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1.
Nonlinear Dyn ; 101(3): 2003-2012, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1906358

ABSTRACT

The pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has threatened the social and economic structure all around the world. Generally, COVID-19 has three possible transmission routes, including pre-symptomatic, symptomatic and asymptomatic transmission, among which the last one has brought a severe challenge for the containment of the disease. One core scientific question is to understand the influence of asymptomatic individuals and of the strength of control measures on the evolution of the disease, particularly on a second outbreak of the disease. To explore these issues, we proposed a novel compartmental model that takes the infection of asymptomatic individuals into account. We get the relationship between asymptomatic individuals and critical strength of control measures theoretically. Furthermore, we verify the reliability of our model and the accuracy of the theoretical analysis by using the real confirmed cases of COVID-19 contamination. Our results, showing the importance of the asymptomatic population on the control measures, would provide useful theoretical reference to the policymakers and fuel future studies of COVID-19.

2.
J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr ; 85(1): 66-72, 2020 09 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1860998

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 and its social responses threaten the health of people living with HIV. We conducted a rapid-response interview to assess COVID-19 protective behaviors of people living with HIV and the impact of their responses on HIV-related health care. METHOD: Men and women living with HIV (N = 162) aged 20-37 years participating in a longitudinal study of HIV treatment and care completed routine study measures and an assessment of COVID-19-related experiences. RESULTS: At baseline, most participants demonstrated HIV viremia, markers indicative of renal disorders, and biologically confirmed substance use. At follow-up, in the first month of responding to COVID-19, engaging in more social distancing behaviors was related to difficulty accessing food and medications and increased cancelation of health care appointments, both by self and providers. We observed antiretroviral therapy adherence had improved during the initial month of COVID-19 response. CONCLUSIONS: Factors that may pose added risk for COVID-19 severity were prevalent among people living with HIV, and those with greater risk factors did not practice more COVID-19 protective behaviors. Social distancing and other practices intended to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 interfered with HIV care, and impeded access to food and medications, although an immediate adverse impact on medication adherence was not evident. These results suggest social responses to COVID-19 adversely impacted the health care of people living with HIV, supporting continued monitoring to determine the long-term effects of co-occurring HIV and COVID-19 pandemics.


Subject(s)
Betacoronavirus , Coinfection/prevention & control , Coronavirus Infections/complications , Coronavirus Infections/prevention & control , HIV Infections/complications , Pandemics/prevention & control , Pneumonia, Viral/complications , Pneumonia, Viral/prevention & control , Adult , COVID-19 , Coinfection/virology , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Female , Food Supply , Georgia/epidemiology , HIV Infections/epidemiology , HIV Infections/virology , HIV-1 , Humans , Male , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Risk Factors , SARS-CoV-2 , Viremia , Young Adult
3.
Curr Opin Clin Nutr Metab Care ; 23(4): 288-293, 2020 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1722683

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The Covid-19 pandemic has daunted the world with its enormous impact on healthcare, economic recession, and psychological distress. Nutrition is an integral part of every person life care, and should also be mandatorily integrated to patient care under the Covid-19 pandemic. It is crucial to understand how the Covid-19 does develop and which risk factors are associated with negative outcomes and death. Therefore, it is of utmost importance to have studies that respect the basic tenets of the scientific method in order to be trusted. The goal of this review is to discuss the deluge of scientific data and how it might influence clinical reasoning and practice. RECENT FINDINGS: A large number of scientific manuscripts are daily published worldwide, and the Covid-19 makes no exception. Up to now, data on Covid-19 have come from countries initially affected by the disease and mostly pertain either epidemiological observations or opinion papers. Many of them do not fulfil the essential principles characterizing the adequate scientific method. SUMMARY: It is crucial to be able to critical appraise the scientific literature, in order to provide adequate nutrition therapy to patients, and in particular, to Covid-19 infected individuals.


