Tuberculosis in the Russian Federation: Prognosis and Epidemiological Models in a Situation After the COVID-19 Pandemic.

AIM: Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, many support programs for tuberculosis (TB) patients have been discontinued and TB mass screening activities decreased worldwide, resulting in a decrease in new case detection and an increase in TB deaths (WHO, WHO global lists of high burden countries for TB, multidrug/rifampicin-resistant TB (MDR/RR-TB) and TB/HIV, 2021-2025, 2021). The study aimed to assess changes in epidemiological indicators of tuberculosis in the Russian Federation and to simulate these indicators in the post-COVID-19 period. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The main epidemiological indicators of tuberculosis were analyzed with the use of government statistical data for the period from 2009 to 2021. Further mathematical modeling of epidemiological indicators for the coming years was carried out, taking into account the TB screening by chest X-ray. Statistical analysis was carried out using the software environment R (v.3.5.1) for statistical computing and the commercial software Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS Statistics for Windows, version 24.0, IBM Corp., 2016). Time series forecasting was performed using the programming language for statistical calculations R, version 4.1.2 and the bsts package, version 0.9.8. STUDY RESULTS: The study has found that the mean regression coefficient of a single predictor differs in the model for TB incidence and mortality (0.0098 and 0.0002, respectively). Forecast of overall incidence, the incidence of children and the forecast for mortality using the basic scenario (screening 75-78%) for the period from 2022 to 2026 was characterized by a mean decrease rate of 23.1%, 15.6% and 6.0% per year, respectively. A conservative scenario (screening 47-63%) of overall incidence indicates that the incidence of children and the forecast for mortality will continue to decrease with a mean decrease rate of 23.2%, 15.6% and 6.0% per year, respectively. Comparable data were obtained from the forecast of overall incidence, the incidence of children and the forecast for mortality using the optimistic scenario (screening 82-89%) with a mean decrease rate of 22.9%, 15.4% and 6.0% per year, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: It has been proven that the significance of screening with chest X-ray as a predictor of mortality is minimal. However, TB screening at least 60% of the population (chest X-ray in adults and immunological tests in children) have provided relationship between the TB screening rate and TB mortality rate (TB mortality rate increases with an increase in the population coverage and, conversely, decreases with a decrease in the population coverage).

Myopic axial elongation in school children and the COVID-19 lockdown in Russia: The Ural Children Myopia Study.

BACKGROUND: To explore an influence of the COVID-19-related lockdown on ocular axial elongation in school children in Russia. METHODS: The participants of the school-based Ufa Children Myopia Study in Ufa/Russia underwent, at baseline in 2019/2020 before the COVID-19 outbreak and after a COVID-19-related lockdown, a detailed interview and ophthalmological examination including laser interferometric biometry for axial length measurement. RESULTS: The study included 461 children (age:10.7±2.1 years;range:6.8-16.9 years). The mean follow-up was 1.41±0.33 years. Mean axial length at baseline was 23.96±0.95mm and 23.94±0.95mm in the right and left eyes, respectively. During the study period, annual axial elongation (right/left eyes) was 0.19±0.17mm/0.19±0.22mm. Before the COVID-19 lockdown, the age-dependent coefficient for axial length (ADCAL) for the right/left eyes was 0.21mm (95%CI:0.17,0.25)/0.20mm (95%CI:0.16,0.24). In children younger than 9.6 years (n = 157), annual axial elongation (right eyes) during the study period was larger than the ADCAL before the COVID-19 outbreak (0.29 mm (95%:0.00,0.66) versus 0.21 mm (95%CI:0.02,0.41)). In the groups aged 9.6 to 11.4 years (n = 148) and aged >11.4 years (n = 156), annual axial elongation during the study period was comparable to the ADCAL before the COVID-19 outbreak (0.18mm (95%CI:-0.07,0.46) versus 0.22mm (95%CI:-0.05,0.48), and (0.09mm (95%CI:-0.15,0.34) versus 0.14mm (95%CI:0.00,0.28), respectively). In children aged ≤9 years at study end, axial length at study end was 0.20 mm larger than axial length at baseline in the participants aged ≤9 years at baseline. Larger axial elongation during the study period was associated (multivariable analysis) with younger age (beta:-0.62;P<0.001), female sex (beta:0.21;P<0.001), longer study period (beta:0.22;P<0.001), and longer axial length at baseline (beta:0.28;P<0.001), and marginally, with less time spent outdoors (beta:-0.07;P = 0.06). CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19-related lockdown in the Russian city of Ufa was associated with a relatively minor increase in axial elongation, detected only in children aged <9.6 years.

