Mathematical model optimized for prediction and health care planning for COVID-19. / Modelo matemático optimizado para la predicción y planificación de la asistencia sanitaria por la COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE: The COVID-19 pandemic has threatened to collapse hospital and ICU services, and it has affected the care programs for non-COVID patients. The objective was to develop a mathematical model designed to optimize predictions related to the need for hospitalization and ICU admission by COVID-19 patients. DESIGN: Prospective study. SETTING: Province of Granada (Spain). POPULATION: COVID-19 patients hospitalized, admitted to ICU, recovered and died from March 15 to September 22, 2020. STUDY VARIABLES: The number of patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 and hospitalized or admitted to ICU for COVID-19. RESULTS: The data reported by hospitals was used to develop a mathematical model that reflects the flow of the population among the different interest groups in relation to COVID-19. This tool allows to analyse different scenarios based on socio-health restriction measures, and to forecast the number of people infected, hospitalized and admitted to the ICU. CONCLUSIONS: The mathematical model is capable of providing predictions on the evolution of the COVID-19 sufficiently in advance as to anticipate the peaks of prevalence and hospital and ICU care demands, and also the appearance of periods in which the care for non-COVID patients could be intensified.

Can Chest Computed Tomography Findings of Symptomatic COVID-19 Patients Upon Admission Indicate Disease Prognosis and Clinical Outcome?

AIM: This study aimed to investigate whether initial chest Computed Tomography (CT) findings of COVID-19 patients could predict clinical outcomes, prognoses, and mortality rates associated with the infection. BACKGROUND: Published studies on chest CT in COVID-19 infection do not go beyond describing the characteristics of the current period. Comparative analysis of chest CT findings upon hospital admission among patients with different clinical outcomes is scarce. OBJECTIVE: We sought to retrospectively evaluate and compare clinical outcomes, prognoses, and mortality rates based upon the initial chest CT findings of 198 consecutive symptomatic patients with COVID-19 confirmed by Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR). METHODS: Patients (N = 198) were divided into three groups according to their clinical outcomes as follows: group 1 (n = 62) included patients discharged from the service, group 2 (n= 60) included patients hospitalized in the intensive care unit, and group 3 (n = 76) included patients who died despite treatment. RESULTS: Predictors of poor prognosis and mortality with regard to chest CT findings included mediastinal lymphadenopathy, pleural effusion, and pericardial effusion, and clinical characteristics of age, dyspnea, and hypertension. The halo sign on chest CT was a good prognosis predictor in multivariate analysis. CONCLUSION: Some CT findings, such as discharge, intensive care unit hospitalization, and death as the worst consequence, significantly correlated with endpoints. These findings support the role of CT imaging for potentially predicting clinical outcomes of patients with COVID-19.

Effect of Nation-wide Lockdown on Palliative Care Services in a Tertiary Care Centre in India: A Retrospective Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected all the aspects of life of mankind, posing unique challenges for health-care services. In order to contain the spread of the virus, a countrywide mass lockdown has been imposed in India. Although the lockdown has modified the epidemic trajectory, it has affected the lives of many non-COVID patients. Patients in need of care could not approach hospitals. METHODS: This retrospective observational study was conducted in the Department of Onco-Anaesthesia and Palliative Medicine at a tertiary care center in India. The yearly data of patient flow for the year 2019 was compared with that during the lockdown. RESULTS: The single-day average of out-patients, in-patients, and other department consultation requests requiring palliative care decreased drastically during the lockdown in comparison to the previous year. The single-day average of teleconsultations increased more than double during the lockdown. CONCLUSION: Although lockdown decreases the spread of the epidemic, it increases the suffering of other patients who require medical care. Various steps have to be adopted in the regular working pattern of hospitals to cater to the needs of the patients requiring care, without increasing the risk of contracting COVID-19.

An Introduction to Telehealth and COVID-19 Innovations - A Primer for Librarians.

Telehealth services have slowly yet steadily increased over the past few decades as new technologies emerge. However, social distancing mandates, state shutdowns, and an overburdened healthcare system during the COVID-19 pandemic forced a dramatic surge forward in telehealth use and policy. While many of these emergency measures are temporary, the successes, failures and lessons learned during this period will change the way telehealth is administered, moving forward. This column will review recent changes to telehealth and telemedicine services during the pandemic and their impact on healthcare systems.

Foot and ankle trauma management during the COVID-19 pandemic: Experiences from a major trauma unit.

