Do stock markets love misery? Evidence from the COVID-19.
Financ Res Lett
; 42: 101923, 2021 Oct.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1009505
ABSTRACT
This study examines the impact of the change in the Barro Misery Index (BMI) and the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and deaths on the stock markets' returns and volatility. Based on a sample of 76 different countries, we find that an increase in BMI adversely affects the stock returns and increases stock volatility. We also find that an increase in BMI coupled with an increase in percentage cases of COVID-19 adversely affect stock returns and increases volatility. We find that the impacts of BMI on stock returns and volatility are driven by real GDP changes, unemployment rate, and long-term interest rate instead of inflation rates, especially for the developed countries. Our findings are consistent with Barro (1999), which indicates that the BMI represents a better measure relative to the original misery index in predicting the economic outcome, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. We also find that the impacts of BMI components on stock returns and volatility for the developed countries are different from the emerging markets.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Type of study:
Prognostic study
Language:
English
Journal:
Financ Res Lett
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
J.frl.2021.101923
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