Comparing Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) strains in convalescent COVID-19 patients.

Aim: We previously published results of the BATTLE trial, showing that patients recently infected with SARS-CoV-2 can benefit from receiving Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) with minimal adverse effects. The study incorporated two strains of this vaccine. In this study, patient outcomes were compared based on the strain of BCG because different strains have been shown to have different immunogenicity. Methods: BATTLE was a double-blind controlled trial of COVID-19 convalescent patients; symptom progression, injection-site lesion characteristics and adverse effects were compared between recipients of placebo, Russian BCG strain or Brazilian BCG strains. Results: There was no statistically significant difference between the two BCG strains in terms of symptom progression, lesion-size or type. Conclusion: The two strains have similar clinical outcomes in COVID-19 convalescent patients.

We previously published results of the BATTLE trial, showing that patients recently infected with SARS-CoV-2 virus can benefit from receiving BCG with minimal adverse effects. This article shows that the two BCG strains, Russian and Brazilian, have similar clinical outcomes in COVID-19 convalescent patients.

Dynamics of Regional Mortality Rates From Cardiac Causes in Russia 2019-2020.

Aim      To analyze the dynamics of standardized mortality ratios (SMR) (2019-2020) for the cardiological causes indicated as the primary (original) cause of death, in regions of the Russian Federation, based on the RF State Statistics Service Brief Nomenclature of Causes of Death (RFSSS BNCD). Reports have indicated substantial changes in the indexes and structure of mortality since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in many countries.Material and methods  RFSSS data on numbers of deaths were analyzed according to BNCD and mid-year population in single year of age groups in 2019 and 2020. SMRs were determined for 23 cardiological causes of death listed in the BNSD in a separate line; the average regional SMR value and the standard deviation were provided; and SMRs were compared both among 4 groups (with a previously described method) and by 23 RFSSS BNCD causes using the Wilcoxon test.Results In 2020 vs. 2019, the mean regional SMR for cardiological causes increased by 12.07±9.86 % (from 301.02±77.67 to 336.15±84.5 %; р<0.0001). Decreases in SMR were found in 9 of 82 regions; however, only in two of them (the Republic of Ingushetia and the Sakhalin Region), SMR was decreased for all 4 groups of causes. In both 2019 and 2020 (60.9±13.8 and 62.5±12.8 %, respectively), the highest proportion of deaths was related with the 1st group of causes (chronic ischemic heart disease, IHD), with an increase in SMR of 18.66±33.28 % (р<0.0001). Increases in SMR were found in 75 regions while in the other regions, decreases in SMRs were observed. For the 2nd group of causes (myocardial infarction, other acute forms of IHD, sudden cardiac death), the mean regional SMR increased in 2020 by 3.2±18.1 % (р=0.3). Increased SMRs were noted in 54 regions. The proportion of the 2nd group in cardiological mortality was 17.3±9.7 % in 2019 and 16.1±9.6 % in 2020. The mean regional SNR for the 3rd group of causes (heart defects, myocardial diseases, etc.) increased in 2020 by 11.6±23.1 % (р=0.006). The mean regional proportion of causes for this group did not significantly changed compared to 2019 (17.5±8.2 and 17.1±7.3 %, respectively); however, the contribution of this group was greater than the contribution of the 2nd group. Increases in SMR were observed in 65 regions, while the contribution of causes related with arterial hypertension did not significantly change. Significant mid-regional differences in SMR values, dynamics of SMRs for different causes, and increases in the coefficient of variation were noted for almost all causes of death. Significant differences between 2019 and 2020 were found for 3 of 23 causes: other forms of chronic IHD (decreased SMRs in 15 regions and increased SMRs in the others), atherosclerotic heart disease (decreased SMRs in 38 regions), and alcoholic cardiomyopathy (decreased SMRs in 28 regions).Conclusion      During the COVID-19 pandemic, the SMR for cardiological causes was increased. Considerable regional differences in values and dynamics of SMR for individual causes call for attention to the unification of the criteria for clinical diagnosis.

Forecasting Trends in the Tuberculosis Epidemic Situation in the Region of the Russian Federation by Dynamic Simulation Model.

