Your browser doesn't support javascript.
Show: 20 | 50 | 100
Results 1 - 20 de 134
Filter
Add filters

Year range
1.
Am J Pharm Educ ; 84(6): ajpe8144, 2020 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-646924

ABSTRACT

During times of stress, such as those experienced during the novel coronavirus identified in 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, pharmacy students handle the experience differently. For some, the experience may negatively impact their sense of well-being; for others, being at home with family could actually improve their well-being. While students are completing academic work at home and after they finally return to campus, pharmacy schools need to be keenly aware of students' experiences and implement strategies to build their resilience and improve their well-being. One approach will not meet the needs of all students. Many of the challenges that pharmacy students have faced or will face when they return to the classroom are discussed along with some programs and activities that have proven successful.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Education, Pharmacy/organization & administration , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Schools, Pharmacy/organization & administration , Students, Pharmacy/psychology , Academic Success , Betacoronavirus , Cooperative Behavior , Empowerment , Health Status , Humans , Interpersonal Relations , Mental Health , Motivation , Occupational Stress/epidemiology , Pandemics , Resilience, Psychological , Uncertainty , United States
3.
Lancet Infect Dis ; 20(9): 1002-1004, 2020 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-741595
6.
PLoS One ; 15(8): e0238090, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-733001

ABSTRACT

In the article a virus transmission model is constructed on a simplified social network. The social network consists of more than 2 million nodes, each representing an inhabitant of Slovenia. The nodes are organised and interconnected according to the real household and elderly-care center distribution, while their connections outside these clusters are semi-randomly distributed and undirected. The virus spread model is coupled to the disease progression model. The ensemble approach with the perturbed transmission and disease parameters is used to quantify the ensemble spread, a proxy for the forecast uncertainty. The presented ongoing forecasts of COVID-19 epidemic in Slovenia are compared with the collected Slovenian data. Results show that at the end of the first epidemic wave, the infection was twice more likely to transmit within households/elderly care centers than outside them. We use an ensemble of simulations (N = 1000) and data assimilation approach to estimate the COVID-19 forecast uncertainty and to inversely obtain posterior distributions of model parameters. We found that in the uncontrolled epidemic, the intrinsic uncertainty mostly originates from the uncertainty of the virus biology, i.e. its reproduction number. In the controlled epidemic with low ratio of infected population, the randomness of the social network becomes the major source of forecast uncertainty, particularly for the short-range forecasts. Virus transmission models with accurate social network models are thus essential for improving epidemics forecasting.


Subject(s)
Computer Simulation , Coronavirus Infections/transmission , Pneumonia, Viral/transmission , Social Networking , Basic Reproduction Number , Betacoronavirus , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Disease Progression , Family Characteristics , Forecasting , Humans , Models, Theoretical , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Slovenia/epidemiology , Uncertainty
7.
Crit Care Nurs Q ; 43(4): 451-467, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-729224

ABSTRACT

This article provides a road map to swiftly operationalize the structure and process for organizational readiness in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic forced network leaders to face an unprecedented public health crisis while navigating circumstances driven by a widely impactful disease with minimal empirical evidence regarding disease spread, containment, and treatment. Key leaders across the enterprise planned, executed, and continually refined a strategy against the pandemic surge. Mission-driven decisions, communication, and actions were critical in connecting and informing the stakeholders about the evolving and uncertain conditions. In partnership with internal and external stakeholders, the use of data, technology, and innovation provided new opportunities to transform existing care and business models into adaptable prototypes for mitigating risks and informing tactical steps. Execution of testing sites, building a command center, and increasing bed capacity infused daily operations. Creating innovative processes, including working with private industry to secure resources and pioneering solutions, is the result of leveraging talented teams to produce solutions. Trustful partnerships among enterprise leaders and their constituents stemmed from a common, shared vision. Utilizing systems thinking led to optimizing a response and preparedness plan for now and for future pandemics.


Subject(s)
Community Networks/organization & administration , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Leadership , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Humans , Uncertainty
9.
Science ; 369(6505): 780, 2020 08 14.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-725945
11.
Bull Math Biol ; 82(9): 114, 2020 08 20.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-725459

ABSTRACT

There is continued uncertainty in how long it takes a person infected by the COVID-19 virus to become infectious. In this paper, we quantify how this uncertainty affects estimates of the basic replication number [Formula: see text], and thus estimates of the fraction of the population that would become infected in the absence of effective interventions. The analysis is general, and applies to all SEIR-based models, not only those associated with COVID-19. We find that when modeling a rapidly spreading epidemic, seemingly minor differences in how latency is treated can lead to vastly different estimates of [Formula: see text]. We also derive a simple formula relating the replication number to the fraction of the population that is eventually infected. This formula is robust and applies to all compartmental models whose parameters do not depend on time.


