PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The purpose of the review is to summarize recent advances in understanding the origins, drivers and clinical context of zoonotic disease epidemics and pandemics. In addition, we aimed to highlight the role of clinicians in identifying sentinel cases of zoonotic disease outbreaks. RECENT FINDINGS: The majority of emerging infectious disease events over recent decades, including the COVID-19 pandemic, have been caused by zoonotic viruses and bacteria. In particular, coronaviruses, haemorrhagic fever viruses, arboviruses and influenza A viruses have caused significant epidemics globally. There have been recent advances in understanding the origins and drivers of zoonotic epidemics, yet there are gaps in diagnostic capacity and clinical training about zoonoses. SUMMARY: Identifying the origins of zoonotic pathogens, understanding factors influencing disease transmission and improving the diagnostic capacity of clinicians will be crucial to early detection and prevention of further epidemics of zoonoses.
Subject(s)Communicable Diseases, Emerging/epidemiology , Pandemics/prevention & control , Zoonoses/epidemiology , Animals , COVID-19/epidemiology , Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control , Humans , SARS-CoV-2/pathogenicity
Subject(s)COVID-19 , Dog Diseases , Animals , Humans , Dogs , SARS-CoV-2 , Zoonoses/epidemiology , Risk Factors , Pets
Subject(s)Monkeypox , Animals , Humans , Monkeypox/epidemiology , Pakistan , Zoonoses/epidemiology , Disease Outbreaks , Government
SARS-CoV-2 can infect domestic animals such as cats and dogs. The zoonotic origin of the disease requires surveillance on animals. Seroprevalence studies are useful tools for detecting previous exposure because the short period of virus shedding in animals makes detection of the virus difficult. We report on an extensive serosurvey on pets in Spain that covered 23 months. We included animals with exposure to SARS-CoV-2-infected persons, random animals, and stray animals in the study. We also evaluated epidemiologic variables such as human accumulated incidence and spatial location. We detected neutralizing antibodies in 3.59% of animals and showed a correlation between COVID-19 incidence in humans and positivity to antibody detection in pets. This study shows that more pets were infected with SARS-CoV-2 than in previous reports based on molecular research, and the findings highlight the need to establish preventive measures to avoid reverse zoonosis events.
Subject(s)COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Animals , Humans , Dogs , Cats , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/veterinary , Spain/epidemiology , Seroepidemiologic Studies , Zoonoses/epidemiology , Pets
The pathogens that cause most emerging infectious diseases in humans originate in animals, particularly wildlife, and then spill over into humans. The accelerating frequency with which humans and domestic animals encounter wildlife because of activities such as land-use change, animal husbandry, and markets and trade in live wildlife has created growing opportunities for pathogen spillover. The risk of pathogen spillover and early disease spread among domestic animals and humans, however, can be reduced by stopping the clearing and degradation of tropical and subtropical forests, improving health and economic security of communities living in emerging infectious disease hotspots, enhancing biosecurity in animal husbandry, shutting down or strictly regulating wildlife markets and trade, and expanding pathogen surveillance. We summarize expert opinions on how to implement these goals to prevent outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics.
Subject(s)Communicable Diseases, Emerging , Zoonoses , Animals , Humans , Zoonoses/epidemiology , Pandemics , Animals, Wild , Animals, Domestic , Communicable Diseases, Emerging/epidemiology , Disease Outbreaks
Although ideas about preventive actions for pandemics have been advanced during the COVID-19 crisis, there has been little consideration for how they can be operationalised through governance structures within the context of the wildlife trade for human consumption. To date, pandemic governance has mostly focused on outbreak surveillance, containment, and response rather than on avoiding zoonotic spillovers in the first place. However, given the acceleration of globalisation, a paradigm shift towards prevention of zoonotic spillovers is warranted as containment of outbreaks becomes unfeasible. Here, we consider the current institutional landscape for pandemic prevention in light of ongoing negotiations of a so-called pandemic treaty and how prevention of zoonotic spillovers from the wildlife trade for human consumption could be incorporated. We argue that such an institutional arrangement should be explicit about zoonotic spillover prevention and focus on improving coordination across four policy domains, namely public health, biodiversity conservation, food security, and trade. We posit that this pandemic treaty should include four interacting goals in relation to prevention of zoonotic spillovers from the wildlife trade for human consumption: risk understanding, risk assessment, risk reduction, and enabling funding. Despite the need to keep political attention on addressing the current pandemic, society cannot afford to miss the opportunity of the current crisis to encourage institution building for preventing future pandemics.
