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1.
F1000Res ; 9: 1286, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1110755

ABSTRACT

Background: Case fatality rate of COVID-19 patients in Surabaya is higher than global cases. Thus, it is important to identify risk factors to reduce the mortality rate. This study aimed to assess the factors associated with hospital mortality of COVID-19 patients, and develop a prediction score based on these findings. Methods: We analyzed 111 patients, who were diagnosed with COVID-19 based on reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. The following patient characteristics were obtained from records: age, gender, type of symptoms, onset of symptoms, neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR), absolute lymphocyte count, chest x-ray abnormalities, lung involvement, type of lesion, radiographic assessment of the quantity of lung edema (RALE) score, and mortality. Data were analyzed using SPSS 25.0. Results Multivariate analysis showed that age >50 years ( p=0.043), NLR score >5.8 ( p=0.016) and RALE score >2 ( p=0.002) can predict the mortality of COVID-19 patients in the hospital. ROC curve analysis of the score ability to predict mortality showed an area under the curve of 0.794. The cut-off point is 4.5, with a sensitivity of 96.7% and specificity of 49.4% to predict the mortality of COVID-19 patient in the hospital. Conclusions Age, NLR score and RALE score were associated with mortality of COVID-19 patients in the hospital and could be used as a predictor for discharge probability of COVID-19 patients in low health care resource setting. The prediction score may be useful for frontline physicians to effectively manage patients with a higher score to prevent mortality.


Subject(s)
Age Factors , Edema/diagnostic imaging , Hospital Mortality , Lymphocytes/cytology , Neutrophils/cytology , Adult , Aged , Female , Humans , Lung/diagnostic imaging , Lung/physiopathology , Male , Middle Aged , Respiratory Sounds , Retrospective Studies
2.
BMJ Open ; 11(2): e043721, 2021 02 22.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1096993

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: Although the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) and its latest version NEWS2 are recommended for monitoring deterioration in patients admitted to hospital, little is known about their performance in COVID-19 patients. We aimed to compare the performance of the NEWS and NEWS2 in patients with COVID-19 versus those without during the first phase of the pandemic. DESIGN: A retrospective cross-sectional study. SETTING: Two acute hospitals (Scarborough and York) are combined into a single dataset and analysed collectively. PARTICIPANTS: Adult (≥18 years) non-elective admissions discharged between 11 March 2020 and 13 June 2020 with an index or on-admission NEWS2 electronically recorded within ±24 hours of admission to predict mortality at four time points (in-hospital, 24 hours, 48 hours and 72 hours) in COVID-19 versus non-COVID-19 admissions. RESULTS: Out of 6480 non-elective admissions, 620 (9.6%) had a diagnosis of COVID-19. They were older (73.3 vs 67.7 years), more often male (54.7% vs 50.1%), had higher index NEWS (4 vs 2.5) and NEWS2 (4.6 vs 2.8) scores and higher in-hospital mortality (32.1% vs 5.8%). The c-statistics for predicting in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 admissions was significantly lower using NEWS (0.64 vs 0.74) or NEWS2 (0.64 vs 0.74), however, these differences reduced at 72hours (NEWS: 0.75 vs 0.81; NEWS2: 0.71 vs 0.81), 48 hours (NEWS: 0.78 vs 0.81; NEWS2: 0.76 vs 0.82) and 24hours (NEWS: 0.84 vs 0.84; NEWS2: 0.86 vs 0.84). Increasing NEWS2 values reflected increased mortality, but for any given value the absolute risk was on average 24% higher (eg, NEWS2=5: 36% vs 9%). CONCLUSIONS: The index or on-admission NEWS and NEWS2 offers lower discrimination for COVID-19 admissions versus non-COVID-19 admissions. The index NEWS2 was not proven to be better than the index NEWS. For each value of the index NEWS/NEWS2, COVID-19 admissions had a substantially higher risk of mortality than non-COVID-19 admissions which reflects the increased baseline mortality risk of COVID-19.


