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1.
BMC Cancer ; 21(1): 1094, 2021 Oct 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1463236

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: To ensure safe delivery of oncologic care during the COVID-19 pandemic, telemedicine has been rapidly adopted. However, little data exist on the impact of telemedicine on quality and accessibility of oncologic care. This study assessed whether conducting an office visit for thoracic oncology patients via telemedicine affected time to treatment initiation and accessibility. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of patients with thoracic malignancies seen by a multidisciplinary team during the first surge of COVID-19 cases in Philadelphia (March 1 to June 30, 2020). Patients with an index visit for a new phase of care, defined as a new diagnosis, local recurrence, or newly discovered metastatic disease, were included. RESULTS: 240 distinct patients with thoracic malignancies were seen: 132 patients (55.0%) were seen initially in-person vs 108 (45.0%) via telemedicine. The majority of visits were for a diagnosis of a new thoracic cancer (87.5%). Among newly diagnosed patients referred to the thoracic oncology team, the median time from referral to initial visit was significantly shorter amongst the patients seen via telemedicine vs. in-person (median 5.0 vs. 6.5 days, p < 0.001). Patients received surgery (32.5%), radiation (24.2%), or systemic therapy (30.4%). Time from initial visit to treatment initiation by modality did not differ by telemedicine vs in-person: surgery (22 vs 16 days, p = 0.47), radiation (27.5 vs 27.5 days, p = 0.86, systemic therapy (15 vs 13 days, p = 0.45). CONCLUSIONS: Rapid adoption of telemedicine allowed timely delivery of oncologic care during the initial surge of the COVID19 pandemic by a thoracic oncology multi-disciplinary clinic.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Health Services Accessibility , Pandemics , Telemedicine/organization & administration , Thoracic Neoplasms/therapy , Time-to-Treatment , Aged , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Neoplasm Recurrence, Local , Patient Care Team , Philadelphia/epidemiology , Quality of Health Care , Referral and Consultation , Retrospective Studies , Telemedicine/standards , Telemedicine/statistics & numerical data , Thoracic Neoplasms/epidemiology , Thoracic Neoplasms/pathology , Time Factors
2.
Health Aff (Millwood) ; 40(10): 1566-1574, 2021 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1450738

ABSTRACT

Acute stress during pregnancy can have adverse effects on maternal health and increase the risk for postpartum depression and impaired mother-infant bonding. The COVID-19 pandemic represents an acute environmental stressor during which it is possible to explore risk and resilience factors that contribute to postpartum outcomes. To investigate prenatal risk and resilience factors as predictors of postpartum depression and impaired mother-infant bonding, this study recruited a diverse cohort of 833 pregnant women from an urban medical center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and assessed them once during pregnancy in the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic (April-July 2020) and again at approximately twelve weeks postpartum. Adverse childhood experiences, prenatal depression and anxiety, and COVID-19-related distress predicted a greater likelihood of postpartum depression. Prenatal depression was the only unique predictor of impaired maternal-infant bonding after postpartum depression was controlled for. Women reporting greater emotion regulation, self-reliance, and nonhostile relationships had healthier postpartum outcomes. Policies to increase the number of nonspecialty providers providing perinatal mental health services as well as reimbursement for integrated care and access to mental health screening and care are needed to improve lifelong outcomes for women and their children.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Depression, Postpartum , Child , Depression, Postpartum/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Infant , Mothers , Pandemics , Philadelphia/epidemiology , Pregnancy , SARS-CoV-2
3.
PLoS One ; 16(10): e0258213, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1450733

