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Sci Rep ; 13(1): 3732, 2023 03 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2281275


In the absence of real-time surveillance data, it is difficult to derive an early warning system and potential outbreak locations with the existing epidemiological models, especially in resource-constrained countries. We proposed a contagion risk index (CR-Index)-based on publicly available national statistics-founded on communicable disease spreadability vectors. Utilizing the daily COVID-19 data (positive cases and deaths) from 2020 to 2022, we developed country-specific and sub-national CR-Index for South Asia (India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh) and identified potential infection hotspots-aiding policymakers with efficient mitigation planning. Across the study period, the week-by-week and fixed-effects regression estimates demonstrate a strong correlation between the proposed CR-Index and sub-national (district-level) COVID-19 statistics. We validated the CR-Index using machine learning methods by evaluating the out-of-sample predictive performance. Machine learning driven validation showed that the CR-Index can correctly predict districts with high incidents of COVID-19 cases and deaths more than 85% of the time. This proposed CR-Index is a simple, replicable, and easily interpretable tool that can help low-income countries prioritize resource mobilization to contain the disease spread and associated crisis management with global relevance and applicability. This index can also help to contain future pandemics (and epidemics) and manage their far-reaching adverse consequences.

COVID-19 , Humans , Asia, Southern , COVID-19/epidemiology , Machine Learning , Pandemics/prevention & control , Risk Management
Med Phys ; 50(5): 2683-2694, 2023 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2264095


BACKGROUND: Infectious disease outbreaks have always presented challenges to the operation of healthcare systems. In particular, the treatment of cancer patients within Radiation Oncology often cannot be delayed or compromised due to infection control measures. Therefore, there is a need for a strategic approach to simultaneously managing infection control and radiotherapy risks. PURPOSE: To develop a systematic risk management method that uses mathematical models to design mitigation efforts for control of an infectious disease outbreak, while ensuring safe delivery of radiotherapy. METHODS: A two-stage failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) approach is proposed to modify radiotherapy workflow during an infectious disease outbreak. In stage 1, an Infection Control FMEA (IC-FMEA) is conducted, where risks are evaluated based on environmental parameters, clinical interactions, and modeling of infection risk. occupancy risk index (ORI) is defined as a metric for infection transmission risk level in each room, based on the degree of occupancy. ORI, in combination with ventilation rate per person (Rp ), is used to provide a broad infection risk assessment of workspaces. For detailed IC-FMEA of clinical processes, infection control failure mode (ICFM) is defined to be any instance of disease transmission within the clinic. Infection risk priority number (IRPN) has been formulated as a function of time, distance, and degree of protective measures. Infection control measures are then systematically integrated into the workflow. Since the workflow is perturbed by infection control measures, there is a possibility of introducing new radiotherapy failure modes or increased likelihood of existing failure modes. Therefore, in stage 2, a conventional radiotherapy FMEA (RT-FMEA) should be performed on the adjusted workflow. RESULTS: The COVID-19 pandemic was used to illustrate stage 1 IC-FMEA. ORI and Rp values were calculated for various workspaces within a clinic. A deep inspiration breath hold (DIBH) CT simulation was used as an example to demonstrate detailed IC-FMEA with ICFM identification and IRPN evaluation. A total of 90 ICFMs were identified in the DIBH simulation process. The calculated IRPN values were found to be progressively decreasing for workflows with minimal, moderate, and enhanced levels of protective measures. CONCLUSION: The framework developed in this work provides tools for radiotherapy clinics to systematically assess risk and adjust workflows during the evolving circumstances of any infectious disease outbreak.