Subject(s)
Coronavirus Infections , Nutrition Disorders , Nutrition Therapy/standards , Nutritional Physiological Phenomena , Pandemics , Pneumonia, Viral , COVID-19 , Coronavirus Infections/complications , Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology , Coronavirus Infections/physiopathology , Coronavirus Infections/therapy , Humans , Nutrition Disorders/epidemiology , Nutrition Disorders/etiology , Nutrition Disorders/therapy , Nutrition Therapy/methods , Pneumonia, Viral/complications , Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology , Pneumonia, Viral/physiopathology , Pneumonia, Viral/therapy , Risk Factors
4.
Gut Microbes ; 13(1): 1-9, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1493512

ABSTRACT

Gut microbiome manipulation to alter the gut-lung axis may potentially protect humans against respiratory infections, and clinical trials of probiotics show promise in this regard in healthy adults and children. However, comparable studies are lacking in overweight/obese people, who have increased risks in particular of viral upper respiratory tract infections (URTI). This Addendum further analyses our recent placebo-controlled trial of probiotics in overweight/obese people (focused initially on weight loss) to investigate the impact of probiotics upon the occurrence of URTI symptoms. As well as undergoing loss of weight and improvement in certain metabolic parameters, study participants taking probiotics experienced a 27% reduction in URTI symptoms versus control, with those ≥45 years or BMI ≥30 kg/m2 experiencing greater reductions. This symptom reduction is apparent within 2 weeks of probiotic use. Gut microbiome diversity remained stable throughout the study in probiotic-treated participants. Our data provide support for further trials to assess the potential role of probiotics in preventing viral URTI (and possibly also COVID-19), particularly in overweight/obese people.


Subject(s)
Obesity/complications , Overweight/complications , Probiotics/therapeutic use , Respiratory Tract Infections/prevention & control , Respiratory Tract Infections/therapy , Adult , Aged , Double-Blind Method , Gastrointestinal Microbiome , Humans , Middle Aged , Pandemics , Self Report
5.
Am J Infect Control ; 49(6): 721-726, 2021 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1269208

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Infection Prevention and Control (IPC) practices have been established in home health care. Adherence to IPC practices has been suboptimal with limited available evidence. The study aim was to examine the impact of individual, home environment, and organizational factors on IPC practices using human factors model. METHODS: Three hundred and fifty-three nurses were surveyed across two large home care agencies to examine the relationship between IPC adherence and individual, home environment, and organizational factors. RESULTS: Nurses reported multiple barriers to IPC practices in patients' homes (mean = 4.34, standard deviation = 2.53). Frequent barriers included clutter (reported by 74.5% of nurses) and a dirty environment (70.3%). Nurses also reported limited availability of some IPC supplies (mean = 7.76, standard deviation = 2.44), including personal protective equipment. Home environment factors were significant barriers, and availability of IPC supplies were significant enablers of IPC adherence. Agency-provided training and decision-making resources were not significant factors for IPC adherence in the presence of home environment barriers and IPC supplies. CONCLUSIONS: This study findings suggest that IPC adherence strategies point to addressing barriers in the home environment and increasing availability of IPC supplies. The relationship between the patient's home environment, organizational factors, and IPC practices among home health care nurses warrants further study.


Subject(s)
Home Care Services , Nurses , Humans , Infection Control , Personal Protective Equipment
6.
Ir J Med Sci ; 191(3): 991-996, 2022 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1265579

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has had profound implications on healthcare institutions. AIMS: This study aims to assess and compare referral patterns during COVID-19 to corresponding dates for the preceding 3 years (2017-2019), in order to preemptively coordinate the logistics of the surgical unit for similar future experiences. METHODS: Retrospective review for our institution, a national tertiary referral centre for spine pathology. Two distinct time-points were chosen to represent the varied levels of social restriction during the current pandemic: (i) study period 1 (SP1) from 11 November 2020 to 08 June 2020 represents a national lockdown, and (ii) study period 2 (SP2) from 09 June 2020 to 09 September 2020 indicates an easing of restrictions. Both periods were compared to corresponding dates (CP1: 11 March-08 June and CP2 09 June-09 September) for the preceding 3 years (2017-2019). Data collected included age, gender, and mechanism of injury (MOI) for descriptive analyses. MOIs were categorised into disc disease, cyclist, road-traffic-accident (RTA), falls < 2 m, falls > 2 m, malignancy, sporting injuries, and miscellaneous. RESULTS: All MOI categories witnessed a reduction in referral numbers during SP1: disc disease (-29%), cyclist (-5%), RTAs (-66%), falls < 2 m (-39%), falls > 2 m (-17%), malignancy (-33%), sporting injuries (-100%), and miscellaneous (-58%). Four of 8 categories (RTAs, falls < 2 m, malignancy, miscellaneous) showed a trend towards return of pre-lockdown values during SP2. Two categories (disc disease, falls > 2 m) showed a further reduction (-34%, -27%) during SP2. One category (sporting injuries) portrayed a complete return to normal values during SP2 while a notable increase in cyclist-related referrals was witnessed (+ 63%) when compared with corresponding dates of previous years. CONCLUSION: Spinal injury continues to occur across almost all categories, albeit at considerably reduced numbers. RTAs and falls remained the most common MOI. Awareness needs to be drawn to the reduction of malignancy-related referrals to dissuade people with such symptoms from avoiding presentation to hospital over periods of social restrictions.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Spinal Injuries , COVID-19/epidemiology , Communicable Disease Control , Humans , Pandemics , Referral and Consultation , SARS-CoV-2
7.
Health Sci Rep ; 4(2): e286, 2021 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1258063

