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Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States.
Monod, Mélodie; Blenkinsop, Alexandra; Xi, Xiaoyue; Hebert, Daniel; Bershan, Sivan; Tietze, Simon; Baguelin, Marc; Bradley, Valerie C; Chen, Yu; Coupland, Helen; Filippi, Sarah; Ish-Horowicz, Jonathan; McManus, Martin; Mellan, Thomas; Gandy, Axel; Hutchinson, Michael; Unwin, H Juliette T; van Elsland, Sabine L; Vollmer, Michaela A C; Weber, Sebastian; Zhu, Harrison; Bezancon, Anne; Ferguson, Neil M; Mishra, Swapnil; Flaxman, Seth; Bhatt, Samir; Ratmann, Oliver.
  • Monod M; Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Blenkinsop A; Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Xi X; Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Hebert D; Foursquare Inc., New York, NY, USA.
  • Bershan S; Emodo, San Francisco, CA, USA.
  • Tietze S; Emodo, San Francisco, CA, USA.
  • Baguelin M; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Bradley VC; Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Chen Y; Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Coupland H; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Filippi S; Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Ish-Horowicz J; Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • McManus M; Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Mellan T; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Gandy A; Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Hutchinson M; Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Unwin HJT; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • van Elsland SL; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Vollmer MAC; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Weber S; Novartis Pharma AG, Basel, Switzerland.
  • Zhu H; Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Bezancon A; Emodo, San Francisco, CA, USA.
  • Ferguson NM; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Mishra S; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Flaxman S; Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK. oliver.ratmann@imperial.ac.uk s.bhatt@imperial.ac.uk s.flaxman@imperial.ac.uk.
  • Bhatt S; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK. oliver.ratmann@imperial.ac.uk s.bhatt@imperial.ac.uk s.flaxman@imperial.ac.uk.
  • Ratmann O; Section of Epidemiology, Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Denmark.
Science ; 371(6536)2021 03 26.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1061088
ABSTRACT
After initial declines, in mid-2020 a resurgence in transmission of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) occurred in the United States and Europe. As efforts to control COVID-19 disease are reintensified, understanding the age demographics driving transmission and how these affect the loosening of interventions is crucial. We analyze aggregated, age-specific mobility trends from more than 10 million individuals in the United States and link these mechanistically to age-specific COVID-19 mortality data. We estimate that as of October 2020, individuals aged 20 to 49 are the only age groups sustaining resurgent SARS-CoV-2 transmission with reproduction numbers well above one and that at least 65 of 100 COVID-19 infections originate from individuals aged 20 to 49 in the United States. Targeting interventions-including transmission-blocking vaccines-to adults aged 20 to 49 is an important consideration in halting resurgent epidemics and preventing COVID-19-attributable deaths.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Epidemics / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Topics: Vaccines Limits: Adolescent / Adult / Child / Child, preschool / Humans / Infant / Middle aged / Young adult Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Science.abe8372

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Epidemics / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Topics: Vaccines Limits: Adolescent / Adult / Child / Child, preschool / Humans / Infant / Middle aged / Young adult Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Science.abe8372