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1.
Int Breastfeed J ; 17(1): 65, 2022 09 01.
Article Dans Anglais | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2009435

Résumé

BACKGROUND: Human milk banks (HMBs) are essential facilities for the selection, collection, testing, transportation,storage, and distribution of DHM for special medical needs. The aim of this analysis was to analyze the operation status and data over the last 8 years of operation of the first human milk bank (HMB) in East China. METHODS: Data related to the costs, donors, donation, pasteurization, and recipients were extracted from the web-based electronic monitoring system of the HMB for the period August 1, 2013 to July 31, 2021. RESULTS: Over the 8 years of operation, 1,555 qualified donors donated 7,396.5L of qualified milk at a cost of ¥1.94 million($306,051), with the average cost per liter of donor human milk being ¥262.3($41.4). The donors were between 25 and 30 years of age, and the majority (80.1%) were primipara. All the donated milk was pasteurized and subjected to bacteriological tests before and after pasteurization: 95.4% passed the pre-pasteurization tests, and 96.3% passed the post-pasteurization tests. A total of 9,207 newborns received 5,775.2L of pasteurized donor milk. The main reason for the prescription of donor human milk was preterm birth. As a result of continuous quality improvements, January 2016 witnessed a significant increase in the volume of qualified DHM and the number of qualified donors. However, in 2020, as a result of the restrictions related to the COVID-19 pandemic, the volume of qualified DHM and the number of qualified donors decreased. CONCLUSIONS: Over its 8 years of operation, our HMB has made steady quality improvements in its screening and information processes. Continuous quality improvement is on ongoing need, along with recruiting more qualified donors and collecting donor human milk for vulnerable newborns.


Sujets)
, Naissance prématurée , Allaitement naturel , Analyse de données , Femelle , Humains , Nouveau-né , Lait humain , Pandémies
2.
The Journal of craniofacial surgery ; 33(5):1300-1302, 2021.
Article Dans Anglais | EuropePMC | ID: covidwho-1939919

Résumé

: To report 2 successfully managed cases of graft rejection with acellular porcine corneal stroma (APCS) transplantation in patients with fungal corneal ulcer. Two patients were diagnosed with fungal corneal ulcer and received APCS transplantation. Graft rejection developed due to the lost follow-up during the period of coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak. Amniotic membranes transplantation and cauterization of neovascularization was performed, respectively. The graft failure resolved successfully after the procedure. To the best of our knowledge, amniotic membranes transplantation and cauterization of new vessels are the firstly reported in treating APCS graft failure. Amniotic membranes transplantation or cauterization of neovascularization appear to be a safe and costeffective method for treating graft failure.

3.
Pakistan Journal of Medical Sciences Quarterly ; 38(5):1150, 2022.
Article Dans Anglais | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1918576

Résumé

Objectives: To study the application effect of negative pressure sealing drainage technology combined with silver ion sterilization nursing solution in the nursing of necrotizing fasciitis. Methods: Medical records of patients with necrotizing fasciitis, treated in our hospital from June 2019 to June 2021, were selected. Patients were retrospectively assigned into two groups based on the debridement method used: debridement with silver ion sterilization nursing solution Group-I, or debridement with negative pressure sealing drainage technology combined with silver ion sterilization nursing solution. Group-II. Wound healing, dressing change times, healing time, treatment cost and patient satisfaction in both groups were statistically compared. Results: The wound healing rate of patients in Group-II group was higher than that of Group-I on the 5th, 10th and 15th day after operation (P < 0.05). Dressing change times, healing time and treatment cost of patients in the Group-II were lower than those of Group-I (P < 0.05). Patient satisfaction in the Group-II was 91.4% (54 / 59), which was higher than that of Group-I (75.4% (40 / 53) (P < 0.05). Conclusions: Negative pressure sealing drainage technology combined with silver ion sterilization nursing solution in the nursing of necrotizing fasciitis is effective. It can promote wound healing, shorten the healing time, reduce the times of wound dressing change and treatment cost. It also improves the overall patient satisfaction, making it an efficient method in clinical application.

