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1.
Int J Environ Res Public Health ; 19(1)2022 01 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1613765

ABSTRACT

COVID-19 has caused a global pandemic with considerable impact. Studies have examined the influence of socioeconomic status and air pollution on COVID-19 risk but in low detail. This study seeks to further elucidate the nuances of socioeconomic status, as defined by the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), air pollution, and their relationship. We examined the effect of IMD and air pollution on the likelihood of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 among 66,732 UKB participants tested for SARS-CoV-2 from 16 March 2020 through 16 March 2021. Logistic regression was performed controlling for age, sex, ancestry and IMD or air pollution in the respective models. IMD and its sub-scores were significantly associated with increased risk of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2. All particulate matter less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5), nitrogen oxide (NOx), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) levels were associated with increased likelihood of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2. Measures of green space and natural environment around participants' homes were associated with reduced likelihood of SARS-CoV-2. Socioeconomic status and air pollution have independent effects on the risk of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2. Green space and natural environment space in the proximity of people's homes may mediate the effect of air pollution on the risk of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2.


Subject(s)
Air Pollutants , Air Pollution , COVID-19 , Air Pollutants/analysis , Air Pollutants/toxicity , Air Pollution/adverse effects , Air Pollution/analysis , Biological Specimen Banks , Humans , Particulate Matter/analysis , Particulate Matter/toxicity , SARS-CoV-2 , United Kingdom/epidemiology
2.
BMJ Open ; 12(1): e053094, 2022 01 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1604769

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: COVID-19 is having a disproportionate impact on Black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) groups and women. Concern over direct and indirect effects may also impact on sleep. We explore the levels and social determinants of self-reported sleep loss among the UK population during the pandemic, focusing on ethnic and gender disparities. SETTING: This prospective longitudinal study analysed data from seven waves of the Understanding Society: COVID-19 Study collected from April 2020 to January 2021 linked to prepandemic data from the 2019 mainstage interviews, providing baseline information about the respondents prior to the pandemic. PARTICIPANTS: The analytical sample included 8163 respondents aged 16 and above who took part in all seven waves with full information on sleep loss, defined as experiencing 'rather more' or 'much more' than usual sleep loss due to worry, providing 57 141 observations. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Self-reported sleep loss. Mixed-effects regression models were fitted to consider within-individual and between-individual differences. RESULTS: Women were more likely to report sleep loss than men (OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.9 to 2.4) over the 10-month period. Being female, having young children, perceived financial difficulties and COVID-19 symptoms were all predictive of sleep loss. Once these covariates were controlled for, the bivariate relationship between ethnicity and sleep loss (1.4, 95% CI 1.6 to 2.4) was reversed (0.7, 95% CI 0.5 to 0.8). Moreover, the strength of the association between gender and ethnicity and the risk of sleep loss varied over time, being weaker among women in July (0.6, 95% CI 0.5 to 0.7), September (0.7, 95% CI 0.6 to 0.8), November (0.8, 95% CI 0.7 to 1.0) and January 2021 (0.8, 95% CI 0.7 to 0.9) compared with April 2020, but positively stronger among BAME individuals in May (1.4, 95% CI 1.0 to 2.1), weaker only in September (0.7, 95% CI 0.5 to 1.0). CONCLUSIONS: The pandemic has widened sleep deprivation disparities, with women with young children, COVID-19 infection and BAME individuals experiencing sleep loss, which may adversely affect their mental and physical health.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Pandemics , Child , Child, Preschool , Communicable Disease Control , Female , Humans , Longitudinal Studies , Male , Prospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2 , Sleep , United Kingdom/epidemiology
3.
PLoS Med ; 19(1): e1003870, 2022 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1608093

