Is Lockdown Effective in Limiting SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic Progression?-a Cross-Country Comparative Evaluation Using Epidemiokinetic Tools.
J Gen Intern Med
; 36(3): 746-752, 2021 03.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1064586
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
To date, the risk/benefit balance of lockdown in controlling severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic is controversial.OBJECTIVE:
We aimed to investigate the effectiveness of lockdown on SARS-CoV-2 epidemic progression in nine different countries (New Zealand, France, Spain, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, the UK, Sweden, and the USA).DESIGN:
We conducted a cross-country comparative evaluation using a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR)-based model completed with pharmacokinetic approaches. MAINMEASURES:
The rate of new daily SARS-CoV-2 cases in the nine countries was calculated from the World Health Organization's published data. Using a SIR-based model, we determined the infection (ß) and recovery (γ) rate constants; their corresponding half-lives (t1/2ß and t1/2γ); the basic reproduction numbers (R0 as ß/γ); the rates of susceptible S(t), infected I(t), and recovered R(t) compartments; and the effectiveness of lockdown. Since this approach requires the epidemic termination to build the (I) compartment, we determined S(t) at an early epidemic stage using simple linear regressions. KEYRESULTS:
In New Zealand, France, Spain, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, and the UK, early-onset stay-at-home orders and restrictions followed by gradual deconfinement allowed rapid reduction in SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals (t1/2ß ≤ 14 days) with R0 ≤ 1.5 and rapid recovery (t1/2γ ≤ 18 days). By contrast, in Sweden (no lockdown) and the USA (heterogeneous state-dependent lockdown followed by abrupt deconfinement scenarios), a prolonged plateau of SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals (terminal t1/2ß of 23 and 40 days, respectively) with elevated R0 (4.9 and 4.4, respectively) and non-ending recovery (terminal t1/2γ of 112 and 179 days, respectively) was observed.CONCLUSIONS:
Early-onset lockdown with gradual deconfinement allowed shortening the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic and reducing contaminations. Lockdown should be considered as an effective public health intervention to halt epidemic progression.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Quarantine
/
Communicable Disease Control
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
/
Randomized controlled trials
Topics:
Variants
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
North America
/
Europa
/
Oceania
Language:
English
Journal:
J Gen Intern Med
Journal subject:
Internal Medicine
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S11606-020-06345-5
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