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1.
PLoS Med ; 19(10): e1003979, 2022 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2196855

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Vaccines can be less immunogenic in people living with HIV (PLWH), but for SARS-CoV-2 vaccinations this is unknown. In this study we set out to investigate, for the vaccines currently approved in the Netherlands, the immunogenicity and reactogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 vaccinations in PLWH. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a prospective cohort study to examine the immunogenicity of BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, ChAdOx1-S, and Ad26.COV2.S vaccines in adult PLWH without prior COVID-19, and compared to HIV-negative controls. The primary endpoint was the anti-spike SARS-CoV-2 IgG response after mRNA vaccination. Secondary endpoints included the serological response after vector vaccination, anti-SARS-CoV-2 T-cell response, and reactogenicity. Between 14 February and 7 September 2021, 1,154 PLWH (median age 53 [IQR 44-60] years, 85.5% male) and 440 controls (median age 43 [IQR 33-53] years, 28.6% male) were included in the final analysis. Of the PLWH, 884 received BNT162b2, 100 received mRNA-1273, 150 received ChAdOx1-S, and 20 received Ad26.COV2.S. In the group of PLWH, 99% were on antiretroviral therapy, 97.7% were virally suppressed, and the median CD4+ T-cell count was 710 cells/µL (IQR 520-913). Of the controls, 247 received mRNA-1273, 94 received BNT162b2, 26 received ChAdOx1-S, and 73 received Ad26.COV2.S. After mRNA vaccination, geometric mean antibody concentration was 1,418 BAU/mL in PLWH (95% CI 1322-1523), and after adjustment for age, sex, and vaccine type, HIV status remained associated with a decreased response (0.607, 95% CI 0.508-0.725, p < 0.001). All controls receiving an mRNA vaccine had an adequate response, defined as >300 BAU/mL, whilst in PLWH this response rate was 93.6%. In PLWH vaccinated with mRNA-based vaccines, higher antibody responses were predicted by CD4+ T-cell count 250-500 cells/µL (2.845, 95% CI 1.876-4.314, p < 0.001) or >500 cells/µL (2.936, 95% CI 1.961-4.394, p < 0.001), whilst a viral load > 50 copies/mL was associated with a reduced response (0.454, 95% CI 0.286-0.720, p = 0.001). Increased IFN-γ, CD4+ T-cell, and CD8+ T-cell responses were observed after stimulation with SARS-CoV-2 spike peptides in ELISpot and activation-induced marker assays, comparable to controls. Reactogenicity was generally mild, without vaccine-related serious adverse events. Due to the control of vaccine provision by the Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, there were some differences between vaccine groups in the age, sex, and CD4+ T-cell counts of recipients. CONCLUSIONS: After vaccination with BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273, anti-spike SARS-CoV-2 antibody levels were reduced in PLWH compared to HIV-negative controls. To reach and maintain the same serological responses as HIV-negative controls, additional vaccinations are probably required. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was registered in the Netherlands Trial Register (NL9214). https://www.trialregister.nl/trial/9214.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Vaccines , COVID-19 , HIV Infections , Adult , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Ad26COVS1 , Antibodies, Viral , BNT162 Vaccine , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19 Vaccines/immunology , HIV Infections/immunology , Immunogenicity, Vaccine , Immunoglobulin G , Netherlands/epidemiology , Prospective Studies , RNA, Messenger , SARS-CoV-2
2.
Clin Infect Dis ; 74(12): 2173-2180, 2022 07 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2188401

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: In response to the recent serogroup W invasive meningococcal disease (IMD-W) epidemic in the Netherlands, meningococcal serogroup C (MenC) conjugate vaccination for children aged 14 months was replaced with a MenACWY conjugate vaccination, and a mass campaign targeting individuals aged 14-18 years was executed. We investigated the impact of MenACWY vaccination implementation in 2018-2020 on incidence rates and estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE). METHODS: We extracted IMD cases diagnosed between July 2014 and December 2020 from the national surveillance system. We calculated age group-specific incidence rate ratios by comparing incidence rates before (July 2017-March 2018) and after (July 2019-March 2020) MenACWY vaccination implementation. We estimated VE in vaccine-eligible cases using the screening method. RESULTS: Overall, the IMD-W incidence rate declined by 61% (95% confidence interval [CI], 40 to 74). It declined by 82% (95% CI, 18 to 96) in the vaccine-eligible age group (individuals aged 15-36 months and 14-18 years) and by 57% (95% CI, 34 to 72) in vaccine-noneligible age groups. VE was 92% (95% CI, -20 to 99.5) in vaccine-eligible toddlers (aged 15-36 months). No IMD-W cases were reported in vaccine-eligible teenagers after the campaign. CONCLUSIONS: The MenACWY vaccination program was effective in preventing IMD-W in the target population. The IMD-W incidence reduction in vaccine-noneligible age groups may be caused by indirect effects of the vaccination program. However, disentangling natural fluctuation from vaccine effect was not possible. Our findings encourage the use of toddler and teenager MenACWY vaccination in national immunization programs.


