Age-dependent final size equation to anticipate mortality impact of COVID-19 in China

Before reopening society in December 2022, China had not achieved sufficiently high vaccination coverage among people aged 80 years and older, who are vulnerable to severe infection and death owing to COVID-19. Suddenly ending the zero-COVID policy was anticipated to lead to substantial mortality. To investigate the mortality impact of COVID-19, we devised an age-dependent transmission model to derive a final size equation, permitting calculation of the expected cumulative incidence. Using an age-specific contact matrix and published estimates of vaccine effectiveness, final size was computed as a function of the basic reproduction number, R0. We also examined hypothetical scenarios in which third-dose vaccination coverage was increased in advance of the epidemic, and also in which mRNA vaccine was used instead of inactivated vaccines. Without additional vaccination, the final size model indicated that a total of 1.4 million deaths (half of which were among people aged 80 years and older) were anticipated with an assumed R0 of 3.4. A 10% increase in third-dose coverage would prevent 30,948, 24,106, and 16,367 deaths, with an assumed second-dose effectiveness of 0%, 10%, and 20%, respectively. With mRNA vaccine, the mortality impact would have been reduced to 1.1 million deaths. The experience of reopening in China indicates the critical importance of balancing pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions. Ensuring sufficiently high vaccination coverage is vital in advance of policy changes. ©2023 the Author(s)

Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccines at Preventing Emergency Department or Urgent Care Encounters and Hospitalizations Among Immunocompromised Adults: An Observational Study of Real-World Data Across 10 US States from August-December 2021

Background Immunocompromised (IC) persons are at increased risk for severe COVID-19 outcomes and are less protected by 1-2 COVID-19 vaccine doses than are immunocompetent (non-IC) persons. We compared vaccine effectiveness (VE) against medically attended COVID-19 of 2-3 mRNA and 1-2 viral-vector vaccine doses between IC and non-IC adults. Methods Using a test-negative design among eight VISION Network sites, VE against laboratory-confirmed COVID-19–associated emergency department (ED) or urgent care (UC) events and hospitalizations from 26 August-25 December 2021 was estimated separately among IC and non-IC adults and among specific IC condition subgroups. Vaccination status was defined using number and timing of doses. VE for each status (versus unvaccinated) was adjusted for age, geography, time, prior positive test result, and local SARS-CoV-2 circulation. Results We analyzed 8,848 ED/UC events and 18,843 hospitalizations among IC patients and 200,071 ED/UC events and 70,882 hospitalizations among non-IC patients. Among IC patients, 3-dose mRNA VE against ED/UC (73% [95% CI: 64-80]) and hospitalization (81% [95% CI: 76-86]) was lower than that among non-IC patients (ED/UC: 94% [95% CI: 93-94];hospitalization: 96% [95% CI: 95-97]). Similar patterns were observed for viral-vector vaccines. Transplant recipients had lower VE than other IC subgroups. Conclusions During B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant predominance, IC adults received moderate protection against COVID-19–associated medical events from three mRNA doses, or one viral-vector dose plus a second dose of any product. However, protection was lower in IC versus non-IC patients, especially among transplant recipients, underscoring the need for additional protection among IC adults.

SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Effectiveness against Omicron Variant in Infection-Naive Population, Australia, 2022.

SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Western Australia, Australia, was negligible until a wave of Omicron variant infections emerged in February 2022, when >90% of adults had been vaccinated. This unique pandemic enabled assessment of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine effectiveness (VE) without potential interference from background immunity from prior infection. We matched 188,950 persons who had a positive PCR test result during February-May 2022 to negative controls by age, week of test, and other possible confounders. Overall, 3-dose VE was 42.0% against infection and 81.7% against hospitalization or death. A primary series of 2 viral-vectored vaccines followed by an mRNA booster provided significantly longer protection against infection >60 days after vaccination than a 3-dose series of mRNA vaccine. In a population free from non-vaccine-derived background immunity, vaccines against the ancestral spike protein were ≈80% effective for preventing serious outcomes from infection with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant.

Timing and Magnitude of the Second Wave of the COVID-19 Omicron Variant - 189 Countries and Territories, November 2021 to February 2023.