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: This paper compares the direct benefits to the State of Western Australia from employing a "suppression" policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic rather than a "herd immunity" approach. METHODS: An S-I-R (susceptible-infectious-resolved) model is used to estimate the likely benefits of a suppression COVID-19 response compared to a herd immunity alternative. Direct impacts of the virus are calculated on the basis of sick leave, hospitalizations, and fatalities, while indirect impacts related to response actions are excluded. RESULTS: Preliminary modeling indicates that approximately 1700 vulnerable person deaths are likely to have been prevented over 1 year from adopting a suppression response rather than a herd immunity response, and approximately 4500 hospitalizations. These benefits are valued at around AUD4.7 billion. If a do nothing policy had been adopted, the number of people in need of hospitalization is likely to have overwhelmed the hospital system within 50 days of the virus being introduced. Maximum hospital capacity is unlikely to be reached in either a suppression policy or a herd immunity policy. CONCLUSION: Using early international estimates to represent the negative impact each type of policy response is likely to have on gross state product, results suggest the benefit-cost ratio for the suppression policy is slightly higher than that of the herd immunity policy, but both benefit-cost ratios are less than one.

8.
J Med Internet Res ; 23(6): e25331, 2021 06 30.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1256244

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, major shortcomings in the way mental health care systems were organized were impairing the delivery of effective care. The mental health impacts of the pandemic, the recession, and the resulting social dislocation will depend on the extent to which care systems will become overwhelmed and on the strategic investments made across the system to effectively respond. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to explore the impact of strengthening the mental health system through technology-enabled care coordination on mental health and suicide outcomes. METHODS: A system dynamics model for the regional population catchment of North Coast New South Wales, Australia, was developed that incorporated defined pathways from social determinants of mental health to psychological distress, mental health care, and suicidal behavior. The model reproduced historic time series data across a range of outcomes and was used to evaluate the relative impact of a set of scenarios on attempted suicide (ie, self-harm hospitalizations), suicide deaths, mental health-related emergency department (ED) presentations, and psychological distress over the period from 2021 to 2030. These scenarios include (1) business as usual, (2) increase in service capacity growth rate by 20%, (3) standard telehealth, and (4) technology-enabled care coordination. Each scenario was tested using both pre- and post-COVID-19 social and economic conditions. RESULTS: Technology-enabled care coordination was forecast to deliver a reduction in self-harm hospitalizations and suicide deaths by 6.71% (95% interval 5.63%-7.87%), mental health-related ED presentations by 10.33% (95% interval 8.58%-12.19%), and the prevalence of high psychological distress by 1.76 percentage points (95% interval 1.35-2.32 percentage points). Scenario testing demonstrated that increasing service capacity growth rate by 20% or standard telehealth had substantially lower impacts. This pattern of results was replicated under post-COVID-19 conditions with technology-enabled care coordination being the only tested scenario, which was forecast to reduce the negative impact of the pandemic on mental health and suicide. CONCLUSIONS: The use of technology-enabled care coordination is likely to improve mental health and suicide outcomes. The substantially lower effectiveness of targeting individual components of the mental health system (ie, increasing service capacity growth rate by 20% or standard telehealth) reiterates that strengthening the whole system has the greatest impact on patient outcomes. Investments into more of the same types of programs and services alone will not be enough to improve outcomes; instead, new models of care and the digital infrastructure to support them and their integration are needed.


