Mathematical model to analyse the effect of quarantine on spread and containment of COVID-19

ABSTRACT

Predictions, without mathematical approach and statistics appear bogus and simply drawn out of air. Hence applicability of mathematical modelling paves way for more authentic approach, the complexity of which depends on the number of parameters incorporated for use in the model. Analysing this, our work involved development of a model, labelled as SIQTRD model, which will signify its role and comprehensiveness in role prediction of quarantine in future containment of Covid19 disease as well as gain insights into the dynamics of disease transmission, based on the data available within a certain time frame. Predictions done this way in understanding the emergence effect and containment of epidemic are more effective and foster hind casting the event. The model predicts the number of active cases to reach 90,000-2,90,000 in India by mid-May to late June. In fact when the virus will enter the plateau phase, the number of active cases may monotonically increase even more depending on the relaxations implemented in lockdown and quarantine approach. This will be followed by a decreasing trend in the number of peak infective cases towards end August and after this the virus will fade out eventually although after effects may be visible in coming years. However the recovery rate may show an increasing trend due to the lockdown and quarantine policies in place providing ample time to the scientists, visionaries and medical practitioners to adopt implement and deploy anti-epidemic procedures including development of vaccines, testing kits etc. which will help out in dimming the disease. © 2020, Universitatea de Vest Vasile Goldis din Arad. All rights reserved.