Subject(s)
Early Warning Score , Hospital Mortality , Adult , Aged , /therapy , Cross-Sectional Studies , Female , Humans , Male , Patient Admission , Retrospective Studies , Risk Assessment/methods , United Kingdom/epidemiology
3.
Epidemiol Health ; 43: e2021007, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1094290

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: This study explored socioeconomic disparities in Korea using health insurance type as a proxy during the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using Korea's nationwide healthcare database, which contained all individuals who received a diagnostic test for COVID-19 (n=232,390) as of May 15, 2020. We classified our cohort by health insurance type into beneficiaries of the National Health Insurance (NHI) or Medicaid programs. Our study outcomes were infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and COVID-19-related outcomes, a composite of all-cause death, intensive care unit admission, and mechanical ventilation use. We estimated age-, sex-, and Charlson comorbidity index score-adjusted odds ratios (aORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using a multivariable logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Of the 218,070 NHI and 14,320 Medicaid beneficiaries who received COVID-19 tests, 7,777 and 738 tested positive, respectively. The Medicaid beneficiaries were older (mean age, 57.5 vs. 47.8 years), more likely to be males (47.2 vs. 40.2%), and had a higher comorbidity burden (mean CCI, 2.0 vs. 1.7) than NHI beneficiaries. Compared to NHI beneficiaries, Medicaid beneficiaries had a 22% increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection (aOR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.38), but had no significantly elevated risk of COVID-19-related outcomes (aOR 1.10, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.57); the individual events of the composite outcome yielded similar findings. CONCLUSIONS: As socioeconomic factors, with health insurance as a proxy, could serve as determinants during the current pandemic, pre-emptive support is needed for high-risk groups to slow its spread.


Subject(s)
/statistics & numerical data , Healthcare Disparities/economics , Insurance, Health/statistics & numerical data , Pandemics , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Databases, Factual , Female , Humans , Insurance Claim Review , Male , Middle Aged , Republic of Korea/epidemiology , Retrospective Studies , Socioeconomic Factors , Young Adult
4.
J Prim Care Community Health ; 12: 2150132721996278, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1094016

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Many of the potential barriers to providing telehealth services already disproportionately impact vulnerable populations. The purpose of this study was to assess the incorporation of synchronous ophthalmology telemedicine visits in a tertiary university-based ophthalmology clinic for low-income and uninsured patients in the COVID-19 era. METHODS: The records of 18 patients who were due for an in-person visit in the medically underserved patient clinic at our institute were reviewed. Patients considered high risk of ocular morbidity progression were approved to proceed with an in-person visit. Patients with non-urgent visit indications were attempted to be contacted by telephone to be offered a telemedicine telephone visit as an alternative to a postponed in-person office visit. RESULTS: Clinical triage by an attending ophthalmologist determined that 17 patients (94.4%, n = 18) had visit indications appropriate for evaluation by telemedicine. Six patients (35.3%, n = 17) were successfully contacted and offered a telemedicine visit as an alternative to a postponed in-person office visit. All 6 patients accepted, scheduled, and completed a telemedicine visit. Eleven patients (64.7%, n = 17) were not able to be successfully contacted to offer and schedule either a telemedicine visit or a postponed in-person office visit. Patients who were not able to be successfully contacted were on average younger in age and more likely to be female, Hispanic/Latino, from Latin America, with a preferred language of Spanish. CONCLUSIONS: Synchronous ophthalmology telemedicine visits can be successfully incorporated in a tertiary university-based setting for low-income and uninsured patients. The primary barrier to providing telemedicine visits in this population was the ability to successfully contact patients to offer and schedule these visits.