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Excess mortality captures the total effect of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on mortality and is not affected by misspecification of cause of death. We aimed to describe how health and demographic factors were associated with excess mortality during, compared to before, the pandemic. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analysed a time series dataset including 9,635,613 adults (≥40 years old) registered at United Kingdom general practices contributing to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. We extracted weekly numbers of deaths and numbers at risk between March 2015 and July 2020, stratified by individual-level factors. Excess mortality during Wave 1 of the UK pandemic (5 March to 27 May 2020) compared to the prepandemic period was estimated using seasonally adjusted negative binomial regression models. Relative rates (RRs) of death for a range of factors were estimated before and during Wave 1 by including interaction terms. We found that all-cause mortality increased by 43% (95% CI 40% to 47%) during Wave 1 compared with prepandemic. Changes to the RR of death associated with most sociodemographic and clinical characteristics were small during Wave 1 compared with prepandemic. However, the mortality RR associated with dementia markedly increased (RR for dementia versus no dementia prepandemic: 3.5, 95% CI 3.4 to 3.5; RR during Wave 1: 5.1, 4.9 to 5.3); a similar pattern was seen for learning disabilities (RR prepandemic: 3.6, 3.4 to 3.5; during Wave 1: 4.8, 4.4 to 5.3), for black or South Asian ethnicity compared to white, and for London compared to other regions. Relative risks for morbidities were stable in multiple sensitivity analyses. However, a limitation of the study is that we cannot assume that the risks observed during Wave 1 would apply to other waves due to changes in population behaviour, virus transmission, and risk perception. CONCLUSIONS: The first wave of the UK COVID-19 pandemic appeared to amplify baseline mortality risk to approximately the same relative degree for most population subgroups. However, disproportionate increases in mortality were seen for those with dementia, learning disabilities, non-white ethnicity, or living in London.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/mortality , Mortality/trends , Adult , Aged , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Models, Statistical , Pandemics , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity , Time Factors , United Kingdom/epidemiology
8.
BMJ ; 375: e065834, 2021 12 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1599220

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: To describe the rates for consulting a general practitioner (GP) for sequelae after acute covid-19 in patients admitted to hospital with covid-19 and those managed in the community, and to determine how the rates change over time for patients in the community and after vaccination for covid-19. DESIGN: Population based study. SETTING: 1392 general practices in England contributing to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum database. PARTICIPANTS: 456 002 patients with a diagnosis of covid-19 between 1 August 2020 and 14 February 2021 (44.7% men; median age 61 years), admitted to hospital within two weeks of diagnosis or managed in the community, and followed-up for a maximum of 9.2 months. A negative control group included individuals without covid-19 (n=38 511) and patients with influenza before the pandemic (n=21 803). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Comparison of rates for consulting a GP for new symptoms, diseases, prescriptions, and healthcare use in individuals admitted to hospital and those managed in the community, separately, before and after covid-19 infection, using Cox regression and negative binomial regression for healthcare use. The analysis was repeated for the negative control and influenza cohorts. In individuals in the community, outcomes were also described over time after a diagnosis of covid-19, and compared before and after vaccination for individuals who were symptomatic after covid-19 infection, using negative binomial regression. RESULTS: Relative to the negative control and influenza cohorts, patients in the community (n=437 943) had significantly higher GP consultation rates for multiple sequelae, and the most common were loss of smell or taste, or both (adjusted hazard ratio 5.28, 95% confidence interval 3.89 to 7.17, P<0.001); venous thromboembolism (3.35, 2.87 to 3.91, P<0.001); lung fibrosis (2.41, 1.37 to 4.25, P=0.002), and muscle pain (1.89, 1.63 to 2.20, P<0.001); and also for healthcare use after a diagnosis of covid-19 compared with 12 months before infection. For absolute proportions, the most common outcomes ≥4 weeks after a covid-19 diagnosis in patients in the community were joint pain (2.5%), anxiety (1.2%), and prescriptions for non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (1.2%). Patients admitted to hospital (n=18 059) also had significantly higher GP consultation rates for multiple sequelae, most commonly for venous thromboembolism (16.21, 11.28 to 23.31, P<0.001), nausea (4.64, 2.24 to 9.21, P<0.001), prescriptions for paracetamol (3.68, 2.86 to 4.74, P<0.001), renal failure (3.42, 2.67 to 4.38, P<0.001), and healthcare use after a covid-19 diagnosis compared with 12 months before infection. For absolute proportions, the most common outcomes ≥4 weeks after a covid-19 diagnosis in patients admitted to hospital were venous thromboembolism (3.5%), joint pain (2.7%), and breathlessness (2.8%). In patients in the community, anxiety and depression, abdominal pain, diarrhoea, general pain, nausea, chest tightness, and tinnitus persisted throughout follow-up. GP consultation rates were reduced for all symptoms, prescriptions, and healthcare use, except for neuropathic pain, cognitive impairment, strong opiates, and paracetamol use in patients in the community after the first vaccination dose for covid-19 relative to before vaccination. GP consultation rates were also reduced for ischaemic heart disease, asthma, and gastro-oesophageal disease. CONCLUSIONS: GP consultation rates for sequelae after acute covid-19 infection differed between patients with covid-19 who were admitted to hospital and those managed in the community. For individuals in the community, rates of some sequelae decreased over time but those for others, such as anxiety and depression, persisted. Rates of some outcomes decreased after vaccination in this group.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/complications , Community Health Services , General Practitioners , Hospitalization , Office Visits/statistics & numerical data , SARS-CoV-2 , Venous Thromboembolism/diagnosis , COVID-19/epidemiology , Female , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Pandemics , Proportional Hazards Models , State Medicine , United Kingdom/epidemiology , Venous Thromboembolism/etiology
11.
Nat Microbiol ; 7(1): 97-107, 2022 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1596437