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a paradigm shift in clinical practice, particularly in ways in which healthcare is accessed by patients and delivered by healthcare practitioners. Many of these changes have been serially modified in adaptation to growing service demands and department provision capacity. We evaluated the impact of the pandemic on the foot and ankle service at our trauma unit, assessing whether these adaptations to practice were justifiable, successful and sustainable for the future. This was a single-centre, retrospective cohort study analysing the patient care pathway from admission to discharge, for two pre-defined timeframes: Phase 0 (pre-lockdown phase) and Phase 1 (lockdown phase). Patients were split into stable and unstable injuries depending on their fracture pattern. The follow-up modality and duration were evaluated. Trauma throughput for the equivalent timeframe in 2019 was also analysed for comparison. There were 106 unstable fractures and 100 stable fractures in 2020.78 interventional procedures were performed on 72 patients with unstable fractures in Phase-1. Close contact casting was performed on 13 patients at presentation in the ED. Selective patients underwent partial fixation in theatre, which still provided adequate stability. 35% of patients with a stable fracture were discharged directly from the ED with written advice from a review letter. The treatment modality in selective patients, particularly the vulnerable should be carefully assessed. Interventions performed at presentation often negate the need for admission. Partial fixation reduces intraoperative time and surgical insult. Integrating telemedicine into the care pathway, particularly for stable ankle fractures reduces the need for physician-patient contact and eases follow-up burden. Many of our recommended changes are easily replicated in other clinical settings. Should these adaptations demonstrate long-term sustainability, it is likely they will remain incorporated into future clinical practice.

Practice in Information Technology Support for Fangcang Shelter Hospital during COVID-19 Epidemic in Wuhan, China.

In confronting the sudden epidemic of COVID-19, China and other countries have been under great deal of pressure to block virus transmission and reduce death cases. Fangcang shelter hospital, which is converted from large-scale public venue, is proposed and proven to be an effective way for administering medical care and social isolation. This paper presents the practice in information technology support for a Fangcang shelter hospital in Wuhan, China. The experiences include the deployment strategy of IT infrastructure, the redesign of function modules in the hospital information system (HIS), equipment maintenance and medical staff training. The deployment strategy and HIS modules have ensured smoothness and efficiency of clinical work. The team established a quick response mechanism and adhered to the principle of nosocomial infection control. Deployment of network and modification of HIS was finished in the 48 hours before patient admittance. A repair hotline and remote support for equipment and software were available whenever medical workers met with any questions. No engineer ever entered the contaminated areas and no one was infected by the coronavirus during the hospital operation. Up to now, Fangcang shelter hospital is adopted by many regions around the world facing the collapse of their medical systems. This valuable experience in informatization construction and service in Wuhan may help participators involving in Fangcang shelter hospital get better information technology support, and find more practical interventions to fight the epidemic.

Excess deaths in people with cardiovascular diseases during the COVID-19 pandemic.

AIMS: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) increase mortality risk from coronavirus infection (COVID-19). There are also concerns that the pandemic has affected supply and demand of acute cardiovascular care. We estimated excess mortality in specific CVDs, both 'direct', through infection, and 'indirect', through changes in healthcare. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used (i) national mortality data for England and Wales to investigate trends in non-COVID-19 and CVD excess deaths; (ii) routine data from hospitals in England (n = 2), Italy (n = 1), and China (n = 5) to assess indirect pandemic effects on referral, diagnosis, and treatment services for CVD; and (iii) population-based electronic health records from 3 862 012 individuals in England to investigate pre- and post-COVID-19 mortality for people with incident and prevalent CVD. We incorporated pre-COVID-19 risk (by age, sex, and comorbidities), estimated population COVID-19 prevalence, and estimated relative risk (RR) of mortality in those with CVD and COVID-19 compared with CVD and non-infected (RR: 1.2, 1.5, 2.0, and 3.0).Mortality data suggest indirect effects on CVD will be delayed rather than contemporaneous (peak RR 1.14). CVD service activity decreased by 60-100% compared with pre-pandemic levels in eight hospitals across China, Italy, and England. In China, activity remained below pre-COVID-19 levels for 2-3 months even after easing lockdown and is still reduced in Italy and England. For total CVD (incident and prevalent), at 10% COVID-19 prevalence, we estimated direct impact of 31 205 and 62 410 excess deaths in England (RR 1.5 and 2.0, respectively), and indirect effect of 49 932 to 99 865 deaths. CONCLUSION: Supply and demand for CVD services have dramatically reduced across countries with potential for substantial, but avoidable, excess mortality during and after the pandemic.

Trends in Use of Telehealth Among Health Centers During the COVID-19 Pandemic - United States, June 26-November 6, 2020.

