ABSTRACT
ABSTRACT: As severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 continues to spread, easy-to-use risk models that predict hospital mortality can assist in clinical decision making and triage. We aimed to develop a risk score model for in-hospital mortality in patients hospitalized with 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) that was robust across hospitals and used clinical factors that are readily available and measured standardly across hospitals.In this retrospective observational study, we developed a risk score model using data collected by trained abstractors for patients in 20 diverse hospitals across the state of Michigan (Mi-COVID19) who were discharged between March 5, 2020 and August 14, 2020. Patients who tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 during hospitalization or were discharged with an ICD-10 code for COVID-19 (U07.1) were included. We employed an iterative forward selection approach to consider the inclusion of 145 potential risk factors available at hospital presentation. Model performance was externally validated with patients from 19 hospitals in the Mi-COVID19 registry not used in model development. We shared the model in an easy-to-use online application that allows the user to predict in-hospital mortality risk for a patient if they have any subset of the variables in the final model.Two thousand one hundred and ninety-three patients in the Mi-COVID19 registry met our inclusion criteria. The derivation and validation sets ultimately included 1690 and 398 patients, respectively, with mortality rates of 19.6% and 18.6%, respectively. The average age of participants in the study after exclusions was 64âyears old, and the participants were 48% female, 49% Black, and 87% non-Hispanic. Our final model includes the patient's age, first recorded respiratory rate, first recorded pulse oximetry, highest creatinine level on day of presentation, and hospital's COVID-19 mortality rate. No other factors showed sufficient incremental model improvement to warrant inclusion. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve for the derivation and validation sets were .796 (95% confidence interval, .767-.826) and .829 (95% confidence interval, .782-.876) respectively.We conclude that the risk of in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients can be reliably estimated using a few factors, which are standardly measured and available to physicians very early in a hospital encounter.
Subject(s)
COVID-19/mortality , Hospital Mortality/trends , Age Factors , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Body Mass Index , Comorbidity , Creatinine/blood , Female , Health Behavior , Humans , Logistic Models , Male , Michigan/epidemiology , Middle Aged , Oximetry , Prognosis , ROC Curve , Racial Groups , Retrospective Studies , Risk Assessment , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2 , Severity of Illness Index , Sex Factors , Socioeconomic FactorsABSTRACT
Freshwater mussels (Unionida) are among the world's most imperiled taxa, but the relationship between freshwater mussel mortality events and infectious disease is largely unstudied. We surveyed viromes of a widespread and abundant species (mucket, Actinonaias ligamentina; syn: Ortmanniana ligamentina) experiencing a mortality event of unknown etiology in the Huron River, Michigan, in 2019-2020 and compared them to viromes from mucket in a healthy population in the St. Croix River, Wisconsin and a population from the Clinch River, Virginia and Tennessee, where a mortality event was affecting the congeneric pheasantshell (Actinonaias pectorosa; syn: Ortmanniana pectorosa) population. We identified 38 viruses, most of which were associated with mussels collected during the Huron River mortality event. Viral richness and cumulative viral read depths were significantly higher in moribund mussels from the Huron River than in healthy controls from each of the three populations. Our results demonstrate significant increases in the number and intensity of viral infections for freshwater mussels experiencing mortality events, whereas individuals from healthy populations have a substantially reduced virome comprising a limited number of species at low viral read depths.