Subject(s)
Meningococcal Infections , Meningococcal Vaccines , Neisseria meningitidis, Serogroup C , Adolescent , Humans , Meningococcal Infections/epidemiology , Meningococcal Infections/prevention & control , Netherlands/epidemiology , Serogroup , Vaccination/methods , Vaccines, Conjugate
3.
Lancet Gastroenterol Hepatol ; 6(4): 304-314, 2021 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2184854

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer screening programmes worldwide have been disrupted during the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to estimate the impact of hypothetical disruptions to organised faecal immunochemical test-based colorectal cancer screening programmes on short-term and long-term colorectal cancer incidence and mortality in three countries using microsimulation modelling. METHODS: In this modelling study, we used four country-specific colorectal cancer microsimulation models-Policy1-Bowel (Australia), OncoSim (Canada), and ASCCA and MISCAN-Colon (the Netherlands)-to estimate the potential impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to screening on colorectal cancer incidence and mortality in Australia, Canada, and the Netherlands annually for the period 2020-24 and cumulatively for the period 2020-50. Modelled scenarios varied by duration of disruption (3, 6, and 12 months), decreases in screening participation after the period of disruption (0%, 25%, or 50% reduction), and catch-up screening strategies (within 6 months after the disruption period or all screening delayed by 6 months). FINDINGS: Without catch-up screening, our analysis predicted that colorectal cancer deaths among individuals aged 50 years and older, a 3-month disruption would result in 414-902 additional new colorectal cancer diagnoses (relative increase 0·1-0·2%) and 324-440 additional deaths (relative increase 0·2-0·3%) in the Netherlands, 1672 additional diagnoses (relative increase 0·3%) and 979 additional deaths (relative increase 0·5%) in Australia, and 1671 additional diagnoses (relative increase 0·2%) and 799 additional deaths (relative increase 0·3%) in Canada between 2020 and 2050, compared with undisrupted screening. A 6-month disruption would result in 803-1803 additional diagnoses (relative increase 0·2-0·4%) and 678-881 additional deaths (relative increase 0·4-0·6%) in the Netherlands, 3552 additional diagnoses (relative increase 0·6%) and 1961 additional deaths (relative increase 1·0%) in Australia, and 2844 additional diagnoses (relative increase 0·3%) and 1319 additional deaths (relative increase 0·4%) in Canada between 2020 and 2050, compared with undisrupted screening. A 12-month disruption would result in 1619-3615 additional diagnoses (relative increase 0·4-0·9%) and 1360-1762 additional deaths (relative increase 0·8-1·2%) in the Netherlands, 7140 additional diagnoses (relative increase 1·2%) and 3968 additional deaths (relative increase 2·0%) in Australia, and 5212 additional diagnoses (relative increase 0·6%) and 2366 additional deaths (relative increase 0·8%) in Canada between 2020 and 2050, compared with undisrupted screening. Providing immediate catch-up screening could minimise the impact of the disruption, restricting the relative increase in colorectal cancer incidence and deaths between 2020 and 2050 to less than 0·1% in all countries. A post-disruption decrease in participation could increase colorectal cancer incidence by 0·2-0·9% and deaths by 0·6-1·6% between 2020 and 2050, compared with undisrupted screening. INTERPRETATION: Although the projected effect of short-term disruption to colorectal cancer screening is modest, such disruption will have a marked impact on colorectal cancer incidence and deaths between 2020 and 2050 attributable to missed screening. Thus, it is crucial that, if disrupted, screening programmes ensure participation rates return to previously observed rates and provide catch-up screening wherever possible, since this could mitigate the impact on colorectal cancer deaths. FUNDING: Cancer Council New South Wales, Health Canada, and Dutch National Institute for Public Health and Environment.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Colorectal Neoplasms/diagnosis , Early Detection of Cancer , Occult Blood , Aged , Australia/epidemiology , Canada/epidemiology , Colorectal Neoplasms/epidemiology , Humans , Incidence , Middle Aged , Netherlands/epidemiology
4.
BMC Health Serv Res ; 22(1): 1407, 2022 Nov 24.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2139282