ABSTRACT

Global and national surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology is mostly based on targeted schemes focused on testing individuals with symptoms. These tested groups are often unrepresentative of the wider population and exhibit test positivity rates that are biased upwards compared with the true population prevalence. Such data are routinely used to infer infection prevalence and the effective reproduction number, Rt, which affects public health policy. Here, we describe a causal framework that provides debiased fine-scale spatiotemporal estimates by combining targeted test counts with data from a randomized surveillance study in the United Kingdom called REACT. Our probabilistic model includes a bias parameter that captures the increased probability of an infected individual being tested, relative to a non-infected individual, and transforms observed test counts to debiased estimates of the true underlying local prevalence and Rt. We validated our approach on held-out REACT data over a 7-month period. Furthermore, our local estimates of Rt are indicative of 1-week- and 2-week-ahead changes in SARS-CoV-2-positive case numbers. We also observed increases in estimated local prevalence and Rt that reflect the spread of the Alpha and Delta variants. Our results illustrate how randomized surveys can augment targeted testing to improve statistical accuracy in monitoring the spread of emerging and ongoing infectious disease.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , Models, Statistical , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , Basic Reproduction Number , Bias , COVID-19/diagnosis , COVID-19/transmission , COVID-19 Testing/statistics & numerical data , Forecasting , Humans , Prevalence , Reproducibility of Results , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , Spatio-Temporal Analysis , United Kingdom/epidemiology
13.
BMC Pregnancy Childbirth ; 21(1): 840, 2021 Dec 22.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1582095

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic poses an unprecedented risk to the global population. Maternity care in the UK was subject to many iterations of guidance on how best to reconfigure services to keep women, their families and babies, and healthcare professionals safe. Parents who experience a pregnancy loss or perinatal death require particular care and support. PUDDLES is an international collaboration investigating the experiences of recently bereaved parents who suffered a late miscarriage, stillbirth, or neonatal death during the global COVID-19 pandemic, in seven countries. In this study, we aim to present early findings from qualitative work undertaken with recently bereaved parents in the United Kingdom about how access to healthcare and support services was negotiated during the pandemic. METHODS: In-depth semi-structured interviews were undertaken with parents (N = 24) who had suffered a late miscarriage (n = 5; all mothers), stillbirth (n = 16; 13 mothers, 1 father, 1 joint interview involving both parents), or neonatal death (n = 3; all mothers). Data were analysed using a template analysis with the aim of investigating bereaved parents' access to services, care, and networks of support, during the pandemic after their bereavement. RESULTS: All parents had experience of utilising reconfigured maternity and/or neonatal, and bereavement care services during the pandemic. The themes utilised in the template analysis were: 1) The Shock & Confusion Associated with Necessary Restrictions to Daily Life; 2) Fragmented Care and Far Away Families; 3) Keeping Safe by Staying Away; and 4) Impersonal Care and Support Through a Screen. Results suggest access to maternity, neonatal, and bereavement care services were all significantly reduced, and parents' experiences were notably affected by service reconfigurations. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings, whilst preliminary, are important to document now, to help inform care and service provision as the pandemic continues and to provide learning for ongoing and future health system shocks. We draw conclusions on how to enable development of safe and appropriate services during this pandemic and any future health crises, to best support parents who experience a pregnancy loss or whose babies die.


