Impact of population movement on the spread of 2019-nCoV in China.
Emerg Microbes Infect
; 9(1): 988-990, 2020 Dec.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-102084
ABSTRACT
Since Dec 2019, China has experienced an outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus, 2019-nCoV. A travel ban was implemented for Wuhan, Hubei on Jan 23 to slow down the outbreak. We found a significant positive correlation between population influx from Wuhan and confirmed cases in other cities across China (R2 = 0.85, P < 0.001), especially cities in Hubei (R2 = 0.88, P < 0.001). Removing the travel restriction would have increased 118% (91%-172%) of the overall cases for the coming week, and a travel ban taken three days or a week earlier would have reduced 47% (26%-58%) and 83% (78%-89%) of the early cases. We would expect a 61% (48%-92%) increase of overall cumulative cases without any restrictions on returning residents, and 11% (8%-16%) increase if the travel ban stays in place for Hubei. Cities from Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Capital Economic Circle regions are at higher risk.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Travel
/
Coronavirus Infections
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
Emerg Microbes Infect
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
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