Subject(s)
Ambulatory Care Facilities/organization & administration , Medically Underserved Area , Ophthalmology , Telemedicine/organization & administration , Academic Medical Centers , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Ohio/epidemiology , Retrospective Studies , Tertiary Care Centers
6.
Medicine (Baltimore) ; 100(7): e24668, 2021 Feb 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1091183

ABSTRACT

ABSTRACT: We aimed to retrospectively analyze the clinical and computed tomography (CT) characteristics of young adults with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia who were critically ill and to identify the features associated with non-survival.Thirty-eight COVID-19 patients (20-45 years old, 28 men) who had been admitted in the intensive care unit were included, including 18 non-survivors (group 1) and 20 survivors (group 2). Their clinical characteristics and initial and follow-up CT were compared between groups.In group 1, the days from illness onset to death were 21.1 ±â€Š10.3 days; 7 patients had underlying comorbidities. At admission, group 1 exhibited higher serum ferritin and interleukin-6 (IL-6) levels (1142.6 ±â€Š242.4 mg/L and 33.8 ±â€Š18.6 mmol/L) compared with group 2 (728.3 ±â€Š150.9 mg/L and 15.2 ±â€Š6.9 mmol/L, P < .01). Group 1 exhibited more rapidly progressive opacities and consolidation in follow-up CT (16.7 ±â€Š3.1 scores, 15.7 ±â€Š3.1 segments) than group 2 (11.4 ±â€Š4.0 scores, 10.3 ±â€Š4.6 segments, P < .01). The oxygenation index was lower (87.6 ±â€Š19.2 vs 99.1 ±â€Š20.4 mm Hg) and the mechanical ventilation duration was longer (14.7 ±â€Š6.9 vs 9.7 ±â€Š3.7 days) in group 1 compare with group 2 (P < .01).Compared with the survivors, the non-survivors showed higher serum ferritin and IL-6 levels, more rapidly progressive opacities in CT, lower oxygenation index, and longer mechanical ventilation durations. Special attention to ferritin/IL-6 levels and oxygenation index as well as early CT application and timely reexaminations are important to identify the individuals who may be at risk of becoming critically ill.


Subject(s)
/diagnosis , Pneumonia, Viral/diagnosis , Pneumonia, Viral/immunology , Pneumonia, Viral/mortality , Tomography, X-Ray Computed/methods , Adult , Critical Illness , Disease Progression , Female , Humans , Male , Pneumonia, Viral/virology , Retrospective Studies , Survival Analysis
7.
Medicine (Baltimore) ; 100(7): e24720, 2021 Feb 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1091182

ABSTRACT

ABSTRACT: The purpose of this study was to explore the management experience of outpatient with totally implantable central venous access Ports (TIVAPs, Ports) during the epidemic, including whether the extension of the irrigation interval will affect the incidence of catheter occlusion, the reasons for the port removal rate, and the corresponding protective treatment strategies during the COVID-19 epidemic.We retrospectively analyzed the Ports evaluation and flushing procedure data between February 3, 2020 and April 3, 2020; the cases were divided into the normal group and delayed group according to the critical point of the maintenance interval of 28 days (4 weeks). We compared the incidence of catheter obstruction between the 2 groups, analyzed the causes of catheter removal events in the 2 groups, and proposed corresponding protective treatment recommendations.During the period, 329 cases were included in the study. There was no significant difference in the incidence of catheter obstruction between the 2 groups. There were 15 patients with catheter removal, 8 cases of infection, 5 cases of catheter obstruction, and 1 case of an ectopic catheter, as well as 1 case of an overturned port. During the epidemic, no hospital infections related to the Ports flushing procedure occurred.The interval of Ports flushing procedures for patients without clinical symptoms can be appropriately extended during the COVID-19 epidemic. However, once the local infection symptoms or other sources of discomfort appear, Ports assessment needs to be performed as soon as possible. Take enhanced protected and isolation measures did not increase cross-infection during outpatient's flushing procedure at non-COVID-19-designated diagnosis and treatment hospitals.


Subject(s)
/epidemiology , Catheterization, Central Venous , Outpatients , Device Removal , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Retrospective Studies
8.
BMC Complement Med Ther ; 21(1): 70, 2021 Feb 19.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1090677

