Assessing the sustainability of the Systems Analysis and Improvement Approach to increase HIV testing in family planning clinics in Mombasa, Kenya: results of a cluster randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: In Kenya, HIV incidence is highest among reproductive-age women. A key HIV mitigation strategy is the integration of HIV testing and counseling (HTC) into family planning services, but successful integration remains problematic. We conducted a cluster-randomized trial using the Systems Analysis and Improvement Approach (SAIA) to identify and address bottlenecks in HTC integration in family planning clinics in Mombasa County, Kenya. This trial (1) assessed the efficacy of this approach and (2) examined if SAIA could be sustainably incorporated into the Department of Health Services (DOHS) programmatic activities. In Stage 1, SAIA was effective at increasing HTC uptake. Here, we present Stage 2, which assessed if SAIA delivery would be sustained when implemented by the Mombasa County DOHS and if high HTC performance would continue to be observed. METHODS: Twenty-four family planning clinics in Mombasa County were randomized to either the SAIA implementation strategy or standard care. In Stage 1, the study staff conducted all study activities. In Stage 2, we transitioned SAIA implementation to DOHS staff and compared HTC in the intervention versus control clinics 1-year post-transition. Study staff provided training and minimal support to DOHS implementers and collected quarterly HTC outcome data. Interviews were conducted with family planning clinic staff to assess barriers and facilitators to sustaining HTC delivery. RESULTS: Only 39% (56/144) of planned SAIA visits were completed, largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic and a prolonged healthcare worker strike. In the final study quarter, 81.6% (160/196) of new clients at intervention facilities received HIV counseling, compared to 22.4% (55/245) in control facilities (prevalence rate ratio [PRR]=3.64, 95% confidence interval [CI]=2.68-4.94). HIV testing was conducted with 60.5% (118/195) of new family planning clients in intervention clinics, compared to 18.8% (45/240) in control clinics (PRR=3.23, 95% CI=2.29-4.55). Interviews with family planning clinic staff suggested institutionalization contributed to sustained HTC delivery, facilitated by low implementation strategy complexity and continued oversight. CONCLUSIONS: Intervention clinics demonstrated sustained improvement in HTC after SAIA was transitioned to DOHS leadership despite wide-scale healthcare disruptions and incomplete delivery of the implementation strategy. These findings suggest that system interventions may be sustained when integrated into DOHS programmatic activities. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02994355) registered on 16 December 2016.

Predicting and preventing COVID-19 outbreaks in indoor environments: an agent-based modeling study.

How to mitigate the spread of infectious diseases like COVID-19 in indoor environments remains an important research question. In this study, we propose an agent-based modeling framework to evaluate facility usage policies that aim to lower the probability of outbreaks. The proposed framework is individual-based, spatially-resolved with time resolution of up to 1 s, and takes into detailed account specific floor layouts, occupant schedules and movement. It enables decision makers to compute realistic contact networks and generate risk profiles of their facilities without relying on wearable devices, smartphone tagging or surveillance cameras. Our demonstrative modeling results indicate that not all facility occupants present the same risk of starting an outbreak, where the driver of outbreaks varies with facility layouts as well as individual occupant schedules. Therefore, generic mitigation strategies applied across all facilities should be considered inferior to tailored policies that take into account individual characteristics of the facilities of interest. The proposed modeling framework, implemented in Python and now available to the public in an open-source platform, enables such strategy evaluation.

Student reflections on an interdisciplinary pandemics course utilising systems thinking.

ISSUE ADDRESSED: The complexity and uncertainty of the COVID-19 pandemic highlights the need to change training of public health professionals in higher education by shifting from siloed specialisations to interdisciplinary collaboration. At the end of 2020 and 2021, public health professionals collaboratively designed and delivered, a week-long intensive course-Public Health in Pandemics. The aim of this research study was to understand whether the use of systems thinking in the design and delivery of the course enabled students to grasp the interdisciplinary nature of contemporary health promotion and public health practice. RESEARCH METHODS: Two focus group interviews (n = 5 and 3/47) and a course opinion survey (n = 11/47) were utilised to gather information from students regarding experiences and perceptions of course design and delivery, and to determine if students felt better able to understand the complex nature of pandemics and pandemic responses. MAJOR FINDINGS: Students provided positive feedback on the course and believed that the course design and delivery assisted in understanding the complex nature of health problems and the ways in which health promotion and public health practitioners need to work across sectors with diverse disciplines for pandemic responses. CONCLUSIONS: The use of an integrated interdisciplinary approach to course design and delivery enabled students used systems thinking to understand the complexity in preparing for and responding to a pandemic. This approach may have utility in preparing an agile, iterative and adaptive health promotion and public health workforce more capable of facing the challenges and complexity in public health.

