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Forecasting a Cyclical Downturn (Recession) in the US Economy Using a Mathematical Model of Hyman Minsky’s Theory of Financial Instability
Doklady. Mathematics ; 102(2):422-426, 2020.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1032681
ABSTRACT
By using the US economy as an example, the paper shows how the COVID-19 pandemic has changed its short-term dynamics, causing a deep crisis recession in 2020 rather than the expected short-term and shallow recession in 2022 caused by the inflation of the financial bubble during the credit expansion that followed the financial and economic crisis of 2008–2009. To predict the latter scenario, which is natural for the US economy, the authors first developed a mathematical model based on Hyman Minsky’s theory of financial instability, which can serve to manage the processes of credit expansion and contraction in an unstable economy.

Full text: Available Collection: Databases of international organizations Database: ProQuest Central Language: English Journal: Doklady. Mathematics Year: 2020 Document Type: Article

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Full text: Available Collection: Databases of international organizations Database: ProQuest Central Language: English Journal: Doklady. Mathematics Year: 2020 Document Type: Article