COVID-19 , Healthcare Failure Mode and Effect Analysis , Neoplasms , Radiation Oncology , Humans , Pandemics/prevention & control , Risk Management , Risk Assessment
Rev. enferm. UERJ ; 28: e55415, jan.-dez. 2020.
Article in English, Portuguese | WHO COVID, LILACS (Americas) | ID: covidwho-2203775


Objetivo: analisar o plano de contingência para infecção humana pelo Covid-19 e apresentar um modelo conceitual de gestão de risco para o Covid-19. Método: estudo de avaliação executiva, com análise seguindo os passos: Descrição da política; diagnóstico do problema; desenho da política; implementação; governança; resultados e impactos; que permitiu estabelecer o panorama geral acerca do Plano de Contingência Nacional para Infecção Humana pelo novo Coronavírus. Resultados: foram utilizados os passos metodológicos para apontar pontos positivos e fragilidades do plano de contingência e a construção de um modelo conceitual sobre a gestão de risco para o COVID-19. Conclusão: o cenário nacional enriquecido de condições socioambientais desfavoráveis, expõe o quão é vulnerável a nossa população e o sistema de saúde. Além disso, o estudo apontou para déficits de pessoal, materiais e preparação prévia para situações de risco como fatores a serem tratados dentro do processo de mitigação dos riscos.

Objective: to examine the contingency plan for human infection by Covid-19 and present a conceptual model of risk management for Covid-19. Method: in this executive evaluation study, the analysis followed the steps: policy description; problem diagnosis; policy design; implementation; governance; results and impacts; to establish an overall panorama of the National Human Infection Contingency Plan for the new Coronavirus. Results: the methodological steps were used to highlight the strengths and weaknesses of the contingency plan, and to construct a conceptual model of risk management for COVID-19. Conclusion: the scenario in Brazil, enhanced by unfavorable socio-environmental conditions, exposed how vulnerable its population and the health system are. The study also indicated that deficits in personnel, material and prior preparation for risk situations were factors to be addressed in the risk mitigation process.

Objetivo: examinar el plan de contingencia para la infección humana por Covid-19 y presentar un modelo conceptual de gestión de riesgos para Covid-19. Método: en este estudio de evaluación ejecutiva, el análisis siguió los pasos: descripción de la política; diagnóstico de problemas; diseño de políticas; implementación; gobernancia; resultados e impactos; Establecer un panorama general del Plan Nacional de Contingencia de Infección Humana por el nuevo Coronavirus. Resultados: los pasos metodológicos se utilizaron para resaltar las fortalezas y debilidades del plan de contingencia y para construir un modelo conceptual de gestión de riesgos para COVID-19. Conclusión: el escenario en Brasil, potenciado por condiciones socioambientales desfavorables, expuso la vulnerabilidad de su población y el sistema de salud. El estudio también indicó que los déficits en personal, material y preparación previa para situaciones de riesgo fueron factores a ser abordados en el proceso de mitigación de riesgos.

Risk Management/standards , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Contingency Plans , Pandemics , Betacoronavirus , Public Health Administration , Brazil
J. coloproctol. (Rio J., Impr.) ; 42(4): 327-334, Oct.-Dec. 2022. tab
Article in English | WHO COVID, LILACS (Americas) | ID: covidwho-2186467


The SARS-Cov-2 pandemic and its immediate public health impact has caused severe disruption of regular medical care provision. The morbimortality of other diseases continues to affect people regardless of the viral infection. Indeed, it would be reasonable to assume that they have been aggravated by the period of most restrictive public health measures that were adopted against the virus. Recovery and maintenance of healthcare provision is required despite the ongoing threat. Therefore, it is critical to resume services in a structured and safe way, otherwise greater harm could come to our patients and to ourselves. The present article proposes to be a broad guide to the recovery and maintenance of elective outpatient, surgical and lower endoscopic services, aiding the colorectal surgeon in identifying risks, assessing their multiple dimensions, and implementing risk management strategies in a pragmatic and efficacious way. (AU)

A pandemia de SARS-Cov-2 e suas imediatas consequências para a saúde coletiva causaram enormes restrições ao atendimento médico-hospitalar normal. A despeito disso, os riscos de morbimortalidade relacionados a outras doenças e agravos à saúde são incessantes. E é razoável de presumi-los como aumentados pela falta de atendimento regular no período restrições mais severas decorrentes das medidas sanitárias contra a epidemia. A retomada do atendimento é necessária, ainda que o vírus permaneça uma ameaça. Portanto, é crítico que esta seja feita de forma estruturada e segura, sob pena de causar mal adicional aos nossos pacientes e a nós mesmos. O presente artigo se propõe a servir como guia para a retomada e manutenção dos atendimentos eletivos ambulatorial, cirúrgico e endoscópico baixo, auxiliando o coloproctologista a identificar os riscos, avaliar a suas dimensões e implementar medidas de controle de forma pragmática e eficaz. (AU)