System dynamics analysis on the effectiveness of vaccination and social mobilization policies for COVID-19 in the United States.

The COVID-19 pandemic has presented significant public health and economic challenges worldwide. Various health and non-pharmaceutical policies have been adopted by different countries to control the spread of the virus. To shed light on the impact of vaccination and social mobilization policies during this wide-ranging crisis, this paper applies a system dynamics analysis on the effectiveness of these two types of policies on pandemic containment and the economy in the United States. Based on the simulation of different policy scenarios, the findings are expected to help decisions and mitigation efforts throughout this pandemic and beyond.

Statistical and agent-based modelling of the transmissibility of different SARS-CoV-2 variants in England and impact of different interventions.

The English SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has been affected by the emergence of new viral variants such as B.1.177, Alpha and Delta, and changing restrictions. We used statistical models and the agent-based model Covasim, in June 2021, to estimate B.1.177 to be 20% more transmissible than the wild type, Alpha to be 50-80% more transmissible than B.1.177 and Delta to be 65-90% more transmissible than Alpha. Using these estimates in Covasim (calibrated 1 September 2020 to 20 June 2021), in June 2021, we found that due to the high transmissibility of Delta, resurgence in infections driven by the Delta variant would not be prevented, but would be strongly reduced by delaying the relaxation of restrictions by one month and with continued vaccination. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'.

Navigating the river(s) of systems change: a multi-methods, qualitative evaluation exploring the implementation of a systems approach to physical activity in Gloucestershire, England.

OBJECTIVES: Systems approaches aim to change the environments in which people live, through cross-sectoral working, by harnessing the complexity of the problem. This paper sought to identify: (1) the strategies which support the implementation of We Can Move (WCM), (2) the barriers to implementation, (3) key contextual factors that influence implementation and (4) impacts associated with WCM. DESIGN: A multi-methods evaluation of WCM was completed between April 2019 and April 2021. Ripple Effects Mapping (REM) and semi-structured interviewers were used. Framework and content analysis were systematically applied to the dataset. SETTING: WCM-a physical activity orientated systems approach being implemented in Gloucestershire, England. PARTICIPANTS: 31 stakeholder interviews and 25 stakeholders involved in 15 REM workshops. RESULTS: A white-water rafting analogy was developed to present the main findings. The successful implementation of WCM required a facilitative, well-connected and knowledgeable guide (ie, the lead organisation), a crew (ie, wider stakeholders) who's vision and agenda aligned with WCM's purpose, and a flexible delivery approach that could respond to ever-changing nature of the river (ie, local and national circumstances). The context surrounding WCM further strengthened and hampered its implementation. Barriers included evaluative difficulties, a difference in stakeholder and organisational perspectives, misaligned expectations and understandings of WCM, and COVID-19 implications (COVID-19 also presented as a facilitative factor). WCM was said to strengthen cohesion and collaboration between partners, benefit other agendas and policies (eg, mental health, town planning, inequality), and improve physical activity opportunities and environments. CONCLUSIONS: This paper is one of the first to evaluate a systems approach to increasing physical activity. We highlight key strategies and contextual factors that influenced the implementation of WCM and demonstrate some of the wider benefits from such approaches. Further research and methodologies are required to build the evidence base surrounding systems approaches in Public Health.

Combinational Recommendation of Vaccinations, Mask-Wearing, and Home-Quarantine to Control Influenza in Megacities: An Agent-Based Modeling Study With Large-Scale Trajectory Data.

