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1.
Epidemiol Psychiatr Sci ; 29: e173, 2020 Sep 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2016492

ABSTRACT

AIMS: The United Nations warned of COVID-19-related mental health crisis; however, it is unknown whether there is an increase in the prevalence of mental disorders as existing studies lack a reliable baseline analysis or they did not use a diagnostic measure. We aimed to analyse trends in the prevalence of mental disorders prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: We analysed data from repeated cross-sectional surveys on a representative sample of non-institutionalised Czech adults (18+ years) from both November 2017 (n = 3306; 54% females) and May 2020 (n = 3021; 52% females). We used Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI) as the main screening instrument. We calculated descriptive statistics and compared the prevalence of current mood and anxiety disorders, suicide risk and alcohol-related disorders at baseline and right after the first peak of COVID-19 when related lockdown was still in place in CZ. In addition, using logistic regression, we assessed the association between COVID-19-related worries and the presence of mental disorders. RESULTS: The prevalence of those experiencing symptoms of at least one current mental disorder rose from a baseline of 20.02 (95% CI = 18.64; 21.39) in 2017 to 29.63 (95% CI = 27.9; 31.37) in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. The prevalence of both major depressive disorder (3.96, 95% CI = 3.28; 4.62 v. 11.77, 95% CI = 10.56; 12.99); and suicide risk (3.88, 95% CI = 3.21; 4.52 v. 11.88, 95% CI = 10.64; 13.07) tripled and current anxiety disorders almost doubled (7.79, 95% CI = 6.87; 8.7 v. 12.84, 95% CI = 11.6; 14.05). The prevalence of alcohol use disorders in 2020 was approximately the same as in 2017 (10.84, 95% CI = 9.78; 11.89 v. 9.88, 95% CI = 8.74; 10.98); however, there was a significant increase in weekly binge drinking behaviours (4.07% v. 6.39%). Strong worries about both, health or economic consequences of COVID-19, were associated with an increased odds of having a mental disorder (1.63, 95% CI = 1.4; 1.89 and 1.42, 95% CI = 1.23; 1.63 respectively). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence matching concerns that COVID-19-related mental health problems pose a major threat to populations, particularly considering the barriers in service provision posed during lockdown. This finding emphasises an urgent need to scale up mental health promotion and prevention globally.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/psychology , Mental Disorders/epidemiology , Mental Health/statistics & numerical data , Pneumonia, Viral/psychology , Adult , Alcohol-Related Disorders/epidemiology , Alcohol-Related Disorders/etiology , Anxiety Disorders/epidemiology , Anxiety Disorders/etiology , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Cross-Sectional Studies , Czech Republic/epidemiology , Depressive Disorder, Major/epidemiology , Depressive Disorder, Major/etiology , Female , Humans , Male , Mental Disorders/etiology , Middle Aged , Mood Disorders/epidemiology , Mood Disorders/etiology , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Prevalence , Psychiatric Status Rating Scales , SARS-CoV-2 , Suicide/statistics & numerical data , Surveys and Questionnaires
3.
BMC Psychol ; 10(1): 158, 2022 Jun 21.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1896384

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: There is concern that the COVID-19 pandemic has had a negative impact on the psychological wellbeing of many populations, including increase of fear, anxiety, and uncertainty. Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, adolescents specifically have experienced direct and indirect impacts on their mentally, resulting in severe depression, self-harm and suicide. This study aimed to identify factors influencing suicidal tendencies and the mental health status of multicultural adolescents in Korea during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: This cross-sectional study was conducted with 784 multicultural adolescents (Korean fathers and foreign mothers) who participated in the 16th national Korean Youth Risk Behaviour online survey. Research variables were measured using self-reported questionnaires for mental health and suicidal tendencies. Data was analysed using SPSS 26.0 program. RESULTS: The factors influencing suicidal tendencies (contemplating suicide, suicidal plans, and suicide attempts) were sexual intercourse experience (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 7.67, 5.04, 7.10), depressive mood (aOR 1.03, 0.98, 0.97, 0.90), and unhappiness (aOR 13.00, 7.28, 5.56). CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, the factors that affect suicidal tendencies showed sexual intercourse experience, depressive mood and unhappiness. Screening for suicidal tendencies and suicide prevention programs that consider the significant factors that affect suicidal tendencies should be developed for multicultural adolescents. School health professions and mental health counselors at schools need to emphasize the mental health and psychosocial support needs of senior high school students.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Suicide/statistics & numerical data , Adolescent , COVID-19/epidemiology , Cross-Sectional Studies , Cultural Diversity , Female , Humans , Pandemics , Prevalence , Republic of Korea/epidemiology , Risk Factors , Suicidal Ideation
4.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep ; 71(8): 306-312, 2022 Feb 25.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1707039