Subject(s)
Bivalvia , Humans , Animals , Fresh Water , Rivers , Michigan , WisconsinABSTRACT
Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has drawn great attention since the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, not only due to its capability to circumvent the limitations of traditional clinical surveillance, but also due to its potential to forewarn fluctuations of disease incidences in communities. One critical application of WBE is to provide "early warnings" for upcoming fluctuations of disease incidences in communities which traditional clinical testing is incapable to achieve. While intricate models have been developed to determine early warnings based on wastewater surveillance data, there is an exigent need for straightforward, rapid, broadly applicable methods for health departments and partner agencies to implement. Our purpose in this study is to develop and evaluate such early-warning methods and clinical-case peak-detection methods based on WBE data to mount an informed public health response. Throughout an extended wastewater surveillance period across Detroit, MI metropolitan area (the entire study period is from September 2020 to May 2022) we designed eight early-warning methods (three real-time and five post-factum). Additionally, we designed three peak-detection methods based on clinical epidemiological data. We demonstrated the utility of these methods for providing early warnings for COVID-19 incidences, with their counterpart accuracies evaluated by hit rates. "Hit rates" were defined as the number of early warning dates (using wastewater surveillance data) that captured defined peaks (using clinical epidemiological data) divided by the total number of early warning dates. Hit rates demonstrated that the accuracy of both real-time and post-factum methods could reach 100 %. Furthermore, the results indicate that the accuracy was influenced by approaches to defining peaks of disease incidence. The proposed methods herein can assist health departments capitalizing on WBE data to assess trends and implement quick public health responses to future epidemics. Besides, this study elucidated critical factors affecting early warnings based on WBE amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Wastewater , Humans , Michigan/epidemiology , Pandemics , COVID-19/epidemiology , Wastewater-Based Epidemiological Monitoring , Data CollectionABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by SARS-CoV-2, has forced the health care delivery structure to change rapidly. The pandemic has further widened the disparities in health care and exposed vulnerable populations. Health care services caring for such populations must not only continue to operate but create innovative methods of care delivery without compromising safety. We present our experience of incorporating telemedicine in our university hospital-based outpatient clinic in one of the worst-hit areas in the world. OBJECTIVE: Our goal is to assess the adoption of a telemedicine service in the first month of its implementation in outpatient practice during the COVID-19 pandemic. We also want to assess the need for transitioning to telemedicine, the benefits and challenges in doing so, and ongoing solutions during the initial phase of the implementation of telemedicine services for our patients. METHODS: We conducted a prospective review of clinic operations data from the first month of a telemedicine rollout in the outpatient adult ambulatory clinic from April 1, 2020, to April 30, 2020. A telemedicine visit was defined as synchronous audio-video communication between the provider and patient for clinical care longer than 5 minutes or if the video visit converted to a telephone visit after 5 minutes due to technical problems. We recorded the number of telemedicine visits scheduled, visits completed, and the time for each visit. We also noted the most frequent billing codes used based on the time spent in the patient care and the number of clinical tasks (eg, activity suggested through diagnosis or procedural code) that were addressed remotely by the physicians. RESULTS: During the study period, we had 110 telemedicine visits scheduled, of which 94 (85.4%) visits were completed. The average duration of the video visit was 35 minutes, with the most prolonged visit lasting 120 minutes. Of 94 patients, 24 (25.54%) patients were recently discharged from the hospital, and 70 (74.46%) patients were seen for urgent care needs. There was a 50% increase from the baseline in the number of clinical tasks that were addressed by the physicians during the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: There was a high acceptance of telemedicine services by the patients, which was evident by a high show rate during the COVID-19 pandemic in Detroit. With limited staffing, restricted outpatient work hours, a shortage of providers, and increased outpatient needs, telemedicine was successfully implemented in our practice.
Subject(s)
Pandemics/prevention & control , Telemedicine/methods , Ambulatory Care/methods , COVID-19/complications , COVID-19/transmission , Humans , Michigan , Pandemics/statistics & numerical data , Patient Satisfaction , Prospective Studies , Retrospective Studies , Telemedicine/trends , Tertiary Care Centers/organization & administration , Tertiary Care Centers/trendsABSTRACT