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Large-scale epidemics have changed people's medical behavior, and patients tend to delay non-urgent medical needs. However, the impact of the pandemic on the use of complementary and alternative medicine remains unknown. METHODS: This retrospective study aimed to analyze the changes in the number of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) patients and examine the epidemic prevention policy during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We analyzed the number of TCM patients in Taipei City Hospital from January 2017 to May 2020. We tallied the numbers of patients in each month and compared them with those in the same months last year. We calculated the percentage difference in the number of patients to reveal the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on TCM utilization. We used the Mann-Whitney U test to examine whether there was a significant difference in the number of patients during the COVID-19 pandemic. RESULTS: We included a total of 1,935,827 TCM visits of patients from January 2017 to May 2020 in this study. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of patients decreased significantly, except in February 2020. The number of patients during the COVID-19 pandemic had fallen by more than 15% compared with those in the same months last year. March and April had the greatest number of patient losses, with falls of 32.8 and 40% respectively. TCM patients declined significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic, and mobile medicine provided to rural areas fell considerably. Among all the TCM specialties, pediatrics and traumatology, as well as infertility treatment, witnessed the most significant decline in the number of patients. However, the number of cancer patients has reportedly increased. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic decreased the utilization rate of TCM, especially for mobile healthcare in rural areas. We suggest that the government pay attention to the medical disparity between urban and rural areas, which are affected by the pandemic, as well as allocate adequate resources in areas deprived of medical care.


Subject(s)
Ambulatory Care/statistics & numerical data , Medicine, Chinese Traditional/statistics & numerical data , /virology , Humans , Pandemics , Retrospective Studies , Taiwan/epidemiology
9.
Crit Care ; 25(1): 72, 2021 02 18.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1090630

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic is responsible for many hospitalizations in intensive care units (ICU), with widespread use of invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) which exposes patients to the risk of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP). The characteristics of VAP in COVID-19 patients remain unclear. METHODS: We retrospectively collected data on all patients hospitalized for COVID-19 during the first phase of the epidemic in one of the seven ICUs of the Pays-de-Loire region (North-West France) and who were on invasive mechanical ventilation for more than 48 h. We studied the characteristics of VAP in these patients. VAP was diagnosed based on official recommendations, and we included only cases of VAP that were confirmed by a quantitative microbiological culture. FINDINGS: We analyzed data from 188 patients. Of these patients, 48.9% had VAP and 19.7% experienced multiple episodes. Our study showed an incidence of 39.0 VAP per 1000 days of IMV (until the first VAP episode) and an incidence of 33.7 VAP per 1000 days of IMV (including all 141 episodes of VAP). Multi-microbial VAP accounted for 39.0% of all VAP, and 205 pathogens were identified. Enterobacteria accounted for 49.8% of all the isolated pathogens. Bacteremia was associated in 15 (10.6%) cases of VAP. Pneumonia was complicated by thoracic empyema in five cases (3.5%) and by pulmonary abscess in two cases (1.4%). Males were associated with a higher risk of VAP (sHR 2.24 CI95% [1.18; 4.26] p = 0.013). INTERPRETATION: Our study showed an unusually high incidence of VAP in patients admitted to the ICU for severe COVID-19, even though our services were not inundated during the first wave of the epidemic. We also noted a significant proportion of enterobacteria. VAP-associated complications (abscess, empyema) were not exceptional. REGISTRATION: As an observational study, this study has not been registered.


Subject(s)
/therapy , Pneumonia, Ventilator-Associated/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Ventilator-Associated/microbiology , Respiration, Artificial/adverse effects , Aged , Female , France/epidemiology , Hospitalization , Humans , Intensive Care Units , Male , Middle Aged , Retrospective Studies
10.
Mil Med Res ; 8(1): 13, 2021 02 16.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1088620