What is already known about this topic?: The first nationwide wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), driven by the Omicron variant, has largely subsided. However, subsequent epidemic waves are inevitable due to waning immunity and the ongoing evolution of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. What is added by this report?: Insights gleaned from other nations offer guidance regarding the timing and scale of potential subsequent waves of COVID-19 in China. What are the implications for public health practice?: Understanding the timing and magnitude of subsequent waves of COVID-19 in China is crucial for forecasting and mitigating the spread of the infection.

Number of COVID-19 hospitalisations averted by vaccination: Estimates for the Netherlands, January 6, 2021 through August 30, 2022.

BACKGROUND: Vaccines against COVID-19 have proven effective in preventing COVID-19 hospitalisation. In this study, we aimed to quantify part of the public health impact of COVID-19 vaccination by estimating the number of averted hospitalisations. We present results from the beginning of the vaccination campaign ('entire period', January 6, 2021) and a subperiod starting at August 2, 2021 ('subperiod') when all adults had the opportunity to complete their primary series, both until August 30, 2022. METHODS: Using calendar-time specific vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates and vaccine coverage (VC) by round (primary series, first booster and second booster) and the observed number of COVID-19 associated hospitalisations, we estimated the number of averted hospitalisations per age group for the two study periods. From January 25, 2022, when registration of the indication of hospitalisation started, hospitalisations not causally related to COVID-19 were excluded. RESULTS: In the entire period, an estimated 98,170 (95 % confidence interval (CI) 96,123-99,928) hospitalisations were averted, of which 90,753 (95 % CI 88,790-92,531) were in the subperiod, representing 57.0 % and 67.9 % of all estimated hospital admissions. Estimated averted hospitalisations were lowest for 12-49-year-olds and highest for 70-79-year-olds. More admissions were averted in the Delta period (72.3 %) than in the Omicron period (63.4 %). CONCLUSION: COVID-19 vaccination prevented a large number of hospitalisations. Although the counterfactual of having had no vaccinations while maintaining the same public health measures is unrealistic, these findings underline the public health importance of the vaccination campaign to policy makers and the public.

COVID-19 outbreak in a religious village community in Republic of Korea and risk factors for transmission.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to assess the scale and transmission patterns of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in a religious village community in South Korea, to determine the risk factors of transmission, and to evaluate vaccine effectiveness. METHODS: An epidemiological survey was conducted, and data were collected and analyzed from 602 villagers in the religious village community. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify the risk factors for COVID-19 transmission and to evaluate vaccine effectiveness. RESULTS: The outbreak attack rate was 72.1% (434/602). The attack rate was high among women in their 60s, the unemployed, residents living near religious facility (<500 m), and the unvaccinated. Age, the distance between religious facility and residences, and the absence of vaccination were identified as risk factors for transmission. Vaccine effectiveness was 49.0%, and the highest effectiveness was seen in the age group of 59 years or younger (65.8%). CONCLUSION: This village community was isolated, with little communication with the outside world. However, the frequency of close contact between residents was relatively high, contributing to the spread of COVID-19 in the village even with relatively short exposure. Vaccination rates in the village community were also lower than those in the general public. Public health authorities should consider the potential impact of cultural factors, including religion, that could lead to the exponential spread of COVID-19 in closed village communities.

The effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination against all-cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: The observation during the initial period of the cancellation of the "Dynamic Zero Policy" in mainland China.

AIMS: This study aims to assess the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination against all-cause death in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). METHODS: Subjects were patients with T2DM who were administered by general practitioner (GP). Use electronic exchange platform to obtain the information on COVID-19 vaccination, all-cause deaths and risk factors. Logistic regression models were used to calculate the odd ratio (OR) and 95% CI for the association between COVID-19 vaccination and mortality. The vaccine effectiveness (VE) was calculated as (1- adjusted OR) × 100%. RESULTS: A total of 26,916 subjects had 53.81%, 17.65%, and 23.43% coverage for the booster, full, and partial COVID-19 vaccination, reported 328 deaths and a mortality of 1.2%. The adjusted OR (95%CI) was 0.85(0.60-1.21) for those received partial vaccination, 0.31(0.22-0.43) for those received full vaccination, and 0.12(0.08-0.18) for those received booster vaccination, compared to the unvaccinated individuals. The VE (95%CI) was 88.00%(82.30-91.80) of booster vaccination, 69.30%(56.60-78.30) of full vaccination, and 17.60%(-17.10-42.00) of partial vaccination. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 vaccination could effectively prevent the all-cause death in patients with T2DM during the omicron variant outbreak period, after the cancellation of the "Dynamic Zero Policy" in mainland China.