Subject(s)COVID-19 , Animals , Humans , COVID-19/epidemiology , Pandemics/prevention & control , Wildlife Trade , Zoonoses/epidemiology , Public Health
The unprecedented economic and health impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have shown the global necessity of mitigating the underlying drivers of zoonotic spillover events, which occur at the human-wildlife and domesticated animal interface. Spillover events are associated to varying degrees with high habitat fragmentation, biodiversity loss through land use change, high livestock densities, agricultural inputs, and wildlife hunting-all facets of food systems. As such, the structure and characteristics of food systems can be considered key determinants of modern pandemic risks. This means that emerging infectious diseases should be more explicitly addressed in the discourse of food systems to mitigate the likelihood and impacts of spillover events. Here, we adopt a scenario framework to highlight the many connections among food systems, zoonotic diseases, and sustainability. We identify two overarching dimensions: the extent of land use for food production and the agricultural practices employed that shape four archetypal food systems, each with a distinct risk profile with respect to zoonotic spillovers and differing dimensions of sustainability. Prophylactic measures to curb the emergence of zoonotic diseases are therefore closely linked to diets and food policies. Future research directions should explore more closely how they impact the risk of spillover events.
Subject(s)COVID-19 , Communicable Diseases, Emerging , Animals , Humans , Pandemics , Zoonoses/epidemiology , Communicable Diseases, Emerging/epidemiology , Animals, Wild
After more than 2 years of intensive investigation, the direct ancestors of the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) remain unidentified. Molecular epidemiology strongly supports a timeline marked by multiple, independent zoonoses in late 2019 (Pekar et al, 2022) solidifying the consensus hypothesis that close relatives of SARS-CoV-2 with high zoonotic potential were naturally circulating prior to the start of the pandemic (Andersen et al, 2020). Understanding where and when these ancestors acquired the genomic features that resulted in a virus with epidemic potential could enable the identification and mitigation of future pandemic viruses, even before the first human infection.
Subject(s)COVID-19 , Viruses , Animals , Humans , SARS-CoV-2 , Zoonoses/epidemiology , Viruses/genetics
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a profound impact on human health, economic well-being, and societal function. It is essential that we use this generational experience to better understand the processes that underpin the emergence of COVID-19 and other zoonotic diseases. Herein, I review the mechanisms that determine why and how viruses emerge in new hosts, as well as the barriers to this process. I show that traditional studies of virus emergence have an inherent anthropocentric bias, with disease in humans considered the inevitable outcome of virus emergence, when in reality viruses are integral components of a global ecosystem characterized by continual host jumping with humans also transmitting their viruses to other animals. I illustrate these points using coronaviruses, including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, as a case study. I also outline the potential steps that can be followed to help mitigate and prevent future pandemics, with combating climate change a central component.
Subject(s)COVID-19 , Viruses , Animals , Ecosystem , Humans , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2 , Zoonoses/epidemiology
Subject(s)COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Animals , Humans , Animals, Wild , Zoonoses/epidemiology
The development of new zoonotic diseases such as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and monkeypox that can cause epidemics and high mortality rates have significantly threatened global health security. However, the increasing number of people with no immunity to poxvirus because of the end of the smallpox vaccination programme has created a vulnerable population for the monkeypox outbreak. On 23 July 2022, it was announced that the World Health Organization's director-general has determined that the multicountry outbreak of monkeypox constitutes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. The monkeypox virus is an orthopoxvirus that causes a disease with symptoms similar to smallpox but less severe. Many unanswered questions remain regarding monkeypox's pathogenesis, transmission and host reservoir. There is currently no evidence that transmission by individuals can sustain zoonotic infections during human-to-human transmissions; the continued emergence of these pathogens highlights the interconnectedness of animals and humans. The increasing number of monkeypox cases outside the endemic region has highlighted the need for effective global capacity building to prevent the spread of the disease and its impact on global health security. The priority now is to stop the spread of the disease and protect frontline healthcare workers and the most vulnerable individuals. This article aims to comprehensively analyse the various aspects of the transmission and epidemiology of monkeypox. It also explores possible diagnostic techniques, therapeutics and prevention strategies. A key recommendation is that primary care and public health professionals are expected to increase their efforts to be vigilant and contain any potential outbreaks.