Subject(s)
Biomedical Technology , Mental Health Services/organization & administration , COVID-19 , Emergency Service, Hospital , Humans , Mental Health , New South Wales , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2 , Suicide, Attempted , Telemedicine
9.
Asian Pac J Cancer Prev ; 22(5): 1333-1349, 2021 May 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1248560

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The evidence has shown that SARS CoV-2 infected patients with comorbidities are more likely to have severe disease sequel and mortality. In SARS-CoV-2 infected cancer patients risks associated with other underlying comorbidities might vary from those in non-cancer SARS CoV-2 infected patients. The relative impact of different underlying health conditions among patients with cancer and SARS CoV-2 infection remains yet to be explored. This systematic review aims to explore the prevalence of comorbidities among cancer patients with SARS CoV-2 infection and their impact on mortality. METHODS: Online databases PubMed, Embase, Scopus and Web of science were searched for articles published between 9th July 2019 to July 8th 2020.Studies of cancer patients (>18 years) with diagnosis of SARS CoV-2 infection, published in English were included. A random-effects modelling for the meta-analyses was applied to assess the pooled prevalence and odds ratio for mortality due to comorbidities in SARS CoV-2 infected cancer patients. RESULTS: Total 31studies with 4086 SARS-CoV-2 infectedcancer patientsmet the inclusion criteria. Most prevalent co-morbidities in cancer patients with SARS CoV-2 infection were hypertension [42.3% (95%CI:37.5- 47.0)], diabetes [17.8% (95% CI: 15.3-20.4)] and cardiovascular diseases [16.7% (95%CI:12.9-20.4)].The risk of mortality (pOR) was significantly higher in individuals with hypertension[1.6(95%CI 1.24-2.00)], cardiovascular diseases [2.2 (95%CI 1.49- 3.27)], chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases [1.4(95% CI 1.05-2.00)] and diabetes [1.35(95%CI 1.06-1.73)]. CONCLUSION: Our results indicates that the mortality in SARS-CoV-2 infected cancer patients is affected by preexisting non-cancer comorbidities. By identifying the comorbidities predictive for mortality, clinicians can better stratify the risk of cancer patients presenting with SARS-COV-2, on their initial contact with health services.
.


Subject(s)
COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19/mortality , Neoplasms/epidemiology , Neoplasms/mortality , Comorbidity , Humans , Neoplasms/therapy
10.
Front Psychiatry ; 12: 627044, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1247919

ABSTRACT

Forced strict confinement to hamper the COVID-19 pandemic seriously affected people suffering from misophonia (M+) and those living with them. Misophonia is a complex neurophysiological and behavioral disorder of multifactorial origin, characterized by an intense physiological and emotional response produced by intolerance to auditory stimuli of the same pattern, regardless of physical properties. The present work studied the secondary impact that strict confinement caused in 342 adults (224 women: 118 men) regularly attending a medical psychological center in Barcelona. Misophonia, usually underdiagnosed, showed a prevalence of 35%, the same for women (37%) than men (31%). A retrospective analysis using a physical-psychological-social inventory of 10 variables evaluated the number of individuals that during confinement and self-confinement (March 11 - June 29, 2020) canceled (mostly M-) and/or requested a therapeutic intervention, the reasons for their request, and the strategies they used to self-manage the situation. Ten main variables indicated that the confinement exponentially increased the effects of misophonia compared with results from the same individuals during the last quarter of 2019. Most people diagnosed with misophonia continued with tele-assistance during the confinement because of this impact's self-concern. Besides the impacts as part of the general population, M+ also developed different symptoms causing significant personal, social, and job/occupational imbalance, as compared to M-. Health, fears, conflicts with neighbors, study-related difficulties were outstanding reasons for consultations. The LSB-50 test for 'Psychological and Psychosomatic Symptoms' applied to M+ revealed the increase of 8 of 9 items of this psychopathological test. Sleep disorders (coronasomnia), hostility, depression, and somatization were more severe than in previous assessments. Women presented the worst psychological and psychosomatic states (eight out of nine, as compared to one out of nine in males). The study unveiled the complex physical-psychological-social burden, the need for dissemination and a gender perspective to understand the secondary impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the mental health of the population with misophonia. The results also show that in this new COVID era people suffering from misophonia need to develop coping strategies addressing modifiable risk and protective factors. They deserve familial/social comprehension, stronger clinical support and a gender medicine perspective.