ABSTRACT

Suicide was among the 10 leading causes of death in the United States in 2020 among persons aged 10-64 years, and the second leading cause of death among children and adolescents aged 10-14 and adults aged 25-34 years (1). During 1999-2020, nearly 840,000 lives were lost to suicide in the United States. During that period, the overall suicide rate peaked in 2018 and declined in 2019 and 2020 (1). Despite the recent decline in the suicide rate, factors such as social isolation, economic decline, family stressors, new or worsening mental health symptoms, and disruptions to work and school associated with the COVID-19 pandemic have raised concerns about suicide risk in the United States. During 2020, a total of 12.2 million U.S. adults reported serious thoughts of suicide and 1.2 million attempted suicide (2). To understand how changes in suicide death rates might have varied among subpopulations, CDC analyzed counts and age-adjusted suicide rates during 2019 and 2020 by demographic characteristics, mechanism of injury, county urbanization level, and state. From 2019 to 2020, the suicide rate declined by 3% overall, including 8% among females and 2% among males. Significant declines occurred in seven states but remained stable in the other states and the District of Columbia. Despite two consecutive years of declines, the overall suicide rate remains 30% higher compared with that in 2000 (1). A comprehensive approach to suicide prevention that uses data driven decision-making and implements prevention strategies with the best available evidence, especially among disproportionately affected populations (3), is critical to realizing further declines in suicide and reaching the national goal of reducing the suicide rate by 20% by 2025 (4).


Subject(s)
Suicide/statistics & numerical data , Suicide/trends , Adolescent , Adult , Age Distribution , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Child , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Population Surveillance , Sex Distribution , United States/epidemiology , Urbanization , Young Adult
5.
Sci Rep ; 12(1): 2696, 2022 02 17.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1699590

ABSTRACT

COVID-19 stressors and psychological stress response are important correlates of suicide risks under the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of COVID-19 stress, its impact on mental health and associated risk factors among the general population during the outbreak of COVID-19 in July 2020 throughout Taiwan. A nationwide population-based survey was conducted using a computer-assisted telephone interview system with a stratified, proportional randomization method for the survey. The questionnaire comprised demographic variables, psychological distress assessed by the five-item Brief Symptom Rating Scale and independent psychosocial variables including COVID-19 stressors, loneliness, suicidality, and health-related self-efficacy. In total, 2094 respondents completed the survey (female 51%). The COVID-19 stress was experienced among 45.4% of the participants, with the most prevalent stressors related to daily life and job/financial concerns. Higher levels of suicidality, loneliness, and a lower level of self-efficacy had significantly higher odds of having COVID-19 stress. The structural equation model revealed that COVID-19 stress was moderately associated with psychological distress and mediated by other psychosocial risk factors. The findings call for more attention on strategies of stress management and mental health promotion for the public to prevent larger scales of psychological consequences in future waves of the COVID-19 pandemic.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/psychology , Loneliness/psychology , Self Efficacy , Stress, Psychological/epidemiology , Suicide/statistics & numerical data , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Cross-Sectional Studies , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Models, Theoretical , Prevalence , Stress, Psychological/etiology , Suicide/psychology , Taiwan/epidemiology , Young Adult
6.
Lancet Psychiatry ; 8(7): 579-588, 2021 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1683800

