


Subject(s)
Anxiety/etiology , COVID-19/psychology , Pregnancy Complications/etiology , Adolescent , Adult , Anxiety/epidemiology , Anxiety/psychology , Cross-Sectional Studies , Female , Global Health/statistics & numerical data , Health Surveys , Humans , Logistic Models , Odds Ratio , Postpartum Period/psychology , Pregnancy , Pregnancy Complications/epidemiology , Pregnancy Complications/psychology , Risk Factors , Stress, Psychological/epidemiology , Stress, Psychological/etiology , Stress, Psychological/psychology , Young Adult
3.
JAMA ; 326(17): 1690-1702, 2021 Nov 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1525402

ABSTRACT

Importance: The evidence for benefit of convalescent plasma for critically ill patients with COVID-19 is inconclusive. Objective: To determine whether convalescent plasma would improve outcomes for critically ill adults with COVID-19. Design, Setting, and Participants: The ongoing Randomized, Embedded, Multifactorial, Adaptive Platform Trial for Community-Acquired Pneumonia (REMAP-CAP) enrolled and randomized 4763 adults with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 between March 9, 2020, and January 18, 2021, within at least 1 domain; 2011 critically ill adults were randomized to open-label interventions in the immunoglobulin domain at 129 sites in 4 countries. Follow-up ended on April 19, 2021. Interventions: The immunoglobulin domain randomized participants to receive 2 units of high-titer, ABO-compatible convalescent plasma (total volume of 550 mL ± 150 mL) within 48 hours of randomization (n = 1084) or no convalescent plasma (n = 916). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary ordinal end point was organ support-free days (days alive and free of intensive care unit-based organ support) up to day 21 (range, -1 to 21 days; patients who died were assigned -1 day). The primary analysis was an adjusted bayesian cumulative logistic model. Superiority was defined as the posterior probability of an odds ratio (OR) greater than 1 (threshold for trial conclusion of superiority >99%). Futility was defined as the posterior probability of an OR less than 1.2 (threshold for trial conclusion of futility >95%). An OR greater than 1 represented improved survival, more organ support-free days, or both. The prespecified secondary outcomes included in-hospital survival; 28-day survival; 90-day survival; respiratory support-free days; cardiovascular support-free days; progression to invasive mechanical ventilation, extracorporeal mechanical oxygenation, or death; intensive care unit length of stay; hospital length of stay; World Health Organization ordinal scale score at day 14; venous thromboembolic events at 90 days; and serious adverse events. Results: Among the 2011 participants who were randomized (median age, 61 [IQR, 52 to 70] years and 645/1998 [32.3%] women), 1990 (99%) completed the trial. The convalescent plasma intervention was stopped after the prespecified criterion for futility was met. The median number of organ support-free days was 0 (IQR, -1 to 16) in the convalescent plasma group and 3 (IQR, -1 to 16) in the no convalescent plasma group. The in-hospital mortality rate was 37.3% (401/1075) for the convalescent plasma group and 38.4% (347/904) for the no convalescent plasma group and the median number of days alive and free of organ support was 14 (IQR, 3 to 18) and 14 (IQR, 7 to 18), respectively. The median-adjusted OR was 0.97 (95% credible interval, 0.83 to 1.15) and the posterior probability of futility (OR <1.2) was 99.4% for the convalescent plasma group compared with the no convalescent plasma group. The treatment effects were consistent across the primary outcome and the 11 secondary outcomes. Serious adverse events were reported in 3.0% (32/1075) of participants in the convalescent plasma group and in 1.3% (12/905) of participants in the no convalescent plasma group. Conclusions and Relevance: Among critically ill adults with confirmed COVID-19, treatment with 2 units of high-titer, ABO-compatible convalescent plasma had a low likelihood of providing improvement in the number of organ support-free days. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02735707.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/therapy , ABO Blood-Group System , Adult , Aged , Critical Illness/therapy , Female , Hospital Mortality , Humans , Immunization, Passive , Length of Stay , Logistic Models , Male , Middle Aged , Respiration, Artificial/statistics & numerical data , Treatment Failure , Vasoconstrictor Agents/therapeutic use
4.
mSphere ; 6(5): e0075221, 2021 10 27.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1526451

