Historical data series of COVID-19 in different countries

ABSTRACT

Objective: to examine cumulative cases of COVID-19 in Brazil, Spain, Italy, China, and USA. Method: in this ecological study, secondary data were used to produce time series of cumulative cases of COVID-19 over 28 days after the 100th case confirmed in each country (from Worldometer 2020 statistics). Linear, exponential, potential and logarithmic trend models were tested, and the best coefficient of determination (R²) was chosen. In Brazil, the trend line was segmented into days 1-14 and 15-28. Results: on day 100, the USA had the highest number of cases and Brazil, the lowest. The trend lines were mostly exponential, with highest growth rate in the USA. In Brazil, the growth trend was slower in the second period. Conclusion: the calculated trend lines showed a worse prognosis for the USA. In Brazil, the cumulative number of cases grew more slowly in the second period of the study. © 2020, Centro de Estudos da Faculdade de Enfermagem da UERJ. All rights reserved.