4.
SN applied sciences ; 4(6), 2022.
Article Dans Anglais | EuropePMC | ID: covidwho-1837920

Résumé

Surface ozone pollution has attracted extensive attention with the decreasing of haze pollution, especially in China. However, it is still difficult to efficiently control the pollution in time despite numbers of reports on mechanism of ozone pollution. Here we report a method for implementing effective control of ozone pollution through power big data. Combining the observation of surface ozone, NO2, meteorological parameters together with hourly electricity consumption data from volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emitting companies, a generalized additive model (GAM) is established for quantifying the influencing factors on the temporal and spatial distribution of surface ozone pollution from 2020 to 2021 in Anhui province, central China. The average R2 value for the modelling results of 16 cities is 0.82, indicating that the GAM model effectively captures the characteristics of ozone. The model quantifies the contribution of input variables to ozone, with both NO2 and industrial VOCs being the main contributors to ozone, contributing 33.72% and 21.12% to ozone formation respectively. Further analysis suggested the negative correlation between ozone and NO2, revealing VOCs primarily control the increase in ozone. Under scenarios controlling for a 10% and 20% reduction in electricity use in VOC-electricity sensitive industries that can be identified by power big data, ozone concentrations decreased by 9.7% and 19.1% during the pollution period. This study suggests a huge potential for controlling ozone pollution through power big data and offers specific control pathways. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42452-022-05045-5. Article Highlights Surface ozone pollution in central China was investigated during the prevalence of the COVID-19 (2020.1–2021.5) NO2 and industrial VOCs contributing 33.72% and 21.12% to ozone formation Potential controlling pathway was proposed Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42452-022-05045-5.

5.
Finance Research Letters ; : 102848, 2022.
Article Dans Anglais | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-1773324

Résumé

We investigate short and long-run effects of commodities and the EMVID indices in stocks. It pre-dominantly compares the magnitude of the effect in China and the USA and analyzes the differences utilizing the QARDL method. It becomes evident that the impacts of the EMVID and commodity indexes vary depending on the stock market developments. The short-run results reveal that the US stocks are negatively affected by the extreme quantiles, while almost all quantiles are negatively affected by commodity shocks in the long-run before pandemic. During the COVID-19 outbreak, the EMVID index is positively correlated with the stocks for both countries.

6.
EuropePMC;
Preprint Dans Anglais | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-327123

Résumé

Since the first report on November 24, 2021, the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant is now overwhelmingly spreading across the world. Two SARS-CoV-2 inactivated vaccines (IAVs), one recombinant protein subunit vaccine (PRV), and one adenovirus-vectored vaccine (AdV) have been widely administrated in many countries including China to pursue herd immunity. Here we investigated cross-neutralizing activities in 341 human serum specimens elicited by full-course vaccinations with IAV, PRV and AdV, and by various vaccine boosters following prime IAV and AdV vaccinations. We found that all types of vaccines induced significantly lower neutralizing antibody titers against the Omicron variant than against the prototype strain. For prime vaccinations with IAV and AdV, heterologous boosters with AdV and PRV, respectively, elevated serum Omicron-neutralizing activities to the highest degrees. In a mouse model, we further demonstrated that among a series of variant-derived RBD-encoding mRNA vaccine boosters, it is only the Omicron booster that significantly enhanced Omicron neutralizing antibody titers compared with the prototype booster following a prime immunization with a prototype S-encoding mRNA vaccine candidate. In summary, our systematical investigations of various vaccine boosters inform potential booster administrations in the future to combat the Omicron variant.

7.
EuropePMC; 2020.
Preprint Dans Anglais | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-325402

Résumé

Background: Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) has spread rapidly, with a growing number of cases confirmed around the world. This study explores the relationship of fasting blood glucose (FBG) at admission with mortality. Methods In this retrospective, single-center study, we analyzed the clinical characteristics of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Wu Han from 29 January 2020 to 23 February 2020. Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was performed to evaluate the relationship between FBG and mortality. Results A total of 107 patients were enrolled in our study. The average age was 59.49 ± 13.33 and the FBG at admission was 7.35 ± 3.13 mmol/L. There were 16 people died of COVID-19 with an average age 68.1 ± 9.5 and the FBG was 8.94 ± 4.76 mmol/L. Regression analysis showed that there were significant association between FBG and death (HR = 1.13, 95%CI: 1.02-1.24). After adjusting for covariables, the significance still exists. In addition, our result showed that FBG > 7.0 mmol/L or diabetic mellitus can significantly increase mortality after adjusting for the age and gender. Conclusions This study suggests that FBG at admission is an effective and reliable indicator for disease prognosis in COVID-19 patients.

