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The importance of supplementary immunisation activities to prevent measles outbreaks during the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya.
Mburu, C N; Ojal, J; Chebet, R; Akech, D; Karia, B; Tuju, J; Sigilai, A; Abbas, K; Jit, M; Funk, S; Smits, G; van Gageldonk, P G M; van der Klis, F R M; Tabu, C; Nokes, D J; Scott, Jag; Flasche, S; Adetifa, Imo.
  • Mburu CN; KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kilifi, Kenya. CMburu@kemri-wellcome.org.
  • Ojal J; Department of Infectious Diseases Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK. CMburu@kemri-wellcome.org.
  • Chebet R; KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kilifi, Kenya.
  • Akech D; Department of Infectious Diseases Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
  • Karia B; KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kilifi, Kenya.
  • Tuju J; KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kilifi, Kenya.
  • Sigilai A; KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kilifi, Kenya.
  • Abbas K; KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kilifi, Kenya.
  • Jit M; KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kilifi, Kenya.
  • Funk S; Department of Infectious Diseases Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
  • Smits G; Department of Infectious Diseases Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
  • van Gageldonk PGM; Department of Infectious Diseases Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
  • van der Klis FRM; Department of Immunosurveillance, Centre for Infectious Diseases Control, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
  • Tabu C; Department of Immunosurveillance, Centre for Infectious Diseases Control, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
  • Nokes DJ; Department of Immunosurveillance, Centre for Infectious Diseases Control, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
  • Scott J; KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kilifi, Kenya.
  • Flasche S; School of Life Sciences and Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER), University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.
BMC Med ; 19(1): 35, 2021 02 03.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1061076
Semantic information from SemMedBD (by NLM)
1. Immune response PROCESS_OF Human Age Group
Subject
Immune response
Predicate
PROCESS_OF
Object
Human Age Group
2. Immune response PROCESS_OF Human Age Group
Subject
Immune response
Predicate
PROCESS_OF
Object
Human Age Group
ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND:

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routine measles immunisation and supplementary immunisation activities (SIAs) in most countries including Kenya. We assessed the risk of measles outbreaks during the pandemic in Kenya as a case study for the African Region.

METHODS:

Combining measles serological data, local contact patterns, and vaccination coverage into a cohort model, we predicted the age-adjusted population immunity in Kenya and estimated the probability of outbreaks when contact-reducing COVID-19 interventions are lifted. We considered various scenarios for reduced measles vaccination coverage from April 2020.

RESULTS:

In February 2020, when a scheduled SIA was postponed, population immunity was close to the herd immunity threshold and the probability of a large outbreak was 34% (8-54). As the COVID-19 contact restrictions are nearly fully eased, from December 2020, the probability of a large measles outbreak will increase to 38% (19-54), 46% (30-59), and 54% (43-64) assuming a 15%, 50%, and 100% reduction in measles vaccination coverage. By December 2021, this risk increases further to 43% (25-56), 54% (43-63), and 67% (59-72) for the same coverage scenarios respectively. However, the increased risk of a measles outbreak following the lifting of all restrictions can be overcome by conducting a SIA with ≥ 95% coverage in under-fives.

CONCLUSION:

While contact restrictions sufficient for SAR-CoV-2 control temporarily reduce measles transmissibility and the risk of an outbreak from a measles immunity gap, this risk rises rapidly once these restrictions are lifted. Implementing delayed SIAs will be critical for prevention of measles outbreaks given the roll-back of contact restrictions in Kenya.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Measles Vaccine / Disease Outbreaks / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 / Measles Type of study: Cohort study / Observational study / Prognostic study Topics: Long Covid / Vaccines Limits: Adolescent / Child / Child, preschool / Female / Humans / Infant / Male / Infant, Newborn Country/Region as subject: Africa Language: English Journal: BMC Med Journal subject: Medicine Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S12916-021-01906-9

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Measles Vaccine / Disease Outbreaks / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 / Measles Type of study: Cohort study / Observational study / Prognostic study Topics: Long Covid / Vaccines Limits: Adolescent / Child / Child, preschool / Female / Humans / Infant / Male / Infant, Newborn Country/Region as subject: Africa Language: English Journal: BMC Med Journal subject: Medicine Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S12916-021-01906-9