Subject(s)
Abortion, Spontaneous/psychology , Bereavement , COVID-19/psychology , Grief , Parents/psychology , Perinatal Death , Stillbirth/psychology , Continuity of Patient Care/standards , Female , Health Services Accessibility/standards , Humans , Infant, Newborn , Male , Pregnancy , Preliminary Data , Psychosocial Support Systems , Qualitative Research , Quarantine/psychology , SARS-CoV-2 , United Kingdom/epidemiology
14.
Rev Med Virol ; 31(6): e2231, 2021 11.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1574317

ABSTRACT

The Spike protein is the target of both antibody-based therapeutics (convalescent plasma, polyclonal serum, monoclonal antibodies) and vaccines. Mutations in Spike could affect efficacy of those treatments. Hence, monitoring of mutations is necessary to forecast and readapt the inventory of therapeutics. Different phylogenetic nomenclatures have been used for the currently circulating SARS-CoV-2 clades. The Spike protein has different hotspots of mutation and deletion, the most dangerous for immune escape being the ones within the receptor binding domain (RBD), such as K417N/T, N439K, L452R, Y453F, S477N, E484K, and N501Y. Convergent evolution has led to different combinations of mutations among different clades. In this review we focus on the main variants of concern, that is, the so-called UK (B.1.1.7), South African (B.1.351) and Brazilian (P.1) strains.


Subject(s)
Antibodies, Monoclonal/therapeutic use , Antibodies, Neutralizing/therapeutic use , COVID-19/therapy , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus/genetics , Antibodies, Monoclonal/chemistry , Antibodies, Monoclonal/metabolism , Antibodies, Neutralizing/chemistry , Antibodies, Neutralizing/metabolism , Antibodies, Viral/chemistry , Antibodies, Viral/metabolism , Antibodies, Viral/therapeutic use , Brazil/epidemiology , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/immunology , COVID-19/virology , COVID-19 Vaccines/administration & dosage , Gene Expression , Humans , Immune Evasion , Immunization, Passive/methods , Mutation , Phylogeny , Protein Binding , Risk Assessment , SARS-CoV-2/classification , SARS-CoV-2/drug effects , SARS-CoV-2/immunology , South Africa/epidemiology , Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus/immunology , United Kingdom/epidemiology
15.
PLoS One ; 16(3): e0248387, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1573672

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: The study aims to investigate GPs' experiences of how UK COVID-19 policies have affected the management and safety of complex elderly patients, who suffer from multimorbidity, at the primary care level in North West London (NWL). DESIGN: This is a service evaluation adopting a qualitative approach. SETTING: Individual semi-structured interviews were conducted between 6 and 22 May 2020, 2 months after the introduction of the UK COVID-19 Action Plan, allowing GPs to adapt to the new changes and reflect on their impact. PARTICIPANTS: Fourteen GPs working in NWL were interviewed, until data saturation was reached. OUTCOME MEASURES: The impact of COVID-19 policies on the management and safety of complex elderly patients in primary care from the GPs' perspective. RESULTS: Participants' average experience was fourteen years working in primary care for the NHS. They stated that COVID-19 policies have affected primary care at three levels, patients' behaviour, work conditions, and clinical practice. GPs reflected on the impact through five major themes; four of which have been adapted from the Safety Attitudes Questionnaire (SAQ) framework, changes in primary care (at the three levels mentioned above), involvement of GPs in policy making, communication and coordination (with patients and in between medical teams), stressors and worries; in addition to a fifth theme to conclude the GPs' suggestions for improvement (either proposed mitigation strategies, or existing actions that showed relative success). A participant used an expression of "infodemic" to describe the GPs' everyday pressure of receiving new policy updates with their subsequent changes in practice. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all levels of the health system in the UK, particularly primary care. Based on the GPs' perspective in NWL, changes to practice have offered opportunities to maintain safe healthcare as well as possible drawbacks that should be of concern.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/prevention & control , General Practitioners/psychology , Patient Safety , Primary Health Care , Aged , Attitude of Health Personnel , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/pathology , COVID-19/virology , Health Policy , Humans , Interviews as Topic , Pandemics , Policy Making , Qualitative Research , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , United Kingdom/epidemiology
16.
J Med Internet Res ; 23(2): e22197, 2021 02 25.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1573649