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Until January 18, 2021, coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) has infected more than 93 million individuals and has caused a certain degree of panic. Viral pneumonia caused by common viruses such as respiratory syncytial virus, rhinovirus, human metapneumovirus, human bocavirus, and parainfluenza viruses have been more common in children. However, the incidence of COVID-19 in children was significantly lower than that in adults. The purpose of this study was to describe the clinical manifestations, treatment and outcomes of COVID-19 in children compared with those of other sources of viral pneumonia diagnosed during the COVID-19 outbreak. METHODS: Children with COVID-19 and viral pneumonia admitted to 20 hospitals were enrolled in this retrospective multi-center cohort study. A total of 64 children with COVID-19 were defined as the COVID-19 cohort, of which 40 children who developed pneumonia were defined as the COVID-19 pneumonia cohort. Another 284 children with pneumonia caused by other viruses were defined as the viral pneumonia cohort. The epidemiologic, clinical, and laboratory findings were compared by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, t-test, Mann-Whitney U test and Contingency table method. Drug usage, immunotherapy, blood transfusion, and need for oxygen support were collected as the treatment indexes. Mortality, intensive care needs and symptomatic duration were collected as the outcome indicators. RESULTS: Compared with the viral pneumonia cohort, children in the COVID-19 cohort were mostly exposed to family members confirmed to have COVID-19 (53/64 vs. 23/284), were of older median age (6.3 vs. 3.2 years), and had a higher proportion of ground-glass opacity (GGO) on computed tomography (18/40 vs. 0/38, P < 0.001). Children in the COVID-19 pneumonia cohort had a lower proportion of severe cases (1/40 vs. 38/284, P = 0.048), and lower cases with high fever (3/40 vs. 167/284, P < 0.001), requiring intensive care (1/40 vs. 32/284, P < 0.047) and with shorter symptomatic duration (median 5 vs. 8 d, P < 0.001). The proportion of cases with evaluated inflammatory indicators, biochemical indicators related to organ or tissue damage, D-dimer and secondary bacterial infection were lower in the COVID-19 pneumonia cohort than those in the viral pneumonia cohort (P < 0.05). No statistical differences were found in the duration of positive PCR results from pharyngeal swabs in 25 children with COVID-19 who received antiviral drugs (lopinavir-ritonavir, ribavirin, and arbidol) as compared with duration in 39 children without antiviral therapy [median 10 vs. 9 d, P = 0.885]. CONCLUSION: The symptoms and severity of COVID-19 pneumonia in children were no more severe than those in children with other viral pneumonia. Lopinavir-ritonavir, ribavirin and arbidol do not shorten the duration of positive PCR results from pharyngeal swabs in children with COVID-19. During the COVID-19 outbreak, attention also must be given to children with infection by other pathogens infection.


Subject(s)
/epidemiology , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome/epidemiology , Adolescent , /therapy , Child , Child, Preschool , China/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Infant , Male , Pandemics , Retrospective Studies , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome/physiopathology , Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome/therapy , Severity of Illness Index
11.
Crit Care ; 25(1): 70, 2021 02 17.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1088611

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The early months of the COVID-19 pandemic were fraught with much uncertainty and some resource constraint. We assessed the change in survival to hospital discharge over time for intensive care unit patients with COVID-19 during the first 3 months of the pandemic and the presence of any surge effects on patient outcomes. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study using electronic medical record data for all patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 admitted to intensive care units from February 25, 2020, to May 15, 2020, at one of 26 hospitals within an integrated delivery system in the Western USA. Patient demographics, comorbidities, and severity of illness were measured along with medical therapies and hospital outcomes over time. Multivariable logistic regression models were constructed to assess temporal changes in survival to hospital discharge during the study period. RESULTS: Of 620 patients with COVID-19 admitted to the ICU [mean age 63.5 years (SD 15.7) and 69% male], 403 (65%) survived to hospital discharge and 217 (35%) died in the hospital. Survival to hospital discharge increased over time, from 60.0% in the first 2 weeks of the study period to 67.6% in the last 2 weeks. In a multivariable logistic regression analysis, the risk-adjusted odds of survival to hospital discharge increased over time (biweekly change, adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.22, 95% CI 1.04-1.40, P = 0.02). Additionally, an a priori-defined explanatory model showed that after adjusting for both hospital occupancy and percent hospital capacity by COVID-19-positive individuals and persons under investigation (PUI), the temporal trend in risk-adjusted patient survival to hospital discharge remained the same (biweekly change, aOR 1.18, 95% CI 1.00-1.38, P = 0.04). The presence of greater rates of COVID-19 positive/PUI as a percentage of hospital capacity was, however, significantly and inversely associated with survival to hospital discharge (aOR 0.95, 95% CI 0.92-0.98, P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: During the early COVID-19 pandemic, risk-adjusted survival to hospital discharge increased over time for critical care patients. An association was also seen between a greater COVID-19-positive/PUI percentage of hospital capacity and a lower survival rate to hospital discharge.