ABSTRACT

Our objective was to describe how residents of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, coped psychologically with the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic. In a cross-sectional design, we aimed to estimate the rates and correlates of anxiety and depression, examine how specific worries correlated with general anxiety and depression, and synthesize themes of "the most difficult experiences" shared by the respondents. We collected data through an on-line survey in a convenience sample of 1,293 adult residents of Philadelphia, PA between April 17 and July 3, 2020, inquiring about symptoms of anxiety and depression (via the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale), specific worries, open-ended narratives of "the most difficult experiences" (coded into themes), demographics, perceived sources of support, and general health. Anxiety was evident among 30 to 40% of participants and depression-about 10%. Factor analysis revealed two distinct, yet inter-related clusters of specific worries related to mood disorders: concern about "hardships" and "fear of infection". Regression analyses revealed that anxiety, depression, and fear of infection, but not concern about hardships, worsened over the course of the epidemic. "The most difficult experiences" characterized by loss of income, poor health of self or others, uncertainty, death of a relative or a friend, and struggle accessing food were each associated with some of the measures of worries and mood disorders. Respondents who believed they could rely on support of close personal network fared better psychologically than those who reported relying primarily on government and social services organizations. Thematic analysis revealed complex perceptions of the pandemic by the participants, giving clues to both positive and negative experiences that may have affected how they coped. Despite concerns about external validity, our observations are concordant with emerging evidence of psychological toll of the COVID-19 pandemic and measures employed to mitigate risk of infection.


Subject(s)
Adaptation, Psychological , COVID-19/epidemiology , Mood Disorders/diagnosis , Adult , Anxiety/pathology , COVID-19/pathology , COVID-19/virology , Cross-Sectional Studies , Depression/pathology , Female , Humans , Internet , Male , Middle Aged , Mood Disorders/psychology , Pandemics , Philadelphia/epidemiology , Regression Analysis , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Surveys and Questionnaires
5.
J Occup Environ Med ; 63(5): e283-e293, 2021 05 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1301401

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: We investigated whether patterns of work during COVID-19 pandemic altered by effort to contain the outbreak affected anxiety and depression. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional online survey of 911 residents of Philadelphia, inquiring about their working lives during early months of the epidemic, symptoms of anxiety and depression, plus demographics, perceived sources of support, and general health. RESULTS: Occupational contact with suspected COVID-19 cases was associated with anxiety. Concerns about return to work, childcare, lack of sick leave, and loss/reduction in work correlated with anxiety and depression, even when there was no evidence of occupational contact with infected persons; patterns differed by sex. CONCLUSIONS: Heightened anxiety and depression during COVID-19 pandemic can be due to widespread disruption of working lives, especially in "non-essential" low-income industries, on par with experience in healthcare.


Subject(s)
Anxiety/epidemiology , COVID-19/psychology , Depression/epidemiology , Employment/classification , Employment/psychology , Adult , Communicable Disease Control/methods , Cross-Sectional Studies , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Philadelphia/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2 , Surveys and Questionnaires , Teleworking , Unemployment/psychology
7.
Am J Med Sci ; 362(4): 355-362, 2021 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1240157

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) carries high morbidity and mortality globally. Identification of patients at risk for clinical deterioration upon presentation would aid in triaging, prognostication, and allocation of resources and experimental treatments. RESEARCH QUESTION: Can we develop and validate a web-based risk prediction model for identification of patients who may develop severe COVID-19, defined as intensive care unit (ICU) admission, mechanical ventilation, and/or death? METHODS: This retrospective cohort study reviewed 415 patients admitted to a large urban academic medical center and community hospitals. Covariates included demographic, clinical, and laboratory data. The independent association of predictors with severe COVID-19 was determined using multivariable logistic regression. A derivation cohort (n=311, 75%) was used to develop the prediction models. The models were tested by a validation cohort (n=104, 25%). RESULTS: The median age was 66 years (Interquartile range [IQR] 54-77) and the majority were male (55%) and non-White (65.8%). The 14-day severe COVID-19 rate was 39.3%; 31.7% required ICU, 24.6% mechanical ventilation, and 21.2% died. Machine learning algorithms and clinical judgment were used to improve model performance and clinical utility, resulting in the selection of eight predictors: age, sex, dyspnea, diabetes mellitus, troponin, C-reactive protein, D-dimer, and aspartate aminotransferase. The discriminative ability was excellent for both the severe COVID-19 (training area under the curve [AUC]=0.82, validation AUC=0.82) and mortality (training AUC= 0.85, validation AUC=0.81) models. These models were incorporated into a mobile-friendly website. CONCLUSIONS: This web-based risk prediction model can be used at the bedside for prediction of severe COVID-19 using data mostly available at the time of presentation.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/mortality , Critical Care/statistics & numerical data , Models, Statistical , Respiration, Artificial/statistics & numerical data , Aged , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Philadelphia/epidemiology , Retrospective Studies , Risk Assessment
8.
Nat Commun ; 12(1): 2274, 2021 04 15.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1189224

