Systems Dynamics Modeling of Pandemic Influenza for Strategic Policy Development: a Simulation-Based Analysis of the COVID-19 Case
Process Integration and Optimization for Sustainability
; 2021.
Article
in English
| Scopus | ID: covidwho-1061590
ABSTRACT
The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a truly wicked problem which has remained a stubborn issue plaguing multiple countries worldwide. The continuously increasing number of infections and deaths has driven several countries to implement control and response strategies including community lockdowns, physical distancing, and travel bans with different levels of success. However, a disease outbreak and the corresponding policies can cause disastrous economic consequences due to business closures and risk minimization behaviors. This paper develops a system dynamics framework of a disease outbreak system covering various policies to evaluate their effectiveness in mitigating transmission and the resulting economic burden. The system dynamics modeling approach captures the relationships, feedbacks, and delays in such a system, revealing meaningful insights on the dynamics of several response strategies. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. part of Springer Nature.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Databases of international organizations
Database:
Scopus
Language:
English
Journal:
Process Integration and Optimization for Sustainability
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
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