Pronóstico del número de casos confirmados y muertes por COVID-19 mediante el modelo de crecimiento logístico en los países sudamericanos

ABSTRACT

Abstract The objective of this study is to present long-term forecasts of the accumulated number of confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19 per million inhabitants from the first confirmed case to day 350 in each South American country, using the logistic growth model with three parameters. Comparing the forecasts of the number of confirmed cases and deaths, it was observed that Paraguay, Peru and Argentina will take longer to significantly reduce the number of confirmed cases and Argentina in the number of deaths. [...]Venezuela and Uruguay present the number of confirmed cases and deaths accumulated almost constantly, that is, there will be no significant increases during the following months. Keywords logistic growth model;COVID-19 SARS-COV2, Nonlinear Mixed Effects Models. 1.