11.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int ; 28(30): 40515-40532, 2021 Aug.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1242812

ABSTRACT

The world has never been prepared for global pandemics like the COVID-19, currently posing an immense threat to the public and consistent pressure on the global healthcare systems to navigate optimized tools, equipments, medicines, and techno-driven approaches to retard the infection spread. The synergized outcome of artificial intelligence paradigms and human-driven control measures elicit a significant impact on screening, analysis, prediction, and tracking the currently infected individuals, and likely the future patients, with precision and accuracy, generating regular international and national data on confirmed, recovered, and death cases, as the current status of 3,820,869 infected patients worldwide. Artificial intelligence is a frontline concept, with time-saving, cost-effective, and productive access to disease management, rendering positive results in physician assistance in high workload conditions, radiology imaging, computational tomography, and database formulations, to facilitate availability of information accessible to researchers all over the globe. The review tends to elaborate the role of industry 4.0 technology, fast diagnostic procedures, and convolutional neural networks, as artificial intelligence aspects, in potentiating the COVID-19 management criteria and differentiating infection in SARS-CoV-2 positive and negative groups. Therefore, the review successfully supplements the processes of vaccine development, disease management, diagnosis, patient records, transmission inhibition, social distancing, and future pandemic predictions, with artificial intelligence revolution and smart techno processes to ensure that the human race wins this battle with COVID-19 and many more combats in the future.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Communicable Diseases , Artificial Intelligence , Humans , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2
12.
BMJ Glob Health ; 6(5)2021 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1232352

ABSTRACT

This paper provides evidence that the COVID-19-related mortality rate of national government ministers and heads of state has been substantially higher than that of people with a similar sex and age profile in the general population, a trend that is driven by African cases (17 out of 24 reported deaths worldwide, as of 6 February 2021). Ministers' work frequently puts them in close contact with diverse groups, and therefore at higher risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2, but this is not specific to Africa. This paper discusses five non-mutually exclusive hypotheses for the Africa-specific trend, involving comorbidity, poorly resourced healthcare and possible restrictions in accessing out-of-country health facilities, the underreporting of cases, and, later, the disproportionate impact of the so-called 'South African' variant (501Y.V2). The paper then turns its attention to the public health and political implications of the trend. While governments have measures in place to cope with the sudden loss of top officials, the COVID-19-related deaths have been associated with substantial changes in public health policy in cases where the response to the pandemic had initially been contested or minimal. Ministerial deaths may also result in a reconfiguration of political leadership, but we do not expect a wave of younger and more gender representative replacements. Rather, we speculate that a disconnect may emerge between the top leadership and the public, with junior ministers filling the void and in so doing putting themselves more at risk of infection. Opposition politicians may also be at significant risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Leadership , Africa/epidemiology , COVID-19/mortality , Humans
13.
Andrology ; 9(4): 1066-1075, 2021 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1231076

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which causes serious respiratory illnesses such as pneumonia and lung failure, was first reported in mid-December 2019 in China and has spread around the world. In addition to causing serious respiratory illnesses such as pneumonia and lung failure, there have been conflicting reports about the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in the semen of patients who were previously diagnosed with COVID-19 and possible implications for the male reproductive tract. OBJECTIVE: The goal for the present study was to review the current status of the literature concerning COVID-19 and male reproduction. MATERIAL AND METHODS: An electronic literature search was done by using PubMed and Google Scholar databases. Relevant papers, concerning SARS-COV-2 and COVID-19 and male reproduction, published between January 2020 and December 2020 were selected, analyzed and eventually included in the present literature review. RESULTS: SARS-CoV-2 may infect any cell type expressing angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), including reproductive cells. Besides the presence of the SARS-CoV-2 receptor, the expression of host proteases, such as transmembrane serine protease 2 (TMPRSS2), is needed to cleave the viral S protein, allowing permanent fusion of the viral and host cell membranes. Here, we aimed to review the current status of the literature concerning COVID-19 and male reproduction. The lack of co-expression of ACE2 and TMPRSS2 in the testis suggests that sperm cells may not be at increased risk of viral entry and spread. However, the presence of orchitis in COVID-19-confirmed patients and compromised sex-related hormonal balance among these patients intrigues reproductive medicine. DISCUSSION: SARS-CoV-2 may use alternate receptors to enter certain cell types, or the expression of ACE2 and TMPRSS2 may not be detected in healthy individuals. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 challenges all medical areas, including reproductive medicine. It is not yet clear what effects, if any, the COVID-19 pandemic will have on male reproduction. Further research is needed to understand the long-term impact of SARS-CoV-2 on male reproductive function.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Reproduction , Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme 2/metabolism , Genitalia, Male/metabolism , Humans , Male
14.
Math Comput Simul ; 190: 222-230, 2021 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1230653