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: In this paper we explore how staff involved with infection prevention managed the emerging COVID-19 crisis in the context of scarcity of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE), focussing specifically on the (re)writing of guidelines. We conceptualize guidelines as 'mediating devices' as they translate between evidence and clinical practice, between management and the workplace, as well as the different values embedded in these domains. It is this mediation, we argue, that adds to the resilience of healthcare organizations. The setting for this research is an elite academic hospital in the Netherlands during the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: We conducted non-participative observations, semi-structured interviews, and document analysis during the emerging pandemic (March-July 2020). We observed meetings from the crisis team and the unit for infection prevention (210 hours), interviewed members of these teams (21 interviews) and analysed guidelines and flowcharts concerning infection prevention, as such collecting a unique and rich qualitative dataset. Analysis was done through thematic coding. RESULTS: Our results show the writing and rewriting of guidelines as a fundamental characteristic of dealing with scarcity and adding to resilience. We found three main practices our research participants engage in while trying to manage the uncertain situations emerging from the scarcity of personal protection equipment. The first practice we observe is defining safety; dealing with different perspectives and experiences of what 'working safely' means. The second entails the anticipation of scarcity by which our participants aim to control the situation through monitoring, research and creating scenarios. The third practice we observe is finding new ways to use PPE that is available, by experimenting and tinkering with the material. CONCLUSION: Infection prevention guidelines are crucial in managing the emerging crisis. We discuss how the writing of guidelines mediates between different settings, timeframes, and different worlds of quality. Through (re)writing there is a constant negotiation and discussion with the various actors about what works, and there is a continuous adaptive attitude. At the cost of a lot of work and struggle, this creates a resilient and inclusive work environment useful in a long-lasting crisis.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemics , Humans , Pandemics/prevention & control , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Netherlands/epidemiology , Qualitative Research , SARS-CoV-2
5.
Epidemiol Infect ; 150: e193, 2022 Nov 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2133097

ABSTRACT

During 6 weeks in February-March 2021, the Dutch municipal health service Utrecht studied the epidemiological effects on test incidence and the detection of acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) with mass testing (MT). During MT, inhabitants of Bunschoten could repeatedly test regardless of symptoms and as often as desired at the close-by test facilities in the municipality. Data from the regular COVID-19 registration was used for analysis. In Bunschoten, MT caused a significant increase in test incidence and an immediate increase in the number of detected active infections, in contrast to a stabilisation in the rest of the province of Utrecht. Age distribution of test incidence shifted to the older population in Bunschoten during MT. During MT, there was a 6.8 percentage point increase in detected asymptomatic cases, a 0.4 percentage point increase in pre-symptomatic cases and a decrease of 0.5 days between onset of symptoms and test date. This study has shown that MT increases test incidence and helps to obtain a more complete view of the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in a community, which can be useful in specific situations with a defined target group or goal. However, the question remains open whether the use of MT is proportionate to the overall gain.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Humans , Netherlands/epidemiology , COVID-19/epidemiology
6.
Int J Infect Dis ; 111: 196-203, 2021 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2113602

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: Streptococcus pneumoniae is the leading bacterial pathogen causing respiratory infections. Since the COVID-19 pandemic emerged, less invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) was identified by surveillance systems worldwide. Measures to prevent transmission of SARS-CoV-2 also reduce transmission of pneumococci, but this would gradually lead to lower disease rates. DESIGN: Here, we explore additional factors contributing to the instant drop in pneumococcal disease cases captured in surveillance. RESULTS: Our observations on referral practices and other impediments to diagnostic testing indicate that residual IPD has likely occurred but remained undetected by conventional hospital-based surveillance. CONCLUSIONS: Depending on the setting, we discuss alternative monitoring strategies that could improve understanding of pneumococcal disease dynamics.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pneumococcal Infections , Adult , Humans , Incidence , Infant , Netherlands/epidemiology , Pandemics , Pneumococcal Infections/epidemiology , Pneumococcal Vaccines , SARS-CoV-2
7.
Euro Surveill ; 27(45)2022 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2117963

