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Impact of climatic, demographic and disease control factors on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in large cities worldwide.
Metelmann, Soeren; Pattni, Karan; Brierley, Liam; Cavalerie, Lisa; Caminade, Cyril; Blagrove, Marcus S C; Turner, Joanne; Sharkey, Kieran J; Baylis, Matthew.
  • Metelmann S; Department of Evolution, Ecology and Behaviour, Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Brownlow Hill, Liverpool L3 5RF, UK.
  • Pattni K; Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections, University of Liverpool, UK.
  • Brierley L; Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Liverpool, Peach Street, Liverpool L69 7ZL, UK.
  • Cavalerie L; Department of Health Data Science, Institute of Population Health, University of Liverpool, Brownlow Street, Liverpool, L69 3GL, UK.
  • Caminade C; Department of Livestock and One Health, Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Brownlow Hill, Liverpool L3 5RF, UK.
  • Blagrove MSC; International Livestock Research Institute, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
  • Turner J; Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections, University of Liverpool, UK.
  • Sharkey KJ; Department of Livestock and One Health, Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Brownlow Hill, Liverpool L3 5RF, UK.
  • Baylis M; Department of Evolution, Ecology and Behaviour, Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Brownlow Hill, Liverpool L3 5RF, UK.
One Health ; 12: 100221, 2021 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1062535
Preprint
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Semantic information from SemMedBD (by NLM)
1. 2019 novel coronavirus CAUSES COVID-19
Subject
2019 novel coronavirus
Predicate
CAUSES
Object
COVID-19
2. 2019 novel coronavirus CAUSES COVID-19
Subject
2019 novel coronavirus
Predicate
CAUSES
Object
COVID-19
ABSTRACT
Approximately a year into the COVID-19 pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, many countries have seen additional "waves" of infections, especially in the temperate northern hemisphere. Other vulnerable regions, such as South Africa and several parts of South America have also seen cases rise, further impacting local economies and livelihoods. Despite substantial research efforts to date, it remains unresolved as to whether COVID-19 transmission has the same sensitivity to climate observed for other common respiratory viruses such as seasonal influenza. Here, we look for empirical evidence of seasonality using a robust estimation framework. For 359 large cities across the world, we estimated the basic reproduction number (R0) using logistic growth curves fitted to cumulative case data. We then assess evidence for association with climatic variables through ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. We find evidence of seasonality, with lower R0 within cities experiencing greater surface radiation (coefficient = -0.005, p < 0.001), after adjusting for city-level variation in demographic and disease control factors. Additionally, we find association between R0 and temperature during the early phase of the epidemic in China. However, climatic variables had much weaker explanatory power compared to socioeconomic and disease control factors. Rates of transmission and health burden of the continuing pandemic will be ultimately determined by population factors and disease control policies.
Keywords

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Observational study Language: English Journal: One Health Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.onehlt.2021.100221

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Observational study Language: English Journal: One Health Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.onehlt.2021.100221