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic is having profound mental health consequences for many people. Concerns have been expressed that, at their most extreme, these consequences could manifest as increased suicide rates. We aimed to assess the early effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on suicide rates around the world. METHODS: We sourced real-time suicide data from countries or areas within countries through a systematic internet search and recourse to our networks and the published literature. Between Sept 1 and Nov 1, 2020, we searched the official websites of these countries' ministries of health, police agencies, and government-run statistics agencies or equivalents, using the translated search terms "suicide" and "cause of death", before broadening the search in an attempt to identify data through other public sources. Data were included from a given country or area if they came from an official government source and were available at a monthly level from at least Jan 1, 2019, to July 31, 2020. Our internet searches were restricted to countries with more than 3 million residents for pragmatic reasons, but we relaxed this rule for countries identified through the literature and our networks. Areas within countries could also be included with populations of less than 3 million. We used an interrupted time-series analysis to model the trend in monthly suicides before COVID-19 (from at least Jan 1, 2019, to March 31, 2020) in each country or area within a country, comparing the expected number of suicides derived from the model with the observed number of suicides in the early months of the pandemic (from April 1 to July 31, 2020, in the primary analysis). FINDINGS: We sourced data from 21 countries (16 high-income and five upper-middle-income countries), including whole-country data in ten countries and data for various areas in 11 countries). Rate ratios (RRs) and 95% CIs based on the observed versus expected numbers of suicides showed no evidence of a significant increase in risk of suicide since the pandemic began in any country or area. There was statistical evidence of a decrease in suicide compared with the expected number in 12 countries or areas: New South Wales, Australia (RR 0·81 [95% CI 0·72-0·91]); Alberta, Canada (0·80 [0·68-0·93]); British Columbia, Canada (0·76 [0·66-0·87]); Chile (0·85 [0·78-0·94]); Leipzig, Germany (0·49 [0·32-0·74]); Japan (0·94 [0·91-0·96]); New Zealand (0·79 [0·68-0·91]); South Korea (0·94 [0·92-0·97]); California, USA (0·90 [0·85-0·95]); Illinois (Cook County), USA (0·79 [0·67-0·93]); Texas (four counties), USA (0·82 [0·68-0·98]); and Ecuador (0·74 [0·67-0·82]). INTERPRETATION: This is the first study to examine suicides occurring in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in multiple countries. In high-income and upper-middle-income countries, suicide numbers have remained largely unchanged or declined in the early months of the pandemic compared with the expected levels based on the pre-pandemic period. We need to remain vigilant and be poised to respond if the situation changes as the longer-term mental health and economic effects of the pandemic unfold. FUNDING: None.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/complications , Global Health , Models, Statistical , Suicide/statistics & numerical data , Developed Countries/statistics & numerical data , Humans
7.
PLoS One ; 17(1): e0262958, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1648374

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Past works have linked the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent public health responses such as isolation, quarantine, and lockdown to increased anxiety, sleep disorders, depressive symptoms, and suicidal ideation. Only a few studies, mostly carried out in high-income countries, have investigated the association between the pandemic and suicide rate. We seek to investigate the changes in the monthly suicide rates during the COVID-19 pandemic in Nepal, compared to the pre-pandemic suicide rates. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This is a retrospective study investigating the changes in suicide rates in Nepal during the COVID-19 pandemic period (April 2020 to June 2021), compared to the pre-pandemic period (July 2017 to March 2020), adjusted for seasonality and long-term trend in the suicide rate. We performed analysis for the entire country as well as sub-sample analyses stratified by gender and provinces. A total of 24350 suicides deaths during four years of the study window were analyzed. We found an overall increase in the monthly suicide rate in Nepal with an average increase of 0.28 (CI: 0.12,0.45) suicide per 100,000 during the pandemic months. The increase in suicide rate was significant both among males (increase in rate = 0.26, CI: 0.02,0.50) and females (increase in rate = 0.30, CI: 0.18,0.43). The most striking increments in suicide rates were observed in June, July, and August 2020. The pattern of increased suicide rates faded away early on among males, but the effect was sustained for a longer duration among females. Sudurpaschim and Karnali provinces had the highest increase in suicide rates associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic is associated with an increased suicide rate in Nepal. The findings may inform policymakers in designing appropriate public health responses to the pandemic that are considerate of the potential impact on mental health and suicide.


