The effect of the definition of 'pandemic' on quantitative assessments of infectious disease outbreak risk.
Sci Rep
; 11(1): 2547, 2021 01 28.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1052737
ABSTRACT
In the early stages of an outbreak, the term 'pandemic' can be used to communicate about infectious disease risk, particularly by those who wish to encourage a large-scale public health response. However, the term lacks a widely accepted quantitative definition. We show that, under alternate quantitative definitions of 'pandemic', an epidemiological metapopulation model produces different estimates of the probability of a pandemic. Critically, we show that using different definitions alters the projected effects of key parameters-such as inter-regional travel rates, degree of pre-existing immunity, and heterogeneity in transmission rates between regions-on the risk of a pandemic. Our analysis provides a foundation for understanding the scientific importance of precise language when discussing pandemic risk, illustrating how alternative definitions affect the conclusions of modelling studies. This serves to highlight that those working on pandemic preparedness must remain alert to the variability in the use of the term 'pandemic', and provide specific quantitative definitions when undertaking one of the types of analysis that we show to be sensitive to the pandemic definition.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Communicable Diseases
/
Disease Outbreaks
/
Pandemics
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
/
Qualitative research
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
Sci Rep
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S41598-021-81814-3
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