Estimated vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron infections among health care workers and the general adult population in Norway, August 2021 - January 2022.

BACKGROUND: Health care workers (HCW) have a higher exposure to SARS-CoV-2 virus than other professionals and to protect both HCW and patients, HCW have been prioritized for vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 in many countries. Estimating the COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness among HCW is important to provide recommendations to protect risk groups. METHODS: We estimated vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infections using Cox proportional hazard models among HCW with comparisons in the general population, from 1 August 2021 to 28 January 2022. Vaccine status is specified as a time-varying covariate and all models incorporated explicit time and were adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities, county of residence, country of birth, and living conditions. Data from the adult Norwegian population (aged 18-67 years) and HCW workplace data (as registered 1 January 2021) were collated from the National Preparedness Register for COVID-19 (Beredt C19). RESULTS: Vaccine effectiveness was higher for Delta than for the Omicron variant in HCW (71 % compared to 19 %) as well as in non-HCW (69 % compared to -32 %). For the Omicron variant a 3rd dose provides significantly better protection against infection than 2 doses in both HCW (33 %) and non-HCW (10 %). Further, HCW seem to have better vaccine effectiveness than non-HCW for the Omicron, but not for the Delta variant. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccine effectiveness were comparable between HCW and non-HCW for the delta variant, but significantly higher in HCW than non-HCW for the omicron variant. Both HCW and non-HCW got increased protection from a third dose.

Waning effectiveness against COVID-19-related hospitalization, severe complications, and mortality with two to three doses of CoronaVac and BNT162b2: a case-control study.

BACKGROUND: This study aims to evaluate waning effectiveness against severe and fatal COVID-19 with two to three doses of CoronaVac/BNT162b2, where data are limited. METHODS: A case-control study included individuals aged ≥18 years, unvaccinated or received two to three doses of CoronaVac/BNT162b2, using electronic healthcare databases in Hong Kong. Those with first COVID-19-related hospitalization, severe complications, or mortality between 1 January and 15 August 2022 were defined as cases and matched with up-to-10 controls by age, sex, index date, and Charlson Comorbidity Index. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19-related outcomes was estimated at different time intervals from second and third-dose vaccination (0-13 up-to 210-240 days) using conditional logistic regression adjusted for comorbidities and medications. RESULTS: By 211-240 days after second dose, VE against COVID-19-related hospitalization reduced to 46.6% (40.7-51.8%) for BNT162b2 and 36.2% (28.0-43.4%) for CoronaVac, and VE against COVID-19-related mortality were 73.8% (55.9-84.4%) and 76.6% (60.8-86.0%). After third dose, VE against COVID-19-related hospitalization decreased from 91.2% (89.5-92.6%) for BNT162b2 and 76.7% (73.7-79.4%) for CoronaVac at 0-13 days, to 67.1% (60.4-72.6%) and 51.3% (44.2-57.5%) at 91-120 days. VE against COVID-19-related mortality for BNT162b2 remained high from 0-13 days [98.2% (95.0-99.3%)] to 91-120 days [94.6% (77.7-98.7%)], and for CoronaVac reduced from 0-13 days [96.7% (93.2-98.4%)] to 91-120 days [86.4% (73.3-93.1%)]. CONCLUSIONS: Significant risk reduction against COVID-19-related hospitalization and mortality after CoronaVac or BNT162b2 vaccination was observed for >240 and >120 days after second and third doses compared to unvaccinated, despite significant waning over time. Timely administration of booster doses could provide higher levels of protection.

Effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccines on preventing symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections and hospitalizations in Southwestern Alaska, January-December 2021.