The outbreak of COVID-19 stimulated a new round of discussion on how to deal with respiratory infectious diseases. Influenza viruses have led to several pandemics worldwide. The spatiotemporal characteristics of influenza transmission in modern cities, especially megacities, are not well-known, which increases the difficulty of influenza prevention and control for populous urban areas. For a long time, influenza prevention and control measures have focused on vaccination of the elderly and children, and school closure. Since the outbreak of COVID-19, the public's awareness of measures such as vaccinations, mask-wearing, and home-quarantine has generally increased in some regions of the world. To control the influenza epidemic and reduce the proportion of infected people with high mortality, the combination of these three measures needs quantitative evaluation based on the spatiotemporal transmission characteristics of influenza in megacities. Given that the agent-based model with both demographic attributes and fine-grained mobility is a key planning tool in deploying intervention strategies, this study proposes a spatially explicit agent-based influenza model for assessing and recommending the combinations of influenza control measures. This study considers Shenzhen city, China as the research area. First, a spatially explicit agent-based influenza transmission model was developed by integrating large-scale individual trajectory data and human response behavior. Then, the model was evaluated across multiple intra-urban spatial scales based on confirmed influenza cases. Finally, the model was used to evaluate the combined effects of the three interventions (V: vaccinations, M: mask-wearing, and Q: home-quarantining) under different compliance rates, and their optimal combinations for given control objectives were recommended. This study reveals that adults were a high-risk population with a low reporting rate, and children formed the lowest infected proportion and had the highest reporting rate in Shenzhen. In addition, this study systematically recommended different combinations of vaccinations, mask-wearing, and home-quarantine with different compliance rates for different control objectives to deal with the influenza epidemic. For example, the "V45%-M60%-Q20%" strategy can maintain the infection percentage below 5%, while the "V20%-M60%-Q20%" strategy can maintain the infection percentage below 15%. The model and policy recommendations from this study provide a tool and intervention reference for influenza epidemic management in the post-COVID-19 era.

Health systems analysis and evaluation of the barriers to availability, utilisation and readiness of sexual and reproductive health services in COVID-19-affected areas: a WHO mixed-methods study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: COVID-19 has led to an unprecedented increase in demand on health systems to care for people infected, necessitating the allocation of significant resources, especially medical resources, towards the response. This, compounded by the restrictions on movement instituted may have led to disruptions in the provision of essential services, including sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services. This study aims to assess the availability of contraception, comprehensive abortion care, sexually transmitted infection prevention and treatment and sexual and gender-based violence care and support services in local health facilities during COVID-19 pandemic. This is a standardised generic protocol designed for use across different global settings. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This study adopts both quantitative and qualitative methods to assess health facilities' SRH service availability and readiness, and clients' and providers' perceptions of the availability and readiness of these services in COVID-19-affected areas. The study has two levels: (1) perceptions of clients (and the partners) and healthcare providers, using qualitative methods, and (2) assessment of infrastructure availability and readiness to provide SRH services through reviews, facility service statistics for clients and a qualitative survey for healthcare provider perspectives. The health system assessment will use a cross-sectional panel survey design with two data collection points to capture changes in SRH services availability as a result of the COVID-19 epidemic. Data will be collected using focus group discussions, in-depth interviews and a health facility assessment survey. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval for this study was obtained from the WHO Scientific and Ethics Review Committee (protocol ID CERC.0103). Each study site is required to obtain the necessary ethical and regulatory approvals that are required in each specific country.

Virtual office intervention effectiveness: A systems approach.

BACKGROUND: Virtual office work, or telework/remote work, has existed since the 1970s due to the widespread availability of new technologies. Despite a dramatic increase in remote office work, few studies have examined its long-term effects on work environments and worker well-being. OBJECTIVE: A prospective field intervention study was undertaken to examine the effects of a Virtual Office program on office workers' psychosocial perceptions, mental and physical well-being, workplace satisfaction, and performance. METHOD: A large public service organization undertook a 12-month Virtual Office (VO) pilot program using a systems approach. The study included 137 VO employees (intervention condition), and 85 Conventional Office (CO) employees (control condition). The VO intervention used a work system approach consisting of establishing a steering committee, training programs, and VO resource website. Employee survey measures and follow-up focus group observations were used to examine the impact of the VO intervention. RESULTS: Virtual office participants reported higher job control, group interactions and cohesiveness, and quality of supervision than the CO participants. VO participants reported lower upper body musculoskeletal symptoms and physical/mental stress than CO participants. VO participants reported higher performance (customer satisfaction) than the CO participants. CONCLUSION: The study findings were sufficiently positive to provide a basis for work organizations to undertake similar pilot programs. Consideration of work system factors when designing an effective VO program can benefit employee's well-being and performance. The rationale for implementing VO programs is underscored by the current COVID-19 pandemic. VO work will continue to some degree for the foreseeable future.

Systems approach to improving traumatic brain injury care in Myanmar: a mixed-methods study from lived experience to discrete event simulation.