Subject(s)
Anxiety/psychology , COVID-19/psychology , Depression/psychology , Social Isolation/psychology , Suicidal Ideation , Suicide/psychology , Adult , Anxiety/epidemiology , COVID-19/epidemiology , Depression/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Male , Mental Health/statistics & numerical data , Nepal/epidemiology , Quarantine/psychology , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity , Suicide/statistics & numerical data
9.
JAMA Netw Open ; 5(1): e2143144, 2022 01 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1620075

ABSTRACT

Importance: Self-harm and deaths among adolescents and young adults are notably related to drug poisonings and suicide. With the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic, there are projections about a greater likelihood of such events arising among adolescents and young adults. Objective: To evaluate the risk of self-harm, overdose, and all-cause mortality among adolescents and young adults during the COVID-19 pandemic. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based cohort study took place in Ontario, Canada, where a universal health care system captures all emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalizations, and deaths. The participants included all adolescents and young adults born in Ontario between 1990 and 2006, who were aged 14 to 24 years between March 1, 2018, and June 30, 2021. Exposures: The COVID-19 pandemic era (April 1, 2020 to June 30, 2021), relative to the 2 years preceding the pandemic (March 1, 2018 to February 28, 2020). Main Outcomes and Measures: ED encounters or hospitalizations for self-harm or overdose. A secondary outcome was self-harm, overdose, or all-cause mortality. Cause-specific hazard models to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% CIs were used for the primary outcome. Follow-up started at March 1, 2018, or the individual's 14th birthday, whichever was later, and age was used as the time scale. Results: In this study, 1 690 733 adolescents and young adults (823 904 [51.3%] female participants) were included with a median (IQR) age of 17.7 (14.1-21.4) years at start of follow-up. After 4 110 903 person-years of follow-up, 6224 adolescents and young adults experienced the primary outcome of self-harm or overdose during the pandemic (39.7 per 10 000 person-years) vs 12 970 (51.0 per 10 000 person-years) prepandemic, with an HR of 0.78 (95% CI, 0.75-0.80). The risk of self-harm, overdose, or death was also lower during than before the pandemic (HR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.76-0.81), but not all-cause mortality (HR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.86-1.05). Conclusions and Relevance: Among adolescents and young adults, the initial 15-month period of the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a relative decline in hospital care for self-harm or overdose.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Drug Overdose , Emergency Service, Hospital , Hospitalization , Pandemics , Self-Injurious Behavior , Suicide , Adolescent , Adult , COVID-19/epidemiology , Cause of Death , Cohort Studies , Delivery of Health Care , Drug Overdose/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Male , Ontario/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2 , Self-Injurious Behavior/epidemiology , Suicide/statistics & numerical data , Young Adult
10.
Lancet ; 398(10303): 920-930, 2021 09 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1593950

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 pandemic has heightened interest in how physician mental health can be protected and optimised, but uncertainty and misinformation remain about some key issues. In this Review, we discuss the current literature, which shows that despite what might be inferred during training, physicians are not immune to mental illness, with between a quarter and a third reporting increased symptoms of mental ill health. Physicians, particularly female physicians, are at an increased risk of suicide. An emerging consensus exists that some aspects of physician training, working conditions, and organisational support are unacceptable. Changes in medical training and health systems, and the additional strain of working through a pandemic, might have amplified these problems. A new evidence-informed framework for how individual and organisational interventions can be used in an integrated manner in medical schools, in health-care settings, and by professional colleagues is proposed. New initiatives are required at each of these levels, with an urgent need for organisational-level interventions, to better protect the mental health and wellbeing of physicians.


Subject(s)
Mental Disorders/epidemiology , Physicians/psychology , Suicide/statistics & numerical data , Burnout, Professional , COVID-19/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Male , Mental Disorders/prevention & control , Pandemics , Physicians, Women/psychology , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2 , Substance-Related Disorders/epidemiology , Suicide/prevention & control , Work Schedule Tolerance
11.
Pediatrics ; 148(1)2021 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1533449