The population in rural southwest Alaska has been disproportionately affected by COVID-19. To assess the benefit of COVID-19 vaccines, we analyzed data from the regional health system. We estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) during January 16-December 3, 2021, against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection after a primary series or booster dose, and overall VE against hospitalization. VE of a primary series against symptomatic infection among adult residents was 91.3% (95% CI: 85.7, 95.2) during January 16-May 7, 2021, 50.3% (95% CI, 41.1%-58.8%) during July 17-September 24, and 37.0% (95% CI, 27.8-45.0) during September 25-December 3, 2021; VE of a booster dose during September 25-December 3, 2021, was 92.1% (95% CI: 87.2-95.2). During the overall study period, VE against hospitalization was 91.9% (95% CI: 85.4-95.5). COVID-19 vaccination offered strong protection against hospitalization and a booster dose restored protection against symptomatic infection.

Relative Effectiveness of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccination and Booster Dose Combinations Among 18.9 Million Vaccinated Adults During the Early Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Omicron Period-United States, 1 January 2022 to 31 March 2022.

BACKGROUND: Small sample sizes have limited prior studies' ability to capture severe COVID-19 outcomes, especially among Ad26.COV2.S vaccine recipients. This study of 18.9 million adults aged ≥18 years assessed relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) in three recipient cohorts: (1) primary Ad26.COV2.S vaccine and Ad26.COV2.S booster (2 Ad26.COV2.S), (2) primary Ad26.COV2.S vaccine and mRNA booster (Ad26.COV2.S+mRNA), (3) two doses of primary mRNA vaccine and mRNA booster (3 mRNA). METHODS: We analyzed two de-identified datasets linked using privacy-preserving record linkage (PPRL): insurance claims and retail pharmacy COVID-19 vaccination data. We assessed the presence of COVID-19 diagnosis during January 1-March 31, 2022 in: (1) any claim, (2) outpatient claim, (3) emergency department (ED) claim, (4) inpatient claim, and (5) inpatient claim with intensive care unit (ICU) admission. rVE for each outcome comparing three recipient cohorts (reference: two Ad26.COV2.S doses) was estimated from adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Compared with two Ad26.COV2.S doses, Ad26.COV2.S+mRNA and three mRNA doses were more effective against all COVID-19 outcomes, including 57% (95% CI: 52-62) and 62% (95% CI: 58-65) rVE against an ED visit; 44% (95% CI: 34-52) and 54% (95% CI: 48-59) rVE against hospitalization; and 48% (95% CI: 22-66) and 66% (95% CI: 53-75) rVE against ICU admission, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated that Ad26.COV2.S + mRNA doses were as good as three doses of mRNA, and better than two doses of Ad26.COV2.S. Vaccination continues to be an important preventive measure for reducing the public health impact of COVID-19.

Effectiveness of an inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in children and adolescents: a large-scale observational study.

Background: Policymakers urgently need evidence to adequately balance the costs and benefits of mass vaccination against COVID-19 across all age groups, including children and adolescents. In this study, we aim to assess the effectiveness of CoronaVac's primary series among children and adolescents in Chile. Methods: We used a large prospective national cohort of about two million children and adolescents 6-16 years to estimate the effectiveness of an inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine (CoronaVac) in preventing laboratory-confirmed symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (COVID-19), hospitalisation, and admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) associated with COVID-19. We compared the risk of individuals treated with a complete primary immunization schedule (two doses, 28 days apart) with the risk of unvaccinated individuals during the follow-up period. The study was conducted in Chile from June 27, 2021, to January 12, 2022, when the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant was predominant but other variants of concern were co-circulating, including Omicron. We used inverse probability-weighted survival regression models to estimate hazard ratios of complete immunization over the unvaccinated status, accounting for time-varying vaccination exposure and adjusting for relevant demographic, socioeconomic, and clinical confounders. Findings: The estimated adjusted vaccine effectiveness for the inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in children aged 6-16 years was 74.5% (95% CI, 73.8-75.2), 91.0% (95% CI, 87.8-93.4), 93.8% (95% CI, 87.8-93.4) for the prevention of COVID-19, hospitalisation, and ICU admission, respectively. For the subgroup of children 6-11 years, the vaccine effectiveness was 75.8% (95% CI, 74.7-76.8) for the prevention of COVID-19 and 77.9% (95% CI, 61.5-87.3) for the prevention of hospitalisation. Interpretation: Our results suggest that a complete primary immunization schedule with the inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine provides effective protection against severe COVID-19 disease for children 6-16 years. Funding: Agencia Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo (ANID) Millennium Science Initiative Program and Fondo de Financiamiento de Centros de Investigación en Áreas Prioritarias (FONDAP).