ABSTRACT

During the progression of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), immune response and inflammation reactions are dynamic events that develop rapidly and are associated with the severity of disease. Here, we aimed to develop a predictive model based on the immune and inflammatory response to discriminate patients with severe COVID-19. COVID-19 patients were enrolled, and their demographic and immune inflammatory reaction indicators were collected and analyzed. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the independent predictors, which were further used to construct a predictive model. The predictive performance of the model was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curve, and optimal diagnostic threshold was calculated; these were further validated by 5-fold cross-validation and external validation. We screened three key indicators, including neutrophils, eosinophils, and IgA, for predicting severe COVID-19 and obtained a combined neutrophil, eosinophil, and IgA ratio (NEAR) model (NEU [109/liter] - 150×EOS [109/liter] + 3×IgA [g/liter]). NEAR achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.961, and when a threshold of 9 was applied, the sensitivity and specificity of the predicting model were 100% and 88.89%, respectively. Thus, NEAR is an effective index for predicting the severity of COVID-19 and can be used as a powerful tool for clinicians to make better clinical decisions. IMPORTANCE The immune inflammatory response changes rapidly with the progression of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and is responsible for clearance of the virus and further recovery from the infection. However, the intensified immune and inflammatory response in the development of the disease may lead to more serious and fatal consequences, which indicates that immune indicators have the potential to predict serious cases. Here, we identified both eosinophils and serum IgA as prognostic markers of COVID-19, which sheds light on new research directions and is worthy of further research in the scientific research field as well as clinical application. In this study, the combination of NEU count, EOS count, and IgA level was included in a new predictive model of the severity of COVID-19, which can be used as a powerful tool for better clinical decision-making.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Testing/methods , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/immunology , Clinical Decision Rules , Severity of Illness Index , Adult , Aged , Biomarkers/blood , COVID-19/blood , Clinical Decision-Making/methods , Disease Progression , Eosinophils/metabolism , Female , Humans , Immunoglobulin A/blood , Inflammation/blood , Inflammation/diagnosis , Inflammation/virology , Logistic Models , Male , Middle Aged , Neutrophils/metabolism , Predictive Value of Tests , Prognosis , Sensitivity and Specificity
5.
Surg Infect (Larchmt) ; 22(9): 948-954, 2021 Nov.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1522102

ABSTRACT

Background: In trauma, direct pulmonary injury and innate immune response activation primes the lungs for acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). The inflammasome-dependent release of interleukin-18 (IL-18) was recently identified as a key mediator in ARDS pathogenesis, leading us to hypothesize that plasma IL-18 is a diagnostic predictor of ARDS in severe blunt trauma. Patients and Methods: Secondary analysis of the Inflammation and Host Response to Injury database was performed on plasma cytokines collected within 12 hours of severe blunt trauma. Trauma-related cytokines, including IL-18, were compared between patients with and without ARDS and were evaluated for association with ARDS using regression analysis. Threshold cytokine concentrations predictive of ARDS were determined using receiver-operating curve (ROC) analysis. Results: Cytokine analysis of patients without ARDS patients (n = 61) compared with patients with ARDS (n = 19) demonstrated elevated plasma IL-18 concentration in ARDS and IL-18 remained correlated with ARDS on logistic regression after confounder adjustment (p = 0.008). Additionally, ROC analysis revealed IL-18 as a strong ARDS predictor (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.83), with a threshold IL-18 value of 170 pg/mL (Youden index, 0.3). Unlike in patients without ARDS, elevated IL-18 persisted in patients with ARDS during the acute injury phase (p ≤ 0.02). Other trauma-related cytokines did not correlate with ARDS. Conclusions: In severe blunt trauma, IL-18 is a robust predictor of ARDS and remains elevated throughout the acute injury phase. These findings support the use of IL-18 as a key ARDS biomarker, promoting early identification of trauma patients at greater risk of developing ARDS. Timely recognition of ARDS and implementation of advantageous supportive care practices may reduce trauma-related ARDS morbidity and costs.


Subject(s)
Respiratory Distress Syndrome , Wounds, Nonpenetrating , Humans , Interleukin-18 , Logistic Models , Respiratory Distress Syndrome/diagnosis , Respiratory Distress Syndrome/etiology , Risk Assessment , Wounds, Nonpenetrating/complications , Wounds, Nonpenetrating/diagnosis
6.
JAMA Netw Open ; 4(11): e2134241, 2021 11 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1508587

