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1.
Infect Dis Poverty ; 9(1): 76, 2020 Jun 23.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-611626

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: As COVID-19 makes its way around the globe, each nation must decide when and how to respond. Yet many knowledge gaps persist, and many countries lack the capacity to develop complex models to assess risk and response. This paper aimed to meet this need by developing a model that uses case reporting data as input and provides a four-tiered risk assessment output. METHODS: We used publicly available, country/territory level case reporting data to determine median seeding number, mean seeding time (ST), and several measures of mean doubling time (DT) for COVID-19. We then structured our model as a coordinate plane with ST on the x-axis, DT on the y-axis, and mean ST and mean DT dividing the plane into four quadrants, each assigned a risk level. Sensitivity analysis was performed and countries/territories early in their outbreaks were assessed for risk. RESULTS: Our main finding was that among 45 countries/territories evaluated, 87% were at high risk for their outbreaks entering a rapid growth phase epidemic. We furthermore found that the model was sensitive to changes in DT, and that these changes were consistent with what is officially known of cases reported and control strategies implemented in those countries. CONCLUSIONS: Our main finding is that the ST/DT Model can be used to produce meaningful assessments of the risk of escalation in country/territory-level COVID-19 epidemics using only case reporting data. Our model can help support timely, decisive action at the national level as leaders and other decision makers face of the serious public health threat that is COVID-19.

2.
Clin Infect Dis ; 2020 Jun 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-541180

RESUMO

The epidemic of novel coronavirus diseases was first reported in China in late December 2019 and has been brought under control after some two months in China. However, it has become a global pandemic and the number of cases and deaths continues to increase outside of China. We describe the emergence of the pandemic, detail the first 100 days of China's response as a Phase 1 Containment followed by Phase 2 Containment strategy, and briefly highlight areas of focus for the future. Specific, simple, and pragmatic strategies used in China for risk assessment, prioritization, and deployment of resources are described. Details of implementation, at different risk levels, of the traditional public health interventions are shared. Involvement of society in mounting a whole country response and challenges experienced with logistics and supply chains are described. Finally, the methods China is employing to cautiously re-start social life and economic activity are outlined.

3.
Lancet ; 2020 Jun 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-526930

RESUMO

COVID-19 was declared a pandemic by WHO on March 11, 2020, the first non-influenza pandemic, affecting more than 200 countries and areas, with more than 5·9 million cases by May 31, 2020. Countries have developed strategies to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic that fit their epidemiological situations, capacities, and values. We describe China's strategies for prevention and control of COVID-19 (containment and suppression) and their application, from the perspective of the COVID-19 experience to date in China. Although China has contained severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and nearly stopped indigenous transmission, a strong suppression effort must continue to prevent re-establishment of community transmission from importation-related cases. We believe that case finding and management, with identification and quarantine of close contacts, are vitally important containment measures and are essential in China's pathway forward. We describe the next steps planned in China that follow the containment effort. We believe that sharing countries' experiences will help the global community manage the COVID-19 pandemic by identifying what works in the struggle against SARS-CoV-2.

4.
Eur Heart J ; 41(22): 2058-2066, 2020 06 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-526907

RESUMO

AIMS: It remains unknown whether the treatment of hypertension influences the mortality of patients diagnosed with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). METHODS AND RESULTS: This is a retrospective observational study of all patients admitted with COVID-19 to Huo Shen Shan Hospital. The hospital was dedicated solely to the treatment of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China. Hypertension and the treatments were stratified according to the medical history or medications administrated prior to the infection. Among 2877 hospitalized patients, 29.5% (850/2877) had a history of hypertension. After adjustment for confounders, patients with hypertension had a two-fold increase in the relative risk of mortality as compared with patients without hypertension [4.0% vs. 1.1%, adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 2.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.17-3.82, P = 0.013]. Patients with a history of hypertension but without antihypertensive treatment (n = 140) were associated with a significantly higher risk of mortality compared with those with antihypertensive treatments (n = 730) (7.9% vs. 3.2%, adjusted HR 2.17, 95% CI 1.03-4.57, P = 0.041). The mortality rates were similar between the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) inhibitor (4/183) and non-RAAS inhibitor (19/527) cohorts (2.2% vs. 3.6%, adjusted HR 0.85, 95% CI 0.28-2.58, P = 0.774). However, in a study-level meta-analysis of four studies, the result showed that patients with RAAS inhibitor use tend to have a lower risk of mortality (relative risk 0.65, 95% CI 0.45-0.94, P = 0.20). CONCLUSION: While hypertension and the discontinuation of antihypertensive treatment are suspected to be related to increased risk of mortality, in this retrospective observational analysis, we did not detect any harm of RAAS inhibitors in patients infected with COVID-19. However, the results should be considered as exploratory and interpreted cautiously.