ABSTRACT

Massive unemployment during the COVID-19 pandemic could result in an eviction crisis in US cities. Here we model the effect of evictions on SARS-CoV-2 epidemics, simulating viral transmission within and among households in a theoretical metropolitan area. We recreate a range of urban epidemic trajectories and project the course of the epidemic under two counterfactual scenarios, one in which a strict moratorium on evictions is in place and enforced, and another in which evictions are allowed to resume at baseline or increased rates. We find, across scenarios, that evictions lead to significant increases in infections. Applying our model to Philadelphia using locally-specific parameters shows that the increase is especially profound in models that consider realistically heterogenous cities in which both evictions and contacts occur more frequently in poorer neighborhoods. Our results provide a basis to assess eviction moratoria and show that policies to stem evictions are a warranted and important component of COVID-19 control.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/transmission , Communicable Disease Control/methods , Housing/legislation & jurisprudence , Pandemics/prevention & control , Policy , COVID-19/economics , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/virology , Cities/legislation & jurisprudence , Cities/statistics & numerical data , Communicable Disease Control/legislation & jurisprudence , Computer Simulation , Housing/economics , Humans , Models, Statistical , Philadelphia/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity , Unemployment/statistics & numerical data , Urban Population/statistics & numerical data
10.
J Urban Health ; 98(2): 222-232, 2021 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1147614

ABSTRACT

Geographic inequalities in COVID-19 diagnosis are now well documented. However, we do not sufficiently know whether inequalities are related to social characteristics of communities, such as collective engagement. We tested whether neighborhood social cohesion is associated with inequalities in COVID-19 diagnosis rate and the extent the association varies across neighborhood racial composition. We calculated COVID-19 diagnosis rates in Philadelphia, PA, per 10,000 general population across 46 ZIP codes, as of April 2020. Social cohesion measures were from the Southeastern Pennsylvania Household Health Survey, 2018. We estimated Poisson regressions to quantify associations between social cohesion and COVID-19 diagnosis rate, testing a multiplicative interaction with Black racial composition in the neighborhood, which we operationalize via a binary indicator of ZIP codes above vs. below the city-wide average (41%) Black population. Two social cohesion indicators were significantly associated with COVID-19 diagnosis. Associations varied across Black neighborhood racial composition (p <0.05 for the interaction test). In ZIP codes with ≥41% of Black people, higher collective engagement was associated with an 18% higher COVID-19 diagnosis rate (IRR=1.18, 95%CI=1.11, 1.26). In contrast, areas with <41% of Black people, higher engagement was associated with a 26% lower diagnosis rate (IRR=0.74, 95%CI=0.67, 0.82). Neighborhood social cohesion is associated with both higher and lower COVID-19 diagnosis rates, and the extent of associations varies across Black neighborhood racial composition. We recommend some strategies for reducing inequalities based on the segmentation model within the social cohesion and public health intervention framework.


Subject(s)
African Americans , COVID-19 , COVID-19 Testing , Cooperative Behavior , Humans , Philadelphia/epidemiology , Residence Characteristics , SARS-CoV-2
11.
Clin Orthop Relat Res ; 479(8): 1691-1699, 2021 08 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1132600