The spread of a new coronavirus infection in the last two years together with HIV infection preserves and even increases the potential for the spread of tuberculosis in the world. Sverdlovsk oblast (SO) of Russian Federation is the region with high levels of HIV and tuberculosis (TB). The search for new methods of forecasting of the future epidemic situation for tuberculosis has become particularly relevant. The aim was to develop an effective method for predicting the epidemic situation of tuberculosis using an artificial intelligence (AI) method in the format of a dynamic simulation model based on AI technologies. Statistical data was loaded from the state statistical reporting on TB patients for the period 2007-2017. The parameters were controlled through a system of inequalities. The proposed SDM made it possible to identify and reliably calculate trends of TB epidemiological indicators. Comparison of the predicted values made in 2017 with the actual values of 2018-2021 revealed a reliable coincidence of the trend of movement of TB epidemiological indicators in the region, the maximum deviation was no more than 14.82%. The forecast results obtained with SDM are quite suitable for practical use. Especially, in operational resource planning of measures to counteract the spread of tuberculosis at the regional level.

COVID-19 and excess mortality in Russia: Regional estimates of life expectancy losses in 2020 and excess deaths in 2021.

Accurately counting the human cost of the COVID-19 at both the national and regional level is a policy priority. The Russian Federation currently reports one of the higher COVID-19 mortality rates in the world; but estimates of mortality differ significantly. Using a statistical method accounting for changes in the population age structure, we present the first national and regional estimates of excess mortality for 2021; calculations of excess mortality by age, gender, and urban/rural status for 2020; and mean remaining years of life expectancy lost at the regional level. We estimate that there were 351,158 excess deaths in 2020 and 678,022 in 2021 in the Russian Federation; and, in 2020, around 2.0 years of life expectancy lost. While the Russian Federation exhibits very high levels of excess mortality compared to other countries, there is a wide degree of regional variation: in 2021, excess deaths expressed as a percentage of expected deaths at the regional level range from 27% to 52%. Life expectancy loss is generally greater for males; while excess mortality is greater in urban areas. For Russia as whole, an average person who died due to the pandemic in 2020 would have otherwise lived for a further 14 more years (and as high as 18 years in some regions), disproving the widely held view that excess mortality during the pandemic period was concentrated among those with few years of life remaining-especially for females. At a regional level, less densely populated, more remote regions, rural regions appear to have fared better regarding excess mortality and life expectancy loss-however, a part of this differential could be owing to measurement issues. The calculations demonstrate more clearly the true degree of the human cost of the pandemic in the Russian Federation.

Educational video for training specialists in clinical laboratory diagnostics.

The adaptation of educational programs under restrictions during the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic and after it is based not only on the widespread use of video lectures, but also on the introduction of a number of new educational technologies. Hybrid learning will become the cornerstone of future educational technologies in clinical laboratory diagnostics and will contribute to the creation of virtual practical classes with examples of analysis of laboratory testing results based on case histories (Case Technologies). The key aspect in the implementation of video cases into the educational process is the development of video materials. The use of educational video cases developed by Vector-Best in the process of training specialists in clinical laboratory diagnostics during the cycles «Retraining¼ and «General Improvement¼ at the Department of Clinical Laboratory Diagnostics of the Saratov State Medical University named after V. I. Razumovsky of the Ministry of Health of Russia was a convenient format and received positive assessment of cadets. Currently, the «IVD gallery¼ section has appeared on the FLM website and the placement of an additional educational resource - a library of educational video cases.

The development of organization of population medical care in conditions of digitization of public health.

The article discusses two main problems of organizing medical care in national health care of Russia: medical and social monitoring of morbidity and mortality; key performance indices of public health in the Russian Federation. Methodologically, the article is based on interdisciplinary scientific approach that allows to study medical, social and economic components of public health, considering observed trends: digitalization of health care and epidemic of new coronavirus infection. Based on statistical analysis of open data on morbidity and mortality of population in the Russian Federation over past few years, results were obtained indicating that collection of medical statistics is not built consistently that medical care in health care is not organized sequentially as cycle or process, but is presented in fragments. This leads to the fact that rural population has very limited access to multidisciplinary and high-tech medical services, and in structure of mortality there is high gender bias (males die more often than females in same classes of causes). Based on identified problems, two organizing solutions are proposed. The first solution is to create, on the basis of the Ministry of Health Care of Russia, special portal for complete, reliable and up-to-date medical statistics, which will be generated and processed using Big Data technologies. The second solution consists in transition from fragmentation to systematic organization of medical care in the "education and prevention-treatment-rehabilitation" continuum, while for each stage special set of key performance indices is established that allows to solve the tasks of improving public health, but also to develop harmonized social and economic public policy.