Subject(s)
/epidemiology , Pandemics , Patient Discharge/statistics & numerical data , Aged , Critical Care , Female , Hospital Mortality , Humans , Intensive Care Units , Male , Middle Aged , Retrospective Studies , Survival Analysis , United States/epidemiology
13.
J Transl Med ; 19(1): 79, 2021 02 17.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1088601

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The Sars-CoV-2 can cause severe pneumonia with multiorgan disease; thus, the identification of clinical and laboratory predictors of the progression towards severe and fatal forms of this illness is needed. Here, we retrospectively evaluated and integrated laboratory parameters of 45 elderly subjects from a long-term care facility with Sars-CoV-2 outbreak and spread, to identify potential common patterns of systemic response able to better stratify patients' clinical course and outcome. METHODS: Baseline white blood cells, granulocytes', lymphocytes', and platelets' counts, hemoglobin, total iron, ferritin, D-dimer, and interleukin-6 concentration were used to generate a principal component analysis. Statistical analysis was performed by using R statistical package version 4.0. RESULTS: We identified 3 laboratory patterns of response, renamed as low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk, strongly associated with patients' survival (p < 0.01). D-dimer, iron status, lymphocyte/monocyte count represented the main markers discriminating high- and low-risk groups. Patients belonging to the high-risk group presented a significantly longer time to ferritin decrease (p: 0.047). Iron-to-ferritin-ratio (IFR) significantly segregated recovered and dead patients in the intermediate-risk group (p: 0.012). CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that a combination of few laboratory parameters, i.e. iron status, D-dimer and lymphocyte/monocyte count at admission and during the hospital stay, can predict clinical progression in COVID-19.


Subject(s)
/diagnosis , Fibrin Fibrinogen Degradation Products/analysis , Iron/blood , Lymphocytes/pathology , Monocytes/pathology , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Biomarkers/blood , /mortality , Female , Fibrin Fibrinogen Degradation Products/metabolism , Humans , Leukocyte Count , Long-Term Care , Male , Middle Aged , Platelet Count , Prognosis , Retrospective Studies , Treatment Outcome
14.
BMJ Open ; 11(2): e043863, 2021 02 17.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1088259

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: We aim to assess the impact of temperature and relative humidity on the transmission of COVID-19 across communities after accounting for community-level factors such as demographics, socioeconomic status and human mobility status. DESIGN: A retrospective cross-sectional regression analysis via the Fama-MacBeth procedure is adopted. SETTING: We use the data for COVID-19 daily symptom-onset cases for 100 Chinese cities and COVID-19 daily confirmed cases for 1005 US counties. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 69 498 cases in China and 740 843 cases in the USA are used for calculating the effective reproductive numbers. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Regression analysis of the impact of temperature and relative humidity on the effective reproductive number (R value). RESULTS: Statistically significant negative correlations are found between temperature/relative humidity and the effective reproductive number (R value) in both China and the USA. CONCLUSIONS: Higher temperature and higher relative humidity potentially suppress the transmission of COVID-19. Specifically, an increase in temperature by 1°C is associated with a reduction in the R value of COVID-19 by 0.026 (95% CI (-0.0395 to -0.0125)) in China and by 0.020 (95% CI (-0.0311 to -0.0096)) in the USA; an increase in relative humidity by 1% is associated with a reduction in the R value by 0.0076 (95% CI (-0.0108 to -0.0045)) in China and by 0.0080 (95% CI (-0.0150 to -0.0010)) in the USA. Therefore, the potential impact of temperature/relative humidity on the effective reproductive number alone is not strong enough to stop the pandemic.