Elective Surgical Procedures , Colorectal Surgery , COVID-19 , Risk Management , Endoscopy , Waiting Rooms
Prehosp Disaster Med ; 37(6): 735-748, 2022 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2150926


INTRODUCTION: Health workforce development is essential for achieving the goals of an effective health system, as well as establishing national Health Emergency and Disaster Risk Management (Health EDRM). STUDY OBJECTIVE: The objective of this Delphi consensus study was to identify strategic recommendations for strengthening the workforce for Health EDRM in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) and high-income countries (HIC). METHODS: A total of 31 international experts were asked to rate the level of importance (one being strongly unimportant to seven being strongly important) for 46 statements that contain recommendations for strengthening the workforce for Health EDRM. The experts were divided into a LMIC group and an HIC group. There were three rounds of rating, and statements that did not reach consensus (SD ≥ 1.0) proceeded to the next round for further ranking. RESULTS: In total, 44 statements from the LMIC group and 34 statements from the HIC group attained consensus and achieved high mean scores for importance (higher than five out of seven). The components of the World Health Organization (WHO) Health EDRM Framework with the highest number of recommendations were "Human Resources" (n = 15), "Planning and Coordination" (n = 7), and "Community Capacities for Health EDRM" (n = 6) in the LMIC group. "Policies, Strategies, and Legislation" (n = 7) and "Human Resources" (n = 7) were the components with the most recommendations for the HIC group. CONCLUSION: The expert panel provided a comprehensive list of important and actionable strategic recommendations on workforce development for Health EDRM.

Disasters , Health Workforce , Humans , Delphi Technique , Risk Management , Consensus
Front Public Health ; 10: 1034196, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2119693


Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly impacted societies, influencing countries' Health Emergency and Disaster Risk Management (H-EDRM) systems. By taking Italy as a case study, this research aimed to investigate the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on the changes made to the existing H-EDRM system, with an emphasis on human resources, health service delivery, and logistics and the forward-looking strategies for the next health emergencies and disasters. Methods: We performed a retrospective observational case study using qualitative methodology. Data was collected via semi-structured interviews and analyzed considering the World Health Organization (WHO) H-EDRM framework. Multiple interviewees were selected to obtain a holistic perspective on the Italian response to COVID-19. Stakeholders from five different sectors (policy-making, hospital, primary care, third sector, lay community) from three of the most impacted Italian regions (Piemonte, Lombardia, and Veneto) were interviewed, for a total of 15 respondents. Results: Results on human resources revolved around the following main themes: personnel, training, occupational health, and multidisciplinary work; results on health service delivery encompassed the following main themes: public health, hospital, and primary care systems; results on logistics dealt with the following themes: infrastructures, supplies, transports, and communication channels. Lessons learned stressed on the importance of considering pragmatic disaster preparedness strategies and the need for cultural and structural reforms. Stakeholders mentioned several implications for the post-pandemic H-EDRM system in Italy. Conclusions: Findings highlight that the interconnection of sectors is key in overcoming pandemic-related challenges and for future disaster preparedness. The implications for the Italian H-EDRM system can inform advancements in disaster management in Italy and beyond.

COVID-19 , Disasters , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , Pandemics , Retrospective Studies , Risk Management , Italy/epidemiology
Int J Environ Res Public Health ; 19(22)2022 Nov 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2110079