Spread of endemic SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Russia before April 2021.

In 2021, the COVID-19 pandemic was characterized by global spread of several lineages with evidence for increased transmissibility. Throughout the pandemic, Russia has remained among the countries with the highest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, making it a potential hotspot for emergence of novel variants. Here, we show that among the globally significant variants of concern that have spread globally by late 2020, alpha (B.1.1.7), beta (B.1.351) or gamma (P.1), none have been sampled in Russia before the end of 2020. Instead, between summer 2020 and spring 2021, the epidemic in Russia has been characterized by the spread of two lineages that were rare in most other countries: B.1.1.317 and a sublineage of B.1.1 including B.1.1.397 (hereafter, B.1.1.397+). Their frequency has increased concordantly in different parts of Russia. On top of these lineages, in late December 2020, alpha (B.1.1.7) emerged in Russia, reaching a frequency of 17.4% (95% C.I.: 12.0%-24.4%) in March 2021. Additionally, we identify three novel distinct lineages, AT.1, B.1.1.524 and B.1.1.525, that have started to spread, together reaching the frequency of 11.8% (95% C.I.: 7.5%-18.1%) in March 2021. These lineages carry combinations of several notable mutations, including the S:E484K mutation of concern, deletions at a recurrent deletion region of the spike glycoprotein (S:Δ140-142, S:Δ144 or S:Δ136-144), and nsp6:Δ106-108 (also known as ORF1a:Δ3675-3677). Community-based PCR testing indicates that these variants have continued to spread in April 2021, with the frequency of B.1.1.7 reaching 21.7% (95% C.I.: 12.3%-35.6%), and the joint frequency of B.1.1.524 and B.1.1.525, 15.2% (95% C.I.: 7.6%-28.2%). Although these variants have been displaced by the onset of delta variant in May-June 2021, lineages B.1.1.317, B.1.1.397+, AT.1, B.1.1.524 and B.1.1.525 and the combinations of mutations comprising them that are found in other lineages merit monitoring.

The COVID-19 Vaccination program and barriers of vaccination: а Review and comparison. Evidence from Iran and Russia.

The vaccination is a global issue of controlling infection agents and non-infectious diseases that require modern technologies and scientific knowledge. During the COVID-19 pandemic the work is continuously implemented to control the situation. The vaccination can affects controlling outbreaks all around the world. Besides, applying several types of vaccines in various countries to control second peak of the pandemic can be considered as significant factor that positively impacts host immune response. However, there are different barriers to vaccination programs worldwide in areas of economy, technology, politics, demography, psychology, especially in countries with low economic level. Although vaccination program started in many countries, developing mass immunity in society is essential for pandemic termination. Iran and Russia also are involved in COVID-19 pandemic disease since January 2020, and they are still working to achieve mass immunity. The actual study was carried out to compare vaccination extent between Russia and Iran countries to evaluate vaccination impact on the COVID-19 pandemic and to review some main factors that influence vaccination to understand main barriers of vaccination in both countries.

European Countries Step-up Humanitarian and Medical Assistance to Ukraine as the Conflict Continues.

On the 24th of February 2022, the Russian Federation began an unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, marking the biggest military attack in Europe since the second world war. Over 4 million people have fled their homeland within the first month of the war and have triggered a large refugee crisis with impacts far beyond the Ukrainian border. People in the neighboring countries have shown tremendous support by stepping forward to donate food, clothes, medications, money, and other essential supplies. The governments and other regional stakeholders have also been supportive in accommodating and easing regulations for the incoming refugees. Herein, we summarize the humanitarian measures and medical donations that have been made by European countries as they stepped up their efforts to provide refugees with all necessary basic services. We further highlight potential oncoming challenges in Ukraine and the host countries along with relevant solutions to these challenges. The current scenario highlights the need for multi-party and multi-level collaborations (both public and private) to tackle the emerging situation.

LEGAL REGULATION OF EPIDEMIC SECURITY UNDER THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC CONDITIONS IN SOME POST-SOVIET COUNTRIES AND POLAND.

