Modelling the transmission of infectious diseases inside hospital bays: implications for COVID-19.
Math Biosci Eng
; 17(6): 8084-8104, 2020 11 12.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1034694
Preprint
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This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
ABSTRACT
Healthcare associated transmission of viral infections is a major problem that has significant economic costs and can lead to loss of life. Infections with the highly contagious SARS-CoV-2 virus have been shown to have a high prevalence in hospitals around the world. The spread of this virus might be impacted by the density of patients inside hospital bays. To investigate this aspect, in this study we consider a mathematical modelling and computational approach to describe the spread of SARS-CoV-2 among hospitalised patients. We focus on 4-bed bays and 6-bed bays, which are commonly used to accommodate various non-COVID-19 patients in many hospitals across the United Kingdom (UK). We investigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infections among patients in non-COVID bays, in the context of various scenarios placing the initially-exposed individual in different beds, varying the recovery and incubation periods, having symptomatic vs. asymptomatic patients, removing infected individuals from these hospital bays once they are known to be infected, and the role of periodic testing of hospitalised patients. Our results show that 4-bed bays reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2 compared to 6-bed bays. Moreover, we show that the position of a new (not infected) patient in specific beds in a 6-bed bay might also slow the spread of the disease. Finally, we propose that regular SARS-CoV-2 testing of hospitalised patients would allow appropriate placement of infected patients in specific (COVID-only) hospital bays.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Cross Infection
/
Communicable Diseases
/
COVID-19 Testing
/
COVID-19
/
Hospitals
Type of study:
Diagnostic study
/
Observational study
/
Randomized controlled trials
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Europa
Language:
English
Journal:
Math Biosci Eng
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Mbe.2020410
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