ABSTRACT

BackgroundDifferential SARS-CoV-2 exposure between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals may confound vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates.AimWe conducted a test-negative case-control study to determine VE against SARS-CoV-2 infection and the presence of confounding by SARS-CoV-2 exposure.MethodsWe included adults tested for SARS-CoV-2 at community facilities between 4 July and 8 December 2021 (circulation period of the Delta variant). The VE against SARS-CoV-2 infection after primary vaccination with an mRNA (Comirnaty or Spikevax) or vector-based vaccine (Vaxzevria or Janssen) was calculated using logistic regression adjusting for age, sex and calendar week (Model 1). We additionally adjusted for comorbidity and education level (Model 2) and SARS-CoV-2 exposure (number of close contacts, visiting busy locations, household size, face mask wearing, contact with SARS-CoV-2 case; Model 3). We stratified by age, vaccine type and time since vaccination.ResultsVE against infection (Model 3) was 64% (95% CI: 50-73), only slightly lower than in Models 1 (68%; 95% CI: 58-76) and 2 (67%; 95% CI: 56-75). Estimates stratified by age group, vaccine and time since vaccination remained similar: mRNA VE (Model 3) among people ≥ 50 years decreased significantly (p = 0.01) from 81% (95% CI: 66-91) at < 120 days to 61% (95% CI: 22-80) at ≥ 120 days after vaccination. It decreased from 83% to 59% in Model 1 and from 81% to 56% in Model 2.ConclusionSARS-CoV-2 exposure did not majorly confound the estimated COVID-19 VE against infection, suggesting that VE can be estimated accurately using routinely collected data without exposure information.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 Vaccines , COVID-19 , Adult , Humans , Middle Aged , Netherlands/epidemiology , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Case-Control Studies , Vaccine Efficacy , SARS-CoV-2 , RNA, Messenger
8.
Euro Surveill ; 27(44)2022 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2109635

ABSTRACT

BackgroundSince the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines in late 2020 and throughout 2021, European governments have relied on mathematical modelling to inform policy decisions about COVID-19 vaccination.AimWe present a scenario-based modelling analysis in the Netherlands during summer 2021, to inform whether to extend vaccination to adolescents (12-17-year-olds) and children (5-11-year-olds).MethodsWe developed a deterministic, age-structured susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model and compared modelled incidences of infections, hospital and intensive care admissions, and deaths per 100,000 people across vaccination scenarios, before the emergence of the Omicron variant.ResultsOur model projections showed that, on average, upon the release of all non-pharmaceutical control measures on 1 November 2021, a large COVID-19 wave may occur in winter 2021/22, followed by a smaller, second wave in spring 2022, regardless of the vaccination scenario. The model projected reductions in infections/severe disease outcomes when vaccination was extended to adolescents and further reductions when vaccination was extended to all people over 5 years-old. When examining projected disease outcomes by age group, individuals benefitting most from extending vaccination were adolescents and children themselves. We also observed reductions in disease outcomes in older age groups, particularly of parent age (30-49 years), when children and adolescents were vaccinated, suggesting some prevention of onward transmission from younger to older age groups.ConclusionsWhile our scenarios could not anticipate the emergence/consequences of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant, we illustrate how our approach can assist decision making. This could be useful when considering to provide booster doses or intervening against future infection waves.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Child , Adolescent , Humans , Aged , Adult , Middle Aged , Child, Preschool , Netherlands/epidemiology , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19 Vaccines , Vaccination
9.
Euro Surveill ; 27(42)2022 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2089698

ABSTRACT

BackgroundDuring the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, key persons who were formally or informally active in community organisations and networks, such as sports clubs or cultural, educational, day care and healthcare facilities, occupied a key position between governments and citizens. However, their experiences, the dilemmas they faced and the solutions they generated when implementing COVID-19 measures in their respective settings are understudied.AimWe aimed to understand how key persons in different community organisations and networks experienced and responded to the COVID-19 measures in the Netherlands.MethodsBetween October 2020 and December 2021, the Corona Behavioural Unit at the Dutch national public health institute, conducted qualitative research based on narratives derived from 65 in-depth interviews with 95 key persons from 32 organisations and networks in eight different sectors.ResultsFirstly, key persons enhanced adherence and supported the resilience and well-being of people involved in their settings. Secondly, adherence was negatively affected where COVID-19 measures conflicted with important organisational goals and values. Thirdly, small changes and ambiguities in COVID-19 policy had substantial consequences, depending on the context. Fourthly, problem-solving was achieved through trial-and-error, peer support, co-creation and transparent communication. Lastly, the COVID-19 pandemic and measures highlighted inequalities in access to resources.ConclusionPandemic preparedness requires organisational and community preparedness and a multidisciplinary public health approach. Structural engagement of governments with key persons in community organisations and networks is key to enhance public trust and adherence to pandemic measures and contributes to health equity and the well-being of the people involved.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemics , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , Public Health , Netherlands/epidemiology
10.
PLoS One ; 17(10): e0276696, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2089442