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Many patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are asymptomatic. The prevalence of COVID-19 in orthopaedic populations will vary depending on the time and place where the sampling is performed. The idea that asymptomatic carriers play a role is generalizable but has not been studied in large populations of patients undergoing elective orthopaedic surgery. We therefore evaluated this topic in one large, metropolitan city in a state that had the ninth-most infections in the United States at the time this study was completed (June 2020). This work was based on a screening and testing protocol that required all patients to be tested for COVID-19 preoperatively. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES: (1) What is the prevalence of asymptomatic COVID-19 infection in patients planning to undergo orthopaedic surgery in one major city, in order to provide other surgeons with a framework for assessing COVID-19 rates in their healthcare system? (2) How did patients with positive test results for COVID-19 differ in terms of age, sex, and orthopaedic conditions? (3) What proportion of patients had complications treated, and how many patients had a symptomatic COVID-19 infection within 30 days of surgery (recognizing that some may have been missed and so our estimates of event rates will necessarily underestimate the frequency of this event)? METHODS: All adult patients scheduled for surgery at four facilities (two tertiary care hospitals, one orthopaedic specialty hospital, and one ambulatory surgery center) at a single institution in the Philadelphia metropolitan area from April 27, 2020 to June 12, 2020 were included in this study. A total of 1295 patients were screened for symptoms, exposure, temperature, and oxygen saturation via a standardized protocol before surgical scheduling; 1.5% (19 of 1295) were excluded because they had COVID-19 symptoms, exposure, or recent travel based on the initial screening questionnaire, leaving 98.5% (1276 of 1295) who underwent testing for COVID-19 preoperatively. All 1276 patients who passed the initial screening test underwent nasopharyngeal swabbing for COVID-19 via reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction before surgery. The mean age at the time of testing was 56 ± 16 years, and 53% (672 of 1276) were men. Eighty-seven percent (1106), 8% (103), and 5% (67) were tested via the Roche, Abbott, and Cepheid assays, respectively. All patients undergoing elective surgery were tested via the Roche assay, while those undergoing nonelective surgery received either the Abbott or Cepheid assay, based on availability. Patients with positive test results undergoing elective surgery had their procedures rescheduled, while patients scheduled for nonelective surgery underwent surgery regardless of their test results. Additionally, we reviewed the records of all patients at 30 days postoperatively for emergency room visits, readmissions, and COVID-19-related complications via electronic medical records and surgeon-reported complications. However, we had no method for definitively determining how many patients had complications, emergency department visits, or readmissions outside our system, so our event rate estimates for these endpoints are necessarily best-case estimates. RESULTS: A total of 0.5% (7 of 1276) of the patients tested positive for COVID-19: five via the Roche assay and two via the Abbott assay. Patients with positive test results were younger than those with negative results (39 ± 12 years versus 56 ± 16 years; p = 0.01). With the numbers available, we found no difference in the proportion of patients with positive test results for COVID-19 based on subspecialty area (examining the lowest and highest point estimates, respectively, we observed: trauma surgery [3%; 2 of 68 patients] versus hip and knee [0.3%; 1 of 401 patients], OR 12 [95% CI 1-135]; p = 0.06). No patients with negative preoperative test results for COVID-19 developed a symptomatic COVID-19 infection within 30 days postoperatively. Within 30 days of surgery, 0.9% (11 of 1276) of the patients presented to the emergency room, and 1.3% (16 of 1276) were readmitted for non-COVID-19-related complications. None of the patients with positive test results for COVID-19 preoperatively experienced complications. However, because some were likely treated outside our healthcare system, the actual percentages may be higher. CONCLUSION: Because younger patients are more likely to be asymptomatic carriers of disease, surgeons should emphasize the importance of taking proper precautions to prevent virus exposure preoperatively. Because the rates of COVID-19 infection differ based on city and time, surgeons should monitor the local prevalence of disease to properly advise patients on the risk of COVID-19 exposure. Further investigation is required to assess the prevalence in the orthopaedic population in cities with larger COVID-19 burdens. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III, therapeutic study.


Subject(s)
Asymptomatic Infections/epidemiology , COVID-19/epidemiology , Mass Screening/statistics & numerical data , Orthopedic Procedures/statistics & numerical data , Preoperative Care/statistics & numerical data , Adult , COVID-19/virology , COVID-19 Testing/statistics & numerical data , Female , Humans , Longitudinal Studies , Male , Middle Aged , Philadelphia/epidemiology , Prevalence , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2 , United States/epidemiology
12.
Am J Obstet Gynecol MFM ; 2(4): 100226, 2020 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1064756