ABSTRACT

Very recently, various mathematical models, for the dynamics of COVID-19 with main contribution of suspected-exposed-infected-recovered people have been proposed. Some models that account for the deceased, quarantined or social distancing functions were also presented. However, in any local space the real data reveals that the effects of lock-down and traveling are significant in decreasing and increasing the impact of this virus respectively. Here, discrete and continuum models for the dynamics of this virus are suggested. The continuum dynamical model is studied in detail. The present model deals with exposed, infected, recovered and deceased individuals (EIRD), which accounts for the health isolation and travelers (HIT) effects. Up to now no exact solutions of the parametric-dependent, nonlinear dynamical system NLDS were found. In this work, our objective is to find the exact solutions of a NLDS. To this issue, a novel approach is presented where a NLDS is recast to a linear dynamical system LDS. This is done by implementing the unified method (UM), with auxiliary equations, which are taken coupled linear ODE's (LDS). Numerical results of the exact solutions are evaluated, which can be applied to data in a local space (or anywhere) when the initial data for the IRD are known. Here, as an example, initial conditions for the components in the model equation of COVID-19, are taken from the real data in Egypt. The results of susceptible, infected, recovered and deceased people are computed. The comparison between the computed results and the real data shows an agreement up to a relative error 1 0 - 3 . On the other hand it is remarked that locking-down plays a dominant role in decreasing the number of infected people. The equilibrium states are determined and it is found that they are stable. This reveals a relevant result that the COVID-19 can be endemic in the case of a disturbance in the number of the exposed people. A disturbance in the form of an increase in the exposed number, leads to an increase in the number of infected people. This result is, globally, valid. Furthermore, initial states control is analyzed, where region of initial conditions for infected and exposed is determined. We developed a software tool to interact with the model and facilitate applying various data of different local spaces.

15.
Transfusion ; 61(8): 2368-2373, 2021 08.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1219105

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Blood collection center (BCC) employees are essential workers during the COVID-19 pandemic. The employee callout rate, defined as the percentage of scheduled employees unable to report to work for any cause including COVID-19 illness or asymptomatic quarantine, was tracked to determine the impact of safety measures including social distancing, masks, enhanced disinfection protocols, and temperature screening. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: A contact tracing and quarantine program was implemented for all employees, followed by additional safety measures including social distancing, masks, enhanced disinfection protocols, and temperature screening. The weekly callout rate was tracked nationally for 19,517 BCC employees over 9 months, from March to December 2020. RESULTS: Weekly employee callout rates increased after implementation of the contact tracing program due to asymptomatic employees placed into COVID-19-related quarantine. Mobile collections callouts increased by nearly fivefold the pre-pandemic baseline within the first 4 weeks, peaking at 9.7% in early April. Peaks for fixed site collections (5.0%) and manufacturing (6.7%) occurred nearly simultaneously. Shortly after implementation of all safety measures, the weekly callout rate declined for all three employee groups and has remained relatively stable with a mean callout rate of 4.3% for mobile collections, 2.4% for fixed site collections, and 3.7% for manufacturing despite further increase in new COVID-19 cases in the United States. CONCLUSION: Callouts for BCC employees during the COVID-19 pandemic initially increased, but subsequently declined and stabilized after implementation of safety measures. Since multiple interventions were implemented simultaneously, it is not possible to determine the individual impact of each measure on callout rate.