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: To control the COVID-19 pandemic, people should adopt protective behaviors at home (self-isolation, social distancing, putting shopping and packages aside, wearing face coverings, cleaning and disinfecting, and handwashing). There is currently limited support to help individuals conduct these behaviors. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to report current household infection control behaviors in the United Kingdom and examine how they might be improved. METHODS: This was a pragmatic cross-sectional observational study of anonymous participant data from Germ Defence between May 6-24, 2020. Germ Defence is an open-access fully automated website providing behavioral advice for infection control within households. A total of 28,285 users sought advice from four website pathways based on household status (advice to protect themselves generally, to protect others if the user was showing symptoms, to protect themselves if household members were showing symptoms, and to protect a household member who is at high risk). Users reported current infection control behaviors within the home and intentions to change these behaviors. RESULTS: Current behaviors varied across all infection control measures but were between sometimes (face covering: mean 1.61, SD 1.19; social distancing: mean 2.40, SD 1.22; isolating: mean 2.78, SD 1.29; putting packages and shopping aside: mean 2.75, SD 1.55) and quite often (cleaning and disinfecting: mean 3.17, SD 1.18), except for handwashing (very often: mean 4.00, SD 1.03). Behaviors were similar regardless of the website pathway used. After using Germ Defence, users recorded intentions to improve infection control behavior across all website pathways and for all behaviors (overall average infection control score mean difference 0.30, 95% CI 0.29-0.31). CONCLUSIONS: Self-reported infection control behaviors other than handwashing are lower than is optimal for infection prevention, although handwashing is much higher. Advice using behavior change techniques in Germ Defence led to intentions to improve these behaviors. Promoting Germ Defence within national and local public health and primary care guidance could reduce COVID-19 transmission.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19/transmission , Infection Control/methods , Internet-Based Intervention , COVID-19/epidemiology , Cross-Sectional Studies , Disease Transmission, Infectious/prevention & control , Family Characteristics , Health Behavior , Humans , SARS-CoV-2 , Surveys and Questionnaires , United Kingdom/epidemiology
17.
Addict Behav ; 126: 107200, 2022 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1575350

ABSTRACT

International evidence indicates that currently serving and former military personnel may be at heightened vulnerability to problem gambling. The aim of the present study was to undertake the first survey of gambling experience and potential problems among serving United Kingdom Royal Air Force (RAF) personnel. Our objectives were to survey the frequency of gambling problems, types of gambling activities, examine mental health, alcohol use, and COVID-19-related associations with gambling, and identify potential risk factors for problem gambling among RAF personnel. A cross-sectional online survey was distributed to all serving RAF personnel in January 2021 and the final dataset consisted of n = 2119 responses. The Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI) identified gambling severity, the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) assessed depression, the Generalized Anxiety Disorder assessment (GAD-7) measured anxiety, and alcohol use was assessed with the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT). Questions relating to COVID-19 asked whether the pandemic had impacted one's gambling, mental health, and alcohol use. Findings indicated that 12.5% of personnel reported gambling problems, which included 8.0% with PGSI scores indicating low-risk gambling (1-2), 2.9% with moderate-risk gambling scores (3-4), and 1.6% with scores indicating problem gambling (≥8). Most personnel had no symptoms of depression or anxiety, and most experienced lower risk drinking levels. The likelihood of any gambling problem (PGSI ≥ 1) in RAF personnel was associated with age (18-24 years old), male gender, and Non-Commissioned ranks. Most participants reported a deterioration in their mental health due to COVID-19 and increased risky gambling. These findings indicate that gambling problems and associated harms are significant concerns for serving RAF personnel.