ABSTRACT

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 has challenged obstetrical care providers. Universal testing on labor and delivery units has been implemented by many hospitals to ensure patient and staff safety. Asymptomatic carrier rates are expected to vary based on geographic differences in disease prevalence, although differences within the same city have not been reported previously. In addition, clinical follow-up of women who had a negative result for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 during obstetrical hospitalization has not been included in any previous reports. Objective: This study aimed to describe the prevalence of positive severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 test results among asymptomatic pregnant women at 2 Philadelphia obstetrical hospitals, characterize the clinical course of those who had a positive result, and report symptom development among all women tested in the 2 weeks after hospitalization. Study Design: This is an observational study of asymptomatic pregnant women who underwent severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 testing at 2 academic health centers (Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania and Pennsylvania Hospital) in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, between April 13, 2020, and April 26, 2020. All women tested were contacted via telephone for symptom follow-up at 1 and 2 weeks after discharge. Asymptomatic positive test rates are reported for the overall population and by hospital. The hospital and 2-week posthospital course are described for women who had a positive result for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. Posthospital symptom development among women who had a negative result for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is also described. Results: A total of 318 asymptomatic women underwent severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 testing during this 2-week period; 8 women had a positive result. The overall asymptomatic test positive rate was 2.5%. The rate at Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania was 3.8% compared with 1.3% at Pennsylvania Hospital (P=.283). Of note, 3 women (37.5%) who were initially asymptomatic developed mild symptoms in the 2 weeks after a positive test result. Repeat severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 testing was performed in 14 of the 310 women (4.5%) who initially had a negative result; 2 women (0.6%) had a positive result on repeat testing. Moreover, 242 (78.1%) and 213 (68.7%) of the 310 women who had a negative result for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 at the time of the initial hospitalization were followed up via telephone at 1 and 2 weeks after admission, respectively. Viral symptoms, including fevers, chills, shortness of breath, or cough, were self-reported in 4.5% and 4.2% of these women at 1 and 2 weeks after discharge, respectively. Conclusion: The asymptomatic positive severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 test rate among an obstetrical population in Philadelphia differed between 2 hospitals and was lower than that described in other geographic regions. This supports the importance of institution-specific testing protocols. The development of symptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection after hospitalization among women with initial negative test results is uncommon.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Carrier State , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Pregnancy Complications, Infectious , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Adult , Aftercare/methods , Aftercare/organization & administration , Aftercare/statistics & numerical data , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/physiopathology , COVID-19 Testing/methods , Carrier State/diagnosis , Carrier State/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Philadelphia/epidemiology , Pregnancy , Pregnancy Complications, Infectious/diagnosis , Pregnancy Complications, Infectious/epidemiology , Pregnancy Complications, Infectious/physiopathology , Prevalence , Symptom Assessment/statistics & numerical data
13.
mBio ; 12(1)2021 01 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1066822

ABSTRACT

The severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the cause of the global outbreak of COVID-19. The epidemic accelerated in Philadelphia, PA, in the spring of 2020, with the city experiencing a first peak of infections on 15 April, followed by a decline through midsummer. Here, we investigate spread of the epidemic in the first wave in Philadelphia using full-genome sequencing of 52 SARS-CoV-2 samples obtained from 27 hospitalized patients collected between 30 March and 17 July 2020. Sequences most commonly resembled lineages circulating at earlier times in New York, suggesting transmission primarily from this location, though a minority of Philadelphia genomes matched sequences from other sites, suggesting additional introductions. Multiple genomes showed even closer matches to other Philadelphia isolates, suggestive of ongoing transmission within Philadelphia. We found that all of our isolates contained the D614G substitution in the viral spike and belong to lineages variously designated B.1, Nextstrain clade 20A or 20C, and GISAID clade G or GH. There were no viral sequence polymorphisms detectably associated with disease outcome. For some patients, genome sequences were determined longitudinally or concurrently from multiple body sites. In both cases, some comparisons showed reproducible polymorphisms, suggesting initial seeding with multiple variants and/or accumulation of polymorphisms after infection. These results thus provide data on the sources of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Philadelphia and begin to explore the dynamics within hospitalized patients.IMPORTANCE Understanding how SARS-CoV-2 spreads globally and within infected individuals is critical to the development of mitigation strategies. We found that most lineages in Philadelphia had resembled sequences from New York, suggesting infection primarily but not exclusively from this location. Many genomes had even nearer neighbors within Philadelphia, indicating local spread. Multiple genome sequences were available for some subjects and in a subset of cases could be shown to differ between time points and body sites within an individual, indicating heterogeneous viral populations within individuals and raising questions on the mechanisms responsible. There was no evidence that different lineages were associated with different outcomes in patients, emphasizing the importance of individual-specific vulnerability.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/virology , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , A549 Cells , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme 2/genetics , COVID-19/epidemiology , Female , Genome, Viral , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , New York/epidemiology , Philadelphia/epidemiology , Phylogeny , Polymorphism, Genetic , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus/genetics
15.
Int J Environ Res Public Health ; 18(2)2021 01 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1016182