OBJECTIVES: Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a global health problem, whose management in low-resource settings is hampered by fragile health systems and lack of access to specialist services. Improvement is complex, given the interaction of multiple people, processes and institutions. We aimed to develop a mixed-method approach to understand the TBI pathway based on the lived experience of local people, supported by quantitative methodologies and to determine potential improvement targets. DESIGN: We describe a systems approach based on narrative exploration, participatory diagramming, data collection and discrete event simulation (DES), conducted by an international research collaborative. SETTING: The study is set in the tertiary neurotrauma centre in Yangon General Hospital, Myanmar, in 2019-2020 (prior to the SARS-CoV2 pandemic). PARTICIPANTS: The qualitative work involved 40 workshop participants and 64 interviewees to explore the views of a wide range of stakeholders including staff, patients and relatives. The 1-month retrospective admission snapshot covered 85 surgical neurotrauma admissions. RESULTS: The TBI pathway was outlined, with system boundaries defined around the management of TBI once admitted to the neurosurgical unit. Retrospective data showed 18% mortality, 71% discharge to home and an 11% referral rate. DES was used to investigate the system, showing its vulnerability to small surges in patient numbers, with critical points being CT scanning and observation ward beds. This explorative model indicated that a modest expansion of observation ward beds to 30 would remove the flow-limitations and indicated possible consequences of changes. CONCLUSIONS: A systems approach to improving TBI care in resource-poor settings may be supported by simulation and informed by qualitative work to ground it in the direct experience of those involved. Narrative interviews, participatory diagramming and DES represent one possible suite of methods deliverable within an international partnership. Findings can support targeted improvement investments despite coexisting resource limitations while indicating concomitant risks.

Fine-Grained Agent-Based Modeling to Predict Covid-19 Spreading and Effect of Policies in Large-Scale Scenarios.

Modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19 remains an open problem for several reasons. One of these concerns the difficulty to model a complex system at a high resolution (fine-grained) level at which the spread can be simulated by taking into account individual features. Agent-based modeling usually needs to find an optimal trade-off between the resolution of the simulation and the population size. Indeed, modeling single individuals usually leads to simulations of smaller populations or the use of meta-populations. In this article, we propose a solution to efficiently model the Covid-19 spread in Lombardy, themost populated Italian region with about ten million people. In particular, the model described in this paper is, to the best of our knowledge, the first attempt in literature to model a large population at the single-individual level. To achieve this goal, we propose a framework that implements: i. a scale-free model of the social contacts combining a sociability rate, demographic information, and geographical assumptions; ii. a multi-agent system relying on the actor model and the High-Performance Computing technology to efficiently implement ten million concurrent agents. We simulated the epidemic scenario from January to April 2020 and from August to December 2020, modeling the government's lockdown policies and people's mask-wearing habits. The social modeling approach we propose could be rapidly adapted for modeling future epidemics at their early stage in scenarios where little prior knowledge is available.

Combating Viral Diseases in the Era of Systems Medicine.

Viruses can cause many diseases resulting in disabilities and death. Fortunately, advances in systems medicine enable the development of effective therapies for treating viral diseases, of vaccines to prevent viral infections, as well as of diagnostic tools to mitigate the risk and reduce the death toll. Characterizing the SARS-CoV-2 gene sequence and the role of its spike protein in infection informs development of small molecule drugs, antibodies, and vaccines to combat infection and complication, as well as to end the pandemic. Drug repurposing of small molecule drugs is a viable strategy to combat viral diseases; the key concepts include (1) linking a drug candidate's pharmacological network to its pharmacodynamic response in patients; (2) linking a drug candidate's physicochemical properties to its pharmacokinetic characteristics; and (3) optimizing the safe and effective dosing regimen within its therapeutic window. Computational integration of drug-induced signaling pathways with clinical outcomes is useful to inform selection of potential drug candidates with respect to safety and effectiveness. Key pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic principles for computational optimization of drug development include a drug candidate's Cminss/IC95 ratio, pharmacokinetic characteristics, and systemic exposure-response relationship, where Cminss is the trough concentration following multiple dosing. In summary, systems medicine approaches play a vital role in global success in combating viral diseases, including global real-time information sharing, development of test kits, drug repurposing, discovery and development of safe, effective therapies, detection of highly transmissible and deadly variants, and development of vaccines.

Development and Applications of Interoperable Biomedical Ontologies for Integrative Data and Knowledge Representation and Multiscale Modeling in Systems Medicine.

The data FAIR Guiding Principles state that all data should be Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable. Ontology is critical to data integration, sharing, and analysis. Given thousands of ontologies have been developed in the era of artificial intelligence, it is critical to have interoperable ontologies to support standardized data and knowledge presentation and reasoning. For interoperable ontology development, the eXtensible ontology development (XOD) strategy offers four principles including ontology term reuse, semantic alignment, ontology design pattern usage, and community extensibility. Many software programs are available to help implement these principles. As a demonstration, the XOD strategy is applied to developing the interoperable Coronavirus Infectious Disease Ontology (CIDO). Various applications of interoperable ontologies, such as COVID-19 and kidney precision medicine research, are also introduced in this chapter.

