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Evaluation of work resumption strategies after COVID-19 reopening in the Chinese city of Shenzhen: a mathematical modeling study.
Bai, Lu; Lu, Haonan; Hu, Hailin; Smith, M Kumi; Harripersaud, Katherine; Lipkova, Veronika; Wen, Yujin; Guo, Xiuyan; Peng, Wei; Liu, Chenwei; Shen, Mingwang; Shen, Alfred Chixiong; Zhang, Lei.
  • Bai L; China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi, 710061, PR China.
  • Lu H; AI Application Research Center, Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd. Shenzhen, Guangdong, 518000, PR China.
  • Hu H; AI Application Research Center, Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd. Shenzhen, Guangdong, 518000, PR China.
  • Smith MK; Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, University of Minnesota Twin Cities, Twin Cities, United States.
  • Harripersaud K; ICAP, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, United States.
  • Lipkova V; Medical Sciences Division, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
  • Wen Y; AI Application Research Center, Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd. Shenzhen, Guangdong, 518000, PR China.
  • Guo X; AI Application Research Center, Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd. Shenzhen, Guangdong, 518000, PR China.
  • Peng W; AI Application Research Center, Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd. Shenzhen, Guangdong, 518000, PR China.
  • Liu C; AI Application Research Center, Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd. Shenzhen, Guangdong, 518000, PR China.
  • Shen M; China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi, 710061, PR China.
  • Shen AC; AI Application Research Center, Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd. Shenzhen, Guangdong, 518000, PR China.
  • Zhang L; China-Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious Diseases, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi, 710061, PR China; Melbourne Sexual Health Centre, Alfred Health, Melbourne, Australia; Central Clinical School, Faculty of Medicine, Nursing and He
Public Health ; 193: 17-22, 2021 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1062574
ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES:

As China is facing a potential second wave of the epidemic, we reviewed and evaluated the intervention measures implemented in a major metropolitan city, Shenzhen, during the early phase of Wuhan lockdown. STUDY

DESIGN:

Based on the classic SEITR model and combined with population mobility, a compartmental model was constructed to simulate the transmission of COVID-19 and disease progression in the Shenzhen population.

METHODS:

Based on published epidemiological data on COVID-19 and population mobility data from Baidu Qianxi, we constructed a compartmental model to evaluate the impact of work and traffic resumption on the epidemic in Shenzhen in various scenarios.

RESULTS:

Imported cases account for most (58.6%) of the early reported cases in Shenzhen. We demonstrated that with strict inflow population control and a high level of mask usage after work resumption, various resumptions resulted in only an insignificant difference in the number of cumulative infections. Shenzhen may experience this second wave of infections approximately two weeks after the traffic resumption if the incidence risk in Hubei is high at the moment of resumption.

CONCLUSION:

Regardless of the work resumption strategy adopted in Shenzhen, the risk of a resurgence of COVID-19 after its reopening was limited. The strict control of imported cases and extensive use of facial masks play a key role in COVID-19 prevention.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Return to Work / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: Public Health Year: 2021 Document Type: Article

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Return to Work / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: Public Health Year: 2021 Document Type: Article