Subject(s)COVID-19 , Monkeypox , Smallpox , Variola virus , Animals , Humans , Monkeypox/epidemiology , Monkeypox/prevention & control , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/prevention & control , Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control , Monkeypox virus , Zoonoses/epidemiology , Zoonoses/prevention & control
As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as other outbreaks, such as SARS and Ebola, bats are recognized as a critical species for mediating zoonotic infectious disease spillover events. While there is a growing concern of increased antimicrobial resistance (AMR) globally during this pandemic, knowledge of AMR circulating between bats and humans is limited. In this paper, we have reviewed the evidence of AMR in bats and discussed the planetary health aspect of AMR to elucidate how this is associated with the emergence, spread, and persistence of AMR at the human-animal interface. The presence of clinically significant resistant bacteria in bats and wildlife has important implications for zoonotic pandemic surveillance, disease transmission, and treatment modalities. We searched MEDLINE through PubMed and Google Scholar to retrieve relevant studies (n = 38) that provided data on resistant bacteria in bats prior to 30 September 2022. There is substantial variability in the results from studies measuring the prevalence of AMR based on geographic location, bat types, and time. We found all major groups of Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria in bats, which are resistant to commonly used antibiotics. The most alarming issue is that recent studies have increasingly identified clinically significant multi-drug resistant bacteria such as Methicillin Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), ESBL producing, and Colistin resistant Enterobacterales in samples from bats. This evidence of superbugs abundant in both humans and wild mammals, such as bats, could facilitate a greater understanding of which specific pathways of exposure should be targeted. We believe that these data will also facilitate future pandemic preparedness as well as global AMR containment during pandemic events and beyond.
Subject(s)COVID-19 , Chiroptera , Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus , Animals , Humans , Anti-Bacterial Agents/pharmacology , Pandemics , COVID-19/epidemiology , Drug Resistance, Bacterial , Gram-Negative Bacteria , Gram-Positive Bacteria , Zoonoses/epidemiology , Bacteria
Backyard farming with limited biosecurity creates a massive potential for zoonotic spillover. Cambodia, a developing nation in Southeast Asia, is a hub for emerging and endemic infectious diseases. Due to pandemic-induced job losses in the tourism sector, rumors suggest that many former Cambodian tour guides have turned to backyard farming as a source of income and food security. A cross-sectional study including 331 tour guides and 69 poultry farmers in Cambodia before and during the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic was conducted. Participants were administered a survey to assess food security, income, and general farming practices. Survey data were collected to evaluate the risk perceptions for avian influenza virus (AIV), antimicrobial resistance (AMR), and general biosecurity management implemented on these poultry farms. Overall, food security decreased for 80.1% of the tour guides during the COVID-19 pandemic. Approximately 21% of the tour guides interviewed used backyard poultry farming to supplement losses of income and food insecurity during the COVID-19 pandemic, with a significantly higher risk than for traditional poultry farmers. Agricultural intensification in Cambodia due to the COVID-19 pandemic has caused an influx of makeshift farms with limited biosecurity. Inadequate biosecurity measures in animal farms can facilitate spillover and contribute to future pandemics. Improved biosecurity and robust viral surveillance systems are critical for reducing the risk of spillover from backyard farms. IMPORTANCE While this study highlights COVID-19-associated changes in poultry production at a small scale in Cambodia, poultry production is expected to expand due to an increase in the global demand for poultry protein during the pandemic, changes in urbanization, and the reduction of the global pork supply caused by African swine fever (ASF). The global demand and surge in poultry products, combined with inadequate biosecurity methods, can lead to an increased risk of domestic animal and human spillovers of zoonotic pathogens such as avian influenza. Countries in regions of endemicity are often plagued by complex emergency situations (i.e., food insecurity and economic fallouts) that hinder efforts to effectively address the emergence (or reemergence) of zoonotic diseases. Thus, novel surveillance strategies for endemic and emerging infectious diseases require robust surveillance systems and biosecurity training programs to prevent future global pandemics.