ABSTRACT

An outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant (Pango lineage B.1.1.7) was detected at a primary school (School X) in Lansingerland, the Netherlands, in December 2020. The outbreak was studied retrospectively, and population-based screening was used to assess the extent of virus circulation and decelerate transmission. Cases were SARS-CoV-2 laboratory confirmed and were residents of Lansingerland (November 16th 2020 until February 22th 2021), or had an epidemiological link with School X or neighbouring schools. The SARS-CoV-2 variant was determined using variant PCR or whole genome sequencing. A questionnaire primarily assessed clinical symptoms. A total of 77 Alpha variant cases were found with an epidemiological link to School X, 16 Alpha variant cases linked to the neighbouring schools, and 146 Alpha variant cases among residents of Lansingerland without a link to the schools. The mean number of self-reported symptoms was not significantly different among Alpha variant infected individuals compared to non-Alpha infected individuals. The secondary attack rate (SAR) among Alpha variant exposed individuals in households was 52% higher compared to non-Alpha variant exposed individuals (p = 0.010), with the mean household age, and mean number of children and adults per household as confounders. Sequence analysis of 60 Alpha variant sequences obtained from cases confirmed virus transmission between School X and neighbouring schools, and showed that multiple introductions of the Alpha variant had already taken place in Lansingerland at the time of the study. The alpha variant caused a large outbreak at both locations of School X, and subsequently spread to neighbouring schools, and households. Population-based screening (together with other public health measures) nearly stopped transmission of the outbreak strain, but did not prevent variant replacement in the Lansingerland municipality.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Child , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control , Netherlands/epidemiology , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , Schools
11.
Aging Clin Exp Res ; 34(11): 2913-2917, 2022 Nov.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2075752

ABSTRACT

AIMS: The aim of the current study was to compare cancellations or postponement of medical care among older adults during the COVID-19 pandemic between 2021 and 2020. METHODS: Data of respondents aged ≥ 62 years were used from the longitudinal aging study Amsterdam (LASA), collected in 2020 and 2021, directly after the main COVID-19 waves in the Netherlands. A questionnaire assessed cancellations of medical care and postponed help-seeking behavior. Descriptive analyses were performed. RESULTS: Overall, cancellations declined from 35% in 2020 (sample n = 1128) to 17% in 2021 (sample n = 1020). Healthcare-initiated cancellations declined from 29 to 8%. Respondent-initiated cancellations declined from 12 to 7%. Postponed help-seeking remained around 8%. CONCLUSIONS: In 2021, less cancellations were reported compared to just after the first wave of the pandemic in 2020, while postponed help-seeking remained the same. It is important to investigate how cancellations and postponed help-seeking can be prevented in future pandemics.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Humans , Aged , COVID-19/epidemiology , Pandemics , Netherlands/epidemiology , Delivery of Health Care , Patient Care
12.
J Alzheimers Dis ; 89(1): 359-366, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2065414

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Disease modifying treatments (DMTs) currently under development for Alzheimer's disease, have the potential to prevent or postpone institutionalization and more expensive care and might delay institutionalization of persons with dementia. OBJECTIVE: The current study estimates costs of living in a nursing home for persons with dementia in the Netherlands to help inform economic evaluations of future DMTs. METHODS: Data were collected during semi-structured interviews with healthcare professionals and from the financial administration of a healthcare organization with several nursing homes. Personnel costs were calculated using a bottom-up approach by valuing the time estimates. Non-personnel costs were calculated using information from the financial administration of the healthcare organization. RESULTS: Total costs of a person with dementia per 24 hours, including both care staff and other healthcare providers, were € 151 for small-scale living wards and € 147 for independent living wards. Non-personnel costs were € 37 per day. CONCLUSION: This study provides Dutch estimates for total healthcare costs per day for institutionalized persons with dementia. These cost estimates can be used in cost-effectiveness analyses for future DMTs in dementia.