OBJECTIVE: The aim: To reveal the features of the epidemic safety and security legal regulation in Belarus, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Poland, Russia and Ukraine during the COVID-19 pandemic. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Materials and methods: This study is based on Belarusian, Kazakh, Moldavian, Polish, Russian and Ukrainian regulatory acts as well as national court judgments. Such methods as dialectical, comparative, analytic, synthetic, comprehensive, statistical and generalization approaches have been used in the article. CONCLUSION: Conclusions: the study confirmed that the direct impact on the spread and dynamics of morbidity during the COVID-19 pandemic in the countries to be analyzed is determined by: the presence of government agencies and special institutions involved in combating, preventing and monitoring the spread of infectious diseases and their readiness for effective measures in emergency situations caused, in particular, by epidemics; timeliness and duration of quarantine restrictions, their severity and scope; observance of these restrictions by the population; effectiveness of law enforcement responses to violations. The strengthening of administrative and/or criminal liability had no significant impact on the morbidity situation in the country.

Psychological Distress and Post-Traumatic Symptomatology Among Dental Healthcare Workers in Russia: Results of a Pilot Study.

The spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection has increased the risk of mental health problems, including post-traumatic stress disorders (PTSD), and healthcare workers (HCWs) are at greater risk than other occupational groups. This observational cross-sectional study aimed to explore the symptoms of depression, anxiety, and PTSD among dental HCWs in Russia during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The survey was carried out among 128 dental HCWs from three dental clinics of Ekaterinburg, Russia. The mean age of the sample was 38.6 years. Depression, anxiety, and stress were assessed using the Depression Anxiety and Stress Scale-21 (DASS-21); PTSD was assessed using the PTSD Symptom Scale-Self-Report (PSS-SR); subjective distress was assessed using the Impact of Event Scale-Revised (IES-R). The results indicated that 20.3-24.2% HCWs had mild to extremely severe symptoms of psychological distress, and 7.1-29.7% had clinical symptoms of PTSD. No differences between females and males were revealed. HCWs working directly with patients had significantly higher levels of PTSD symptoms and the risk of PTSD development compared to those working indirectly, whereas older HCWs had significantly higher levels of both psychological distress and PTSD symptoms compared to younger HCWs. Thus, dental HCWs are at high risk for psychological distress and PTSD symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Surveillance Metrics of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in Central Asia: Longitudinal Trend Analysis.

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2, the virus that caused the global COVID-19 pandemic, has severely impacted Central Asia; in spring 2020, high numbers of cases and deaths were reported in this region. The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic is currently breaching the borders of Central Asia. Public health surveillance is necessary to inform policy and guide leaders; however, existing surveillance explains past transmissions while obscuring shifts in the pandemic, increases in infection rates, and the persistence of the transmission of COVID-19. OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study is to provide enhanced surveillance metrics for SARS-CoV-2 transmission that account for weekly shifts in the pandemic, including speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence, to better understand the risk of explosive growth in each country and which countries are managing the pandemic successfully. METHODS: Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 60 days of COVID-19-related data from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in the Central Asia region as a function of the prior number of cases, level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R. RESULTS: COVID-19 transmission rates were tracked for the weeks of September 30 to October 6 and October 7-13, 2020, in Central Asia. The region averaged 11,730 new cases per day for the first week and 14,514 for the second week. Infection rates increased across the region from 4.74 per 100,000 persons to 5.66. Russia and Turkey had the highest 7-day moving averages in the region, with 9836 and 1469, respectively, for the week of October 6 and 12,501 and 1603, respectively, for the week of October 13. Russia has the fourth highest speed in the region and continues to have positive acceleration, driving the negative trend for the entire region as the largest country by population. Armenia is experiencing explosive growth of COVID-19; its infection rate of 13.73 for the week of October 6 quickly jumped to 25.19, the highest in the region, the following week. The region overall is experiencing increases in its 7-day moving average of new cases, infection, rate, and speed, with continued positive acceleration and no sign of a reversal in sight. CONCLUSIONS: The rapidly evolving COVID-19 pandemic requires novel dynamic surveillance metrics in addition to static metrics to effectively analyze the pandemic trajectory and control spread. Policy makers need to know the magnitude of transmission rates, how quickly they are accelerating, and how previous cases are impacting current caseload due to a lag effect. These metrics applied to Central Asia suggest that the region is trending negatively, primarily due to minimal restrictions in Russia.