Reconstruction of Transmission Pairs for Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Mainland China: Estimation of Superspreading Events, Serial Interval, and Hazard of Infection.
Clin Infect Dis
; 71(12): 3163-3167, 2020 12 15.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1044767
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Knowledge on the epidemiological features and transmission patterns of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is accumulating. Detailed line-list data with household settings can advance the understanding of COVID-19 transmission dynamics.METHODS:
A unique database with detailed demographic characteristics, travel history, social relationships, and epidemiological timelines for 1407 transmission pairs that formed 643 transmission clusters in mainland China was reconstructed from 9120 COVID-19 confirmed cases reported during 15 January-29 February 2020. Statistical model fittings were used to identify the superspreading events and estimate serial interval distributions. Age- and sex-stratified hazards of infection were estimated for household vs nonhousehold transmissions.RESULTS:
There were 34 primary cases identified as superspreaders, with 5 superspreading events occurred within households. Mean and standard deviation of serial intervals were estimated as 5.0 (95% credible interval [CrI], 4.4-5.5) days and 5.2 (95% CrI, 4.9-5.7) days for household transmissions and 5.2 (95% CrI, 4.6-5.8) and 5.3 (95% CrI, 4.9-5.7) days for nonhousehold transmissions, respectively. The hazard of being infected outside of households is higher for people aged 18-64 years, whereas hazard of being infected within households is higher for young and old people.CONCLUSIONS:
Nonnegligible frequency of superspreading events, short serial intervals, and a higher risk of being infected outside of households for male people of working age indicate a significant barrier to the identification and management of COVID-19 cases, which requires enhanced nonpharmaceutical interventions to mitigate this pandemic.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
COVID-19
Type of study:
Prognostic study
Limits:
Adolescent
/
Adult
/
Aged
/
Child
/
Child, preschool
/
Humans
/
Infant
/
Male
/
Middle aged
/
Young adult
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
Clin Infect Dis
Journal subject:
Communicable Diseases
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Cid
Similar
MEDLINE
...
LILACS
LIS