Subject(s)
Dementia , Dementia/epidemiology , Dementia/therapy , Health Care Costs , Humans , Institutionalization , Netherlands/epidemiology , Nursing Homes
13.
JMIR Public Health Surveill ; 8(10): e38450, 2022 10 20.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2065313

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 was first identified in December 2019 in the city of Wuhan, China. The virus quickly spread and was declared a pandemic on March 11, 2020. After infection, symptoms such as fever, a (dry) cough, nasal congestion, and fatigue can develop. In some cases, the virus causes severe complications such as pneumonia and dyspnea and could result in death. The virus also spread rapidly in the Netherlands, a small and densely populated country with an aging population. Health care in the Netherlands is of a high standard, but there were nevertheless problems with hospital capacity, such as the number of available beds and staff. There were also regions and municipalities that were hit harder than others. In the Netherlands, there are important data sources available for daily COVID-19 numbers and information about municipalities. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to predict the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infections per 10,000 inhabitants per municipality in the Netherlands, using a data set with the properties of 355 municipalities in the Netherlands and advanced modeling techniques. METHODS: We collected relevant static data per municipality from data sources that were available in the Dutch public domain and merged these data with the dynamic daily number of infections from January 1, 2020, to May 9, 2021, resulting in a data set with 355 municipalities in the Netherlands and variables grouped into 20 topics. The modeling techniques random forest and multiple fractional polynomials were used to construct a prediction model for predicting the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infections per 10,000 inhabitants per municipality in the Netherlands. RESULTS: The final prediction model had an R2 of 0.63. Important properties for predicting the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infections per 10,000 inhabitants in a municipality in the Netherlands were exposure to particulate matter with diameters <10 µm (PM10) in the air, the percentage of Labour party voters, and the number of children in a household. CONCLUSIONS: Data about municipality properties in relation to the cumulative number of confirmed infections in a municipality in the Netherlands can give insight into the most important properties of a municipality for predicting the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infections per 10,000 inhabitants in a municipality. This insight can provide policy makers with tools to cope with COVID-19 and may also be of value in the event of a future pandemic, so that municipalities are better prepared.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Child , Humans , Aged , COVID-19/epidemiology , Netherlands/epidemiology , Cities/epidemiology , Particulate Matter , Cough , Algorithms
14.
Int J Med Inform ; 167: 104863, 2022 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2041812

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: To assess, validate and compare the predictive performance of models for in-hospital mortality of COVID-19 patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) over two different waves of infections. Our models were built with high-granular Electronic Health Records (EHR) data versus less-granular registry data. METHODS: Observational study of all COVID-19 patients admitted to 19 Dutch ICUs participating in both the national quality registry National Intensive Care Evaluation (NICE) and the EHR-based Dutch Data Warehouse (hereafter EHR). Multiple models were developed on data from the first 24 h of ICU admissions from February to June 2020 (first COVID-19 wave) and validated on prospective patients admitted to the same ICUs between July and December 2020 (second COVID-19 wave). We assessed model discrimination, calibration, and the degree of relatedness between development and validation population. Coefficients were used to identify relevant risk factors. RESULTS: A total of 1533 patients from the EHR and 1563 from the registry were included. With high granular EHR data, the average AUROC was 0.69 (standard deviation of 0.05) for the internal validation, and the AUROC was 0.75 for the temporal validation. The registry model achieved an average AUROC of 0.76 (standard deviation of 0.05) in the internal validation and 0.77 in the temporal validation. In the EHR data, age, and respiratory-system related variables were the most important risk factors identified. In the NICE registry data, age and chronic respiratory insufficiency were the most important risk factors. CONCLUSION: In our study, prognostic models built on less-granular but readily-available registry data had similar performance to models built on high-granular EHR data and showed similar transportability to a prospective COVID-19 population. Future research is needed to verify whether this finding can be confirmed for upcoming waves.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , COVID-19/epidemiology , Electronic Health Records , Hospital Mortality , Humans , Intensive Care Units , Netherlands/epidemiology , Registries , Retrospective Studies
15.
Elife ; 112022 09 13.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2030291