ABSTRACT

The consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on behavioral health, including tobacco use, are not fully known. The current study sought to measure the perceived impact of COVID-19 and the resulting stay-at-home orders in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania and Buffalo, New York on smokers enrolled in four smoking cessation trials between March 2020 and July 2020. The survey collected quantitative data regarding life changes due to COVID-19, health/exposure status, and the impact on their cessation attempt (e.g., motivation to quit, change in triggers). The questionnaire collected qualitative data to better understand how such changes could explain changes in smoking behavior. Of the 42 participants surveyed, approximately half indicated that COVID-19 changed their motivation and ability to quit or remain quit. Among those who reported that it was easier to quit following the stay-at-home orders (n = 24), most attributed this to concerns regarding the severity of COVID-19 among smokers. Among those who reported more difficulty quitting (n = 15), most attributed this to their increased stress due to the pandemic and the inability to access activities, places, or people that could help them manage triggers. Given public health warnings of continued surges in COVID-19, these data provide insight into who may benefit from further smoking cessation support should existing restrictions or new stay-at-home orders be enacted.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Motivation , Patient Acceptance of Health Care/statistics & numerical data , Smokers , Smoking Cessation/statistics & numerical data , Humans , New York/epidemiology , Pandemics , Philadelphia/epidemiology , Surveys and Questionnaires
16.
Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol ; 36: 100401, 2021 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1014822

ABSTRACT

Surveillance data obtained by public health agencies for COVID-19 are likely inaccurate due to undercounting and misdiagnosing. Using a Bayesian approach, we sought to reduce bias in the estimates of prevalence of COVID-19 in Philadelphia, PA at the ZIP code level. After evaluating various modeling approaches in a simulation study, we estimated true prevalence by ZIP code with and without conditioning on an area deprivation index (ADI). As of June 10, 2020, in Philadelphia, the observed citywide period prevalence was 1.5%. After accounting for bias in the surveillance data, the median posterior citywide true prevalence was 2.3% when accounting for ADI and 2.1% when not. Overall the median posterior surveillance sensitivity and specificity from the models were similar, about 60% and more than 99%, respectively. Surveillance of COVID-19 in Philadelphia tends to understate discrepancies in burden for the more affected areas, potentially misinforming mitigation priorities.


Subject(s)
Bayes Theorem , COVID-19/epidemiology , Population Surveillance , Spatial Analysis , Bias , Humans , Philadelphia/epidemiology , Prevalence , SARS-CoV-2 , Sensitivity and Specificity
17.
Am J Emerg Med ; 41: 51-54, 2021 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1002242

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Since the beginning of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in the United States, there have been concerns about the potential impact of the pandemic on persons with opioid use disorder. Shelter-in-place (SIP) orders, which aimed to reduce the spread and scope of the virus, likely also impacted this patient population. This study aims to assess the role of the COVID-19 pandemic on the incidence of opioid overdose before and after a SIP order. METHODS: A retrospective review of the incidence of opioid overdoses in an urban three-hospital system was conducted. Comparisons were made between the first 100 days of a city-wide SIP order during the COVID-19 pandemic and the 100 days during the COVID-19 pandemic preceding the SIP order (Pre-SIP). Differences in observed incidence and expected incidence during the SIP period were evaluated using a Fisher's Exact test. RESULTS: Total patient visits decreased 22% from 46,078 during the Pre-SIP period to 35,971 during the SIP period. A total of 1551 opioid overdoses were evaluated during the SIP period, compared to 1665 opioid overdoses during the Pre-SIP period, consistent with a 6.8% decline. A Fisher's Exact Test demonstrated a p < 0.0001, with a corresponding Odds Ratio of 1.20 with a 95% confidence interval (1.12;1.29). CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic and the associated SIP order were associated with a statistically and clinically significant increase in the proportion of opioid overdoses in relation to the overall change in total ED visits.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Opiate Overdose/epidemiology , Pandemics , Quarantine , Emergency Service, Hospital/statistics & numerical data , Facilities and Services Utilization , Humans , Incidence , Opiate Overdose/mortality , Philadelphia/epidemiology , Physical Distancing , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2
19.
Front Public Health ; 8: 579559, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-844409