Subject(s)
/transmission , Humidity , Models, Theoretical , Temperature , China/epidemiology , Cities , Cross-Sectional Studies , Humans , Retrospective Studies , United States/epidemiology
15.
BMJ Open ; 11(2): e041726, 2021 02 17.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1088251

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Evidence about the impact of systematic nursing surveillance on risk of acute deterioration of patients with COVID-19 and the effects of care complexity factors on inpatient outcomes is scarce. The aim of this study was to determine the association between acute deterioration risk, care complexity factors and unfavourable outcomes in hospitalised patients with COVID-19. METHODS: A multicentre cohort study was conducted from 1 to 31 March 2020 at seven hospitals in Catalonia. All adult patients with COVID-19 admitted to hospitals and with a complete minimum data set were recruited retrospectively. Patients were classified based on the presence or absence of a composite unfavourable outcome (in-hospital mortality and adverse events). The main measures included risk of acute deterioration (as measured using the VIDA early warning system) and care complexity factors. All data were obtained blinded from electronic health records. Multivariate logistic analysis was performed to identify the VIDA score and complexity factors associated with unfavourable outcomes. RESULTS: Out of a total of 1176 patients with COVID-19, 506 (43%) experienced an unfavourable outcome during hospitalisation. The frequency of unfavourable outcomes rose with increasing risk of acute deterioration as measured by the VIDA score. Risk factors independently associated with unfavourable outcomes were chronic underlying disease (OR: 1.90, 95% CI 1.32 to 2.72; p<0.001), mental status impairment (OR: 2.31, 95% CI 1.45 to 23.66; p<0.001), length of hospital stay (OR: 1.16, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.21; p<0.001) and high risk of acute deterioration (OR: 4.32, 95% CI 2.83 to 6.60; p<0.001). High-tech hospital admission was a protective factor against unfavourable outcomes (OR: 0.57, 95% CI 0.36 to 0.89; p=0.01). CONCLUSION: The systematic nursing surveillance of the status and evolution of COVID-19 inpatients, including the careful monitoring of acute deterioration risk and care complexity factors, may help reduce deleterious health outcomes in COVID-19 inpatients.


Subject(s)
/physiopathology , Disease Progression , Acute Disease , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Female , Hospitalization , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Outcome Assessment, Health Care , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , Severity of Illness Index , Spain/epidemiology
16.
Medicine (Baltimore) ; 100(5): e24332, 2021 Feb 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1087854

ABSTRACT

ABSTRACT: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) becomes a global pandemic in 2020. Early identification of severe ill patients is a top priority for clinicians. We aimed to describe clinical features and risk factors of severe-critically ill patients with COVID-19 in Jiangsu Province.This multi-centered retrospective study collected the information of 631 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients hospitalized at 28 authorized hospitals in Jiangsu province from January 23, 2019 to March 13, 2020.A total of 583 adult patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 were enrolled for final analysis, including 84 severe-critically ill patients and 499 mild-moderate patients. Median age of the severe-critically ill patients was 57.0 years old (interquartile range, 49.0-65.8), and 50 (59.5%) were males. Multisystemic laboratory abnormalities were observed on admission for severe-critically ill patients. These patients showed more noticeable radiologic abnormalities and more coexisting health issues as compared to the mild-moderate patients. Most of the severe-critically ill COVID-19 patients became deteriorated in 2 weeks after diagnosis. Age, D-dimer, and lymphocytes were independently associated with the progression of severe-critically illness.Older age, higher D-dimer levels and less lymphocyte counts on admission are potential risk factors for COVID-19 patients to develop into severe and critically illness.


Subject(s)
Critical Illness/therapy , Fibrin Fibrinogen Degradation Products/analysis , Lymphocyte Count , Symptom Assessment/statistics & numerical data , Age Factors , /physiopathology , China/epidemiology , Disease Progression , Female , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Lymphocyte Count/methods , Lymphocyte Count/statistics & numerical data , Male , Middle Aged , Retrospective Studies , Risk Factors , /pathogenicity , Severity of Illness Index
17.
Medicine (Baltimore) ; 99(51): e23797, 2020 Dec 18.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1087850