ABSTRACT

Background: Variants of concern (VOCs) of SARS-CoV-2 have caused resurging waves of infections worldwide. In the Netherlands, the Alpha, Beta, Gamma, and Delta VOCs circulated widely between September 2020 and August 2021. We sought to elucidate how various control measures, including targeted flight restrictions, had impacted the introduction and spread of these VOCs in the Netherlands. Methods: We performed phylogenetic analyses on 39,844 SARS-CoV-2 genomes collected under the Dutch national surveillance program. Results: We found that all four VOCs were introduced before targeted flight restrictions were imposed on countries where the VOCs first emerged. Importantly, foreign introductions, predominantly from other European countries, continued during these restrictions. After their respective introductions into the Netherlands, the Alpha and Delta VOCs largely circulated within more populous regions of the country with international connections before asymmetric bidirectional transmissions occurred with the rest of the country and the VOC became the dominant circulating lineage. Conclusions: Our findings show that flight restrictions had limited effectiveness in deterring VOC introductions due to the strength of regional land travel importation risks. As countries consider scaling down SARS-CoV-2 surveillance efforts in the post-crisis phase of the pandemic, our results highlight that robust surveillance in regions of early spread is important for providing timely information for variant detection and outbreak control. Funding: None.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/epidemiology , Humans , Netherlands/epidemiology , Phylogeny , SARS-CoV-2/genetics
17.
BMC Infect Dis ; 22(1): 713, 2022 Aug 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2021249

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Variant of concern (VOC) SARS-CoV-2 alpha variant (B.1.1.7) was the dominant strain in the Netherlands between March 2021-June 2021. We describe three primary school outbreaks due to the alpha variant using whole genome sequencing with evidence of large-scale transmission among children, teachers and their household contacts. METHOD: All outbreaks described were investigated by the South Limburg Public Health Service, the Netherlands. A case was defined as an individual with a real-time polymerase chain reaction test or antigen test positive for SARS-CoV-2. Whole genome sequencing was performed on random samples from at least one child and one teacher of each affected class. RESULTS: Peak attack rates in classes were 53%, 33% and 39%, respectively. Specific genotypes were identified for each school across a majority of affected classes. Attack rates were high among staff members, likely to promote staff-to-children transmission. Cases in some classes were limited to children, indicating child-to-child transmission. At 39%, the secondary attack rate (SAR) in household contacts of infected children was remarkably high, similar to SAR in household contacts of staff members (42%). SAR of household contacts of asymptomatic children was only 9%. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest increased transmissibility of the alpha variant in children compared to preceding non-VOC variants, consistent with a substantial rise in the incidence of cases observed in primary schools and children aged 5-12 since the alpha variant became dominant in March 2021. Lack of mandatory masking, insufficient ventilation and lack of physical distancing also probably contributed to the school outbreaks. The rise of the delta variant (B.1.617.2) since July 2021 which is estimated to be 55% more transmissible than the alpha variant, provides additional urgency to adequate infection prevention in school settings.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/epidemiology , Disease Outbreaks , Humans , Netherlands/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , Schools , Whole Genome Sequencing
18.
Int J Hyg Environ Health ; 245: 114022, 2022 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2000444

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: In the Netherlands, during the first phase of the COVID-19 epidemic, the hotspot of COVID-19 overlapped with the country's main livestock area, while in subsequent phases this distinct spatial pattern disappeared. Previous studies show that living near livestock farms influence human respiratory health and immunological responses. This study aimed to explore whether proximity to livestock was associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. METHODS: The study population was the population of the Netherlands excluding the very strongly urbanised areas and border areas, on January 1, 2019 (12, 628, 244 individuals). The cases are the individuals reported with a laboratory-confirmed positive SARS-CoV-2 test with onset before January 1, 2022 (2, 223, 692 individuals). For each individual, we calculated distance to nearest livestock farm (cattle, goat, sheep, pig, poultry, horse, rabbit, mink). The associations between residential (6-digit postal-code) distance to the nearest livestock farm and individuals' SARS-CoV-2 status was studied with multilevel logistic regression models. Models were adjusted for individuals' age categories, the social status of the postal code area, particulate matter (PM10)- and nitrogen dioxide (NO2)-concentrations. We analysed data for the entire period and population as well as separately for eight time periods (Jan-Mar, Apr-Jun, Jul-Sep and Oct-Dec in 2020 and 2021), four geographic areas of the Netherlands (north, east, west and south), and for five age categories (0-14, 15-24, 25-44, 45-64 and > 65 years). RESULTS: Over the period 2020-2021, individuals' SARS-CoV-2 status was associated with living closer to livestock farms. This association increased from an Odds Ratio (OR) of 1.01 (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.01-1.02) for patients living at a distance of 751-1000 m to a farm to an OR of 1.04 (95% CI 1.04-1.04), 1.07 (95% CI 1.06-1.07) and 1.11 (95% CI 1.10-1.12) for patients living in the more proximate 501-750 m, 251-500m and 0-250 m zones around farms, all relative to patients living further than 1000 m around farms. This association was observed in three out of four quarters of the year in both 2020 and 2021, and in all studied geographic areas and age groups. CONCLUSIONS: In this exploratory study with individual SARS-CoV-2 notification data and high-resolution spatial data associations were found between living near livestock farms and individuals' SARS-CoV-2 status in the Netherlands. Verification of the results in other countries is warranted, as well as investigations into possible underlying exposures and mechanisms.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Livestock , Aged , Animals , COVID-19/epidemiology , Cattle , Farms , Horses , Humans , Netherlands/epidemiology , Rabbits , SARS-CoV-2 , Sheep , Swine
19.
Int J Colorectal Dis ; 37(9): 2013-2020, 2022 Sep.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1999924