8.
EuropePMC; 2020.
Preprint Dans Anglais | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-324309

Résumé

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a newly recognized illness that has spread rapidly all over the world. Severe hypoxemic respiratory failure from COVID-19 will bring high risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). Our study aims to identify in-hospital VTE risk and bleeding risk in COVID-19 patients. Methods We retrospectively studied 138 consecutively enrolled patients with COVID-19 and identified in-hospital VTE and bleeding risk by Padua Prediction Score and Improve bleed risk assessment model. The clinical data and features were analyzed in VTE patients. Results Our findings identified that 23 (16.67%) patients with COVID-19 were at high risk for VTE according to Padua prediction score, and 9(6.52%) patients were at high risk of bleeding for VTE prophylaxis according to Improve prediction score. Fifteen critically ill patients faced double high risk from thrombosis (Padua score more than 4 points in all 15[100%] patients) and hemorrhage (Improve score more than 7 points in 9[60.0%] patients). Thrombotic events were identified in four patients (2.9%) of all COVID-19 patients. All of them were diagnosed as deep vein thrombosis by ultrasound after 3 to 18 days after admission. Three (75.0%) were critically ill patients, which means the incidence of VTE among critically ill patients was 20%. One major hemorrhage was happened in critically ill patients during VTE treatment. Conclusion Critically ill patients with COVID-19 suffered both high risk of thrombosis and bleeding risks. More effective VTE prevention strategies based on an individual assessment of bleeding risks were necessary for critically ill patients with COVID-19.

9.
EuropePMC; 2020.
Preprint Dans Anglais | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-322528

Résumé

Background: Chest computed tomography (CT) is recognized as an important tool for COVID-19 severity assessment. As the number of affected patients increase rapidly, manual severity assessment becomes a labor-intensive task, and may lead to delayed treatment. Purpose: Using machine learning method to realize automatic severity assessment (non-severe or severe) of COVID-19 based on chest CT images, and to explore the severity-related features from the resulting assessment model. Materials and Method: Chest CT images of 176 patients (age 45.3$\pm$16.5 years, 96 male and 80 female) with confirmed COVID-19 are used, from which 63 quantitative features, e.g., the infection volume/ratio of the whole lung and the volume of ground-glass opacity (GGO) regions, are calculated. A random forest (RF) model is trained to assess the severity (non-severe or severe) based on quantitative features. Importance of each quantitative feature, which reflects the correlation to the severity of COVID-19, is calculated from the RF model. Results: Using three-fold cross validation, the RF model shows promising results, i.e., 0.933 of true positive rate, 0.745 of true negative rate, 0.875 of accuracy, and 0.91 of area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The resulting importance of quantitative features shows that the volume and its ratio (with respect to the whole lung volume) of ground glass opacity (GGO) regions are highly related to the severity of COVID-19, and the quantitative features calculated from the right lung are more related to the severity assessment than those of the left lung. Conclusion: The RF based model can achieve automatic severity assessment (non-severe or severe) of COVID-19 infection, and the performance is promising. Several quantitative features, which have the potential to reflect the severity of COVID-19, were revealed.

10.
EuropePMC; 2020.
Preprint Dans Anglais | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-321367

Résumé

Objectives: A pneumonia associated with 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV, subsequently named SARS-CoV2) emerged worldwide since December, 2019. We aimed to describe the epidemiological characteristics of 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Shaanxi province of China. Results: : 1. Among the 245 patients, 132 (53.9%) were males and 113 (46.1%) were females. The average age was 46.15±16.43 years, ranging from 3 to 89 years. 2. For the clinical type, 1.63% (4/245) patients were mild type , 84.90% (208/245) were moderate type, 7.76% (19/245) were severe type, 5.31% (13/245) were critical type and only 0.41% (1/245) was asymptomatic. 3. Of the 245 patients, 116 (47.35%) were input case, 114 (46.53%) were non-input case , and 15 (6.12%) were unknown exposure. 4. 48.57% (119/245) cases were family cluster , involving 42 families. The most common pattern of COVID-19 family cluster was between husband and wife or between parents and children.