During the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, use of preventive behaviors was associated with perceived risk for contracting SARS-CoV-2 infection (1,2). Over time, perceived risk has declined along with waning COVID-19-related media coverage (3,4). The extent to which communities continue to be aware of local COVID-19 transmission levels and are implementing recommended preventive behaviors is unknown. During June 1-July 31, 2022, health departments in DuPage County, Illinois and metropolitan Detroit, Michigan surveyed a combined total of 4,934 adults who had received a positive test result for SARS-CoV-2 during the preceding 3 weeks. The association between awareness of local COVID-19 transmission and use of preventive behaviors and practices was assessed, both in response to perceived local COVID-19 transmission levels and specifically during the 2 weeks preceding SARS-CoV-2 testing. Both areas had experienced sustained high COVID-19 transmission during the study interval as categorized by CDC COVID-19 transmission levels.* Overall, 702 (14%) respondents perceived local COVID-19 transmission levels as high, 987 (20%) as substantial, 1,902 (39%) as moderate, and 581 (12%) as low; 789 (16%) reported they did not know. Adjusting for geographic area, age, gender identity, and combined race and ethnicity, respondents who perceived local COVID-19 transmission levels as high were more likely to report having made behavioral changes because of the level of COVID-19 transmission in their area, including wearing a mask in public, limiting travel, and avoiding crowded places or events. Continued monitoring of public perceptions of local COVID-19 levels and developing a better understanding of their influence on the use of preventive behaviors can guide COVID-19 communication strategies and policy making during and beyond the pandemic.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Adult , Humans , Female , Male , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Pandemics/prevention & control , Michigan/epidemiology , COVID-19 Testing , SARS-CoV-2 , Gender Identity , Illinois/epidemiology , PerceptionABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: The seroprevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) IgG antibody was evaluated among employees of a Veterans Affairs healthcare system to assess potential risk factors for transmission and infection. METHODS: All employees were invited to participate in a questionnaire and serological survey to detect antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 as part of a facility-wide quality improvement and infection prevention initiative regardless of clinical or nonclinical duties. The initiative was conducted from June 8 to July 8, 2020. RESULTS: Of the 2,900 employees, 51% participated in the study, revealing a positive SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence of 4.9% (72 of 1,476; 95% CI, 3.8%-6.1%). There were no statistically significant differences in the presence of antibody based on gender, age, frontline worker status, job title, performance of aerosol-generating procedures, or exposure to known patients with coronavirus infectious disease 2019 (COVID-19) within the hospital. Employees who reported exposure to a known COVID-19 case outside work had a significantly higher seroprevalence at 14.8% (23 of 155) compared to those who did not 3.7% (48 of 1,296; OR, 4.53; 95% CI, 2.67-7.68; P < .0001). Notably, 29% of seropositive employees reported no history of symptoms for SARS-CoV-2 infection. CONCLUSIONS: The seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 among employees was not significantly different among those who provided direct patient care and those who did not, suggesting that facility-wide infection control measures were effective. Employees who reported direct personal contact with COVID-19-positive persons outside work were more likely to have SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Employee exposure to SARS-CoV-2 outside work may introduce infection into hospitals.
Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Health Personnel/statistics & numerical data , SARS-CoV-2 , Seroepidemiologic Studies , United States Department of Veterans Affairs/statistics & numerical data , Adolescent , Adult , COVID-19/etiology , Female , Humans , Male , Michigan/epidemiology , Middle Aged , Occupational Exposure/statistics & numerical data , Risk Factors , United States/epidemiology , Young AdultSubject(s)
Betacoronavirus , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control , Health Policy , Health Status Disparities , Healthcare Disparities , Pandemics/prevention & control , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control , Urban Health , COVID-19 , Cities , Coronavirus Infections/economics , Humans , Michigan/epidemiology , Pandemics/economics , Pneumonia, Viral/economics , SARS-CoV-2 , Socioeconomic Factors , Urban Health/economics , Urban Health/statistics & numerical dataABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES: Fragmented industry and occupation surveillance data throughout the COVID-19 pandemic has left public health practitioners and organizations with an insufficient understanding of high-risk worker groups and the role of work in SARS-CoV-2 transmission. METHODS: We drew sequential probability