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Depression is common, and suicide rates are increasing. Adolescent depression screening might miss those with unidentified suicide risk. Our primary objective in this study was to compare the magnitude of positive screen results across different approaches. METHODS: From June 2019 to October 2020, 803 mostly Medicaid-enrolled adolescents aged ≥12 years with no recent history of depression or self-harm were screened with the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 Modified for Adolescents (PHQ-9A) and the Ask Suicide-Screening Questions (ASQ) across 12 primary care practices. Two PHQ-9A screening strategies were evaluated: screening for any type of depression or other mental illness (positive on any item) or screening for major depressive disorder (MDD) (total score ≥10). RESULTS: Overall, 56.4% of patients screened positive for any type of depression, 24.7% screened positive for MDD, and 21.1% screened positive for suicide risk. Regardless of PHQ-9A screening strategy, the ASQ identified additional subjects (eg, 2.2% additional cases compared with screening for any type of depression or other mental illness and 8.3% additional cases compared with screening positive for MDD). Of those with ≥6 month follow-up, 22.9% screened positive for any type of depression (n = 205), 35.6% screened positive for MDD (n = 90), and 42.7% with a positive ASQ result (n = 75) had a depression or self-harm diagnosis or an antidepressant prescription. CONCLUSIONS: Suicide risk screening identifies cases not identified by depression screening. In this study, we underscore opportunities and challenges in primary care related to the high prevalence of depression and suicide risk. Research is needed regarding optimal screening strategies and to help clinicians manage the expected number of screening-identified adolescents.


Subject(s)
Depression/epidemiology , Mass Screening/methods , Primary Health Care/methods , Suicide/statistics & numerical data , Adolescent , Antidepressive Agents/therapeutic use , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/psychology , Child , Depression/diagnosis , Depression/drug therapy , Depressive Disorder, Major/diagnosis , Depressive Disorder, Major/drug therapy , Depressive Disorder, Major/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Loneliness , Male , Mental Disorders/diagnosis , Mental Disorders/epidemiology , Pandemics , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2 , Social Isolation , Suicide/prevention & control , Young Adult
14.
Public Health Res Pract ; 31(3)2021 Sep 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1471205

ABSTRACT

Emerging evidence, based on the synthesis of reports from past infectious disease-related public health emergencies, supports an association between previous pandemics and a heightened risk of suicide or suicide-related behaviours and outcomes. Anxiety associated with pandemic media reporting appears to be one critical contributing factor. Social isolation, loneliness, and the disconnect that can result from public health strategies during global pandemics also appear to increase suicide risk in vulnerable individuals. Innovative suicide risk assessment and prevention strategies are needed to recognise and adapt to the negative impacts of pandemics on population mental health.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Pandemics , Suicide/prevention & control , Suicide/statistics & numerical data , Anxiety/epidemiology , Anxiety/psychology , COVID-19/psychology , Humans , Loneliness/psychology , Mental Health , Public Health , Risk Assessment/methods , SARS-CoV-2 , Social Isolation/psychology , Suicide/psychology
15.
J R Soc Med ; 114(10): 473-479, 2021 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1435171

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this research was to evaluate the impact of federal, public health and social support programs on national suicide rates in Canada. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: Canadian National Database (i.e., Statistics Canada) and Statista. PARTICIPANTS: Population-level data, and economic and consumer market data. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Suicide mortality data, population data and unemployment data were obtained from available statistical databases (e.g. Statistics Canada). We quantified suicide rate by dividing the total number of suicide deaths by the national population expressed as a rate per 100,000 population. RESULTS: Overall suicide mortality rate decreased in Canada from 10.82 deaths per 100,000 in the March 2019 - February 2020 period to 7.34 per 100,000 (i.e. absolute difference of 1300 deaths) in the March 2020 - February 2021 period. The overall Canadian unemployment rate changed from an average monthly rate of 5.7% in 2019 to 9.5% in 2020. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that for the first post-pandemic interval evaluated (i.e., March 2020 - February 2021), suicide rates in Canada decreased against a background of extraordinary public health measures intended to mitigate community spread of COVID-19. An externality of public health measures was a significant rise in national unemployment rates in population measures of distress. Our results suggest that government interventions that broadly aim to reduce measures of insecurity (i.e., economic, housing, health), and timely psychiatric services, should be prioritised as part of a national suicide reduction strategy, not only during but after termination of the COVID-19 pandemic.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Pandemics , Public Health , Suicide/prevention & control , COVID-19/complications , COVID-19/psychology , Canada/epidemiology , Cross-Sectional Studies , Government , Humans , Retrospective Studies , Suicide/statistics & numerical data , Survival Rate/trends
17.
Asia Pac Psychiatry ; 13(3): e12482, 2021 Sep.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1352415