11.
EuropePMC; 2021.
Preprint Dans Anglais | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-312693

Résumé

Background: To help government formulating epidemic control strategies and spreading Shenzhen's experience. Methods: 417 patients admitted to hospital with confirmed COVID-19 infection between 19 January and 21 February 2020 in Shenzhen, China.Observational study of COVID-19 outcomes using quality-assured public data from website of Shenzhen Municipal Health Commission and a COVID-19 diagnosis and treatment fixed-point hospital to transmission patterns and associated factors of sporadic and clustered COVID-19 cases and its critical time courses. Results: We Compared the characteristics of clustered and non-clustered cases, found the clustered cases differed significantly from non-clustered cases in age and exposure history. Moreover, we analyzed the time intervals between symptom onset and recovery for three clinical conditions and different stages of transmission patterns, found the time intervals between illness onset and hospital discharge for all patients were no more than 30 days. Finally, we analyzed disease severity conditions, severe patients spent 4-5 more days of hospitalization and medical intervention than moderate and mild patients did. Conclusions: The study confirms that severe patients spent 4-5 more days of hospitalization and medical intervention than moderate and mild patients did. Our results also provided robust evidence that timely and effective prevention measures were the key to quickly cut the transmission chains and prevent the transition from clustered transmission pattern to community transmission pattern.

12.
EuropePMC; 2020.
Preprint Dans Anglais | EuropePMC | ID: ppcovidwho-309285

Résumé

COVID-19 outbreak has rapidly evolved into a global pandemic. The impact of COVID-19 on patient journeys in oncology represents a new risk to interpretation of trial results and its broad applicability for future clinical practice. We identify key intercurrent events that may occur due to COVID-19 in oncology clinical trials with a focus on time-to-event endpoints and discuss considerations pertaining to the other estimand attributes introduced in the ICH E9 addendum. We propose strategies to handle COVID-19 related intercurrent events, depending on their relationship with malignancy and treatment and the interpretability of data after them. We argue that the clinical trial objective from a world without COVID-19 pandemic remains valid. The estimand framework provides a common language to discuss the impact of COVID-19 in a structured and transparent manner. This demonstrates that the applicability of the framework may even go beyond what it was initially intended for.

13.
Physics of fluids (Woodbury, N.Y. : 1994) ; 33(12), 2021.
Article Dans Anglais | EuropePMC | ID: covidwho-1602650

Résumé

The potential risk of spreading a virus during bus transportation motivates us to understand the aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and seek effective ways to protect passengers in a bus. In this paper, a typical scenario in which the virus spreads in a bus under a windless environment is numerically studied for further understanding of the spreading characteristics of aerosol transmission in an enclosed space. The air flow in the bus and the spreading processes of droplets with different open windows configurations are obtained and analyzed. The variations of droplet concentration in the air with time are examined and analyzed. In addition, the transient droplet concentration deposited on the passengers is also counted to analyze the potential contact transmission. The results indicate that opening a window next to an infected person shows an unsatisfactory performance in limiting droplet spreading range and reducing droplet concentration, eventually leading to a high risk of infection by aerosol transmission following contact transmission. In addition, opening multiple windows also shows an unsatisfactory result for removing droplets in a bus since the turbulence flow accelerates the spreading speed and expands the spreading range. In contrast, the droplets are removed from the indoor space of the bus quickly if a window is opened in the row in front of the infected person, which is beneficial for reducing aerosol and contact transmission in the bus. Furthermore, it is strongly recommended to avoid sitting in the row in front of the infected person where the highest droplet concentration can be observed.

