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State-specific projection of COVID-19 infection in the United States and evaluation of three major control measures.
Chen, Shi; Li, Qin; Gao, Song; Kang, Yuhao; Shi, Xun.
  • Chen S; Department of Mathematics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, 53706, USA.
  • Li Q; Department of Mathematics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, 53706, USA. qinli@math.wisc.edu.
  • Gao S; GeoDS Lab, Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, 53706, USA. song.gao@wisc.edu.
  • Kang Y; GeoDS Lab, Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, 53706, USA.
  • Shi X; Department of Geography, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, 03755, USA.
Sci Rep ; 10(1): 22429, 2020 12 30.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1003318
ABSTRACT
Most models of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States do not consider geographic variation and spatial interaction. In this research, we developed a travel-network-based susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) mathematical compartmental model system that characterizes infections by state and incorporates inflows and outflows of interstate travelers. Modeling reveals that curbing interstate travel when the disease is already widespread will make little difference. Meanwhile, increased testing capacity (facilitating early identification of infected people and quick isolation) and strict social-distancing and self-quarantine rules are most effective in abating the outbreak. The modeling has also produced state-specific information. For example, for New York and Michigan, isolation of persons exposed to the virus needs to be imposed within 2 days to prevent a broad outbreak, whereas for other states this period can be 3.6 days. This model could be used to determine resources needed before safely lifting state policies on social distancing.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Primary Prevention / Communicable Disease Control / COVID-19 Testing / COVID-19 Type of study: Diagnostic study / Experimental Studies / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: Sci Rep Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41598-020-80044-3

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Primary Prevention / Communicable Disease Control / COVID-19 Testing / COVID-19 Type of study: Diagnostic study / Experimental Studies / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: Sci Rep Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41598-020-80044-3