Subject(s)
Alcoholism , COVID-19 , Gambling , Military Personnel , Adolescent , Adult , Cross-Sectional Studies , Gambling/epidemiology , Humans , Male , SARS-CoV-2 , United Kingdom/epidemiology , Young Adult
18.
PLoS One ; 16(12): e0261229, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1571989

ABSTRACT

In-depth study of the entire SARS-CoV-2 genome has uncovered many mutations, which have replaced the lineage that characterized the first wave of infections all around the world. In December 2020, the outbreak of variant of concern (VOC) 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7) in the United Kingdom defined a turning point during the pandemic, immediately posing a worldwide threat on the Covid-19 vaccination campaign. Here, we reported the evolution of B.1.1.7 lineage-related infections, analyzing samples collected from January 1st 2021, until April 15th 2021, in Friuli Venezia Giulia, a northeastern region of Italy. A cohort of 1508 nasopharyngeal swabs was analyzed by High Resolution Melting (HRM) and 479 randomly selected samples underwent Next Generation Sequencing analysis (NGS), uncovering a steady and continuous accumulation of B.1.1.7 lineage-related specimens, joined by sporadic cases of other known lineages (i.e. harboring the Spike glycoprotein p.E484K mutation). All the SARS-CoV-2 genome has been analyzed in order to highlight all the rare mutations that may eventually result in a new variant of interest. This work suggests that a thorough monitoring of the SARS-CoV-2 genome by NGS is essential to contain any new variant that could jeopardize all the efforts that have been made so far to resolve the emergence of the pandemic.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/diagnosis , Nasopharynx/virology , SARS-CoV-2/classification , Sequence Analysis, RNA/methods , COVID-19/epidemiology , Disease Outbreaks , High-Throughput Nucleotide Sequencing , Humans , Italy/epidemiology , Phylogeny , Phylogeography , RNA, Viral/genetics , SARS-CoV-2/genetics , United Kingdom/epidemiology
19.
BMJ Open ; 11(12): e053352, 2021 12 13.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1571203

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Susceptibility of patients with cancer to COVID-19 pneumonitis has been variable. We aim to quantify the risk of hospitalisation in patients with active cancer and use a machine learning algorithm (MLA) and traditional statistics to predict clinical outcomes and mortality. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: A single UK district general hospital. PARTICIPANTS: Data on total hospital admissions between March 2018 and June 2020, all active cancer diagnoses between March 2019 and June 2020 and clinical parameters of COVID-19-positive admissions between March 2020 and June 2020 were collected. 526 COVID-19 admissions without an active cancer diagnosis were compared with 87 COVID-19 admissions with an active cancer diagnosis. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: 30-day and 90-day post-COVID-19 survival. RESULTS: In total, 613 patients were enrolled with male to female ratio of 1:6 and median age of 77 years. The estimated infection rate of COVID-19 was 87 of 22 729 (0.4%) in the patients with cancer and 526 of 404 379 (0.1%) in the population without cancer (OR of being hospitalised with COVID-19 if having cancer is 2.942671 (95% CI: 2.344522 to 3.693425); p<0.001). Survival was reduced in patients with cancer with COVID-19 at 90 days. R-Studio software determined the association between cancer status, COVID-19 and 90-day survival against variables using MLA. Multivariate analysis showed increases in age (OR 1.039 (95% CI: 1.020 to 1.057), p<0.001), urea (OR 1.005 (95% CI: 1.002 to 1.007), p<0.001) and C reactive protein (CRP) (OR 1.065 (95% CI: 1.016 to 1.116), p<0.008) are associated with greater 30-day and 90-day mortality. The MLA model examined the contribution of predictive variables for 90-day survival (area under the curve: 0.749); with transplant patients, age, male gender and diabetes mellitus being predictors of greater mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Active cancer diagnosis has a threefold increase in risk of hospitalisation with COVID-19. Increased age, urea and CRP predict mortality in patients with cancer. MLA complements traditional statistical analysis in identifying prognostic variables for outcomes of COVID-19 infection in patients with cancer. This study provides proof of concept for MLA in risk prediction for COVID-19 in patients with cancer and should inform a redesign of cancer services to ensure safe delivery of cancer care.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Neoplasms , Aged , Female , Hospitalization , Humans , Male , Neoplasms/epidemiology , Retrospective Studies , SARS-CoV-2 , United Kingdom/epidemiology
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