ABSTRACT

ABSTRACT: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by SARS-CoV-2 had resulted in a global pandemic. A comprehensive analysis of pediatric COVID-19 cases is essential to decipher the natural features of children under the risk of this disease.In the epidemic period, all the children infected with SARS-CoV-2 in Wuxi, a city with a stable medical system during the COVID-19 outbreak in China, were enrolled for comprehensive data documenting their clinical, prognosis, follow-up, treatment and various tests results. Combing their family cluster characteristics, the epidemiological, hospitalization, and transmission features of children with SARS-CoV-2 were analyzed and discussed.A total of 7 children were enrolled, including 4 mild cases, 1 moderate case, and 2 asymptomatic cases. The common symptoms were fever and dry cough. The length of viral nucleic acid duration in nasopharynx varied and was irrelevant to the severity of the symptom, whether symptomatic or asymptomatic. Two cases showed viral nucleic acid positive recurrence after discharge from the hospital. A child with type 1 diabetes was also focused, for the elevated blood sugar during hospitalization. All these children had close contacts with their family members, some of those were confirmed COVID-19 cases.We provided a holistic and detailed portrayal of the pediatric COVID-19 cases in a typical city of timely response to the epidemic. While the family cluster exhibits the major transmission mode, attention should be paid for the potential risk since the expanded social space of children in future.


Subject(s)
/blood , /isolation & purification , Adolescent , Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use , Asymptomatic Infections , /drug therapy , Child , Child, Preschool , Female , Humans , Male , Radiography, Thoracic , Retrospective Studies , Tomography, X-Ray Computed
18.
Nat Commun ; 12(1): 1073, 2021 02 16.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1087443

ABSTRACT

As countries in Europe implement strategies to control the COVID-19 pandemic, different options are chosen regarding schools. Through a stochastic age-structured transmission model calibrated to the observed epidemic in Île-de-France in the first wave, we explored scenarios of partial, progressive, or full school reopening. Given the uncertainty on children's role, we found that reopening schools after lockdown may increase COVID-19 cases, yet protocols exist to keep the epidemic controlled. Under a scenario with stable epidemic activity if schools were closed, reopening pre-schools and primary schools would lead to up to 76% [67, 84]% occupation of ICU beds if no other school level reopened, or if middle and high schools reopened later. Immediately reopening all school levels may overwhelm the ICU system. Priority should be given to pre- and primary schools allowing younger children to resume learning and development, whereas full attendance in middle and high schools is not recommended for stable or increasing epidemic activity. Large-scale test and trace is required to keep the epidemic under control. Ex-post assessment shows that progressive reopening of schools, limited attendance, and strong adoption of preventive measures contributed to a decreasing epidemic after lifting the first lockdown.


Subject(s)
/epidemiology , Pandemics , Schools , /transmission , Child , Computer Simulation , France/epidemiology , Humans , Intensive Care Units , Models, Biological , Patient Admission , Retrospective Studies , /physiology
20.
Isr Med Assoc J ; 23(2): 71-75, 2021 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1085835

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) crisis has affected how hospitals work and has had an effect on orthopedic surgery. OBJECTIVES: To compare patient management and low-energy and high-energy trauma treatment at two orthopedic trauma units during the COVID-19 crisis and to clarify resource demands and preparedness in orthopedic clinics during the state of emergency caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: This retrospective study was conducted at two orthopedic trauma units from 14 March 2019 to 14 April 2019 and from 14 March 2020 to 14 April 2020. RESULTS: The proportion of patients admitted in the multi-trauma orthopedic unit decreased by one-third, the mean time interval from admission to surgery significantly decreased, and the number of surgeries and mean length of stay in hospital decreased in 2020 compared to the same test period in 2019. In the orthopedic trauma unit, the number of patients and surgeries also decreased. CONCLUSIONS: Our study highlights changes in orthopedic injury characteristics in two orthopedic units during the COVID-19 crisis in Latvia and compares these changes to data from the same time period one year earlier.


Subject(s)
Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Orthopedic Procedures/statistics & numerical data , Trauma Centers/statistics & numerical data , Wounds and Injuries/surgery , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Female , Humans , Latvia , Length of Stay/statistics & numerical data , Male , Middle Aged , Musculoskeletal System/injuries , Musculoskeletal System/surgery , Retrospective Studies , Time Factors , Young Adult
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