samples of noninstitutionalized adults (18+) in the Michigan Disease Surveillance System with COVID-19 onset before November 16, 2020 (N = 237,468). Among the 6000 selected, 1839 completed a survey between June 23, 2020, and April 23, 2021. We compared in-person work status, source of self-reported SARS-CoV-2 exposure, and availability of adequate personal protective equipment (PPE) by industry and occupation using weighted descriptive statistics and Rao-Scott χ2 tests. We identified industries with a disproportionate share of COVID-19 infections by comparing our sample with the total share of employment by industry in Michigan using 2020 data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. RESULTS: Employed respondents (n = 1244) were predominantly female (53.1%), aged 44 and under (54.4%), and non-Hispanic White (64.0%). 30.4% of all employed respondents reported work as the source of their SARS-CoV-2 exposure and 78.8% were in-person workers. Work-related exposure was prevalent in Nursing and Residential Care Facilities (65.2%); Justice, Public Order, and Safety Activities (63.3%); and Food Manufacturing (57.5%). By occupation, work-related exposure was highest among Protective Services (57.9%), Healthcare Support (56.5%), and Healthcare Practitioners (51.9%). Food Manufacturing; Nursing and Residential Care; and Justice, Public Order, and Safety Activities were most likely to report having adequate PPE "never" or "rarely" (36.4%, 27.9%, and 26.7%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Workplaces were a key source of self-reported SARS-CoV-2 exposure among employed Michigan residents during the first year of the pandemic. To prevent transmission, there is an urgent need in public health surveillance for the collection of industry and occupation data of people infected with COVID-19, as well as for future airborne infectious diseases for which we have little understanding of risk factors.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Personal Protective Equipment , Adult , Female , Humans , Male , COVID-19/epidemiology , Pandemics/prevention & control , SARS-CoV-2 , Self Report , Michigan/epidemiology , Occupations , Health PersonnelABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has severely impacted healthcare delivery and patient outcomes globally. AIMS: We aimed to evaluate the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the temporal trends and outcomes of patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in Michigan. METHODS: We compared all patients undergoing PCI in the BMC2 Registry between March and December 2020 ("pandemic cohort") with those undergoing PCI between March and December 2019 ("pre-pandemic cohort"). A risk-adjusted analysis of in-hospital outcomes was performed between the pre-pandemic and pandemic cohort. A subgroup analysis was performed comparing COVID-19 positive vs. negative patients during the pandemic. RESULTS: There was a 15.2% reduction in overall PCI volume from the pre-pandemic (n = 25,737) to the pandemic cohort (n = 21,822), which was more pronounced for stable angina and non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndromes (ACS) presentations, and between February and May 2020. Patients in the two cohorts had similar clinical and procedural characteristics. Monthly mortality rates for primary PCI were generally higher in the pandemic period. There were no significant system delays in care between the cohorts. Risk-adjusted mortality was higher in the pandemic cohort (aOR 1.26, 95% CI 1.07-1.47, p = 0.005), a finding that was only partially explained by worse outcomes in COVID-19 patients and was more pronounced in subjects with ACS. During the pandemic, COVID-19 positive patients suffered higher risk-adjusted mortality (aOR 5.69, 95% CI 2.54-12.74, p<0.001) compared with COVID negative patients. CONCLUSIONS: During the COVID-19 pandemic, we observed a reduction in PCI volumes and higher risk-adjusted mortality. COVID-19 positive patients experienced significantly worse outcomes.
Subject(s)
Acute Coronary Syndrome , COVID-19 , Percutaneous Coronary Intervention , COVID-19/epidemiology , Humans , Michigan/epidemiology , Pandemics , Percutaneous Coronary Intervention/adverse effects , Registries , Treatment OutcomeABSTRACT
COVID-19's rapid onset left many public health entities scrambling. But establishing community-academic partnerships to digest data and create advocacy steps offers an opportunity to link research to action. Here we document disparities in COVID-19 death uncovered during a collaboration between a health department and university research center. We geocoded COVID-19 deaths in Genesee County, Michigan, to model clusters during two waves in spring and fall 2020. We then aggregated these deaths to census block groups, where group-based trajectory modeling identified latent patterns of change and continuity. Linking with socioeconomic data, we identified the most affected communities. We discovered a geographic and racial gap in COVID-19 deaths during the first wave, largely eliminated during the second. Our partnership generated added and immediate value for community partners, including around prevention, testing, treatment, and vaccination. Our identification of the aforementioned racial disparity helped our community nearly eliminate disparities during the second wave.