Subject(s)African Swine Fever , COVID-19 , Influenza in Birds , Poultry Diseases , Humans , Animals , Swine , Influenza in Birds/epidemiology , Influenza in Birds/prevention & control , Pandemics/prevention & control , Cambodia/epidemiology , Farms , Biosecurity , African Swine Fever/epidemiology , Cross-Sectional Studies , Animal Husbandry/methods , COVID-19/epidemiology , Zoonoses/epidemiology , Zoonoses/prevention & control , Poultry
BACKGROUND: Babesiosis is a zoonosis caused by an intraerythrocytic protozoan of the genus Babesia and transmitted mainly by ticks of the Ixodes spp. complex. There is no comprehensive global incidence in the literature, although the United States, Europe and Asia are considered to be endemic areas. In Europe, the percentage of ticks infected with Babesia spp. ranges from 0.78% to 51.78%. The incidence of babesiosis in hospitalized patients in Spain is 2.35 cases per 10,000,000 inhabitants/year. The mortality rate is estimated to be approximately 9% in hospitalized patients but can reach 20% if the disease is transmitted by transfusion. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the epidemiological impact of inpatients diagnosed with babesiosis on the National Health System (NHS) of Spain between 1997 and 2019. METHODOLOGY: A retrospective longitudinal descriptive study that included inpatients diagnosed with babesiosis [ICD-9-CM code 088.82, ICD-10 code B60.0, cases ap2016-2019] in public Spanish NHS hospitals between 1 January 1997 and 31 December 2019 was developed. Data were obtained from the minimum basic dataset (CMBD in Spanish), which was provided by the Ministerio de Sanidad, Servicios Sociales e Igualdad after the receipt of a duly substantiated request and the signing of a confidentiality agreement. MAIN FINDINGS: Twenty-nine inpatients diagnosed with babesiosis were identified in Spain between 1997 and 2019 (IR: 0.28 cases/10,000,000 person-years). A total of 82.8% of the cases were men from urban areas who were approximately 46 years old. The rate of primary diagnoses was 55.2% and the number of readmissions was 79.3%. The mean hospital stay was 20.3±19.2 days, with an estimated cost of 186,925.66. Two patients, both with secondary diagnoses of babesiosis, died in our study. CONCLUSIONS: Human babesiosis is still a rare zoonosis in Spain, with an incidence rate that has been increasing over the years. Most cases occurred in middle-aged men from urban areas between summer and autumn. The Castilla-La-Mancha and Extremadura regions recorded the highest number of cases. Given the low rate of primary diagnoses (55.2%) and the high number of readmissions (79.3%), a low clinical suspicion is likely. There was a 6.9% mortality in our study. Both patients who died were patients with secondary diagnoses of the disease.
Subject(s)Babesia , Babesiosis , Ixodes , Male , Animals , Middle Aged , Humans , United States , Female , Babesiosis/epidemiology , Spain/epidemiology , Retrospective Studies , Zoonoses/epidemiology
Subject(s)Disease Outbreaks , Zoonoses , Humans , Animals , Zoonoses/epidemiology
OBJECTIVE: To characterize clinical and epidemiologic features of SARS-CoV-2 in companion animals detected through both passive and active surveillance in the US. ANIMALS: 204 companion animals (109 cats, 95 dogs) across 33 states with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections between March 2020 and December 2021. PROCEDURES: Public health officials, animal health officials, and academic researchers investigating zoonotic SARS-CoV-2 transmission events reported clinical, laboratory, and epidemiologic information through a standardized One Health surveillance process developed by the CDC and partners. RESULTS: Among dogs and cats identified through passive surveillance, 94% (n = 87) had reported exposure to a person with COVID-19 before infection. Clinical signs of illness were present in 74% of pets identified through passive surveillance and 27% of pets identified through active surveillance. Duration of illness in pets averaged 15 days in cats and 12 days in dogs. The average time between human and pet onset of illness was 10 days. Viral nucleic acid was first detected at 3 days after exposure in both cats and dogs. Antibodies were detected starting 5 days after exposure, and titers were highest at 9 days in cats and 14 days in dogs. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Results of the present study supported that cats and dogs primarily become infected with SARS-CoV-2 following exposure to a person with COVID-19, most often their owners. Case investigation and surveillance that include both people and animals are necessary to understand transmission dynamics and viral evolution of zoonotic diseases like SARS-CoV-2.