BNT162b2 Effectiveness Against Delta and Omicron Variants of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Adolescents Aged 12-17 Years, by Dosing Interval and Duration.

BACKGROUND: Two- and 3-dose BNT162b2 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, including Delta and Omicron variants, was assessed among adolescents in Canada, where first and second doses were spaced longer than the manufacturer-specified 3-week interval. METHODS: Test-negative design estimated VE against laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection ≥14 days after vaccination among 12-17-year-olds in Quebec and British Columbia, Canada, between 5 September 2021 and 30 April 2022 (epidemiological weeks 36-17). VE was explored by the interval between first and second doses, time since the second dose, and with a third dose. RESULTS: The VE against Delta was ≥90% until at least 5 months after the second dose. The VE against Omicron decreased from about 65%-75% at 2-3 weeks to ≤50% by the third month after vaccination, restored to approximately 65% by a third dose. Although confidence intervals overlapped, VE against Omicron was about 5%-7% higher (absolute) when first and second doses were spaced ≥8 versus 3-4 weeks apart. CONCLUSIONS: In adolescents, 2 BNT162b2 doses provided strong and sustained protection against Delta but reduced and rapidly waning VE against Omicron. A longer interval between first and second doses and a third dose marginally improved Omicron protection.

Vaccine effectiveness of primary and booster COVID-19 vaccinations against SARS-CoV-2 infection in the Netherlands from July 12, 2021 to June 6, 2022: A prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: We estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) of primary and booster vaccinations against SARS-CoV-2 infection overall and in four risk groups defined by age and medical risk condition during the Delta and Omicron BA.1/BA.2 periods. METHODS: VAccine Study COvid-19 is an ongoing prospective cohort study among Dutch adults. The primary end point was a self-reported positive SARS-CoV-2 test from July 12, 2021 to June 06, 2022. The analyses included only participants without a previous SARS-CoV-2 infection based on a positive test or serology. We used Cox proportional hazard models with vaccination status as the time-varying exposure and adjustment for age, sex, educational level, and medical risk condition. RESULTS: A total of 37,170 participants (mean age 57 years) were included. In the Delta period, VE <6 weeks after the primary vaccination was 80% (95% confidence interval 69-87) and decreased to 71% (65-77) after 6 months. VE increased to 96% (86-99) shortly after the first booster vaccination. In the Omicron period, these estimates were 46% (22-63), 25% (8-39), and 57% (52-62), respectively. For the Omicron period, an interaction term between vaccination status and risk group significantly improved the model (P <0.001), with generally lower VEs for those with a medical risk condition. CONCLUSION: Our results show the benefit of booster vaccinations against infection, also in risk groups; although, the additional protection wanes quite rapidly.

Vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron infection and infectiousness within households in the Netherlands between July 2021 and August 2022.

INTRODUCTION: We aimed to estimate vaccine effectiveness against infection (VE-infection) and against further transmission (VE-infectiousness) in a household setting during Delta and Omicron. Knowing these effects can aid policy makers in deciding which groups to prioritize for vaccination. METHODS: Participants with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test were asked about COVID-19 vaccination status and SARS-CoV-2 testing of their household members one month later. VE-infection and VE-infectiousness was estimated using GEE logistic regression adjusting for age, vaccination status, calendar week and household size. RESULTS: 3,399 questionnaires concerning 4,105 household members were included. During the Delta-period, VE-infection of primary series was 47% (95% CI: -27%; 78%) and VE-infectiousness of primary series was 70% (95% CI: 28%; 87%). During the Omicron-period, VE-infection was -36% (95% CI: -88%; 1%) for primary series and -28% (95% CI: -77%; 7%) for booster vaccination. The VE-infectiousness was 45% (95% CI: -14%; 74%) for primary series and 64% (95% CI: 31%; 82%) for booster vaccination. DISCUSSION: Our study shows that COVID-19 vaccination is effective against infection with SARS-CoV-2 Delta and against infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron. Estimation of VE against infection with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron was limited by several factors. Our results support booster vaccination for those in close contact with vulnerable people to prevent transmission.