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COVID-19 , Humans , Michigan/epidemiology , SeasonsABSTRACT
By enacting administrative rule 325.176 (12), Michigan added a vaccine education component as a precondition to granting vaccine waivers to vaccine-hesitant parents wishing to file a nonmedical vaccine exemption for their school-aged child. The purpose of the study was to identify best practices for reaching vaccine-hesitant parents during face-to-face vaccine education sessions conducted by vaccine waiver educators in Michigan. This study utilized qualitative descriptive content analysis of semi-structured phone interviews with vaccine waiver educators from local health departments (LHDs) in Michigan. Participants were vaccine waiver educators who were employed by a local health department in Michigan and had conducted at least 30 vaccine waiver education sessions. Strategies, resources, and techniques identified by educators as beneficial included using and providing information from a variety of sources, compiling their own educational materials, creating a positive experience, holding personalized sessions, and streamlining exemption and vaccination sessions. However, unexpected themes that emerged from the interviews revealed that vaccine waiver educators need additional training in discussing vaccine ingredients with parents, handling religious vaccine exemption requests, and assessing the role of schools. Implementing successful vaccine education interventions targeting vaccine-hesitancy is crucial to public health. Charging LHDs with overseeing vaccine education via a face-to-face discussion is a novel intervention strategy, the effective implementation of which may inform vaccine education intervention nationwide and may even be translated into international contexts and prove useful to current COVID-19 vaccination efforts.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Vaccines , Child , Humans , Michigan , COVID-19 Vaccines , Vaccination , Parents/educationABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: To determine the effects of the COVID-19 associated restrictions on the ability of owners in Michigan (MI), USA versus Ontario (ON) and British Columbia (BC), Canada, to obtain care for their chronically painful dogs. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey. POPULATION: A total of 90 owners met the inclusion criteria for the study. METHODS: An anonymous electronic survey was distributed to owners at four veterinary integrative medicine (IM) clinics during July and August 2020. Two clinics in MI and one each in ON and BC were recruited. Owners were asked about availability of IM care preceding and during COVID-19 restrictions and their opinions of the impact of COVID-19 on their dog's health. The survey asked where owners sought care for their dogs, types of chronic conditions treated, therapeutic modalities used, and if owners had a medical background. Comparisons were made within and between groups. Thematic analysis, Fisher's exact test, chi-square analyses, McNemar's and Wilcoxon signed-rank tests for paired comparisons were performed (p < 0.05). RESULTS: During COVID-19 restrictions, access to IM care was better for dogs in ON and BC than in MI (p < 0.001). The negative effect of the pandemic restrictions to IM care on quality of life was perceived greater by owners in MI than those in ON and BC (p < 0.001). The owners' medical backgrounds had no effect on attempts to access care during this time (p = 0.76). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: The results suggest that a widespread disease in humans had an adverse impact on animal welfare. Providers of veterinary care should use this experience to establish protocols to ensure continuity of care for chronically painful animals in the event of a similar situation in the future.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Dog Diseases , Veterinary Medicine , Animals , Dogs , Humans , British Columbia , Cross-Sectional Studies , Dog Diseases/therapy , Michigan , Ontario , Quality of Life , Surveys and Questionnaires , Health Services Accessibility/statistics & numerical data , Veterinary Medicine/statistics & numerical data , Social Control Policies/legislation & jurisprudence , Social Control Policies/statistics & numerical data , Pain/prevention & control , Pain/veterinaryABSTRACT
Objective: To slow down the spread of SARS-CoV-2, many countries have instituted preventive approaches (masks, social distancing) as well as the distribution of vaccines. Adherence to these preventive measures is crucial to the success of controlling the pandemic but decreased perceptions of disease severity could limit adherence. The aim of our study was to observe changes in perceived personal severity and perceived community severity; the study also explored their predictors. Methods: In a longitudinal study from an address-based probability survey in Detroit, we asked participants to rate their perceived severity of COVID-19 for themselves and for their community. In our analysis, 746 participants were queried across 5 waves of the Detroit Metro Area Communities Study surveys from March 31 to October 27 in 2020. We tested for trends in changes of self-reported perceived severity for themselves and for their community; we assessed the effects of different predictors of the two severities through mixed effects logistic regression models. Results: Our results highlight that the overall levels of perceived community and personal severity were decreasing over time even though both severities were fluctuating with rising confirmed case counts. Compared with non-Hispanic (NH) White Detroiters, NH Black Detroiters reported a higher perceived personal severity (OR: 5.30, 95% CI: 2.97, 9.47) but both groups reported similar levels of perceived community severity. We found steeper declines in perceived severity in NH White than NH Black Detroiters over time; the impact of education and income on perceived severity was attenuated in NH Black Detroiters compared with NH White Detroiters. Conclusions: Our findings suggested that perceived severity for COVID-19 decreased through time and was affected by different factors among varied racial/ethnic groups. Future interventions to slow the pace of the pandemic should take into account perceived personal and community severities among varied ethnic/racial subgroups.
