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Fractal-fractional mathematical modeling and forecasting of new cases and deaths of COVID-19 epidemic outbreaks in India.
Abdulwasaa, Mansour A; Abdo, Mohammed S; Shah, Kamal; Nofal, Taher A; Panchal, Satish K; Kawale, Sunil V; Abdel-Aty, Abdel-Haleem.
  • Abdulwasaa MA; Department of Statistics, Dr. Babasaheb Ambedkar Marathwada University, Aurangabad, (M.S), India.
  • Abdo MS; Department of Mathematics, Dr. Babasaheb Ambedkar Marathwada University, Aurangabad, (M.S), India.
  • Shah K; Department of Mathematics, Hodeidah University, Al-Hodeidah, Yemen.
  • Nofal TA; Department of Mathematics, University of Malakand, Chakdara Dir(Lower), Khyber Pakhtunkhawa, Pakistan.
  • Panchal SK; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Science, Taif University, P.O. Box 11099, Taif 21944, Saudi Arabia.
  • Kawale SV; Department of Mathematics, Dr. Babasaheb Ambedkar Marathwada University, Aurangabad, (M.S), India.
  • Abdel-Aty AH; Department of Statistics, Dr. Babasaheb Ambedkar Marathwada University, Aurangabad, (M.S), India.
Results Phys ; 20: 103702, 2021 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1014789
ABSTRACT
Fractional-order derivative-based modeling is very significant to describe real-world problems with forecasting and analyze the realistic situation of the proposed model. The aim of this work is to predict future trends in the behavior of the COVID-19 epidemic of confirmed cases and deaths in India for October 2020, using the expert modeler model and statistical analysis programs (SPSS version 23 & Eviews version 9). We also generalize a mathematical model based on a fractal fractional operator to investigate the existing outbreak of this disease. Our model describes the diverse transmission passages in the infection dynamics and affirms the role of the environmental reservoir in the transmission and outbreak of this disease. We give an itemized analysis of the proposed model including, the equilibrium points analysis, reproductive number R 0 , and the positiveness of the model solutions. Besides, the existence, uniqueness, and Ulam-Hyers stability results are investigated of the suggested model via some fixed point technique. The fractional Adams Bashforth method is applied to solve the fractal fractional model. Finally, a brief discussion of the graphical results using the numerical simulation (Matlab version 16) is shown.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Prognostic study Language: English Journal: Results Phys Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.rinp.2020.103702

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Prognostic study Language: English Journal: Results Phys Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.rinp.2020.103702