Subject(s)
Blood Banks , Blood Donors , COVID-19/prevention & control , Communicable Disease Control , Contact Tracing , Health Personnel , Humans , Masks , Physical Distancing , Quarantine , SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification , United States
16.
Trop Dis Travel Med Vaccines ; 7(1): 12, 2021 May 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1215132

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: To assess the impact of the social isolation index on the number of infections and deaths by COVID-19 in the state of São Paulo (Brazil). METHODS: Daily isolation data, obtained through geolocation information by mobile phone, were evaluated together with the number of daily infections and deaths by COVID-19 in the state of São Paulo. The study was conducted from February 26 to May 19, 2020. The data were modeled through the vector autoregression (VAR) model. RESULTS: The isolation index has an effect of approximately 5% in variation in the number of infections, and 7% in the number of deaths. The impulse response function (IRF) caused a drop of 0.15% in the number of new cases/day, and 0.17% in the number of deaths/day following a shock in the isolation index. For both cases, this effect occurred 1 day after the shock and stabilized after 10 periods. An increase of 1% in the isolation index led to a reduction of 6.91% in new cases and 6.90% in the number of deaths. The 30 cumulative day reduction reached 22.72% in terms of transmission and 35.39% for deaths. CONCLUSIONS: The social isolation index is related to deaths and infections from SARS-CoV-2. Although distancing measures are accompanied with impacts on the economy and the emergence of other morbidities, the benefits caused by the reduction in the speed of contagion are significant. The adoption of distancing measures has a substantial impact on the number of infected individuals and deaths by COVID-19.

17.
South Afr J HIV Med ; 22(1): 1220, 2021.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1211983

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLWH) constitute a vulnerable population in view of their impaired immune status. At this time, the full interaction between HIV and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been incompletely described. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to explore the impact of HIV and SARS-CoV-2 co-infection on mortality. METHOD: We systematically searched PubMed and the Europe PMC databases up to 19 January 2021, using specific keywords related to our aims. All published articles on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and HIV were retrieved. The quality of the studies was evaluated using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale for observational studies. Statistical analysis was performed with Review Manager version 5.4 and Comprehensive Meta-Analysis version 3 software. RESULTS: A total of 28 studies including 18 255 040 COVID-19 patients were assessed in this meta-analysis. Overall, HIV was associated with a higher mortality from COVID-19 on random-effects modelling {odds ratio [OR] = 1.19 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.01-1.39], p = 0.03; I 2 = 72%}. Meta-regression confirmed that this association was not influenced by age (p = 0.208), CD4 cell count (p = 0.353) or the presence of antiretroviral therapy (ART) (p = 0.647). Further subgroup analysis indicated that the association was only statistically significant in studies from Africa (OR = 1.13, p = 0.004) and the United States (OR = 1.30, p = 0.006). CONCLUSION: Whilst all persons ought to receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, PLWH should be prioritised to minimise the risk of death because of COVID-19. The presence of HIV should be regarded as an important risk factor for future risk stratification of COVID-19.

18.
J Infect Public Health ; 14(7): 817-831, 2021 Jul.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1193398

ABSTRACT

Coronaviruses did not invite attention at a global level and responsiveness until the series of 2003-SARS contagion followed by year-2012 MERS plus, most recently, 2019-nCoV eruptions. SARS-CoV &MERS-CoV are painstaking, extremely pathogenic. Also, very evidently, both have been communicated from bats to palm-civets & dromedary camels and further transferred ultimately to humans. No country has been deprived of this viral genomic contamination wherever populaces reside and are interconnected. This study aimed to develop a mathematical model for calculating the transmissibility of this viral genome. The analysis aids the study of the outbreak of this Virus towards the other parts of the continent and the world. The parameters such as population mobility, natural history, epidemiological characteristics, and the transmission mechanism towards viral spread when considered into crowd dynamism result in improved estimation. This article studies the impact of time on the amount of susceptible, exposed, the infected person taking into account asymptomatic and symptomatic ones; recovered i.e., removed from this model and the virus particles existing in the open surfaces. The transition from stable phase to attractor phase happens after 13 days i.e.; it takes nearly a fortnight for the spread to randomize among people. Further, the pandemic transmission remains in the attractor phase for a very long time if no control measures are taken up. The attractor-source phase continues up to 385 days i.e., more than a year, and perhaps stabilizes on 386th day as per the Lyapunov exponent's analysis. The time series helps to know the period of the Virus's survival in the open sources i.e. markets, open spaces and various other carriers of the Virus if not quarantined or sanitized. The Virus cease to exist in around 60 days if it does not find any carrier or infect more places, people etc. The changes in LCEs of all variables as time progresses for around 400 days have been forecasted. It can be observed that phase trajectories indicate how the two variables interact with each other and affect the overall system's dynamics. It has been observed that for exposed and asymptomatically infected (y-z), as exposed ones (y) change from 0 to 100 the value of asymptomatically infected (z) increased upto around 58, at exposed ones (y)=100, asymptomatically infected (z) has two values as 58 and 10 i.e. follows bifurcation and as exposed ones (y) changes values upto 180, the value of asymptomatically infected (z) decreases to 25 so for exposed ones (y) from 100 to 180, asymptomatically infected (z) varies from 58 to 25 to 10 follows bifurcation. Also, phase structures of exposed-symptomatically infected (y-u), exposed-removed (y-v), exposed-virus in the reservoir (y-w), asymptomatically infected-removed (z-v), symptomatically infected-removed (u-v) specifically depict bifurcations in various forms at different points. In case of asymptomatically infected-virus in the reservoir (z-w), at asymptomatically infected (z)=10, the value of viruses in the reservoir (w)=50, then as asymptomatically infected (z) increases to upto around 60. At this point, removed ones (v) increase from 50 to 70 and asymptomatically infected (z) decrease to 20 i.e., crosses the same value twice, which shows its limiting is known as limit cycle behavior and both the values tend to decrease towards zero. It shows a closed-loop limit cycle. Today, there has been no scientific revolution in the development of vaccination, nor has any antiviral treatment been successful, resulting in lack of its medication. Based on the phases, time series, and complexity analysis of the model's various parameters, it is studied to understand the variation in this pandemic's scenario.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , SARS Virus , Humans , Nonlinear Dynamics , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2
19.
Heliyon ; 7(4): e06650, 2021 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1174257