ABSTRACT

Importance: The influence of sleep-disordered breathing (SDB) and sleep-related hypoxemia in SARS-CoV-2 viral infection and COVID-19 outcomes remains unknown. Controversy exists regarding whether to continue treatment for SDB with positive airway pressure given concern for aerosolization with limited data to inform professional society recommendations. Objective: To investigate the association of SDB (identified via polysomnogram) and sleep-related hypoxia with (1) SARS-CoV-2 positivity and (2) World Health Organization (WHO)-designated COVID-19 clinical outcomes while accounting for confounding including obesity, underlying cardiopulmonary disease, cancer, and smoking history. Design, Setting, and Participants: This case-control study was conducted within the Cleveland Clinic Health System (Ohio and Florida) and included all patients who were tested for COVID-19 between March 8 and November 30, 2020, and who had an available sleep study record. Sleep indices and SARS-CoV-2 positivity were assessed with overlap propensity score weighting, and COVID-19 clinical outcomes were assessed using the institutional registry. Exposures: Sleep study-identified SDB (defined by frequency of apneas and hypopneas using the Apnea-Hypopnea Index [AHI]) and sleep-related hypoxemia (percentage of total sleep time at <90% oxygen saturation [TST <90]). Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcomes were SARS-CoV-2 infection and WHO-designated COVID-19 clinical outcomes (hospitalization, use of supplemental oxygen, noninvasive ventilation, mechanical ventilation or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, and death). Results: Of 350 710 individuals tested for SARS-CoV-2, 5402 (mean [SD] age, 56.4 [14.5] years; 3005 women [55.6%]) had a prior sleep study, of whom 1935 (35.8%) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Of the 5402 participants, 1696 were Black (31.4%), 3259 were White (60.3%), and 822 were of other race or ethnicity (15.2%). Patients who were positive vs negative for SARS-CoV-2 had a higher AHI score (median, 16.2 events/h [IQR, 6.1-39.5 events/h] vs 13.6 events/h [IQR, 5.5-33.6 events/h]; P < .001) and increased TST <90 (median, 1.8% sleep time [IQR, 0.10%-12.8% sleep time] vs 1.4% sleep time [IQR, 0.10%-10.8% sleep time]; P = .02). After overlap propensity score-weighted logistic regression, no SDB measures were associated with SARS-CoV-2 positivity. Median TST <90 was associated with the WHO-designated COVID-19 ordinal clinical outcome scale (adjusted odds ratio, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.10-1.74; P = .005). Time-to-event analyses showed sleep-related hypoxia associated with a 31% higher rate of hospitalization and mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.08-1.57; P = .005). Conclusions and Relevance: In this case-control study, SDB and sleep-related hypoxia were not associated with increased SARS-CoV-2 positivity; however, once patients were infected with SARS-CoV-2, sleep-related hypoxia was an associated risk factor for detrimental COVID-19 outcomes.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Cause of Death , Hospitalization , Severity of Illness Index , Sleep Apnea Syndromes/complications , Aged , COVID-19/complications , COVID-19/mortality , COVID-19/therapy , Case-Control Studies , Continuous Positive Airway Pressure , Delivery of Health Care, Integrated , Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation , Female , Florida , Hospital Mortality , Humans , Hypoxia , Logistic Models , Male , Middle Aged , Odds Ratio , Ohio , Respiration, Artificial , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2 , Sleep , Sleep Apnea Syndromes/pathology , Sleep Apnea Syndromes/therapy
8.
BMC Pregnancy Childbirth ; 21(1): 767, 2021 Nov 12.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1511733

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic led to regional or nationwide lockdowns as part of risk mitigation measurements in many countries worldwide. Recent studies suggest an unexpected and unprecedented decrease in preterm births during the initial COVID-19 lockdowns in the first half of 2020. The objective of the current study was to assess the effects of the two months of the initial national COVID-19 lockdown period on the incidence of very and extremely preterm birth in the Netherlands, stratified by either spontaneous or iatrogenic onset of delivery, in both singleton and multiple pregnancies. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study using data from all 10 perinatal centers in the Netherlands on very and extremely preterm births during the initial COVID-19 lockdown from March 15 to May 15, 2020. Incidences of very and extremely preterm birth were calculated using an estimate of the total number of births in the Netherlands in this period. As reference, we used data from the corresponding calendar period in 2015-2018 from the national perinatal registry (Perined). We differentiated between spontaneous versus iatrogenic onset of delivery and between singleton versus multiple pregnancies. RESULTS: The incidence of total preterm birth < 32 weeks in singleton pregnancies was 6.1‰ in the study period in 2020 versus 6.5‰ in the corresponding period in 2015-2018. The decrease in preterm births in singletons was solely due to a significant decrease in iatrogenic preterm births, both < 32 weeks (OR 0.71; 95%CI 0.53 to 0.95) and < 28 weeks (OR 0.53; 95%CI 0.29 to 0.97). For multiple pregnancies, an increase in preterm births < 28 weeks was observed (OR 2.43; 95%CI 1.35 to 4.39). CONCLUSION: This study shows a decrease in iatrogenic preterm births during the initial COVID-19-related lockdown in the Netherlands in singletons. Future studies should focus on the mechanism of action of lockdown measures and reduction of preterm birth and the effects of perinatal outcome.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/prevention & control , Labor, Induced/trends , Premature Birth/epidemiology , Premature Birth/etiology , Female , Health Policy , Humans , Iatrogenic Disease/epidemiology , Incidence , Infant, Extremely Premature , Infant, Newborn , Logistic Models , Netherlands/epidemiology , Pregnancy , Prenatal Care/methods , Prenatal Care/trends , Protective Factors , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors
9.
PLoS One ; 16(11): e0259454, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1506294