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COVID-19 , Humans , Longitudinal Studies , Michigan/epidemiology , Pandemics/prevention & control , SARS-CoV-2ABSTRACT
We introduce a distributed-delay differential equation disease spread model for COVID-19 spread. The model explicitly incorporates the population's time-dependent vaccine uptake and incorporates a gamma-distributed temporary immunity period for both vaccination and previous infection. We validate the model on COVID-19 cases and deaths data from the state of Michigan and use the calibrated model to forecast the spread and impact of the disease under a variety of realistic booster vaccine strategies. The model suggests that the mean immunity duration for individuals after vaccination is 350 days and after a prior infection is 242 days. Simulations suggest that both high population-wide adherence to vaccination mandates and a more-than-annually frequency of booster doses will be required to contain outbreaks in the future.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Vaccines , Disease Outbreaks , Humans , Michigan , VaccinationABSTRACT
The COVID-19 pandemic creates psychological concerns and stress and its impacts are more extreme for those with health concerns residing in socially and economically disadvantaged communities, such as residents of Flint, Michigan. This study assesses the stress level among people who received community assistance in the first 3 months of COVID lockdowns. Further, it examines associations between stress and physical and mental health status. We measured perceived stress, health concerns, mental distress, and perceived physical and mental health from 106 survey respondents. Comparisons of stress levels by demographics showed that females, high school graduates, and homeowners had higher stress levels than its counterparts. Results from general linear models showed that stress was highest among those with high levels of psychological distress, perceived poor mental health, and more health concerns. The associations between poor perceived physical health and stress were marginal. Homeowners and high school diploma holders showed lower stress levels. This research suggests community health practices tailored to community characteristics and culture will have the greatest impact on stress and health problems in underserved communities.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Female , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , Pandemics , Michigan/epidemiology , Communicable Disease Control , Health StatusABSTRACT
Accurate estimates of the total burden of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are needed to inform policy, planning, and response. We sought to quantify SARS-CoV-2 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths by age in Michigan. Coronavirus disease 2019 cases reported to the Michigan Disease Surveillance System were multiplied by age and time-specific adjustment factors to correct for under-detection. Adjustment factors were estimated in a model fit to incidence data and seroprevalence estimates. Age-specific incidence of SARS-CoV-2 hospitalization, death, vaccination, and variant proportions were estimated from publicly available data. We estimated substantial under-detection of infection that varied by age and time. Accounting for under-detection, we estimate the cumulative incidence of infection in Michigan reached 75% by mid-November 2021, and over 87% of Michigan residents were estimated to have had ≥1 vaccination dose and/or previous infection. Comparing pandemic waves, the relative burden among children increased over time. In general, the proportion of cases who were hospitalized or who died decreased over time. Our results highlight the ongoing risk of periods of high SARS-CoV-2 incidence despite widespread prior infection and vaccination. This underscores the need for long-term planning for surveillance, vaccination, and other mitigation measures amidst continued response to the acute pandemic.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/epidemiology , Child , Humans , Michigan/epidemiology , Pandemics , Seroepidemiologic StudiesABSTRACT
Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is useful in predicting temporal fluctuations of COVID-19 incidence in communities and providing early warnings of pending outbreaks. To investigate the relationship between SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in wastewater and COVID-19 incidence in communities, a 12-month study between September 1, 2020, and August 31, 2021, prior to the Omicron surge, was conducted. 407 untreated wastewater samples were collected from the Great Lakes Water Authority (GLWA) in southeastern Michigan. N1 and N2 genes of SARS-CoV-2 were quantified using RT-ddPCR. Daily confirmed COVID-19 cases for the City of Detroit, and Wayne, Macomb, Oakland counties between September 1, 2020, and October 4, 2021, were collected from a public data source. The total concentrations of N1 and N2 genes ranged from 714.85 to 7145.98 gc/L and 820.47 to 6219.05 gc/L, respectively, which were strongly correlated with the 7-day moving average of total daily COVID-19 cases in the associated areas, after 5 weeks of the viral measurement. The results indicate a potential 5-week lag time of wastewater surveillance preceding COVID-19 incidence for the Detroit metropolitan area. Four statistical models were established to analyze the relationship between SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in wastewater and COVID-19 incidence in the study areas. Under a 5-week lag time scenario with both N1 and N2 genes, the autoregression model with seasonal patterns and vector autoregression model were more effective in predicting COVID-19 cases during the study period. To investigate the impact of flow parameters on the correlation, the original N1 and N2 gene concentrations were normalized by wastewater flow parameters. The statistical results indicated the optimum models were consistent for both normalized and non-normalized data. In addition, we discussed parameters that explain the observed lag time. Furthermore, we evaluated the impact of the omicron surge that followed, and the impact of different sampling methods on the estimation of lag time.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , COVID-19/epidemiology , Humans , Michigan/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , Wastewater , Wastewater-Based Epidemiological MonitoringABSTRACT