Subject(s)COVID-19 , Cat Diseases , Dog Diseases , Animals , Cats , Humans , Dogs , United States/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/veterinary , Cat Diseases/epidemiology , Dog Diseases/epidemiology , Zoonoses/epidemiology , Pets
Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is enzootic in dromedary camels and causes zoonotic infection and disease in humans. Although over 80% of the global population of infected dromedary camels are found in Africa, zoonotic disease had only been reported in the Arabia Peninsula and travel-associated disease has been reported elsewhere. In this study, genetic diversity and molecular epidemiology of MERS-CoV in dromedary camels in Ethiopia were investigated during 2017-2020. Of 1766 nasal swab samples collected, 61 (3.5%) were detected positive for MERS-CoV RNA. Of 484 turbinate swab samples collected, 10 (2.1%) were detected positive for MERS-CoV RNA. Twenty-five whole genome sequences were obtained from these MERS-CoV positive samples. Phylogenetically, these Ethiopian camel-originated MERS-CoV belonged to clade C2, clustering with other East African camel strains. Virus sequences from camel herds clustered geographically while in an abattoir, two distinct phylogenetic clusters of MERS-CoVs were observed in two sequential sampling collections, which indicates the greater genetic diversity of MERS-CoV in abattoirs. In contrast to clade A and B viruses from the Arabian Peninsula, clade C camel-originated MERS-CoV from Ethiopia had various nucleotide insertions and deletions in non-structural gene nsp3, accessory genes ORF3 and ORF5 and structural gene N. This study demonstrates the genetic instability of MERS-CoV in dromedaries in East Africa, which indicates that the virus is still actively adapting to its camel host. The impact of the observed nucleotide insertions and deletions on virus evolution, viral fitness, and zoonotic potential deserves further study.
Subject(s)Coronavirus Infections , Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus , Animals , Humans , Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus/genetics , Camelus , Phylogeny , Ethiopia/epidemiology , Molecular Epidemiology , Travel , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/veterinary , Zoonoses/epidemiology , Genetic Variation , RNA
INTRODUCTION: In a guinea pig herd with 26 breeding animals, several individuals of all age categories died (16/26) after three animals had been newly introduced from another herd. Furthermore, the population suffered of apathy, anorexia, severe weight loss and conjunctivitis, as well as abortions and stillbirths. At the same time, the owner experienced a SARS-CoV-2 infection with pneumonia, which was confirmed by taking a PCR test. Chlamydia caviae was detected from the conjunctiva and vagina/uterus in one juvenile animal together with an intestinal Cryptosporidium wrairi infection. Oocysts were found histologically in the small intestine, which was confirmed by PCR. C. wairi is a parasite adapted to guinea pigs with zoonotic potential, which causes diarrhoea with frequent deaths in larger guinea pig herds. C. caviae is also a zoonotic pathogen and often the cause of conjunctivitis, pneumonia and abortions in guinea pigs and can lead to upper respiratory tract disease, conjunctivitis but also severe pneumonia in humans. The increased death cases and the clinical signs could be traced back to an infection with Cryptosporidium wrairi, complicated by a co-infection of C. caviae. We suspect that the abortions were caused by C. caviae, but since the population was treated with various antibiotics effective against chlamydial infections, it was no longer possible to verify this by PCR testing. Unfortunately, more animals succumbed and finally only two animals of the originally 26 were left. With this case report, we would like to point out to veterinarians that guinea pigs can be an important source of zoonotic infections for various pathogens, especially since they are popular pets and often come into close contact with children where hygiene might not always be strictly followed.
