Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 in 14.8 million individuals in Bahia, Brazil.
Nat Commun
; 12(1): 333, 2021 01 12.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1026820
ABSTRACT
COVID-19 is affecting healthcare resources worldwide, with lower and middle-income countries being particularly disadvantaged to mitigate the challenges imposed by the disease, including the availability of a sufficient number of infirmary/ICU hospital beds, ventilators, and medical supplies. Here, we use mathematical modelling to study the dynamics of COVID-19 in Bahia, a state in northeastern Brazil, considering the influences of asymptomatic/non-detected cases, hospitalizations, and mortality. The impacts of policies on the transmission rate were also examined. Our results underscore the difficulties in maintaining a fully operational health infrastructure amidst the pandemic. Lowering the transmission rate is paramount to this objective, but current local efforts, leading to a 36% decrease, remain insufficient to prevent systemic collapse at peak demand, which could be accomplished using periodic interventions. Non-detected cases contribute to a â½55% increase in R0. Finally, we discuss our results in light of epidemiological data that became available after the initial analyses.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pandemics
/
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
/
Models, Theoretical
Type of study:
Observational study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
South America
/
Brazil
Language:
English
Journal:
Nat Commun
Journal subject:
Biology
/
Science
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S41467-020-19798-3
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