14.
Preprint Dans Anglais | medRxiv | ID: ppmedrxiv-21262214

Résumé

BackgroundAlthough effective vaccines have been developed against COVID-19, the level of neutralizing antibodies (Nabs) induced after vaccination in the real world is still unknown. To evaluate the level and persistence of NAbs induced by two inactivated COVID-19 vaccines in China. Methods and findingsSerum samples were collected from 1,335 people aged 18 and over who were vaccinated with COVID-19 inactivated vaccine in Peking University Peoples Hospital from January 19 to June 23, 2021, for detection of COVID-19 antibodies. The WHO standard of SARS-CoV-2 NAbs was detected. The coefficients of variation between the detection results and the true values of the NAbs detected by the WHO standard were all lower than the WHO international standard 3% after the dilution of the original and the dilution of the theoretical concentrations of 500 IU/mL, 250 IU/mL, 125 IU/mL, 72.5 IU/mL, 36.25 IU/mL and 18.125 IU/mL. On day 11-70, the positive rate of NAbs against COVID-19 was 82% to 100%; From day 71 to 332, the positive rate of NAbs decreased to 27%. The level of NAbs was significantly higher at 3-8 Weeks than at 0-3 Weeks. There was a high linear correlation between NAbs and IgG antibodies in 1335 vaccinated patients. NAbs levels were decreased in 31 of 38 people (81.6%) at two time points after the second dose of vaccine. There was no significant difference in age between the group with increased and decreased neutralizing antibody levels ({chi}2 =-0.034, P>0.05). The positive rate of NAbs in the two-dose vaccine group (77.3%) was significantly higher than that in the one-dose group (18.1%), with statistical difference ({chi}2=312.590, P<0.001). A total of 206 people who were 11-70 days after receiving the second dose were tested and divided into three groups: 18-40 years old, 41-60 years old and >60 years old. The positive rates of NAbs in three groups (18-40 years old, 41-60 years old and >60 years old) were 95.14%, 78.43% and 81.8%, respectively. The positive rate of NAbs was significantly higher in 18-40 years old than in 41-60 years old ({chi}2=12.547, P <0.01). The titer of NAbs in 18-40 years old group was significantly higher than that in 41-60 years old group (t=-0.222, P <0.01). The positive rate of NAbs in male group (89.32%) was lower than in female (91.26%), but there was no significant difference ({chi}2=0.222, P >0.05). ConclusionsThe positive rate of NAbs was the highest from 10 to 70 days after the second dose of vaccine, and the positive rate gradually decreased as time went by. There was a high linear correlation between COVID-19 NAbs and IgM/IgG antibodies in vaccinators, suggesting that in cases where NAbs cannot be detected, IgM/IgG antibodies can be detected instead. The level of NAbs produced after vaccination was affected by age, but not by gender. The highest levels of NAbs were produced between shots 21 to 56 days apart, suggesting that 21 to 56 days between shots is suitable for vaccination. Author summaryO_ST_ABSWhy was this study done?C_ST_ABSO_LIAt present, the inactivated vaccines that have been approved to market in China have passed clinical trials to prove their effectiveness and safety. But the level of neutralizing antibodies induced by vaccination in the real world remains unclear. C_LIO_LISerological testing for neutralizing antibodies against COVID-19 is important for assessing vaccine and treatment responses and comparing multiple drug candidates. We assessed the levels of neutralizing antibodies produced in populations receiving inactivated vaccines and assessed the persistence of these vaccines in producing COVID-19 neutralizing antibodies in healthy adults. C_LI What did the researchers do and find?O_LIWe collected serum samples from 1,335 people aged 18 and above who had received COVID-19 vaccine in Peking University Peoples Hospital, and divided them into two groups according to one dose of inactivated vaccine and two doses of inactivated vaccine. C_LIO_LIOur study found that the positive rate of NAbs was 66.2% in adults who received one or two doses of inactivated vaccine and 77.3% in adults who received two doses of inactivated vaccine in the real world. C_LIO_LIFrom 11 to 70 days after the second dose of vaccine, the positive rate of neutralizing antibodies against COVID-19 was 82-100%; On days 71-332, the positive rate of neutralizing antibodies decreased to 27%. C_LIO_LIThe titer and the positive rate of NAbs in 18-40 years old group were significantly higher than that in 41-60 years old group. C_LI What do these findings mean?O_LIWhat is novel is we observed that in the real world, the positive rate of neutralization antibody was the highest at 10 to 70 days after the second vaccination, and with the extension of the vaccination time, the positive rate of antibody gradually decreased. Therefore, we recommend that the third dose of vaccine be administered at day 61 to day 70 for COVID-19 neutralizing antibodies levels. C_LIO_LIWe observed that there was a high linear correlation between COVID-19 neutralization antibodies and COVID-19 IgM/IgG antibodies in vaccinators, suggesting that in cases where NAbs cannot be detected, COVID-19 IgM/IgG antibodies can be detected instead. C_LIO_LIIn our manuscript, we found that the titer and positive rate of neutralizing antibodies in 18-40 years old group were higher than those in 41-60 years old group. The level of neutralizing antibodies produced after vaccination was affected by age, but not by gender. C_LIO_LIWe also observed that the highest levels of NAbs were produced between shots 21 to 35 days apart, suggesting that 21 to 35 days between shots is suitable for vaccination. C_LI

