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Age-specific mortality and immunity patterns of SARS-CoV-2.
O'Driscoll, Megan; Ribeiro Dos Santos, Gabriel; Wang, Lin; Cummings, Derek A T; Azman, Andrew S; Paireau, Juliette; Fontanet, Arnaud; Cauchemez, Simon; Salje, Henrik.
  • O'Driscoll M; Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK. mo487@cam.ac.uk.
  • Ribeiro Dos Santos G; Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France. mo487@cam.ac.uk.
  • Wang L; Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
  • Cummings DAT; Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France.
  • Azman AS; Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
  • Paireau J; Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France.
  • Fontanet A; Department of Biology and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
  • Cauchemez S; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
  • Salje H; Unit of Population Epidemiology, Division of Primary Care Medicine, Geneva University Hospitals, Geneva, Switzerland.
Nature ; 590(7844): 140-145, 2021 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1065895
ABSTRACT
Estimating the size of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the infection severity of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is made challenging by inconsistencies in the available data. The number of deaths associated with COVID-19 is often used as a key indicator for the size of the epidemic, but the observed number of deaths represents only a minority of all infections1,2. In addition, the heterogeneous burdens in nursing homes and the variable reporting of deaths of older individuals can hinder direct comparisons of mortality rates and the underlying levels of transmission across countries3. Here we use age-specific COVID-19-associated death data from 45 countries and the results of 22 seroprevalence studies to investigate the consistency of infection and fatality patterns across multiple countries. We find that the age distribution of deaths in younger age groups (less than 65 years of age) is very consistent across different settings and demonstrate how these data can provide robust estimates of the share of the population that has been infected. We estimate that the infection fatality ratio is lowest among 5-9-year-old children, with a log-linear increase by age among individuals older than 30 years. Population age structures and heterogeneous burdens in nursing homes explain some but not all of the heterogeneity between countries in infection fatality ratios. Among the 45 countries included in our analysis, we estimate that approximately 5% of these populations had been infected by 1 September 2020, and that much higher transmission rates have probably occurred in a number of Latin American countries. This simple modelling framework can help countries to assess the progression of the pandemic and can be applied in any scenario for which reliable age-specific death data are available.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Aging / Internationality / Pandemics / COVID-19 Serological Testing / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Limits: Adolescent / Adult / Aged / Child / Child, preschool / Female / Humans / Infant / Male / Middle aged Language: English Journal: Nature Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41586-020-2918-0

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Aging / Internationality / Pandemics / COVID-19 Serological Testing / SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Limits: Adolescent / Adult / Aged / Child / Child, preschool / Female / Humans / Infant / Male / Middle aged Language: English Journal: Nature Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41586-020-2918-0