Early relaxation of community mitigation policies and risk of COVID-19 resurgence in the United States.
Prev Med
; 145: 106435, 2021 04.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1042307
ABSTRACT
This study aimed to assess the impact of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) prevalence in the United States in the week leading to the relaxation of the stay-at-home orders (SAH) on future prevalence across states that implemented different SAH policies. We used data on the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases as of August 21, 2020 on county level. We classified states into four groups based on the 7-day change in prevalence and the state's approach to SAH policy. The groups included (1) High Change (19 states; 7-day prevalence change ≥50th percentile), (2) Low Change (19 states; 7-day prevalence change <50th percentile), (3) No SAH (11 states did not adopt SAH order), and (4) No SAH End (2 states did not relax SAH order). We performed regression modeling assessing the association between change in prevalence at the time of SAH order relaxation and COVID-19 prevalence days after the relaxation of SAH order for four selected groups. After adjusting for other factors, compared to the High Change group, counties in the Low Change group had 33.8 (per 100,000 population) fewer cases (standard error (SE) 19.8, p < 0.001) 7 days after the relaxation of SAH order and the difference was larger by time passing. On August 21, 2020, the No SAH End group had 383.1 fewer cases (per 100,000 population) than the High Change group (SE 143.6, p < 0.01). A measured, evidence-based approach is required to safely relax the community mitigation strategies and practice phased-reopening of the country.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Quarantine
/
Public Health
/
Risk Assessment
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
/
Randomized controlled trials
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
North America
Language:
English
Journal:
Prev Med
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
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