Assuntos
Anti-Hipertensivos/uso terapêutico , Betacoronavirus , Infecções por Coronavirus/mortalidade , Hipertensão/tratamento farmacológico , Pneumonia Viral/mortalidade , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , China/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/complicações , Infecções por Coronavirus/terapia , Feminino , Seguimentos , Humanos , Hipertensão/complicações , Hipertensão/mortalidade , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/complicações , Pneumonia Viral/terapia , Estudos Retrospectivos
6.
Pharmacol Res ; 157: 104854, 2020 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-177267

RESUMO

SARS-CoV-2 is a novel strain, causing a global pandemic since the end of 2019. The majority of patients showed nonspecific symptoms such as fever, dry cough, and fatigue. Most patients have a good prognosis while some with severe conditions could rapidly progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome, septic shock, metabolic acidosis, coagulation dysfunction, and even die. The exacerbation of the patient's condition may be due to a cytokine storm in the body. Effective targeted therapies including antiviral and immunization are urgently needed. Although many clinical trials are already underway and the majority of patients have received antiviral therapy based on medication experience with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), and preliminary results from some clinical trials, there are no antiviral drugs proven to be effective currently. We summarize the current therapeutic medicines used in the clinic, hope to be able to provide some implications for clinical medication.


Assuntos
Antivirais/uso terapêutico , Infecções por Coronavirus/tratamento farmacológico , Pneumonia Viral/tratamento farmacológico , Betacoronavirus/efeitos dos fármacos , China , Humanos , Pandemias
7.
N Engl J Med ; 382(13): 1199-1207, 2020 03 26.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-57

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The initial cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)-infected pneumonia (NCIP) occurred in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019 and January 2020. We analyzed data on the first 425 confirmed cases in Wuhan to determine the epidemiologic characteristics of NCIP. METHODS: We collected information on demographic characteristics, exposure history, and illness timelines of laboratory-confirmed cases of NCIP that had been reported by January 22, 2020. We described characteristics of the cases and estimated the key epidemiologic time-delay distributions. In the early period of exponential growth, we estimated the epidemic doubling time and the basic reproductive number. RESULTS: Among the first 425 patients with confirmed NCIP, the median age was 59 years and 56% were male. The majority of cases (55%) with onset before January 1, 2020, were linked to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, as compared with 8.6% of the subsequent cases. The mean incubation period was 5.2 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1 to 7.0), with the 95th percentile of the distribution at 12.5 days. In its early stages, the epidemic doubled in size every 7.4 days. With a mean serial interval of 7.5 days (95% CI, 5.3 to 19), the basic reproductive number was estimated to be 2.2 (95% CI, 1.4 to 3.9). CONCLUSIONS: On the basis of this information, there is evidence that human-to-human transmission has occurred among close contacts since the middle of December 2019. Considerable efforts to reduce transmission will be required to control outbreaks if similar dynamics apply elsewhere. Measures to prevent or reduce transmission should be implemented in populations at risk. (Funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China and others.).


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Transmissão de Doença Infecciosa/estatística & dados numéricos , Epidemias , Período de Incubação de Doenças Infecciosas , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Betacoronavirus/genética , China/epidemiologia , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Infecções por Coronavirus/virologia , Transmissão de Doença Infecciosa/prevenção & controle , Epidemias/prevenção & controle , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/virologia , Reação em Cadeia da Polimerase , Adulto Jovem
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