15.
Journal of Geographical Sciences ; 31(4):565-583, 2021.
Article Dans Anglais | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1182289

Résumé

Scientifically assessing the economic impact of major public health emergencies, containing their negative effects, and enhancing the resilience of an economy are important national strategic needs. The new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has, to date, been effectively contained in China, but the threat of imported cases and local risks still exist. The systematic identification of the virus’s path of influence and intensity is significant for economic recovery. This study is based on a refined multi-regional general equilibrium analysis model, which measures the economic and industrial impacts at different epidemic risk levels in China and simulates development trends and the degree of damage to industries and the economy under changes to supplies of production materials and product demand. The results show that, at the macroeconomic level, China’s GDP will decline about 0.4% to 0.8% compared to normal in 2020, with an average drop of about 2% in short-term consumption, an average drop in employment of about 0.7%, and an average increase in prices of about 0.9%. At the industry level, the epidemic will have the greatest short-term impact on consumer and laborintensive industries. For example, the output value of the service industry will fall 6.3% compared to normal. Looking at the impact of the epidemic on the industrial system, the province most affected by the epidemic is Hubei, which is the only province in China in the level-1 risk category. As the disease spread outward from Hubei, there were clear differences in the main industries that were impacted in different regions. In addition, simulation results of recovery intensity of regional economies under the two epidemic response scenarios of resumption of work and production and active fiscal stimulus policies show that an increase in fiscal stimulus policies produces a 0.3% higher rate of gross regional product growth but it causes commodity prices to rise by about 1.8%. Measures to resume work and production offer a wider scope for industrial recovery.

16.
Liver International ; 41(4):i, 2021.
Article Dans Anglais | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1138203

Résumé

The cover image is based on the Original Article Clinical characteristics of COVID‐19 patients with hepatitis B virus infection — a retrospective study by Rui Liu et al., https://doi.org/10.1111/liv.14774.

18.
CAplus; 2020.
Preprint | CAplus | ID: ppcovidwho-2063

Résumé

A review. Aromatic Chinese herbs has been used to prevent plague since ancient times, and traditional Chinese medicine has unique advantages in the prevention and treatment of epidemic disease. Corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is rampant, and the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China issued guidelines recommends treatment plans with integrated traditional Chinese and Western medicine. According to the traditional Chinese medicine treatment plan in the National COVID-19 Diagnosis and Treatment Plan (Trial Seventh Edition) of the National Health Commission, Chinese patent medicines or prescriptions containing more aromatic Chinese herbs are selected for prevention and treatment during the period of medical observation, clin. treatment and recovery of confirmed patients. Some local health committees or traditional Chinese medicine administrations also recommend a variety of other ways to use aromatic traditional Chinese herbs (external fumigation, moxibustion, wearing sachet, etc.) to prevent and cure COVID-19. The efficacy of "fragrance repels filth and reinforces vital qi" of aromatic Chinese herbs plays a pos. role in the prevention and treatment of COVID-19. It has become a consensus to use aromatic Chinese herbs to interfere with the occurrence and development of COVID-19. The unique properties, chem. composition and action mechanism of aromatic Chinese herbs are worthy of extensive and in-depth exptl. and clin. research, which can provide reference for the follow-utreatment of novel coronavirus and the development of corresponding drugs. Based on the theory of traditional Chinese medicine, this paper discusses the role of aromatic Chinese herbs in the prevention and treatment of COVID-19, and speculates the possible mechanism of its function, in order to provide a basis for attaching importance to the prevention and treatment of COVID-19.