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Outbreak of COVID-19 seems to have exacerbated across the globe, including Bangladesh. Scientific literature on the clinical data record of COVID-19 patients in Bangladesh is inadequate. Our study analyzes the clinical data of COVID-19 positive patients based on molecular identification and risk factor correlated with three variables (age, sex, residence) and COVID-19 prevalence in the four districts of Chattogram Division (Noakhali, Feni, Lakshmipur and Chandpur) with an aim to understand the trajectory of this pandemic in Chattogram, Southern Bangladesh. METHODS: A cross-sectional study is conducted in the context of RT-PCR-based COVID-19 positive 5,589 individuals diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 infection from the COVID-19 testing laboratory, Abdul Malek Ukil Medical College, Noakhali-3800, Bangladesh. For molecular confirmation of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), standard diagnostic protocols through real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) were conducted. Different patient demographics were analyzed using SPSS version 22 for exploring the relationship of three factors - age, sex, and residence with a cumulative number of COVID-19 positive cases and prevalence of COVID-19 in four districts in Chattogram division. The data was recorded between May to July, 2020. RESULTS: Among the three parameters, the present study revealed that 20-40 cohort had the highest incidence of infection rate (51.80%, n = 2895) among the different age groups. Among the infected individuals, 56.8% (n = 3177) were male and 43.2% (n = 2412) were female, denoting males being the most susceptible to this disease. Urban residents (52.7%, n = 2948) were more vulnerable to SARS-CoV-2 infection than those residing in rural areas (47.3%, n = 2641). The prevalence of COVID-19 positive cases among the four districts was recorded highest in the Noakhali district with 36.8% (n = 2057), followed by the Feni, Lakshmipur and Chandpur districts with 25.9% (n = 1448), 20.8% (n = 1163) and 16.5% (n = 921), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study presents a statistical correlation of certain factors linked to Bangladesh with confirmed COVID-19 patients, which will enable health practitioners and policy makers to take proactive steps to control and mitigate disease transmission.

20.
Future Healthc J ; 8(1): e60-e66, 2021 Mar.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1168124

ABSTRACT

Introduction and aim The World Health Organization has recognised the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on healthcare worker (HCW) mental health and wellbeing. Anticipating these effects locally, we developed strategies to support our team, to equip them to care for themselves as well as our patients. Methods We implemented a series of interventions to increase staff support, highlighting the importance of team and individual morale. We developed a team of peer supporters, encouraged sub-teams to debrief and disseminated general wellbeing advice. Results Feedback demonstrates that our interventions had a positive impact. Greater benefits were recognised by empowering sub-teams to develop their own wellbeing and support mechanisms. Conclusion A strategy to support HCW teams during a crisis is vital to enhance wellbeing. Interventions implemented within our team have supported the provision of high-quality patient care, innovation and research throughout the pandemic.

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