Spatial variability in reproduction number and doubling time across two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea, February to July, 2020.
Int J Infect Dis
; 102: 1-9, 2021 Jan.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1060124
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES:
In South Korea, 13 745 cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) had been reported as of 19 July, 2020. To examine spatiotemporal changes in the transmission potential, we aimed to present regional estimates of the doubling time and reproduction number (Rt) for COVID-19 in the country.METHODS:
Daily series of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the most affected regions were extracted from publicly available sources. We employed established mathematical and statistical methods to investigate the time-varying reproduction numbers and doubling time for COVID-19 in Korea.RESULTS:
At the regional level, Seoul and Gyeonggi Province experienced the first peak of COVID-19 in early March, followed by a second wave in early June, withRt exceeding 3.0 and mean doubling time ranging from 3.6 to 10.1 days. As of 19 July, 2020, Gyeongbuk Province and Daegu had yet to experience a second wave of the disease. During the first wave, mean Rt for these areas reached 3.5-4.4, and doubling time ranged from 2.8 to 4.6 days.CONCLUSIONS:
Our findings support the effectiveness of control measures against COVID-19 in Korea. However, the easing of restrictions that had been imposed by the government in May 2020 facilitated a second wave in the greater Seoul area.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Communicable Disease Control
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Observational study
Limits:
Female
/
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
Int J Infect Dis
Journal subject:
Communicable Diseases
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
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