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic seems to have a different picture in Africa; the first case was identified in the continent after it had already caused a significant loss to the rest of the world and the reported number of cases and mortality rate has been low. Understanding the characteristics and outcome of the pandemic in the African setup is therefore crucial. AIM: To assess the characteristics and outcome of Patients with COVID-19 and to identify determinants of the disease outcome among patients admitted to Millennium COVID-19 Care Center in Ethiopia. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted among 1345 consecutively admitted RT-PCR confirmed Patients with COVID-19 from July to September, 2020. Frequency tables, KM plots, median survival times and Log-rank test were used to describe the data and compare survival distribution between groups. Cox proportional hazard survival model was used to identify determinants of time to clinical recovery and the independent variables, where adjusted hazard ratio, P-value and 95% CI for adjusted hazard ratio were used for testing significance and interpretation of results. Binary logistic regression model was used to assess the presence of a statistically significant association between disease outcome and the independent variables, where adjusted odds ratio, P-value and 95% CI for adjusted odds ratio were used for testing significance and interpretation of results. RESULTS: Among the study population, 71 (5.3%) died, 72 (5.4%) were transferred and the rest 1202 (89.4%) were clinically improved. The median time to clinical recovery was 14 days. On the multivariable Cox proportional hazard model; temperature (AHR = 1.135, 95% CI = 1.011, 1.274, p-value = 0.032), COVID-19 severity (AHR = 0.660, 95% CI = 0.501, 0.869, p-value = 0.003), and cough (AHR = 0.705, 95% CI = 0.519, 0.959, p-value = 0.026) were found to be significant determinants of time to clinical recovery. On the binary logistic regression, the following factors were found to be significantly associated with disease outcome; SPO2 (AOR = 0.302, 95% CI = 0.193, 0.474, p-value = 0.0001), shortness of breath (AOR = 0.354, 95% CI = 0.213, 0.590, p-value = 0.0001) and diabetes mellitus (AOR = 0.549, 95% CI = 0.337, 0.894, p-value = 0.016). CONCLUSIONS: The average duration of time to clinical recovery was 14 days and 89.4% of the patients achieved clinical recovery. The mortality rate of the studied population is lower than reports from other countries including those in Africa. Having severe COVID-19 disease severity and presenting with cough were found to be associated with delayed clinical recovery of the disease. On the other hand, being hyperthermic is associated with shorter disease duration (faster time to clinical recovery). In addition, lower oxygen saturation, subjective complaint of shortness of breath and being diabetic were associated with unfavorable disease outcome. Therefore, patients with these factors should be followed cautiously for a better outcome.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Adult , Ethiopia/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Logistic Models , Male , Middle Aged , Odds Ratio , Pandemics/statistics & numerical data , Pregnancy , Proportional Hazards Models , Prospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity , Severity of Illness Index , Time Factors , Treatment Outcome
10.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 7334, 2021 04 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1500696

ABSTRACT

To identify the risk factors of mortality for the coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) through a retrospective analysis. The demographic, clinical, laboratory, and chest imaging data of patients admitted to the ICU of Huoshenshan Hospital from February 10 to April 10, 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. Student's t-test and Chi-square test were used to compare the continuous and categorical variables, respectively. The logistic regression model was employed to ascertain the risk factors of mortality. This retrospective study involved 123 patients, including 64 dead and 59 survivors. Among them, 57 people were tested for interleukin-6 (IL-6) (20 died and 37 survived). In all included patients, the oxygenation index (PaO2/FiO2) was identified as an independent risk factor (odd ratio [OR] = 0.96, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.928-0.994, p = 0.021). The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.895 (95% CI: 0.826-0.943, p < 0.0001). Among the patients tested for IL-6, the PaO2/FiO2 (OR = 0.955, 95%CI: 0.915-0.996, p = 0.032) and IL-6 (OR = 1.013, 95%CI: 1.001-1.025, p = 0.028) were identified as independent risk factors. The AUC was 0.9 (95% CI: 0.791-0.964, p < 0.0001) for IL-6 and 0.865 (95% CI: 0.748-0.941, p < 0.0001) for PaO2/FiO2. PaO2/FiO2 and IL-6 could potentially serve as independent risk factors for predicting death in COVID-19 patients requiring intensive care.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/mortality , Interleukin-6/analysis , Aged , Area Under Curve , COVID-19/pathology , COVID-19/virology , Comorbidity , Female , Humans , Intensive Care Units , Logistic Models , Male , Middle Aged , Oxygen Consumption , ROC Curve , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification
11.
J Am Soc Nephrol ; 32(11): 2948-2957, 2021 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1496700

