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Preprint Dans Anglais | medRxiv | ID: ppmedrxiv-21254568


Vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection, but their effectiveness depends on coverage and adherence levels. We used scenario modeling to evaluate their effects on cases and deaths averted and herd immunity. NPIs and vaccines worked synergistically in different parts of the pandemic to reduce disease burden.

Preprint Dans Anglais | medRxiv | ID: ppmedrxiv-21251264


A key public health question during any disease outbreak when limited vaccine is available is who should be prioritized for early vaccination. Most vaccine prioritization analyses only consider variation in risk of infection and death by a single risk factor, such as age. We provide a more granular approach with stratification by demographics, risk factors, and location. We use this approach to compare the impact of different COVID-19 vaccine prioritization strategies on COVID-19 cases, deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) over the first 6 months of vaccine rollout, using California as a case example. We estimate the proportion of cases, deaths and DALYs averted relative to no vaccination for strategies prioritizing vaccination by a single risk factor and by multiple risk factors (e.g. age, location). We find that age-based targeting averts the most deaths (62% for 5 million individuals vaccinated) and DALYs (38%) of strategies targeting by a single risk factor and targeting essential workers averts the least deaths (31%) and DALYs (24%) over the first 6 months of rollout. However, targeting by two or more risk factors simultaneously averts up to 40% more DALYs. Our findings highlight the potential value of multiple-risk-factor targeting of vaccination against COVID-19 and other infectious diseases.

Preprint Dans Anglais | medRxiv | ID: ppmedrxiv-20114090


BackgroundFollowing early implementation of public health measures, San Francisco has experienced a slow rise and a low peak level of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases and deaths. Methods and FindingsWe included all patients with COVID-19 pneumonia admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) at the safety net hospital for San Francisco through April 8, 2020. Each patient had [≥]15 days of follow-up. Among 26 patients, the median age was 54 years (interquartile range, 43 to 62), 65% were men, and 77% were Latinx. Mechanical ventilation was initiated for 11 (42%) patients within 24 hours of ICU admission and 20 patients (77%) overall. The median duration of mechanical ventilation was 13.5 days (interquartile range, 5 to 20). Patients were managed with lung protective ventilation (tidal volume [≤]8 ml/kg of ideal body weight and plateau pressure [≤]30 cmH2O on 98% and 78% of ventilator days, respectively). Prone positioning was used for 13 of 20 (65%) ventilated patients for a median of 5 days (interquartile range, 2 to 10). Seventeen (65%) patients were discharged home, 1 (4%) was discharged to nursing home, 3 (12%) were discharged from the ICU, and 2 (8%) remain intubated in the ICU at the time of this report. Three (12%) patients have died. ConclusionsGood outcomes were achieved in critically ill patients with COVID-19 by using standard therapies for acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) such as lung protective ventilation and prone positioning. Ensuring hospitals can deliver sustained high-quality and evidence-based critical care to patients with ARDS should remain a priority.

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