Telehealth can facilitate access to care, reduce risk for transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 [COVID-19]), conserve scarce medical supplies, and reduce strain on health care capacity and facilities while supporting continuity of care. Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA)-funded health centers* expanded telehealth† services during the COVID-19 pandemic (1). The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services eliminated geographic restrictions and enhanced reimbursement so that telehealth services-enabled health centers could expand telehealth services and continue providing care during the pandemic (2,3). CDC and HRSA analyzed data from 245 health centers that completed a voluntary weekly HRSA Health Center COVID-19 Survey§ for 20 consecutive weeks to describe trends in telehealth use. During the weeks ending June 26-November 6, 2020, the overall percentage of weekly health care visits conducted via telehealth (telehealth visits) decreased by 25%, from 35.8% during the week ending June 26 to 26.9% for the week ending November 6, averaging 30.2% over the study period. Weekly telehealth visits declined when COVID-19 cases were decreasing and plateaued as cases were increasing. Health centers in the South and in rural areas consistently reported the lowest average percentage of weekly telehealth visits over the 20 weeks, compared with health centers in other regions and urban areas. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, maintaining and expanding telehealth services will be critical to ensuring access to care while limiting exposure to SARS-CoV-2.

Telemedicine Awareness, Knowledge, Attitude, and Skills of Health Care Workers in a Low-Resource Country During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Cross-sectional Study.

BACKGROUND: Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, several health care programs intended to provide telemedicine services have been introduced in Libya. Many physicians have used these services to provide care and advice to their patients remotely. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to provide an overview of physicians' awareness, knowledge, attitude, and skill in using telehealth services in Libya. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, we administered a web-based survey to health care workers in Libya in May 2020. The questionnaire collected information on physicians' general demographic characteristics, ability to use a computer, and telemedicine awareness, knowledge, attitude, and skills. RESULTS: Among 673 health care workers who responded to the survey, 377 (56%) and 248 (36.8%) reported high awareness and high computer skill scores, respectively, for telemedicine. Furthermore, 582 (86.5%) and 566 (82.6%) health care workers reported high knowledge and high attitude scores, respectively. We observed no significant differences in awareness, knowledge, attitude, and skill scores among physicians employed at public, private, or both types of hospitals. We observed significant differences in the mean awareness (P<.001), attitude (P=.001), and computer skill scores (P<.001) , where the score distribution of the groups based on the ability to use computers was not similar. Knowledge scores did not significantly differ among the three groups (P=.37). Respondents with professional computer skills had significantly higher awareness (χ23=14.5; P<.001) and attitude (χ23=13.5; P=.001) scores than those without professional computer skills. We observed significant differences in the mean computer skill scores of the groups (χ23=199.6; P<.001). CONCLUSIONS: The consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic are expected to persist for a long time. Hence, policy programs such as telemedicine services, which aim to address the obstacles to medical treatment owing to physical distancing measures, will likely continue for a long time. Therefore, there is a need to train and support health care workers and initiate government programs that provide adequate and supportive health care services to patients in transitional countries.

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the utilization of routine immunization services in Lebanon.

INTRODUCTION: The global abrupt progression of the COVID-19 pandemic may disrupt critical life-saving services such as routine immunization (RI), thus increasing the susceptibility of countries to outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs). Being endemic to several infectious diseases, Lebanon might be at increased risk of outbreaks as the utilization of RI services might have deteriorated due to the pandemic and the country's political unrest following the October 2019 uprising. The aim of this study was to assess the changes in the utilization of RI services in both the public and private sectors following the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: A self-administered cross-sectional survey was completed electronically, in April 2020, by 345 private pediatricians who are registered in professional associations of physicians in Lebanon and provide immunization services at their clinics. Means of the reported percentages of decrease in the utilization of vaccination services by pediatricians were calculated. As for the public sector, an examination of the monthly differences in the number of administered vaccine doses in addition to their respective percentages of change was performed. Adjustment for the distribution of RI services between the sectors was performed to calculate the national decrease rate. RESULTS: The utilization of vaccination services at the national level decreased by 31%. In the private sector, immunization services provision diminished by 46.9% mainly between February and April 2020. The highest decrease rates were observed for oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) and hepatitis A, followed by measles and pneumococcal conjugate vaccines. The number of vaccine doses administered in the public sector decreased by 20%. The most prominent reductions were detected for the OPV and measles vaccines, and during October 2019 and March 2020. CONCLUSION: The substantial decrease in the utilization of RI as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic requires public health interventions to prevent future outbreaks of VPDs.