19.
Preprint Dans Anglais | medRxiv | ID: ppmedrxiv-20152033

Résumé

As communities reopen following shelter-in-place orders, they are facing two conflicting objectives. The first is to keep the COVID-19 fatality rate down. The second is to revive the U.S. economy and the livelihood of millions of Americans. In this paper, a team of researchers from the Center on Stochastic Modeling, Optimization, & Statistics (COSMOS) at the University of Texas at Arlington, in collaboration with researchers from University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center and Harvard Medical School, has formulated a computationally-efficient optimization framework, referred to as COSMOS COVID-19 Linear Programming (CC19LP), to study the delicate balance between the expected fatality rate and the level of normalcy in the community. Given the disproportionate fatality characteristics of COVID-19 among those in different age groups or with an underlying medical condition or those living with crowding, the key to the CC19LP framework is a focus on "key contacts" that separate individuals at higher risk from the rest of the population. The philosophy of CC19LP lies in maximizing protection of key contacts, so as to shield high-risk individuals from infection. Given the lack of pharmaceutical solutions, i.e., a vaccine or cure, the CC19LP framework minimizes expected fatalities by optimizing the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions, namely COVID-19 testing; personal protective equipment; and social precautions, such as distancing, hand-washing, and face coverings. Low-risk individuals that are not key contacts, including most children, are unrestricted and can choose to participate in pre-pandemic normal activities, which eliminates the need for compliance across the entire population. Consequently, the CC19LP framework demonstrates optimal strategies for protecting high-risk individuals while reopening communities.

20.
Preprint Dans Anglais | medRxiv | ID: ppmedrxiv-20156430

Résumé

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is spreading rapidly all over the world. The transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic is still unclear, but developing strategies for mitigating the severity of the pandemic is yet a top priority for global public health. In this study, we developed a novel compartmental model, SEIR-CV(susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed with control variables), which not only considers the key characteristics of asymptomatic infection and the effects of seasonal variations, but also incorporates different control measures for multiple transmission routes, so as to accurately predict and effectively control the spread of COVID-19. Based on SEIR-CV, we predicted the COVID-19 epidemic situation in China out of Hubei province and proposed corresponding control strategies. The results showed that the prediction results are highly consistent with the outbreak surveillance data, which proved that the proposed control strategies have achieved sound consequent in the actual epidemic control. Subsequently, we have conducted a rolling prediction for the United States, Brazil, India, five European countries (the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, Germany, and France), southern hemisphere, northern hemisphere, and the world out of China. The results indicate that control measures and seasonal variations have a great impact on the progress of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our prediction results show that the COVID-19 pandemic is developing more rapidly due to the impact of the cold season in the southern hemisphere countries such as Brazil. While the development of the pandemic should have gradually weakened in the northern hemisphere countries with the arrival of the warm season, instead of still developing rapidly due to the relative loose control measures such as the United States and India. Furthermore, the prediction results illustrate that if keeping the current control measures in the main COVID-19 epidemic countries, the pandemic will not be contained and the situation may eventually turn to group immunization, which would lead to the extremely severe disaster of about 5 billion infections and 300 million deaths globally. However, if Chinas super stringent control measures were implemented from 15 July, 15 August or 15 September 2020, the total infections would be contained about 15 million, 32 million or 370 million respectively, which indicates that the stringent and timely control measures is critical, and the best window period is before September for eventually overcoming COVID-19. SignificanceCOVID-19 is now posing a huge threat to global public health. The key features such as asymptomatic infection and droplet or airborne transmission make COVID-19 more easily spread and more widely distributed around the world. It is an urgent need to explore the optimal intervention strategies and measures to contain the pandemic. Our novel SEIR-CV compartmental model considers the new features of COVID-19, exhibits the impact of the intervention strategies and seasonal variations, and thus can accurately predicts its trajectory in China and the rest of the world. Our research results suggest that control measures and seasonal variations have a great impact on the development of the COVID-19 pandemic, which can only be contained by stringent strategies during the best window period before September 2020 for eventually overcoming COVID-19, otherwise it would cause a severer global catastrophe.

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