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic caused major disruptions to care for patients with advanced CKD. METHODS: We investigated the incidence of documented ESKD, ESKD treatment modalities, changes in eGFR at dialysis initiation, and use of incident central venous catheters (CVCs) by epidemiologic week during the first half of 2020 compared with 2017-2019 historical trends, using Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services data. We used Poisson and logistic regression for analyses of incidence and binary outcomes, respectively. RESULTS: Incidence of documented ESKD dropped dramatically in 2020 compared with the expected incidence, particularly during epidemiologic weeks 15-18 (April, incidence rate ratio [IRR], 0.75; 95% CI, 0.73 to 0.78). The decrease was most pronounced for individuals aged ≥75 years (IRR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.66 to 0.73). Pre-emptive kidney transplantation decreased markedly during weeks 15-18 (IRR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.46 to 0.67). Mean eGFR at dialysis initiation decreased by 0.33 ml/min per 1.73 m2 in weeks 19-22; non-Hispanic Black patients exhibited the largest decrease, at 0.61 ml/min per 1.73 m2. The odds of initiating dialysis with eGFR <10 ml/min per 1.73 m2 were highest during weeks 19-22 (May, OR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.17), corresponding to an absolute increase of 2.9%. The odds of initiating peritoneal dialysis (versus hemodialysis) were 24% higher (OR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.14 to 1.34) in weeks 11-14, an absolute increase of 2.3%. Initiation with a CVC increased by 3.3% (OR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.20 to 1.41). CONCLUSIONS: During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of patients starting treatment for ESKD fell to a level not observed since 2011. Changes in documented ESKD incidence and other aspects of ESKD-related care may reflect differential access to care early in the pandemic.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Kidney Failure, Chronic/epidemiology , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Catheterization, Central Venous/statistics & numerical data , Glomerular Filtration Rate , Humans , Incidence , Kidney Failure, Chronic/diagnosis , Kidney Failure, Chronic/therapy , Kidney Transplantation/statistics & numerical data , Logistic Models , Middle Aged , Odds Ratio , Procedures and Techniques Utilization , Renal Dialysis/statistics & numerical data , United States , Young Adult
12.
J Am Soc Nephrol ; 32(2): 448-458, 2021 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1496669

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is an important environmental risk factor for cardiopulmonary diseases. However, the association between PM2.5 and risk of CKD remains under-recognized, especially in regions with high levels of PM2.5, such as China. METHODS: To explore the association between long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 and CKD prevalence in China, we used data from the China National Survey of CKD, which included a representative sample of 47,204 adults. We estimated annual exposure to PM2.5 before the survey date at each participant's address, using a validated, satellite-based, spatiotemporal model with a 10 km×10 km resolution. Participants with eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 or albuminuria were defined as having CKD. We used a logistic regression model to estimate the association and analyzed the influence of potential modifiers. RESULTS: The 2-year mean PM2.5 concentration was 57.4 µg/m3, with a range from 31.3 to 87.5 µg/m3. An increase of 10 µg/m3 in PM2.5 was positively associated with CKD prevalence (odds ratio [OR], 1.28; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.22 to 1.35) and albuminuria (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.32 to 1.47). Effect modification indicated these associations were significantly stronger in urban areas compared with rural areas, in males compared with females, in participants aged <65 years compared with participants aged ≥65 years, and in participants without comorbid diseases compared with those with comorbidities. CONCLUSIONS: These findings regarding the relationship between long-term exposure to high ambient PM2.5 levels and CKD in the general Chinese population provide important evidence for policy makers and public health practices to reduce the CKD risk posed by this pollutant.


Subject(s)
Air Pollution/adverse effects , Albuminuria/epidemiology , Environmental Exposure/adverse effects , Particulate Matter/adverse effects , Renal Insufficiency, Chronic/epidemiology , Adult , Aged , Albuminuria/diagnosis , China , Female , Glomerular Filtration Rate , Humans , Logistic Models , Male , Middle Aged , Prevalence , Renal Insufficiency, Chronic/diagnosis , Risk Factors , Surveys and Questionnaires , Time Factors
13.
PLoS One ; 16(11): e0248542, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1496340

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: In the United States, underserved communities including Blacks and Latinx are disproportionately affected by COVID-19. This study sought to estimate the prevalence of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy, describe attitudes related to vaccination, and identify correlates among historically marginalized populations across 9 counties in North Carolina. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional survey distributed at free COVID-19 testing events in underserved rural and urban communities from August 27 -December 15, 2020. Vaccine hesitancy was defined as the response of "no" or "don't know/not sure" to whether the participant would get the COVID-19 vaccine as soon as it became available. RESULTS: The sample comprised 948 participants including 27.7% Whites, 59.6% Blacks, 12.7% Latinx, and 63% female. 32% earned <$20K annually, 60% owned a computer and ~80% had internet access at home. The prevalence of vaccine hesitancy was 68.9% including 62.7%, 74%, and 59.5% among Whites, Blacks, and Latinx, respectively. Between September and December, the largest decline in vaccine hesitancy occurred among Whites (27.5 percentage points), followed by Latinx (17.6) and only 12.0 points among Blacks. 51.2% of respondents reported vaccine safety concerns, 23.7% wanted others to get vaccinated first, and 63.1% would trust health care providers about the COVID-19 vaccine. Factors associated with hesitancy in multivariable logistic regression included being female (OR = 1.90 95%CI [1.36, 2.64]), being Black (OR = 1.68 1.16, 2.45]), calendar month (OR = 0.76 [0.63, 0.92]), safety concerns (OR = 4.28 [3.06, 5.97]), and government distrust (OR = 3.57 [2.26, 5.63]). CONCLUSIONS: This study engaged the community to directly reach underserved minority populations at highest risk of COVID-19 that permitted assessment of vaccine hesitancy (which was much higher than national estimates), driven in part by distrust, and safety concerns.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Vaccines/therapeutic use , COVID-19/prevention & control , Adolescent , Adult , COVID-19/immunology , Cross-Sectional Studies , Female , Humans , Logistic Models , Male , Middle Aged , Multivariate Analysis , North Carolina , Young Adult
14.
Am J Respir Crit Care Med ; 204(9): 1024-1034, 2021 11 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1495777