ABSTRACT

The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has elicited an abrupt pause in the United States in multiple sectors of commerce and social activity. As the US faces this health crisis, the magnitude and rigor of their initial public health response was unprecedented. As a response, the entire nation shutdown at the state-level for the duration of a ~1-3 months. These public health interventions, however, were not arbitrarily decided, but rather, implemented as a result of evidence-based practices. These practices were a result of lessons learned during the 1918 influenza pandemic and the city-level non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) taken across the US. During the 1918 pandemic, two model cities, St. Louis, MO, and Philadelphia, PA, carried out two different approaches to address the spreading disease, which resulted in two distinctly different outcomes. Our group has evaluated the state-level public health response adopted by states across the US, with a focus on New York, California, Florida, and Texas, and compared the effectiveness of reducing the spread of COVID-19. Our assessments show that while the states mentioned above benefited from the implementations of early preventative measures, they inadequately replicated the desired outcomes observed in St. Louis during the 1918 crisis. Our study indicates that there are other factors, including health disparities that may influence the effectiveness of public health interventions applied. Identifying more specific health determinants may help implement targeted interventions aimed at preventing the spread of COVID-19 and improving health equity.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Florida , Humans , New York , Philadelphia/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2 , Texas , United States/epidemiology
20.
J Vasc Surg Venous Lymphat Disord ; 9(3): 585-591.e2, 2021 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-813723

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Infection with the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 has been associated with a hypercoagulable state. Emerging data from China and Europe have consistently shown an increased incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE). We aimed to identify the VTE incidence and early predictors of VTE at our high-volume tertiary care center. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of 147 patients who had been admitted to Temple University Hospital with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from April 1, 2020 to April 27, 2020. We first identified the VTE (pulmonary embolism [PE] and deep vein thrombosis [DVT]) incidence in our cohort. The VTE and no-VTE groups were compared by univariable analysis for demographics, comorbidities, laboratory data, and treatment outcomes. Subsequently, multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the early predictors of VTE. RESULTS: The 147 patients (20.9% of all admissions) admitted to a designated COVID-19 unit at Temple University Hospital with a high clinical suspicion of acute VTE had undergone testing for VTE using computed tomography pulmonary angiography and/or extremity venous duplex ultrasonography. The overall incidence of VTE was 17% (25 of 147). Of the 25 patients, 16 had had acute PE, 14 had had acute DVT, and 5 had had both PE and DVT. The need for invasive mechanical ventilation (adjusted odds ratio, 3.19; 95% confidence interval, 1.07-9.55) and the admission D-dimer level ≥1500 ng/mL (adjusted odds ratio, 3.55; 95% confidence interval, 1.29-9.78) were independent markers associated with VTE. The all-cause mortality in the VTE group was greater than that in the non-VTE group (48% vs 22%; P = .007). CONCLUSIONS: Our study represents one of the earliest reported from the United States on the incidence rate of VTE in patients with COVID-19. Patients with a high clinical suspicion and the identified risk factors (invasive mechanical ventilation, admission D-dimer level ≥1500 ng/mL) should be considered for early VTE testing. We did not screen all patients admitted for VTE; therefore, the true incidence of VTE could have been underestimated. Our findings require confirmation in future prospective studies.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Fibrin Fibrinogen Degradation Products/analysis , Pulmonary Embolism , Respiration, Artificial/methods , Venous Thrombosis , COVID-19/blood , COVID-19/complications , COVID-19/epidemiology , Computed Tomography Angiography/methods , Female , Humans , Incidence , Male , Middle Aged , Philadelphia/epidemiology , Prognosis , Pulmonary Embolism/diagnosis , Pulmonary Embolism/epidemiology , Pulmonary Embolism/etiology , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2 , Thrombophilia/blood , Thrombophilia/diagnosis , Thrombophilia/etiology , Ultrasonography, Doppler, Duplex/methods , Venous Thrombosis/diagnosis , Venous Thrombosis/epidemiology , Venous Thrombosis/etiology
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