Using Telepractice to Deliver Pediatric Voice Care in a Changing World: Breaking down Challenges and Learning from Successes.

For children with voice disorders, access to care has long been a challenge. Reasons for this include the challenge of qualifying children with isolated voice disorders for services within the public-school system as well as a family's geographic proximity to experienced clinicians who are in the healthcare system. Over the past decade, there have been both formal and informal investigations into the use of telepractice to deliver services to communicatively disordered children and adults, including those with voice disorders. Although barriers and obstacles existed, use of telepractice to deliver such services demonstrated both feasibility and, in some studies, effective outcomes. However, prior to spring of 2020, use of telepractice to deliver speech pathology services was not mainstream. This changed when the nation was forced to shut down many of its in-person healthcare and educational delivery due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This article summarizes select relevant literature pertaining to the use of telepractice in speech language pathology over the past decade and provides a case-based discussion of how it was and is currently being used to deliver pediatric voice care.

Spikes in demand for hospital transfusion services.

INTRODUCTION: Spikes in the demand for blood components represent a substantial challenge to transfusion services. Simple metrics for characterizing volatility in blood components within the hospital transfusion service have not been established. METHODS: We measured the volatility of demand for blood services at a large academic urban general hospital over a 6-month period from July 2019 to December 2019 prior to the SARS-CoV2 pandemic. RESULTS: Among 4416 consecutive hours assessed, there were 693 h (16%) with spikes in demand for blood components with a mean (sd) of 3.8 (2.7) spikes/day. Spikes in demand were frequently clustered. The median number of hours between spikes differed by shift (6 h for days; 3 h for evenings; 3 h for nights). The percentage of shift hours with demand spikes also differed (9% day; 19% evening; 18% night). During the study, 32,447 components were distributed to 19,431 patients. Of these, 11,819 components (36%) were distributed during hours of peak demand. Hours with a simultaneous spike in both component demand and patient demand occurred in 5% of hours or approximately once each day. CONCLUSION: Demand for transfusion services was highly volatile in an unpredictable fashion. We provide an approach that could be used to benchmark spikes in demand for blood services at hospitals. Consideration of the frequency, unpredictability, and magnitude of spikes in demand may be relevant for hemovigilance programs and for strategies to determine the laboratory staffing needed for good patient care.

The opportunity costs of birth in Australia: Hospital resource savings for a post-COVID-19 era.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 caused significant disruptions to health systems globally; however, restricting the family presence during birth saw an increase in women considering community birth options. This study aimed to quantify the hospital resource savings that could occur if all low-risk women in Australia gave birth at home or in birth centers. METHODS: A whole-of-population linked administrative data set containing all women (n = 44 498) who gave birth in Queensland, Australia, between 01/07/2012 and 30/06/2015 was reweighted to represent all Australian women giving birth in 2017. A static microsimulation model of woman and infant health service resource use was created based on 2017 data. The model was comprised of a base model, representing "current" care, and a counterfactual model, representing hypothetical scenarios where all low-risk Australian women gave birth at home or in birth centers. RESULTS: If all low-risk women gave birth at home in 2017, cesarean rates would have reduced from 13.4% to 2.7%. Similarly, there would have been 860 fewer inpatient bed days and 10.1 fewer hours of women's intensive care unit time per 1000 births. If all women gave birth in birth centers, cesarean rates would have reduced to 6.7%. In addition, over 760 inpatient bed days would have been saved along with 5.6 hours of women's intensive care unit time per 1000 births. CONCLUSIONS: Significant health resource savings could occur by shifting low-risk births from hospitals to home birth and birth center services. Greater examination of Australian women's preferences for home birth and birth center birth models of care is needed.

A Perspective from Los Angeles of COVID-19 effect and impact on cardiac surgery.

Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) captured worldwide attention as the virus spread from initial detection as a pneumonia of unknown cause in Wuhan, China in December 2019 to the declaration of a pandemic by the WHO only 3 months later. This paper describes the impact of COVID-19 on cardiac surgery services in the greater Los Angeles area. Discussion includes public health response to the pandemic, how local hospitals reacted to the expected surge in patients with COVID, the establishment of telemedicine services, and the projected future impact on California healthcare as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the use of advance care planning services within the veterans administration system in Taiwan.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of COVID-19 on the outpatient advance care planning (ACP) services provided by veterans hospitals in Taiwan. METHODS: This study adopted a retrospective data analysis. We investigated ACP services provided by 15 veterans hospitals in Taiwan from 2019 to June 2020. We also conducted a statistical analysis on the ACP services provided by the Taipei Veterans General Hospital. RESULTS: From 2019 to June 2020, 15 veterans hospitals in Taiwan provided ACP services to 2493 individuals. The outpatient ACP services declined significantly after January 2020, decreasing from a national average of 206.2 ± 29.2 declarants per month to 106.2 ± 30.8 declarants per month in the 6 months immediately following the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak (p < 0.001). From the official implementation of the ACP in January 2019 to the end of June 2020, a total of 1126 declarants accepted ACP services at the Taipei Veterans General Hospital. When the COVID-19 pandemic was prevalent, the declarants who received ACP services were younger (i.e., 60.1 ± 15.2 vs 65.5 ± 16.3 years; p < 0.001). After the variables had been adjusted, the changes in the characteristics of the declarants receiving ACP services when the COVID-19 pandemic was prevalent were as follows: a significant increase in the percentage of hospital staff receiving ACP services (odds ratio [OR]: 5.460, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.378-12.536); An increase in the percentage of declarants who paid for the ACP services received at their own expense (OR: 3.417, 95% CI: 1.591-7.339); and an increase in the percentage of declarants who received the consultations with three or more people (OR: 2.017, 95% CI: 1.278-3.182). CONCLUSION: COVID-19 severely changed outpatient ACP services provided by hospitals. The results obtained by this study offer valuable insight regarding the provision of outpatient ACP services.

Scalability of Telemedicine Services in a Large Integrated Multispecialty Health Care System During COVID-19.

Immediately before the pandemic, 300 enterprise Mayo Clinic physicians and advanced practice providers had performed a minimum of one video telemedicine consult in the preceding year. By July 15, 2020, the number of Mayo Clinic providers performing video telemedicine consults had risen to >6,500, reflecting a 2,000% increase. Through this pandemic, we have witnessed unprecedented growth in telemedicine utilization. The existing telemedicine system has proven to be scalable.

Early COVID-19 First-Dose Vaccination Coverage Among Residents and Staff Members of Skilled Nursing Facilities Participating in the Pharmacy Partnership for Long-Term Care Program - United States, December 2020-January 2021.

Residents and staff members of long-term care facilities (LTCFs), because they live and work in congregate settings, are at increased risk for infection with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) (1,2). In particular, skilled nursing facilities (SNFs), LTCFs that provide skilled nursing care and rehabilitation services for persons with complex medical needs, have been documented settings of COVID-19 outbreaks (3). In addition, residents of LTCFs might be at increased risk for severe outcomes because of their advanced age or the presence of underlying chronic medical conditions (4). As a result, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices has recommended that residents and staff members of LTCFs be offered vaccination in the initial COVID-19 vaccine allocation phase (Phase 1a) in the United States (5). In December 2020, CDC launched the Pharmacy Partnership for Long-Term Care Program* to facilitate on-site vaccination of residents and staff members at enrolled LTCFs. To evaluate early receipt of vaccine during the first month of the program, the number of eligible residents and staff members in enrolled SNFs was estimated using resident census data from the National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN†) and staffing data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) Payroll-Based Journal.§ Among 11,460 SNFs with at least one vaccination clinic during the first month of the program (December 18, 2020-January 17, 2021), an estimated median of 77.8% of residents (interquartile range [IQR] = 61.3%- 93.1%) and a median of 37.5% (IQR = 23.2%- 56.8%) of staff members per facility received ≥1 dose of COVID-19 vaccine through the Pharmacy Partnership for Long-Term Care Program. The program achieved moderately high coverage among residents; however, continued development and implementation of focused communication and outreach strategies are needed to improve vaccination coverage among staff members in SNFs and other long-term care settings.

Restructuring service at a mastology outpatient clinic during the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVE: to report the experience of a health team in restructuring service at a mastology outpatient clinic. METHODS: an experience report in a public university service mastology outpatient in Ceará between March and April 2020. Service in this outpatient clinic is exclusively for women and who have breast changes for surgical treatments ranging from nodulectomies to mastectomies with oncoplastic. RESULTS: increased COVID-19 cases brought the need to restructure healthcare services. The following steps were followed: identification of scheduled patients, reading of clinical developments in electronic medical records, individual assessment to define whether or not appointment would remain, telephone contact to inform about unscheduling. Among the 555 consultations scheduled for March and April 2020, 316 (56.9%) were maintained. FINAL CONSIDERATIONS: restructuring consultations at a mastology outpatient clinic optimized the waiting time for consultations and avoided crowds at service, providing patient safety.