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Development and external evaluation of predictions models for mortality of COVID-19 patients using machine learning method.
Li, Simin; Lin, Yulan; Zhu, Tong; Fan, Mengjie; Xu, Shicheng; Qiu, Weihao; Chen, Can; Li, Linfeng; Wang, Yao; Yan, Jun; Wong, Justin; Naing, Lin; Xu, Shabei.
  • Li S; Yidu Cloud Technology Inc., 8F, Health Work, No. 9 Building, No. 35 of Huayuan North Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100089 China.
  • Lin Y; Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Environment Factors and Cancer, School of Public Health, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, 350122 Fujian Province China.
  • Zhu T; Yidu Cloud Technology Inc., 8F, Health Work, No. 9 Building, No. 35 of Huayuan North Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100089 China.
  • Fan M; Yidu Cloud Technology Inc., 8F, Health Work, No. 9 Building, No. 35 of Huayuan North Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100089 China.
  • Xu S; Yidu Cloud Technology Inc., 8F, Health Work, No. 9 Building, No. 35 of Huayuan North Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100089 China.
  • Qiu W; Yidu Cloud Technology Inc., 8F, Health Work, No. 9 Building, No. 35 of Huayuan North Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100089 China.
  • Chen C; Yidu Cloud Technology Inc., 8F, Health Work, No. 9 Building, No. 35 of Huayuan North Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100089 China.
  • Li L; Yidu Cloud Technology Inc., 8F, Health Work, No. 9 Building, No. 35 of Huayuan North Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100089 China.
  • Wang Y; Yidu Cloud Technology Inc., 8F, Health Work, No. 9 Building, No. 35 of Huayuan North Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100089 China.
  • Yan J; Yidu Cloud Technology Inc., 8F, Health Work, No. 9 Building, No. 35 of Huayuan North Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100089 China.
  • Wong J; Disease Control Division, Ministry of Health Brunei, Bandar Seri Begawan, BB3910 Brunei.
  • Naing L; PAPRSB Institute of Health Sciences, Universiti Brunei Darussalam, Gadong, BE1410 Brunei.
  • Xu S; Department of Neurology, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China.
Neural Comput Appl ; : 1-10, 2021 Jan 05.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2324443
ABSTRACT
To predict the mortality of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We collected clinical data of COVID-19 patients between January 18 and March 29 2020 in Wuhan, China . Gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), logistic regression (LR) model, and simplified LR were built to predict the mortality of COVID-19. We also evaluated different models by computing area under curve (AUC), accuracy, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) under fivefold cross-validation. A total of 2924 patients were included in our evaluation, with 257 (8.8%) died and 2667 (91.2%) survived during hospitalization. Upon admission, there were 21 (0.7%) mild cases, 2051 (70.1%) moderate case, 779 (26.6%) severe cases, and 73 (2.5%) critically severe cases. The GBDT model exhibited the highest fivefold AUC, which was 0.941, followed by LR (0.928) and LR-5 (0.913). The diagnostic accuracies of GBDT, LR, and LR-5 were 0.889, 0.868, and 0.887, respectively. In particular, the GBDT model demonstrated the highest sensitivity (0.899) and specificity (0.889). The NPV of all three models exceeded 97%, while their PPV values were relatively low, resulting in 0.381 for LR, 0.402 for LR-5, and 0.432 for GBDT. Regarding severe and critically severe cases, the GBDT model also performed the best with a fivefold AUC of 0.918. In the external validation test of the LR-5 model using 72 cases of COVID-19 from Brunei, leukomonocyte (%) turned to show the highest fivefold AUC (0.917), followed by urea (0.867), age (0.826), and SPO2 (0.704). The findings confirm that the mortality prediction performance of the GBDT is better than the LR models in confirmed cases of COVID-19. The performance comparison seems independent of disease severity. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION The online version contains supplementary material available at(10.1007/s00521-020-05592-1).
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Experimental Studies / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Language: English Journal: Neural Comput Appl Year: 2021 Document Type: Article

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Experimental Studies / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Language: English Journal: Neural Comput Appl Year: 2021 Document Type: Article