To address the discrepancy in the quality of care and outcomes between cystic fibrosis centers (CFCs) in high-income countries and limited resources countries (LRCs), a collaboration between our team at the University of Michigan CFC (UMCFC) and a CF center in Turkey (Marmara University CFC [MUCFC], Istanbul) was established. The collaboration included evaluation of all aspects of care and initiation of quality improvement (QI) measures. Teaching and implementing QI tools has led to start of improvement in MUCFC care. Close monitoring and sharing resources like UMCFC algorithms, protocols, and QI processes were done.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Cystic Fibrosis , COVID-19/epidemiology , Cystic Fibrosis/epidemiology , Cystic Fibrosis/therapy , Humans , Michigan/epidemiology , Pandemics , Quality Improvement , Turkey/epidemiology , United States/epidemiologyABSTRACT
Importance: The association of the COVID-19 pandemic with the quality of ambulatory care is unknown. Hospitalizations for ambulatory care-sensitive conditions (ACSCs) are a well-studied measure of the quality of ambulatory care; however, they may also be associated with other patient-level and system-level factors. Objective: To describe trends in hospital admissions for ACSCs in the prepandemic period (March 2019 to February 2020) compared with the pandemic period (March 2020 to February 2021). Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study of adults enrolled in a commercial health maintenance organization in Michigan included 1â¯240â¯409 unique adults (13â¯011â¯176 person-months) in the prepandemic period and 1â¯206â¯361 unique adults (12â¯759â¯675 person-months) in the pandemic period. Exposure: COVID-19 pandemic (March 2020 to February 2021). Main Outcomes and Measures: Adjusted relative risk (aRR) of ACSC hospitalizations and intensive care unit stays for ACSC hospitalizations and adjusted incidence rate ratio of the length of stay of ACSC hospitalizations in the prepandemic (March 2019 to February 2020) vs pandemic (March 2020 to February 2021) periods, adjusted for patient age, sex, calendar month of admission, and county of residence. Results: The study population included 1â¯240â¯409 unique adults (13â¯011â¯176 person-months) in the prepandemic period and 1â¯206â¯361 unique adults (12â¯759â¯675 person-months) in the pandemic period, in which 51.3% of person-months (n = 6â¯547â¯231) were for female patients, with a relatively even age distribution between the ages of 24 and 64 years. The relative risk of having any ACSC hospitalization in the pandemic period compared with the prepandemic period was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.69-0.76; P < .001). This decrease in risk was slightly larger in magnitude than the overall reduction in non-ACSC, non-COVID-19 hospitalization rates (aRR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.81-0.83; P < .001). Large reductions were found in the relative risk of respiratory-related ACSC hospitalizations (aRR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.50-0.58; P < .001), with non-statistically significant reductions in diabetes-related ACSCs (aRR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.83-1.00; P = .05) and a statistically significant reduction in all other ACSC hospitalizations (aRR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.74-0.85; P < .001). Among ACSC hospitalizations, no change was found in the percentage that included an intensive care unit stay (aRR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.94-1.04; P = .64), and no change was found in the length of stay (adjusted incidence rate ratio, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.98-1.06; P = .33). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study of adults enrolled in a large commercial health maintenance organization plan, the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with reductions in both non-ACSC and ACSC hospitalizations, with particularly large reductions seen in respiratory-related ACSCs. These reductions were likely due to many patient-level and health system-level factors associated with hospitalization rates. Further research into the causes and long-term outcomes associated with these reductions in ACSC admissions is needed to understand how the pandemic has affected the delivery of ambulatory and hospital care in the US.
Subject(s)
Ambulatory Care/statistics & numerical data , COVID-19/epidemiology , Critical Care/statistics & numerical data , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Cross-Sectional Studies , Facilities and Services Utilization , Female , Humans , Male , Michigan , Middle Aged , Retrospective Studies , Young AdultABSTRACT
Telehealth can benefit older adults during COVID-19. The purpose of this study was to understand benefits and barriers to telemedicine visits for older adults from the perspectives of family caregivers. A cross-sectional, online survey was conducted across the state of Michigan with family caregivers (n = 90) who responded to open- and closed-ended questions. Perceived benefits of telemedicine included access and rapport; barriers included the appropriateness of telemedicine for certain health care needs. Telemedicine is a likely to remain beyond COVID-19 and can facilitate access to and continuity of care. There are barriers, however, that must be addressed, especially among older patients.