Subject(s)
Basic Reproduction Number/statistics & numerical data , Betacoronavirus , Coronavirus Infections/transmission , Models, Biological , Pneumonia, Viral/transmission , Asymptomatic Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control , Humans , Immunity, Herd , Mathematical Concepts , Pandemics/prevention & control , Pandemics/statistics & numerical data , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control , Time Factors , Uncertainty
12.
J Med Internet Res ; 22(8): e21413, 2020 08 18.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-723432

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: In Brazil, a substantial number of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases and deaths have been reported. It has become the second most affected country worldwide, as of June 9, 2020. Official Brazilian government sources present contradictory data on the impact of the disease; thus, it is possible that the actual number of infected individuals and deaths in Brazil is far larger than those officially reported. It is very likely that the actual spread of the disease has been underestimated. OBJECTIVE: This study investigates the underreporting of cases and deaths related to COVID-19 in the most affected cities in Brazil, based on public data available from official Brazilian government internet portals, to identify the actual impact of the pandemic. METHODS: We used data from historical deaths due to respiratory problems and other natural causes from two public portals: DATASUS (Department of Informatics of the Unified Healthcare System) (2010-2018) and the Brazilian Transparency Portal of Civil Registry (2019-2020). These data were used to build time-series models (modular regressions) to predict the expected mortality patterns for 2020. The forecasts were used to estimate the possible number of deaths that were incorrectly registered during the pandemic and posted on government internet portals in the most affected cities in the country. RESULTS: Our model found a significant difference between the real and expected values. The number of deaths due to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) was considerably higher in all cities, with increases between 493% and 5820%. This sudden increase may be associated with errors in reporting. An average underreporting of 40.68% (range 25.9%-62.7%) is estimated for COVID-19-related deaths. CONCLUSIONS: The significant rates of underreporting of deaths analyzed in our study demonstrate that officially released numbers are much lower than actual numbers, making it impossible for the authorities to implement a more effective pandemic response. Based on analyses carried out using different fatality rates, it can be inferred that Brazil's epidemic is worsening, and the actual number of infectees could already be between 1 to 5.4 million.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections/mortality , Coronavirus Infections/transmission , Federal Government , Internet , Pneumonia, Viral/mortality , Pneumonia, Viral/transmission , Brazil/epidemiology , Forecasting , Humans , Pandemics/statistics & numerical data , Reproducibility of Results , Uncertainty
13.
Child Adolesc Ment Health ; 25(3): 169-170, 2020 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-722321

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 pandemic is a 'perfect storm' for the mental health of young people, because of exposure to known risk factors for psychopathology and lack of support from the infrastructures that are normally in place to ensure safety and provide support. However, it is yet unclear if this 'perfect storm' will flood the Child & Adolescent Mental Health Services. The early, normative emotional responses observed may not lead to enduring psychopathology in most young people. Nevertheless, a minority of young people may show complex presentations, particularly in relation to bereavement. As epidemiology and clinical practice will reveal the actual needs of young people, the hope is that we will find the focus and determination to build new solutions to promote young people's mental health.


Subject(s)
Adolescent Health , Child Health , Coronavirus Infections , Mental Health , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral , Adolescent , Betacoronavirus , Child , Humans , Mental Health Services , Risk Factors , Social Isolation , Uncertainty
14.
Science ; 369(6505): 780, 2020 08 14.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-721909
15.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 117(35): 21201-21208, 2020 09 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-714201

ABSTRACT

We analyze the adoption of nonpharmaceutical interventions in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries during the early phase of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Given the complexity associated with pandemic decisions, governments are faced with the dilemma of how to act quickly when their core decision-making processes are based on deliberations balancing political considerations. Our findings show that, in times of severe crisis, governments follow the lead of others and base their decisions on what other countries do. Governments in countries with a stronger democratic structure are slower to react in the face of the pandemic but are more sensitive to the influence of other countries. We provide insights for research on international policy diffusion and research on the political consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.


Subject(s)
Communicable Disease Control/methods , Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control , Government , Health Policy , Pandemics/prevention & control , Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control , Betacoronavirus , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Decision Making , Humans , Internationality , Models, Theoretical , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Time Factors , Uncertainty
16.
Child Adolesc Ment Health ; 25(3): 187-188, 2020 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-714026

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 pandemic is having a pervasive effect on young people's mental health and well-being, giving rise to feelings of deep uncertainty and lack of control. Inspired by Amartya Sen's capabilities framework, we argue that building capacity and creating opportunities for community and civic engagement during this time will help young people gain agency and well-being. We highlight two key areas for participatory engagement: coproduction of research, and peer-led interventions. Providing capabilities for young people's agency not only builds personal resilience, but also strengthens the quality of our research, interventions and overall response to the global health crisis.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections , Mental Health , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral , Psychology, Adolescent , Resilience, Psychological , Uncertainty , Adolescent , Betacoronavirus , Child , Community Participation , Humans , Psychology, Child
SELECTION OF CITATIONS
SEARCH DETAIL