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Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths.
Jombart, Thibaut; van Zandvoort, Kevin; Russell, Timothy W; Jarvis, Christopher I; Gimma, Amy; Abbott, Sam; Clifford, Sam; Funk, Sebastian; Gibbs, Hamish; Liu, Yang; Pearson, Carl A B; Bosse, Nikos I; Eggo, Rosalind M; Kucharski, Adam J; Edmunds, W John.
  • Jombart T; Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
  • van Zandvoort K; UK Public Health Rapid Support Team, London, UK.
  • Russell TW; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UK.
  • Jarvis CI; Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
  • Gimma A; Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
  • Abbott S; Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
  • Clifford S; Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
  • Funk S; Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
  • Gibbs H; Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
  • Liu Y; Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
  • Pearson CAB; Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
  • Bosse NI; Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
  • Eggo RM; South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa.
  • Kucharski AJ; Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Wellcome Open Res ; 5: 78, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2297273
ABSTRACT
We estimate the number of COVID-19 cases from newly reported deaths in a population without previous reports. Our results suggest that by the time a single death occurs, hundreds to thousands of cases are likely to be present in that population. This suggests containment via contact tracing will be challenging at this point, and other response strategies should be considered. Our approach is implemented in a publicly available, user-friendly, online tool.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Language: English Journal: Wellcome Open Res Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Wellcomeopenres.15786.1

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Language: English Journal: Wellcome Open Res Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Wellcomeopenres.15786.1