The suppression effect of emotional contagion in the COVID-19 pandemic: A multi-layer hybrid modelling and simulation approach.

The entire world has suffered a lot since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in 2019, so simulation models of COVID-19 dynamics are urgently needed to understand and control the pandemic better. Meanwhile, emotional contagion, the spread of vigilance or panic, serves as a negative feedback to the epidemic, but few existing models take it into consideration. In this study, we proposed an innovative multi-layer hybrid modelling and simulation approach to simulate disease transmission and emotional contagion together. In each layer, we used a hybrid simulation method combining agent-based modelling (ABM) with system dynamics modelling (SDM), keeping spatial heterogeneity while reducing computation costs. We designed a new emotion dynamics model IWAN (indifferent, worried, afraid and numb) to simulate emotional contagion inside a community during an epidemic. Our model was well fit to the data of China, the UK and the US during the COVID-19 pandemic. If there weren't emotional contagion, our experiments showed that the confirmed cases would increase rapidly, for instance, the total confirmed cases during simulation in Guangzhou, China would grow from 334 to 2096, which increased by 528%. We compared the calibrated emotional contagion parameters of different countries and found that the suppression effect of emotional contagion in China is relatively more visible than that in the US and the UK. Due to the experiment results, the proposed multi-layer network model with hybrid simulation is valid and can be applied to the quantitative analysis of the epidemic trends and the suppression effect of emotional contagion in different countries. Our model can be modified for further research to study other social factors and intervention policies in the COVID-19 pandemic or future epidemics.

A Simulation Study of Coronavirus as an Epidemic Disease Using Agent-Based Modeling.

At the end of 2019, the world faced the novel coronavirus, and with it fear of economic collapse and mass fatalities. Simulation systems can be used to monitor the behavior of the virus. Simulation provides an abstract representation of reality by conveying details and characteristics of reality in a simple application. One of the most important ways to simulate is agent-based modeling. The health information professional plays an important role in developing these models. In this research, we simulate the spread of COVID-19 in a region restricted to a population with specific demographic characteristics and social relationships. This study aims to clarify the effects of preventative techniques that suppress the spread of epidemics, such as quarantines, social distancing, and reduced mass transit.

INFEKTA-An agent-based model for transmission of infectious diseases: The COVID-19 case in Bogotá, Colombia.

The transmission dynamics of the coronavirus-COVID-19-have challenged humankind at almost every level. Currently, research groups around the globe are trying to figure out such transmission dynamics under special conditions such as separation policies enforced by governments. Mathematical and computational models, like the compartmental model or the agent-based model, are being used for this purpose. This paper proposes an agent-based model, called INFEKTA, for simulating the transmission of infectious diseases, not only the COVID-19, under social distancing policies. INFEKTA combines the transmission dynamic of a specific disease, (according to parameters found in the literature) with demographic information (population density, age, and genre of individuals) of geopolitical regions of the real town or city under study. Agents (virtual persons) can move, according to its mobility routines and the enforced social distancing policy, on a complex network of accessible places defined over an Euclidean space representing the town or city. The transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 under different social distancing policies in Bogotá city, the capital of Colombia, is simulated using INFEKTA with one million virtual persons. A sensitivity analysis of the impact of social distancing policies indicates that it is possible to establish a 'medium' (i.e., close 40% of the places) social distancing policy to achieve a significant reduction in the disease transmission.

Engineering Solutions to COVID-19 and Racial and Ethnic Health Disparities.

The role of engineers in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and in the elimination of health disparities, while not always visible, has important implications for the attainment of impactful solutions. The design skills, systems approach, and innovative mindset that engineers bring all have the potential to combat crises in novel and impactful ways. When a disparities lens is applied, a lens that views gaps in access, resources, and care, the engineering solutions are bound to be more robust and equitable. The disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on the Black community and other communities of color is linked to inequities in health rooted in a centuries long structural racism. Engineers working collaboratively with physicians and healthcare providers are poised to close equity gaps and strengthen the collective response to COVID-19 and future pandemics.

Assessing the quality of evidence from epidemiological agent-based models for the COVID-19 pandemic.

Agent-based models (ABMs) are one of the main sources of evidence for decisions regarding mitigation and suppression measures against the spread of SARS-CoV-2. These models have not been previously included in the hierarchy of evidence put forth by the evidence-based medicine movement, which prioritizes those research methods that deliver results less susceptible to the risk of confounding. We point out the need to assess the quality of evidence delivered by ABMs and ask the question of what is the risk that assumptions entertained in ABMs do not include all the key factors and make model predictions susceptible to the problem of confounding.