ABSTRACT

Rationale: ACE2 (angiotensin-converting enzyme 2), the entry receptor for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is expressed in type 2 alveolar epithelial cells (AT2) that may play key roles in postinjury repair. An imbalance between ACE2 and ACE has also been hypothesized to contribute to lung injury. Objectives: To characterize the expression and distribution of ACE2 and ACE and to compare AT2 with endothelial cell expression in coronavirus disease (COVID-19)-related or -unrelated acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and controls. Methods: Lung tissue stainings (using multiplex immunofluorescence) and serum concentrations of ACEs were determined retrospectively in two different cohorts of patients. AT2 and endothelial cells were stained in lung tissue for ProSPC (pro-surfactant protein C) and CD31, respectively. Measurements and Main Results: Pulmonary ACE2 expression was increased in patients with COVID-19-related and -unrelated ARDS (0.06% of tissue area and 0.12% vs. 0.006% for control subjects; P = 0.013 and P < 0.0001, respectively). ACE2 was upregulated in endothelial cells (0.32% and 0.53% vs. 0.01%; P = 0.009 and P < 0.0001) but not in AT2 cells (0.13% and 0.08% vs. 0.03%; P = 0.94 and P = 0.44). Pulmonary expression of ACE was decreased in both COVID-19-related and -unrelated ARDS (P = 0.057 and P = 0.032). Similar increases in ACE2 and decreases in ACE were observed in sera of COVID-19 (P = 0.0054 and P < 0.0001) and non-COVID-19 ARDS (P < 0.0001 and P = 0.016). In addition, AT2 cells were decreased in patients with COVID-19-related ARDS compared with COVID-19-unrelated ARDS (1.395% vs. 2.94%, P = 0.0033). Conclusions: ACE2 is upregulated in lung tissue and serum of both COVID-19-related and -unrelated ARDS, whereas a loss of AT2 cells is selectively observed in COVID-19-related ARDS.


Subject(s)
Alveolar Epithelial Cells/metabolism , Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme 2/metabolism , COVID-19/metabolism , Peptidyl-Dipeptidase A/metabolism , Respiratory Distress Syndrome/metabolism , Adult , Aged , Biomarkers/metabolism , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/physiopathology , Case-Control Studies , Female , Humans , Immunohistochemistry , Logistic Models , Male , Middle Aged , Proportional Hazards Models , Respiratory Distress Syndrome/diagnosis , Respiratory Distress Syndrome/virology , Retrospective Studies , Severity of Illness Index , Up-Regulation
15.
PLoS One ; 16(9): e0257046, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1486676

ABSTRACT

The benefits of schools' closure, used as a containment strategy by many European countries, must be carefully considered against the adverse effects of child wellbeing. In this study, we assessed SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence, which better estimates the real extent of the infection unraveling asymptomatic cases, among schoolchildren aged 3 to 18 in Milan, using dried blood spot, a safe and extremely viable methods for children, and then compared it between September 2020 and January 2021. Secondly, we evaluated the seroconversion rate and compared it between students attending schools in presence and those switched to distance-learning, using a logistic regression model, both as univariate and multivariate, adjusting for age and biological-sex. Among 1109 pupils, we found a seroprevalence of 2.8% in September before school reopening, while in January 2021, the seropositive rate was 12.5%, reflecting the general growth rate of infections during the second pandemic wave. The overall seroconversion rate was 10%, with no differences based on biological-sex and age groups; we observed no seroreversion. When considered age groups, the seroconversion rate was 10.5% (95%Confidence Interval, 2.9-24.8) among children attending preschools, 10.6% (95%Confidence Interval, 8.2-13.4) for primary schools, 9.9% (95%Confidence Interval, 6.8-13.8) for secondary schools, and 7.8% (95%Confidence Interval, 4-13.2) among high-school students. Interestingly, no differences in seroconversion rate were found between students who attended school compared to those who started remote learning in the first days of November. Furthermore, most patients (61%) reported that the contact occurred within the household. We reported a low seroconversion rate among school children in Milan, with no differences between those who attended from September 2020 to January 2021 compared to those who switched to remote learning in the first days of November. Our data suggest that schools do not amplify SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but rather reflect the level of the transmission in the community.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/diagnosis , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Schools , Students/statistics & numerical data , Adolescent , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/virology , Child , Child, Preschool , Female , Humans , Italy/epidemiology , Logistic Models , Male , Multivariate Analysis , Pandemics/prevention & control , Prospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2/physiology , Seroepidemiologic Studies
16.
BMC Pulm Med ; 21(1): 338, 2021 Oct 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1486570