INTRODUCTION: Dans un groupe de cobayes de 26 animaux reproducteurs, plusieurs individus de toutes les catégories d'âge sont morts (16/26) après l'introduction de trois animaux provenant d'un autre groupe. En outre, la population a souffert d'apathie, d'anorexie, de perte de poids sévère et de conjonctivite ainsi que d'avortements et de mortinatalité. La présence de Chlamydia caviae a pu être détectée dans la conjonctive et le vagin/utérus d'un animal juvénile, ainsi qu'une infection intestinale à Cryptosporidium wrairi. Des oocystes ont été trouvés histologiquement dans l'intestin grêle, ce qui a été confirmé par PCR. C. wairi est un parasite adapté aux cobayes avec un potentiel zoonotique, qui provoque des diarrhées avec des morts fréquentes dans les grands groupes de cobayes. C. caviae est également un agent pathogène zoonotique et est souvent à l'origine de conjonctivites, de pneumonies et d'avortements chez les cobayes ; il peut entraîner des maladies des voies respiratoires supérieures, des conjonctivites mais aussi des pneumonies graves chez l'homme. L'augmentation des cas de décès et les signes cliniques pourraient être attribués à une infection par Cryptosporidium wrairi, compliquée par une co-infection par C. caviae. Nous soupçonnons que les avortements ont été causés par C. caviae, mais comme la population a été traitée avec divers antibiotiques efficaces contre les infections à chlamydia, il n'était plus possible de le vérifier par des tests PCR. Malheureusement, d'autres animaux ont succombé et il ne restait finalement que deux animaux sur les 26 d'origine. Avec ce rapport de cas, nous aimerions attirer l'attention des vétérinaires sur le fait que les cochons d'Inde peuvent être une source importante d'infections zoonotiques pour divers pathogènes, d'autant plus qu'il s'agit d'animaux de compagnie populaires qui sont souvent en contact étroit avec des enfants avec lesquels l'hygiène n'est pas toujours strictement respectée.
Subject(s)Chlamydia Infections , Conjunctivitis , Cryptosporidiosis , Guinea Pigs , Animals , Female , Humans , Conjunctivitis/epidemiology , Conjunctivitis/microbiology , Conjunctivitis/parasitology , Conjunctivitis/veterinary , Cryptosporidiosis/epidemiology , Cryptosporidium , Disease Outbreaks/veterinary , Chlamydia Infections/complications , Chlamydia Infections/epidemiology , Chlamydia Infections/veterinary , Zoonoses/epidemiology , Zoonoses/microbiology , Zoonoses/parasitology
Today, the emergence of zoonoses is one of the biggest concerns for human health. With the recent examples of the Ebola virus, avian flus or coronaviruses, this threat is intensifying and raising fears of pandemics of the same magnitude as Covid-19. In this article, we review the state of knowledge about the mechanisms involved in these emergences, especially the impact of human activities on ecosystems, the intensive breeding of domestic animals or wildlife trade. We conclude on the importance of adopting a real integrated "One Health" approach in order to implement solutions at the beginning of this process of emergence and thus prevent new catastrophes.
Title: Perte de biodiversité, prélude aux émergences virales. Abstract: Aujourd'hui, l'émergence de zoonoses est un phénomène des plus préoccupants. Avec les exemples récents du virus Ebola, des virus responsables des grippes aviaires, ou des coronavirus, cette menace s'intensifie et fait craindre des pandémies de la même ampleur que celle de la Covid-19. Dans cette synthèse, nous dressons l'état des connaissances sur les mécanismes impliqués dans ces émergences, que ce soit l'impact de l'homme sur les écosystèmes, l'élevage intensif d'animaux domestiques, ou encore le commerce de la faune sauvage. Nous concluons sur l'importance d'adopter une réelle approche intégrée « Une seule santé ¼ (One health) afin d'implémenter des solutions au début de ce processus d'émergence et ainsi de prévenir de nouvelles catastrophes.