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: The COVID-19 pandemic had a major impact on the health services worldwide. We aimed to investigate the impact of the pandemic on colorectal cancer (CRC) care in the Netherlands in 2020. METHODS: CRC patients, diagnosed in 2018-2020 in the Netherlands, were selected from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (NCR). The year 2020 was divided in four periods reflecting COVID-19 developments in the Netherlands (pre-COVID, 1st peak, recovery period, 2nd peak) and compared with the same periods in 2018/2019. Patient characteristics and treatment were compared using the Chi-squared test. Median time between diagnosis and treatment, and between (neo)adjuvant therapy and surgery were analyzed by the Mann-Whitney U test. RESULTS: In total, 38,021 CRC patients were diagnosed in 2018/2019 (n = 26,816) and 2020 (n = 11,205). Median time between diagnosis and initial treatment decreased on average 4 days and median time between neoadjuvant radiotherapy and surgery in clinical stage II or III rectal cancer patients increased on average 34 days during the three COVID-19 periods compared to the same periods of 2018/2019. The proportion of colon cancer patients that underwent elective surgery significantly decreased with 3.0% during the 1st peak. No differences were found in the proportion of patients who received (neo)adjuvant therapy, systemic therapy, or no anti-cancer treatment. CONCLUSION: Only minor changes in the care for CRC patients occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, mostly during the 1st peak. In conclusion, the impact on CRC care in the Netherlands was found to be limited. However, long-term effects cannot be precluded.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Colorectal Neoplasms , Rectal Neoplasms , COVID-19/epidemiology , Colorectal Neoplasms/diagnosis , Colorectal Neoplasms/epidemiology , Colorectal Neoplasms/therapy , Humans , Netherlands/epidemiology , Pandemics , Rectal Neoplasms/epidemiology
20.
Eur J Epidemiol ; 37(10): 1035-1047, 2022 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1990695

ABSTRACT

The impact of COVID-19 on population health is recognised as being substantial, yet few studies have attempted to quantify to what extent infection causes mild or moderate symptoms only, requires hospital and/or ICU admission, results in prolonged and chronic illness, or leads to premature death. We aimed to quantify the total disease burden of acute COVID-19 in the Netherlands in 2020 using the disability-adjusted life-years (DALY) measure, and to investigate how burden varies between age-groups and occupations. Using standard methods and diverse data sources (mandatory notifications, population-level seroprevalence, hospital and ICU admissions, registered COVID-19 deaths, and the literature), we estimated years of life lost (YLL), years lived with disability, DALY and DALY per 100,000 population due to COVID-19, excluding post-acute sequelae, stratified by 5-year age-group and occupation category. The total disease burden due to acute COVID-19 was 286,100 (95% CI: 281,700-290,500) DALY, and the per-capita burden was 1640 (95% CI: 1620-1670) DALY/100,000, of which 99.4% consisted of YLL. The per-capita burden increased steeply with age, starting from 60 to 64 years, with relatively little burden estimated for persons under 50 years old. SARS-CoV-2 infection and associated premature mortality was responsible for a considerable direct health burden in the Netherlands, despite extensive public health measures. DALY were much higher than for other high-burden infectious diseases, but lower than estimated for coronary heart disease. These findings are valuable for informing public health decision-makers regarding the expected COVID-19 health burden among population subgroups, and the possible gains from targeted preventative interventions.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Disabled Persons , Humans , Middle Aged , Quality-Adjusted Life Years , Disability-Adjusted Life Years , Seroepidemiologic Studies , Netherlands/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2 , Cost of Illness
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