ABSTRACT

Severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) accompanies hypercytokinemia, similar to secondary hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (sHLH). We aimed to find if HScore could predict disease severity in COVID-19. HScore was calculated in hospitalized children and adult patients with a proven diagnosis of COVID-19. The need for intensive care unit (ICU), hospital length of stay (LOS), and in-hospital mortality were recorded. The median HScore was 43.0 (IQR 0.0-63.0), which was higher in those who needed ICU care (59.7, 95% CI 46.4-72.7) compared to those admitted to non-ICU medical wards (38.8, 95% CI 32.2-45.4; P = 0.003). It was also significantly higher in patients who died of COVID-19 (105.1, 95% CI 53.7-156.5) than individuals who survived (41.5, 95% CI 35.8-47.1; P = 0.005). Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that higher HScore was associated with a higher risk of ICU admission (adjusted OR = 4.93, 95% CI 1.5-16.17, P = 0.008). The risk of death increased by 20% for every ten units increase in HScore (adjusted OR 1.02, 95% CI 1.00-1.04, P = 0.009). Time to discharge was statistically longer in high HScore levels than low levels (HR = 0.41, 95% CI 0.24-0.69). HScore is much lower in patients with severe COVID-19 than sHLH. Higher HScore is associated with more ICU admission, more extended hospitalization, and a higher mortality rate. A modified HScore with a new cut-off seems more practical in predicting disease severity in patients with severe COVID-19.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/diagnosis , Severity of Illness Index , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19/mortality , COVID-19/pathology , COVID-19/therapy , COVID-19 Testing , Child , Child, Preschool , Critical Care/statistics & numerical data , Cytokine Release Syndrome/diagnosis , Cytokine Release Syndrome/virology , Female , Hospital Mortality , Hospitalization , Humans , Infant , Iran/epidemiology , Length of Stay/statistics & numerical data , Logistic Models , Male , Middle Aged , Predictive Value of Tests , Prognosis , Prospective Studies , Survival Analysis , Young Adult
17.
Dis Markers ; 2021: 3440714, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1484098

ABSTRACT

Background: It has been observed that COVID-19 may cause myocardial damage, but there are few detailed reports on myocardial enzyme abnormalities. Methods: In this retrospective study, we analyzed data from 157 consecutive laboratory-confirmed and hospitalized COVID-19 patients from Wuhan. We collected information on demographic and clinical characteristics, laboratory findings, and clinical outcomes. Logistic regression analysis was used to explore the risk factors associated with the severity of COVID-19. The association between myocardial enzyme abnormalities and the mortality was also investigated. Results: The mortality in abnormal myocardial enzyme group was obviously higher than the normal group (P < 0.001). The majority of patients (n = 72, 97.3%) with normal cardiac enzyme group were of the common novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP) type, whereas half of the patients with cardiac enzyme abnormalities (n = 40, 48.2%) developed critical and severe NCP type. The multivariable logistic regression analysis indicated that COVID-19 patients with increasing age (P = 0.035), higher levels of CRP (P = 0.038), and TNI (P = 0.036) were associated with increased death than other patients. Conclusions: Myocardial enzyme abnormality and myocardial injury were associated with the severity and fatal outcomes of COVID-19. Clinicians should pay attention to the markers of myocardial injury in COVID-19 patients, especially those with older age, comorbidities, and inflammation.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/enzymology , COVID-19/mortality , Enzymes/blood , Myocardium/enzymology , Adult , Alanine Transaminase/blood , COVID-19/blood , Creatine Kinase, MB Form/blood , Female , Humans , L-Lactate Dehydrogenase/blood , Logistic Models , Male , Middle Aged , Retrospective Studies , Troponin I/blood
19.
Medicine (Baltimore) ; 100(32): e26900, 2021 Aug 13.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1475915