BACKGROUND: During the outbreak of COVID-19, online public opinion related to the epidemic was rapidly generated and developed rapidly. If some online public opinions cannot be effectively responded to and guided, it will bring risks to social order. The government should understand how to use information on social media to grasp public demands, provide useful information in a timely manner and take countermeasures. Studying the formation mechanism of online public opinion during the outbreak can help the government make scientific decisions and improve risk management capabilities. METHODS: The research selects the public opinion information of online platforms represented by WeChat, online communities, Sina Weibo and search engines, involving 75 relevant texts (1 January to 31 March 2022). According to the grounded theory method, using the QSR NVivo12 qualitative research software, the collected network texts were successively researched using open coding, axial coding and theoretical coding. RESULTS: The structure of online public opinion during the COVID-19 epidemic was obtained. The operation mechanism of the online public opinion system about COVID-19 was mainly affected by the interaction of online public opinion objects, online public opinion subjects, online public opinion intermediaries and government forces. It was based on social facts and citizens' appeals as the starting point, subject behaviors and prevention and control measures as the focus, government's governance as macro-control and citizens' evaluation as the guide. CONCLUSIONS: Scientific analysis of online public opinion is an important tool to identify and manage risks and improve the quality of government activities. Online public opinion has the function of assisting government decision-making, and the government can identify the important information reflected in it, especially the mainstream public opinion, as a reference for decision-making. By taking effective measures and properly responding to citizens' reasonable demands, the government can prevent social risks and avoid new negative public opinions. Contributions: According to the characteristics of the basic model of online public opinion, this study provides risk mitigation suggestions for Chinese public sectors to use online public opinion, optimize epidemic prevention policies and formulate strategic measures.

COVID-19 , Public Opinion , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , Grounded Theory , China/epidemiology , Risk Management
J Occup Environ Med ; 64(11): 957-963, 2022 Nov 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2107633


OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between workplace COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) risk management and eldercare workers' perception of their social environment at work. METHODS: Cross-sectional questionnaire data from 952 participants were collected by the Danish labor union, FOA, and analyzed using multinomial logistic regression. RESULTS: Unclear guidelines, insecurity regarding organization of work, lack of attention to vulnerable employees, and lack of instruction in the use of personal protective equipment were associated with perceived negative changes in the social environment at work. Also, higher local incidence rates of SARS-CoV-2 infections were associated with a weaker sense of community (odds ratio, 1.18; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.36). CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate that risk management is important not only for prevention of infection but also for individual and workplace resilience toward external demands and health threats.

COVID-19 , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , Workplace , SARS-CoV-2 , Cross-Sectional Studies , Risk Management
Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol ; 42(1): 75-83, 2021 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2096434


BACKGROUND: Shortages of personal protective equipment during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic have led to the extended use or reuse of single-use respirators and surgical masks by frontline healthcare workers. The evidence base underpinning such practices warrants examination. OBJECTIVES: To synthesize current guidance and systematic review evidence on extended use, reuse, or reprocessing of single-use surgical masks or filtering face-piece respirators. DATA SOURCES: We used the World Health Organization, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and Public Health England websites to identify guidance. We used Medline, PubMed, Epistemonikos, Cochrane Database, and preprint servers for systematic reviews. METHODS: Two reviewers conducted screening and data extraction. The quality of included systematic reviews was appraised using AMSTAR-2. Findings were narratively synthesized. RESULTS: In total, 6 guidance documents were identified. Levels of detail and consistency across documents varied. They included 4 high-quality systematic reviews: 3 focused on reprocessing (decontamination) of N95 respirators and 1 focused on reprocessing of surgical masks. Vaporized hydrogen peroxide and ultraviolet germicidal irradiation were highlighted as the most promising reprocessing methods, but evidence on the relative efficacy and safety of different methods was limited. We found no well-established methods for reprocessing respirators at scale. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence on the impact of extended use and reuse of surgical masks and respirators is limited, and gaps and inconsistencies exist in current guidance. Where extended use or reuse is being practiced, healthcare organizations should ensure that policies and systems are in place to ensure these practices are carried out safely and in line with available guidance.

COVID-19 , Equipment Reuse/standards , Infection Control/instrumentation , Masks/virology , N95 Respirators/virology , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Humans , Infection Control/methods , Practice Guidelines as Topic , Risk Management/methods , Risk Management/standards
J Sport Health Sci ; 11(5): 545-547, 2022 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2061594
Ginebra; Organización Mundial de la Salud; 2022. (WHO/2019-nCoV/Policy_Brief/Infodemic/2022.1).
in Spanish | WHOIRIS | ID: gwh-363114