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Suicide prevention during Covid 19 has become a global priority because the current pandemic has led to societal difficulties threatening the fabric of our lifestyle with increased morbidity and mortality. Modelling studies published since the COVID 19 pandemic was declared in March 2020 estimate that suicide rates will increase by anywhere between 1% to 145% globally in response to the pandemic and action needs to be taken. METHODS: A narrative literature review on high quality evidence sources limited to human studies and publications written in English language only has been used to examine the relationship of COVID 19 and existing mental illness or history of mental illness, suicide prevention strategies and changes in overall suicide rates. RESULTS: A total of 39 papers are summarised and grouped using the headings aetiological factors, proposed interventions to increase access and national policies to provide a framework for suicide prevention during pandemics such as COVID 19. This review indicates that 1) investing in active labour market programmes will result in a decreased suicide rate during times of high unemployment 2) People in low paid and casual jobs require specific support because they are most financially vulnerable during a pandemic related crisis 3) Women require specific support during a pandemic because of the type of employment they have and because they often carry a greater proportion of the domestic burden and are at increased risk of domestic violence during lockdown and crisis 4) Mental health and substance misuse services need to be appropriately funded and prioritised during and post pandemic, due to the associated increase in substance misuse during a pandemic causing worsening mental health and increased risk of suicide 5) National Suicide Prevention Strategies should be developed by all countries and should anticipate response to a range of disasters, including a pandemic 6) Suicide prevention is everybody's business and National Suicide Prevention Strategies should adopt a whole-systems approach including mental health services, primary care, social care, NGO's and other community stakeholders 7) Suicide is preventable 8) It is essential to prioritise suicide prevention strategies in the COVID and post-COVID period to ensure that lives are saved. DISCUSSION: Increase in suicide is not inevitable and suicide prevention during pandemics and post COVID 19 pandemics requires a collaborative whole system approach. We require real time data to inform dynamic action planning.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/psychology , Mental Disorders , Mental Health , Suicide , COVID-19/epidemiology , Global Health , Humans , Mental Disorders/diagnosis , Mental Disorders/epidemiology , Preventive Health Services , SARS-CoV-2 , Social Determinants of Health , Social Isolation/psychology , Suicide/prevention & control , Suicide/psychology , Suicide/statistics & numerical data
19.
PLoS One ; 16(7): e0255342, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1332009

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Suicide is a major social and health issue in India. Yearly statistics show a concerning increasing pattern of suicidal deaths in India which is higher in comparison to the global trend. There is limited evidence regarding historical analysis of suicide or any forecasting for suicide in India towards predicting the possible risks of death due to suicide. METHODS: This paper examines the trend of suicide rate and characteristics of suicide victims in India, based on the longitudinal time series data over the last 50 years-collected from the National Crime Record Bureau Reports (1969 to 2018) of the Government of India. In our analysis, we have used the time series model to forecast the suicide rates in India for the next decade. ARIMA (4,1,0) model is found to be the best fit model for forecasting the data. FINDINGS: There has been an observable and rising trend of suicide rates in India over the last five decades. The forecast indicates a continuance of rising suicide cases for an upcoming couple of years in India with a limited decline in the following years. The prediction model indicates a future relatively consistent pattern of suicide in India which does not seem to be a very encouraging trend. As we have not included the period staring the year 2020 onwards affected by Covid-19 and which has several disruptions in personal and family spaces, the projected suicide trend during the period of next two to three years (2020-22) may rise far high and then it may show a declining path. Along with this, there is a shift in means of suicide in the last couple of decades. Constituting the second-highest number of cases, Illness associated suicide was visibly a serious concern. CONCLUSION: The present analysis finds that there is no visible substantial relief for suicide deaths during the coming years in India. On the other hand, more extensive exploration of sample cases may provide important information for suicide prevention. Availability of detailed and more inclusive data will be highly useful for analysis and suicide preventive policies. Investment in public health care and other welfare activities like education and employment generation will yield visible positive results in suicide control.


Subject(s)
Suicide/statistics & numerical data , Adolescent , Adult , COVID-19/psychology , Educational Status , Employment/statistics & numerical data , Female , Forecasting/methods , Humans , India , Male , Middle Aged , Young Adult
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