ABSTRACT

ABSTRACT: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) can lead to serious illness and death, and thus, it is particularly important to predict the severity and prognosis of COVID-19. The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score has been used to predict the clinical outcomes of patients with multiple organ failure requiring intensive care. Therefore, we retrospectively analyzed the clinical characteristics, risk factors, and relationship between the SOFA score and the prognosis of COVID-19 patients.We retrospectively included all patients ≥18 years old who were diagnosed with COVID-19 in the laboratory continuously admitted to Jingzhou Central Hospital from January 16, 2020 to March 23, 2020. The demographic, clinical manifestations, complications, laboratory results, and clinical outcomes of patients infected with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 were collected and analyzed. Clinical variables were compared between patients with mild and severe COVID-19. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify the risk factors for severe COVID-19. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to analyze risk factors for hospital-related death. Survival analysis was performed by the Kaplan-Meier method, and survival differences were assessed by the log-rank test. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves of the SOFA score in different situations were drawn, and the area under the ROC curve was calculated.A total of 117 patients with confirmed diagnoses of COVID-19 were retrospectively analyzed, of which 108 patients were discharged and 9 patients died. The median age of the patients was 50.0 years old (interquartile range [IQR], 35.5-62.0). 63 patients had comorbidities, of which hypertension (27.4%) was the most frequent comorbidities, followed by diabetes (8.5%), stroke (4.3%), coronary heart disease (3.4%), and chronic liver disease (3.4%). The most common symptoms upon admission were fever (82.9%) and dry cough (70.1%). Regression analysis showed that high SOFA scores, advanced age, and hypertension were associated with severe COVID-19. The median SOFA score of all patients was 2 (IQR, 1-3). Patients with severe COVID-19 exhibited a significantly higher SOFA score than patients with mild COVID-19 (3 [IQR, 2-4] vs 1 [IQR, 0-1]; P  < .001). The SOFA score can better identify severe COVID-19, with an odds ratio of 5.851 (95% CI: 3.044-11.245; P < .001). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of the SOFA score in predicting severe COVID-19 (cutoff value = 2; AUC = 0.908 [95% CI: 0.857-0.960]; sensitivity: 85.20%; specificity: 80.40%) and the risk of death in COVID-19 patients (cutoff value = 5; AUC = 0.995 [95% CI: 0.985-1.000]; sensitivity: 100.00%; specificity: 95.40%). Regarding the 60-day mortality rates of patients in the 2 groups classified by the optimal cutoff value of the SOFA score (5), patients in the high SOFA score group (SOFA score ≥5) had a significantly greater risk of death than those in the low SOFA score group (SOFA score < 5).The SOFA score could be used to evaluate the severity and 60-day mortality of COVID-19. The SOFA score may be an independent risk factor for in-hospital death.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/complications , Organ Dysfunction Scores , Adult , Area Under Curve , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/mortality , Female , Humans , Logistic Models , Male , Middle Aged , Prognosis , Proportional Hazards Models , ROC Curve , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , Severity of Illness Index , Statistics, Nonparametric
20.
CMAJ Open ; 9(4): E929-E939, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1468744

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Health care workers have a critical role in the pandemic response to COVID-19 and may be at increased risk of infection. The objective of this study was to assess the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies among health care workers during and after the first wave of the pandemic. METHODS: We conducted a prospective multicentre cohort study involving health care workers in Ontario, Canada, to detect IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. Blood samples and self-reported questionnaires were obtained at enrolment, at 6 weeks and at 12 weeks. A community hospital, tertiary care pediatric hospital and a combined adult-pediatric academic health centre enrolled participants from Apr. 1 to Nov. 13, 2020. Predictors of seropositivity were evaluated using a multivariable logistic regression, adjusted for clustering by hospital site. RESULTS: Among the 1062 health care workers participating, the median age was 40 years, and 834 (78.5%) were female. Overall, 57 (5.4%) were seropositive at any time point (2.5% when participants with prior infection confirmed by polymerase chain reaction testing were excluded). Seroprevalence was higher among those who had a known unprotected exposure to a patient with COVID-19 (p < 0.001) and those who had been contacted by public health because of a nonhospital exposure (p = 0.003). Providing direct care to patients with COVID-19 or working on a unit with a COVID-19 outbreak was not associated with higher seroprevalence. In multivariable logistic regression, presence of symptomatic contacts in the household was the strongest predictor of seropositivity (adjusted odds ratio 7.15, 95% confidence interval 5.42-9.41). INTERPRETATION: Health care workers exposed to household risk factors were more likely to be seropositive than those not exposed, highlighting the need to emphasize the importance of public health measures both inside and outside of the hospital.


Subject(s)
Antibodies, Viral/blood , COVID-19/immunology , Health Personnel/statistics & numerical data , SARS-CoV-2/immunology , Adult , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/transmission , Cohort Studies , Female , Humans , Immunoglobulin G/blood , Logistic Models , Male , Middle Aged , Occupational Exposure/statistics & numerical data , Ontario/epidemiology , Prospective Studies , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , Seroepidemiologic Studies , Tertiary Care Centers
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