State-specific projection of COVID-19 infection in the United States and evaluation of three major control measures.
Sci Rep
; 10(1): 22429, 2020 12 30.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1003318
ABSTRACT
Most models of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States do not consider geographic variation and spatial interaction. In this research, we developed a travel-network-based susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) mathematical compartmental model system that characterizes infections by state and incorporates inflows and outflows of interstate travelers. Modeling reveals that curbing interstate travel when the disease is already widespread will make little difference. Meanwhile, increased testing capacity (facilitating early identification of infected people and quick isolation) and strict social-distancing and self-quarantine rules are most effective in abating the outbreak. The modeling has also produced state-specific information. For example, for New York and Michigan, isolation of persons exposed to the virus needs to be imposed within 2 days to prevent a broad outbreak, whereas for other states this period can be 3.6 days. This model could be used to determine resources needed before safely lifting state policies on social distancing.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Primary Prevention
/
Communicable Disease Control
/
COVID-19 Testing
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Diagnostic study
/
Experimental Studies
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
North America
Language:
English
Journal:
Sci Rep
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S41598-020-80044-3
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